Latest news with #QuantMF
Time of India
5 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold prices may fall 12-15% in next 2 months, warns Quant Mutual Fund
Quant Mutual Fund warns investors that gold has peaked out and has the potential to correct by 12-15 per cent in dollar terms over the next two months. 'However, our medium-term and long-term views are equally constructive and we reiterate that a meaningful percentage of your portfolio should be dedicated towards precious metals,' it added. June is seasonally a bullish month for crude oil and downside is already exhausted, but upside could be meaningful if EM risk-off phase magnifies; a 10-12 per cent move higher will not surprise us, the monthly release said. It further read that with current global uncertainties, Bitcoin would be an ideal investment for high-risk appetite global investors but relative tightening of the global liquidity conditions will affect the crypto currencies in the short term. 'The medium-term and long-term outlook, however, remain constructive for crypto. High-risk appetite from youngsters is essential for sustained rallies in crypto and particularly across all digital assets,' it added. Although the DXY index has corrected quite meaningfully since January highs, it seems to be bottoming out at around current levels and a pullback rally is on the cards. Sharing the outlook of global equities, the fund house said that although the near-term pullback thesis has played out quite well, the medium-term trend is still weak and the next few months will be quite challenging for global equity and US equity in particular. 'Global equity is in a consolidation phase and not in bear market territory as perceived by disheartened investors. For a deep bear market hypothesis, we require tighter global liquidity and currently, global liquidity remains quite strong.' The cash levels have been deployed in select mid and small caps in most schemes, Quant Mutual Fund mentioned in its monthly release. The fund house added that the portfolio remains tilted towards large caps, and overall liquidity of the portfolio is good. The fund house also mentioned that select buying opportunities are visible in certain sectors such as PSU, Infrastructure, Hotels & Hospitality, Pharmaceuticals, Materials, Retail and Telecom. 'As we had been calling out repeatedly over the past few months, our 'Predictive Analytics' models were showing that the corrective phase in Indian equity was close to completion. We reiterate that select buying opportunities are visible in certain sectors, viz. PSU, Infrastructure, Hotels & Hospitality, Pharmaceuticals, Materials, Retail and Telecom,' Quant MF said in its release. It further recommended that, 'Investors worldwide, and in India, should aim to have a healthy mix of assets in their portfolio.' The predictive analysis of the fund house endorses the risk-on for India and risk-off for the US both on absolute and relative basis and global liquidity metrics have started deteriorating and the risk-off phase for the US will continue while liquidity is rising. 'The DM economy is already in recession, but it is now certain that EMs will outperform DMs in the medium-term,' it added. Quant Mutual Fund mentioned that with the right policy support, India stands a good chance of benefiting from global supply chain shifts in the medium-term, driven by higher US tariffs on Chinese goods, likely progress on a US-India trade deal and favourable domestic conditions and India has a large domestic market (as large as China's in 2006-07), which could be key to rapid manufacturing growth in years ahead. According to the release, Quant Mutual Fund is seeing a complete breakdown in the traditional relationships between various asset classes viz. Gold, currencies, yields, and real interest rates, the relevance of global central banks and policy makers is declining, as they are unable to manage rising debt and inflation, despite the rising depth and breadth of the global capital markets. The fund house further informed its investor base of nearly 95 lacs folios that the fund house was the first recipient of SEBI license for the Specialized Investment Fund (SIF) – the Long-Short fund in equity, debt and hybrid categories and this product category is suitable for sophisticated investors who are well-versed with financial markets and possess a relatively high-risk appetite and seeking more evolved investment strategies. 'Going forward, we will be unveiling a separate brand identity, separate website and communication portal specifically for SIFs. Over the coming weeks and months, we will dedicate our efforts towards educating the target audience about these products,' the fund house further hinted.
Mint
05-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Worried about volatility? Here's where to put your money in these uncertain times.
It's no exaggeration to say we are in turbulent times. The war in Ukraine continues unabated, the Israel-Gaza conflict is festering, Iran and its proxies are active in the Middle East, as is the US, Bangladesh has descended into chaos, and now Pakistan has provoked India. Donald Trump has also been stirring the pot with his tariffs and other pronouncements. Global markets have been in a tizzy ever since he assumed office. No one is sure where this trade war is going, which countries may benefit or lose, or whether the global economy will grow or enter a recession. These uncertainties are showing up in stock markets and other places. Gold has been going through the roof. Bond yields are still high, even though the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points in September 2024. The question on investors' lips is whether there is a type of portfolio than can help tide over these uncertain times. It is my endeavour to simplify this. My suggestion? Invest in just two mutual funds! Also read | Schengen, US visas: How to crack the application process, plan a smooth holiday Equity markets are volatile at the best of times. In these uncertain times, choppiness increases. While allocation to equities cannot be avoided, we can choose to diversify across asset classes. Also, it helps if asset levels can be adjusted appropriately, based on the gyrations of markets. A dynamic asset allocation fund, such as a balanced advantage fund, is thus good choice. In this type of fund, the equity-debt allocation is based on what's happening in stock markets. There are metrics to determine this, such as the price to earnings or price to book of the portfolio, which can then be rebalanced. The portfolio will also have options holdings to ensure equity taxation after a year of holding. The second suggestion is a multi-asset fund, which has equity, debt, commodities, real estate, and so on. This provides diversification, and the portfolio is realigned at predetermined intervals, based on certain formulas or algorithms. These two funds alone are good enough to help you weather the storm. Also read: Not many claim mental healthcare insurance. Here's why However, some investors may want a bit more nuance in their portfolios, with the ability to have specific exposure and control over the underlying assets. For those who want broad-based exposure to equity in their portfolio, an all-market index fund, based on Nifty 500, is a good choice. This encompasses a market capitalisation of over 92%. Gold is also gaining salience in light of geopolitical uncertainties, war and conflict in various regions, and the changing global order and financial system. Because of all these factors, gold buying by central banks has shot up tremendously over the past few years. Silver is another precious metal of note. Buying a gold and silver fund at this time would provide additional diversification and a hedge against volatile equities. Also read: After large-cap switch, Quant MF's Sandeep Tandon starts to add small-caps A debt fund may not be a favoured investment option these days, especially after the tax advantage it enjoyed was removed. However, debt funds still have plenty of positives. They are well-diversified, unlike fixed deposits and bonds, which have exposure to a single entity. They are also professionally managed, tax-efficient, and offer unparalleled liquidity and flexibility. The suggested subcategories here are corporate bond funds, banking and PSU debt funds and/or dynamic bond funds. Being invested in the right kind of fund is very important in turbulent times. These funds may be just what you need to navigate the ongoing uncertainty and emerge unscathed. The author is managing director & principal officer at Ladder7 Wealth Planners and the author of the book If God Was Your Financial Planner .
