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Irish Independent
07-08-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Almost 9,000 people lost their jobs in Ireland last month as uncertainty over tariffs grows
There were 143,100 people registered unemployed last month, compared with 134,500 in June. The seasonally adjusted rate of 4.9pc in July was up from 4.6pc in June, and on an annual basis it was up from the revised rate of 4.5pc in July 2024. There was a particularly noticeable uptick in joblessness numbers within the 15 to 24-year-old age cohort, with the youth unemployment rate of 12.2pc in July up from the 11.3pc recorded in June. Andrew Webb, chief economist at Grant Thornton Ireland, said the rise in the headline rate to 4.9pc is a warning light on the economic dashboard. 'After three months of rate stability, this sharp increase, especially the spike in youth unemployment to 12.2pc, suggests that business confidence may be softening,' he said. 'Rising global uncertainty and the growing risk of tariffs are making firms more cautious. That hesitation is now showing up in the jobs data. Ireland's labour market remains strong by historical standards, but policymakers should take this signal seriously. If ignored, today's flicker could become a more persistent fault.' Tariffs of between 10pc and 50pc were imposed by the US today on dozens of countries, while the White House and European Commission continued negotiations on a joint statement intended to add detail to their headline trade deal. The document will not be legally binding. As US president Donald Trump threatened a 100pc tariff on computer chips, the commission insisted that a 15pc rate will still apply to EU exports. 'We have a commitment for a 15pc across-the-board tariff ceiling,' said commission spokesman Olof Gill. 'That captures all products.' Talks about exempting certain goods are continuing, according to Mr Gill, but European wine and spirits will not escape the 15pc tariff that hits most imports from the EU to America from tomorrow. ADVERTISEMENT With the US accounting for about one third of all Irish exports, the impact of a long-term 15pc tariff is likely to be substantial, particularly as it includes pharma. The drag on economic growth is likely to suppress inflation, as was seen in the decrease to 1.7pc last month, mainly caused by lower prices for clothes. The continuing growth in wages could put upward pressure on prices, however. The Central Bank of Ireland has forecast that Compensation Per Employee will rise by 3.8pc on average from 2025 to 2027. In its most recent Quarterly Bulletin, the bank also pointed out that firms could react to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs by adjusting working hours rather than laying off staff. Average hours worked already remain below pre-pandemic levels across many sectors. The hiring platform Indeed said job postings on its Irish website increased slightly to 11pc in July, but are still down from the 19pc seen at the start of the year. 'This confirms a gradual and ongoing, but by no means worrying, cooling of the labour market,' said Jack Kennedy, a senior economist with Indeed. 'Even though the level of Irish job postings has reduced, the unemployment rate has remained below 5pc with employers still struggling to recruit staff in certain categories. This month marks the 42nd month in a row that the unemployment rate has been below 5pc.'
Irish Independent
07-08-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Over 12,000 people lost their jobs in Ireland last month
There were 143,100 people registered unemployed last month, compared with 134,500 in June. The seasonally adjusted rate of 4.9pc in July was up from 4.6pc in June, and on an annual basis it was up from the revised rate of 4.5pc in July 2024. There was a particularly noticeable uptick in joblessness numbers within the 15 to 24-year-old age cohort, with the youth unemployment rate of 12.2pc in July up from the 11.3pc recorded in June. Andrew Webb, chief economist at Grant Thornton Ireland, said the rise in the headline rate to 4.9pc is a warning light on the economic dashboard. 'After three months of rate stability, this sharp increase, especially the spike in youth unemployment to 12.2pc, suggests that business confidence may be softening,' he said. 'Rising global uncertainty and the growing risk of tariffs are making firms more cautious. That hesitation is now showing up in the jobs data. Ireland's labour market remains strong by historical standards, but policymakers should take this signal seriously. If ignored, today's flicker could become a more persistent fault.' Tariffs of between 10pc and 50pc were imposed by the US today on dozens of countries, while the White House and European Commission continued negotiations on a joint statement intended to add detail to their headline trade deal. The document will not be legally binding. As President Donald Trump threatened a 100pc tariff on computer chips, the commission insisted that a 15pc rate will still apply to EU exports. 'We have a commitment for a 15pc across-the-board tariff ceiling,' said commission spokesman Olof Gill. 'That captures all products.' Talks about exempting certain goods are continuing, according to Mr Gill, but European wine and spirits will not escape the 15pc tariff that hits most imports from the EU to America from tomorrow. With the US accounting for about one third of all Irish exports, the impact of a long-term 15pc tariff is likely to be substantial, particularly as it includes pharma. The drag on economic growth is likely to suppress inflation, as was seen in the decrease to 1.7pc last month, mainly caused by lower prices for clothes. The continuing growth in wages could put upward pressure on prices, however. The Central Bank of Ireland has forecast that Compensation Per Employee will rise by 3.8pc on average from 2025 to 2027. In its most recent Quarterly Bulletin, the bank also pointed out that firms could react to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs by adjusting working hours rather than laying off staff. Average hours worked already remain below pre-pandemic levels across many sectors. The hiring platform Indeed said job postings on its Irish website increased slightly to 11pc in July, but are still down from the 19pc seen at the start of the year. 'This confirms a gradual and ongoing, but by no means worrying, cooling of the labour market,' said Jack Kennedy, a senior economist with Indeed. 'Even though the level of Irish job postings has reduced, the unemployment rate has remained below 5pc with employers still struggling to recruit staff in certain categories. This month marks the 42nd month in a row that the unemployment rate has been below 5pc.'
Irish Independent
07-08-2025
- Business
- Irish Independent
Almost 9,000 people lost their jobs in Ireland last month
There were 143,100 people registered unemployed last month, compared with 134,500 in June. The seasonally adjusted rate of 4.9pc in July was up from 4.6pc in June, and on an annual basis it was up from the revised rate of 4.5pc in July 2024. There was a particularly noticeable uptick in joblessness numbers within the 15 to 24-year-old age cohort, with the youth unemployment rate of 12.2pc in July up from the 11.3pc recorded in June. Andrew Webb, chief economist at Grant Thornton Ireland, said the rise in the headline rate to 4.9pc is a warning light on the economic dashboard. 'After three months of rate stability, this sharp increase, especially the spike in youth unemployment to 12.2pc, suggests that business confidence may be softening,' he said. 'Rising global uncertainty and the growing risk of tariffs are making firms more cautious. That hesitation is now showing up in the jobs data. Ireland's labour market remains strong by historical standards, but policymakers should take this signal seriously. If ignored, today's flicker could become a more persistent fault.' Tariffs of between 10pc and 50pc were imposed by the US today on dozens of countries, while the White House and European Commission continued negotiations on a joint statement intended to add detail to their headline trade deal. The document will not be legally binding. As President Donald Trump threatened a 100pc tariff on computer chips, the commission insisted that a 15pc rate will still apply to EU exports. 'We have a commitment for a 15pc across-the-board tariff ceiling,' said commission spokesman Olof Gill. 'That captures all products.' Talks about exempting certain goods are continuing, according to Mr Gill, but European wine and spirits will not escape the 15pc tariff that hits most imports from the EU to America from tomorrow. With the US accounting for about one third of all Irish exports, the impact of a long-term 15pc tariff is likely to be substantial, particularly as it includes pharma. The drag on economic growth is likely to suppress inflation, as was seen in the decrease to 1.7pc last month, mainly caused by lower prices for clothes. The continuing growth in wages could put upward pressure on prices, however. The Central Bank of Ireland has forecast that Compensation Per Employee will rise by 3.8pc on average from 2025 to 2027. In its most recent Quarterly Bulletin, the bank also pointed out that firms could react to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs by adjusting working hours rather than laying off staff. Average hours worked already remain below pre-pandemic levels across many sectors. The hiring platform Indeed said job postings on its Irish website increased slightly to 11pc in July, but are still down from the 19pc seen at the start of the year. 'This confirms a gradual and ongoing, but by no means worrying, cooling of the labour market,' said Jack Kennedy, a senior economist with Indeed. 'Even though the level of Irish job postings has reduced, the unemployment rate has remained below 5pc with employers still struggling to recruit staff in certain categories. This month marks the 42nd month in a row that the unemployment rate has been below 5pc.'
IOL News
27-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
SA households drowning in debt, but repayments got a little easier
Discover how the latest SARB report reveals the state of South African household debt and the surprising improvements in financial health, despite rising debt levels Image: Pixabay The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) took a close look at the country's economy and found household debt is now almost two-thirds of what people earn, simply because debts are growing faster than income. But there's some good news from SARB's latest report: the amount you spend on paying off debt, compared to disposable income went down. This is, partially, thanks to a small interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points in January. SARB also pointed out, in its Thursday release of the Quarterly Bulletin, that the average household's overall financial health improved early in 2025. This is because the value of what people own grew more than what they owe. Specifically, rising stock prices and increasing house values helped boost people's savings and assets. The bulletin also details the performance of various sub sectors in terms of real gross value added (GVA) – which measures GDP without inflationary effects. In terms of economic sectors, that agriculture was a shining star, mining remains in the doldrums, manufacturing continues to decline, while retail, motor trade as well as tourism and accommodation subsectors gained during the first quarter. In addition to subdued demand from the electricity-intensive mining and manufacturing sectors, electricity generation was constrained by breakdowns at several of Eskom's generation units, resulting in the renewed implementation of electricity load-shedding. The contraction in the real output of the construction sector reflected lower civil construction and residential building activity. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ The tertiary sector – which includes all kinds of services like banking, shops, transport, personal care, education, and healthcare – grew a bit faster in early 2025. SARB reported that shops, car sales, tourism, and hotels saw improvements, but wholesale trade decreased. SARB also said that 'the expansion in the transport, storage and communication services sector was underpinned by increased activity in land freight and air transport as well as transport support services'. The finance, property, and business services sector also grew slightly in the first quarter of 2025, thanks to more activity in insurance, pension funds, and other financial support services. However, government services and personal services (like hairdressers or gyms) continued to shrink. IOL
IOL News
27-06-2025
- Business
- IOL News
South African households face uphill battle as finances remain strained
According to the Quarterly Bulletin released by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) on Thursday, growth in real gross domestic expenditure (GDE) eased to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 following an increase of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Image: Ayanda Ndamane/ Independent Newspapers. Household finances in South Africa are expected to remain strained on the back of accelerating unemployment rate and rising debt levels, resulting in slow expenditure trends. According to the Quarterly Bulletin released by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) on Thursday, growth in real gross domestic expenditure (GDE) eased to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 following an increase of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Real final consumption expenditure by households increased at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2025 but nevertheless contributed most to growth in real GDP. By contrast, real final consumption expenditure by the general government and gross fixed capital formation contracted further, alongside a further deaccumulation of real inventory holdings, albeit at a slower pace. 'Growth in real final consumption expenditure by households moderated notably in the first quarter of 2025, along with the slower pace of increase in the real disposable income of households and a sharp decline in consumer confidence,' said the Sarb. 'Real spending on durable and non-durable goods increased at a slower pace, while that on semi-durable goods remained unchanged and growth in real outlays on services accelerated.' This comes as the Consumer Confidence Index rebounded from the significant drop in the first quarter of 2025 from -20 to -10 in the second quarter. This was predominantly due to the resolution or improvement in earlier concerns including the reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) increase, lower stages of loadshedding, improved relations between the United States and South Africa, and the Government of National Unity (GNU) partners' commitment to working together. Momentum Investments chief economist, Sanisha Packirisamy, maintained a positive view on the consumer outlook despite the headwinds facing consumers. Packirisamy said this outlook was supported by the rebound in CCI following the sentiment shock in the first quarter. 'The rise in the unemployment rate in the first quarter, potential fuel price increases following the temporary spike in Brent crude oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict, and floods could weigh on consumer sentiment. However, reduced load shedding, a continuation in two-pot withdrawals, lower interest rates and a stable GNU, if it persists, could support consumer confidence,' she said. 'We forecast household consumption expenditure to grow by 1.8% in 2025. As the largest component of GDP, accounting for 67.7% in the first quarter, household consumption is central to our growth outlook and forms the cornerstone of our 1.2% GDP growth projection for 2025.' Meanwhile, the Sarb said household debt as a percentage of nominal disposable income increased from 62.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 62.7% in the first quarter of 2025 as household debt increased more than nominal disposable income. Households' cost of servicing debt relative to disposable income edged slightly lower over the same period, reflecting lower interest payments following the further 25 basis point reduction in the prime lending rate in January 2025. Households' net wealth increased in the first quarter of 2025 as the market value of total assets increased more than that of total liabilities. The value of assets was boosted by a notable increase in domestic share prices as the FTSE/JSE All-Share Index outperformed share price indices in developed markets in the first quarter of 2025, while the value of housing stock also increased further. Real gross fixed capital formation decreased by a further 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025, driven by reduced capital spending by private business enterprises, while capital outlays by public corporations and general government increased 'An increase in business confidence is imperative to drive investment and accordingly economic growth, with expectations for growth having eased notably this year to 0.9%,' said Investec economist, Lara Hodes. Nedbank economist, Johannes Matimba Khosa, said household finances were expected to remain relatively healthy in 2025 despite the expected uptick in inflation off a low base. Khosa said this, along with higher wage settlements in the public sector, will continue to support real personal disposable income. He said lower interest rates and withdrawal from the Two-Pot retirement system will also help reduce debt service costs. 'However, the recovery in household finances will be partly contained by uncertain employment prospects. Given excess capacity and a volatile global environment, companies will hesitate to expand operations,' Khosa said. 'The US tariffs, weak global demand, and subdued commodity prices will impact job creation in exportoriented industries. At the same time, growth in government employment will be contained by fiscal consolidation.' BUSINESS REPORT
