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Time of India
3 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
India's merchandise imports to grow twice than exports in current financial year: RBI Survey
Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel India's merchandise imports to grow by 2 times more than exports in the current financial year, highlighted a latest survey by RBI conducted the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators, Results of the 95th Round, released on survey findings showed that merchandise imports are likely to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2025-26, which is more than double the growth of merchandise stated "Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 1.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, during 2025-26"In the next year, 2026-27, the survey noted that the merchandise exports are projected to grow by 4.9 per cent and imports by 6.0 per cent, all in US dollar to this trade pattern, the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to stand at 0.8 per cent of GDP at current market prices for 2025-26. For the year 2026-27, CAD is projected to rise slightly to 0.9 per the overall economy, the survey showed that India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2025-26 and further by 6.7 per cent in 2026-27. This is below than the RBI's forecast of 6.5 per panelists forecast GDP growth to be in the range of 6.0 to 7.0 per cent for 2025-26 and 6.1 to 7.7 per cent for 2026-27. The highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth in the range of 6.0-6.9 per cent for 2025-26 and 6.5-6.9 per cent for terms of expenditure, real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2025-26 and 6.9 per cent in 2026-27. Similarly, real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in these two years, the inflation front, annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected at 3.1 per cent in 2025-26 and rise to 4.4 per cent in per survey, CPI inflation excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco, intoxicants, and fuel and light, is expected at 4.4 per cent in Q2 of 2025-26. It is projected to stay between 4.3-4.5 per cent in the following quarters.
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Indian households anticipate modest commodity price increases amid declining inflation expectations
Synopsis A recent RBI survey indicates Indian households anticipate moderate commodity price increases. Inflation expectations have decreased, with the median perception dropping to 7.2% in July. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted a more favorable inflation outlook for 2025-26, attributing it to base effects and monsoon progress. While fewer expect food price hikes, more anticipate increases in durable goods and service costs. Agencies Indian households expect only modest increases in commodity prices, showed the latest central bank survey on inflationary median perception on inflation in July declined by 50 basis points to 7.2% as compared with May 2025 round, reflecting in part the decline in consumer inflation to a six-year inflation expectations for the next three months and one year moderated by 60 bps and 50 bps respectively. One basis point is 0.01 latest survey was conducted during July 1-12, in 19 major cities, with 5,197 valid responses. RBI conducts the survey at bi-monthly intervals. It provides directional information on near-term inflationary pressures as expected by respondents and may reflect their own consumption patterns. The Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that inflation outlook for 2025-26 has become more benign than expected in June. "Large favourable base effects combined with steady progress of the southwest monsoon, healthy kharif sowing, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable buffer stocks of foodgrains have contributed to this moderation," he said while presenting the August monetary policy statement. The latest survey saw 79.5% of respondents expecting prices to rise in general as compared with 80.5% of respondents in the May round. A year ago, 82.3% expected prices to rise. In terms of food items, 80% expect prices to rise in July against 82.8% in May and 84.2% a year back, reflecting that more households are getting comfortable on price households however now believe that prices of durable goods and cost of services are to increase. About 67.4% respondents expect prices of household consumer goods to rise as against 66.3% expecting a rise in the previous round of survey. The percentage of households was 71.7% against 69.6% respectively for the last two rounds when it comes to cost of measured by Consumer Price Index, however, is likely to rise above 4% in the fourth quarter due to unfavourable base effects and expected rise in demand, said central bank projected the CPI inflation for 2025-26 at 3.1% with second quarter print at 2.1%, third quarter print at 3.1% and fourth quarter print at 4.4%. Meanwhile, RBI has projected CPI inflation for the first quarter of the next fiscal 27 at 4.9%.
