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More economic trouble is coming. And there's only one escape route
More economic trouble is coming. And there's only one escape route

The Herald Scotland

timea day ago

  • Business
  • The Herald Scotland

More economic trouble is coming. And there's only one escape route

Unfortunately, although politicians say they like economic growth they generally have no idea how to nurture it and often act in ways which seem designed to slow the economy down. The UK Government's latest Employment Rights Bill is a perfect example. There are many things which encourage faster growth: a stable and not stifling regulatory regime, opportunity, social attitudes to wealth creation. In general the direction of travel for these factors is unhelpful but there is another obvious key factor - arguably more powerful than all the rest - which is curiously overlooked. That is the availability of money. For an entrepreneur to turn a great idea into a fledging business takes money and to grow that business into a company which creates jobs and wealth takes more money still. If we look back to the last period of really strong growth in the UK economy, the mid-1980s to about 2007, a lot of favourable factors were at play but the one which mattered most was that money was available in a way which it isn't today. During that time of strong growth Scotland was extraordinarily lucky to have the Bank of Scotland as its key economic facilitator. RBS may have been bigger but it never fostered growth in the same way as the Bank of Scotland did. A business person needing money for growth could go to see their local bank manager, who actually existed and whose job was to grow the bank's business from their branch. If the amount needed was bigger, you went up to the Head Office on the Mound to see somebody, probably called Gavin, Peter or Colin, who took time to understand your business and provided funding to support its growth. There would have been no Stagecoach or Sports Division able to grow rapidly whilst the founders retained control without Bank of Scotland providing finance based not on lending against assets but against the expected cashflows of the business. No public subsidy was involved, no stupid questionnaires to make sure woke targets were being met, just sensible people making commercial decisions which enabled hundreds of companies to get off the ground and grow. Read more It's time to cast aside prejudice and go for the cash Can anyone truly say the Scottish Parliament been a great success? I can't Who will tell the truth? Economically, we are in a mess The financial crisis of 2008 put paid to all that funding for growth and it has never been replaced. What sank RBS and HBOS was not supporting entrepreneurs but the same good old mistake behind almost all banking crises: too much lending against overvalued property. The price of the state bailout though was the dismantling of a support system which had served us well. The UK and Scottish Governments have tried to put in place schemes which provide sources of investment. The SEIS and EIS schemes where investors receive tax relief when investing in young companies is effective, the various government-backed banks including the Scottish National Investment Bank, rather less so. These new schemes provide equity finance whereas most entrepreneurs want debt; they don't want to give up too much control of their companies. Where debt finance is available for companies it now nearly always requires a personal guarantee from the directors of the borrower which acts as a deterrent and negates the whole point of having a limited liability company. What is needed to increase significantly the supply of money to fund growth is to switch the banking system back on as a major provider of risk funding. This won't happen on its own, the UK Government has to give it a shove. The former Bank of Scotland HQ on The Mound (Image: Newsquest) Each of our banks should be given targets for entrepreneurial lending and their progress monitored and reported on regularly. Entrepreneurial lending needs to be defined but its definition should be broad: lending to a company of up to £10million, the company must be a trading company and not own property or land. No personal guarantees allowed. Keep it simple. What the bank should get in return for this lending is that the interest and fees they earn are not subject to corporation tax. One or more banks will see the opportunity to get tax-free revenue by extending loans which are risker in order to help businesses grow. The regulator's instinct to do everything possible to stop such lending must be curbed. Mistakes must be allowed to be made. Not a spectacular initiative for a politician to announce, no ribbons for them to cut but if something like this was introduced it really would help growth.

NatWest reports 18% rise in first-half profit, announces £750m buyback
NatWest reports 18% rise in first-half profit, announces £750m buyback

RTÉ News​

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • RTÉ News​

NatWest reports 18% rise in first-half profit, announces £750m buyback

NatWest's first-half profit rose a slightly better than expected 18% as it grew loans and deposits, it said today, allowing the British lender to announce a fresh share buyback worth £750m. The British bank said operating pretax profit for the January to June period was £3.6 billion, compared with the average of analysts' forecasts compiled by the bank of £3.46 billion. The lender upgraded its key profit performance guidance for this year, saying it now expects to achieve a return on tangible equity of 16.5%, from previous guidance of up to 16%. The upbeat earnings report followed a similarly strong performance announced by rival Lloyds earlier this week, thanks in part to resilience from British households and businesses in the face of a murky economic outlook. The bank's buyback announcement was in line with the £730m that analysts had predicted, and could further boost shares that have already risen 47% in the last year. NatWest on May 30 announced its return to full private ownership, ending a costly, taxpayer-funded UK government investment that dated back to its rescue in the 2008 crisis. The bank, then known as RBS, has since transformed from a sprawling global investment bank into a domestic-focused corporate and retail bank, meaning it has been largely insulated from the market turmoil surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. After nearly two decades of shrinking its business, it has begun to snap up rivals, buying the banking arm of supermarket retailer Sainsbury's in June last year amid a wider wave of consolidation in Britain's financial industry. That deal added £2.2 billion in customer balances for NatWest in the second quarter, it said, helping its overall £8 billion of loan growth in the period. Such borrowing, coupled with relatively low impairments, has helped allay fears for now that Britain's slow economic growth and sticky inflation would stifle businesses and drive them and mortgage borrowers into default. Competition is likely to intensify further this year following Santander's acquisition of TSB, which created a scale rival to incumbents like NatWest and Lloyds.

Brian Cox takes on role of Adam Smith in new show set for Fringe
Brian Cox takes on role of Adam Smith in new show set for Fringe

Daily Record

time21-07-2025

  • Entertainment
  • Daily Record

Brian Cox takes on role of Adam Smith in new show set for Fringe

The Dundee-born star, who played fearsome media tycoon bully Logan Roy in TV hit Succession, is returning to Scotland for his scariest role in decades It was the banking disaster that brought an old Scottish institution to its knees and sent shockwaves around the globe in the worst financial collapse of modern times. Now actor Brian Cox has set his sights on tormenting the man responsible for it. ‌ The Dundee-born star, who played fearsome media tycoon bully Logan Roy in TV hit Succession, is returning to Scotland for his scariest role in decades – as a ghost of one of the country's most famous sons. And Fred 'The Shred' Goodwin is his target. ‌ Cox plays the spectre of Adam Smith, known as the father of modern economics, returning from beyond his 18th century grave to haunt Goodwin, who became one of the most reviled figures in modern Scottish history after his role in the collapse of the Royal Bank of Scotland. ‌ Smith was a key figure of the Scottish Enlightenment, when ­ Edinburgh became a centre of modern philosophy, elevating figures like him, David Hume and James Hutton and their progressive view of civilisation on to the world stage and into history. And for the 79-year-old actor, haunting the shamed banker from beyond the grave is the theatre role of a lifetime. Cox, who suggested he played the part of Smith himself, said: ' Fred Goodwin was unbelievably self-serving with his singularity of purpose. He certainly wasn't serving his community. ‌ 'This guy said he was a follower of Adam Smith but he got it all wrong. Smith wrote two books, The Theory of Moral Sentiments and then The Wealth of Nations, which was all about how wealth is distributed and who it is distributed to. 'When people think about Adam Smith now, they often think it was all about economics. But it was also about moral welfare. And the reason Goodwin got it all wrong was because he only followed only the second book. He didn't see the books in relation to one another. And the degree of selfishness that Goodwin pursued almost destroyed the RBS.' Cox plays the ghost of the celebrated thinker in a new tragi-comedy by award-winning writer James Graham, ­opposite Sandy Grierson as the banker responsible for the financial cataclysm. ‌ Dubbed Make it Happen, the National Theatre of Scotland production opened on Friday in the actor's home town of Dundee, and transfers to Edinburgh for the ­International Festival next month. Cox said: 'It's 16 years since 2008 so there's enough time passed now to tell the story. It deals with Fred's election right through to his demise. James Graham's script is pure satire. It's brilliant. ‌ 'Adam Smith has been summoned as a spirit because Goodwin has made such a mess of things. He's been summoned up because he's the guy who holds the truth. It's told in an original way and it's very funny. Smith came from Kirkcaldy and he can't believe the town produced a prime minister in Gordon Brown. 'It shows the folly of human nature, how we simply don't progress, and how greed is such a curse of who we are. Always wanting more.' The impact of the so-called economic ­downturn of 2008 can still be felt today after Brown's government pumped £45billion into the stricken bank, recovering only £35billion since. Goodwin had his knighthood removed but retained his £700,000 pension. Join the Daily Record WhatsApp community! Get the latest news sent straight to your messages by joining our WhatsApp community today. You'll receive daily updates on breaking news as well as the top headlines across Scotland. No one will be able to see who is signed up and no one can send messages except the Daily Record team. All you have to do is click here if you're on mobile, select 'Join Community' and you're in! If you're on a desktop, simply scan the QR code above with your phone and click 'Join Community'. We also treat our community members to special offers, promotions, and adverts from us and our partners. If you don't like our community, you can check out any time you like. To leave our community click on the name at the top of your screen and choose 'exit group'. If you're curious, you can read our Privacy Notice. ‌ Playwright Graham describes watching the role of then-chancellor Alistair Darling with PM Brown as 'a huge ­Shakespearean rise and fall'. He said: 'It has always amazed me that there hasn't really been any change in society's model after 2008. We just limped on with the same structures. I wanted to examine that.' Cox moved to London from the US with his wife Nicole earlier this year but still gets emotional when talking about his home city. Despite major cultural successes such as Dundee Rep, the V&A Museum and Dundee Centre for Contemporary Arts, the city has suffered a rise in social problems, mainly linked to addiction. Last year a national report revealed a 92 per cent rise in ­ drug-related deaths since 2013. Cox said: 'I've been critical about what's going on in Dundee and I can't keep my mouth shut about it. It goes back to the social ­engineering decades ago when they moved people out of the cities. ‌ 'They did it in Glasgow then they did it in Dundee. You lived with your ­neighbour for 40 years and then they moved you out and made sure those neighbours didn't live together again. 'A city is the people and when you move them into the outskirts it leads to drug addiction then criminality because that's what happens when there aren't enough community elements in place.' ‌ Cox has held the Tayside city close, filming BBC Scotland comedy Bob Servant there in the 2010s. He even shot an episode of Succession in the city but admits he was annoyed when Logan Roy's background was changed mid-series. He said: 'I always said he could be ­Scottish but they insisted ­American. For nine episodes he was from the States, and from the first episode we were ­celebrating his birthday and he gave a speech saying he had come from Quebec, which is ­obviously Canada, not the US. ‌ 'Then in the ninth episode of the first series, they suddenly tell me Logan's from Dundee. I was really angry about that. I went up to Jessie and asked him what was going on and he said, 'We thought it would be a little surprise.' Well it was a hell of a surprise. 'I've been playing the part in one direction and then in the ninth episode I'm suddenly a Dundonian. The thinking was that he left Dundee when he was three or four, as part of the transport of kids who went from ­Scotland to Canada at the start of the war. I accepted that. But it was ridiculous.' Cox is breaking unfamiliar ground with Make It Happen, testing his range in singing. "I have a duet with Sandy Grierson, ­apparently,' he said. 'I used to sing when I was younger, and my son is a very good singer but I got nervous about it when the acting all kicked off. I would have liked to have sung earlier on.' ● Make It Happen is at Dundee Rep until July 26 then at Edinburgh Festival Theatre from July 30 to August 9.

People with money in a savings account urged to check it now
People with money in a savings account urged to check it now

Daily Record

time09-07-2025

  • Business
  • Daily Record

People with money in a savings account urged to check it now

Savers are being warned to act fast as interest rates are due to drop at major high street banks. Personal finance site Finder is warning savers to act now or risk missing out, as two of the UK's biggest banks will drop their savings rates in a week's time, with a further two banks dropping rates the following week. Finder experts have been tracking savings rate changes and nine popular banks, including the 'big four', have all either slashed rates since the last interest rate cut or scheduled a drop in their savings rates. Eight accounts at NatWest and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) will be impacted on July 15, including four instant access savings products, with both banks lowering the rate on these offerings from 1.25 per cent to 1.15 per cent. Other accounts affected include children's savings accounts, where the rates will be dropping from 2.25 per cent to 2.05 per cent. Finder also said that customers at HSBC and Co-op Bank should also be prepared for rate drops this month. The rates on two HSBC accounts - Flexible Saver and Online Bonus Saver - are going from 1.35 per cent to 1.3 per cent on July 21. Meanwhile, four different Co-op Bank savings rates will be slashed on July 23, with the Online Saver and Online Cash ISA dropping from 2.34 per cent to 2.12 per cent, and the Cash ISA and Smart Saver dropping from 1.62 per cent to 1.53 per cent. The decision to lower these rates came after the Bank of England made the decision to cut the base rate from 4.5 per cent to 4.25 per cent in May, although the base rate was held at the most recent meeting in June. Kate Steere, personal finance expert at Finder, said: 'If you were earning the new NatWest or RBS rate of 1.15 per cent AER with the amount we found the average Brit has saved (£16,067), you'd get just £185 in interest over the course of a year. There are much more competitive rates available. 'For example, if you opened a Plum Cash ISA with a rate of 4.98 per cent AER (including a 12-month 1.69% bonus) using the £16,000, you could earn up to just over £800 in interest over the year (dependent on any rate changes) - a potential £600 boost to your savings. 'Lots of analysts are predicting a further cut to the base rate in August. With the next meeting less than a month away, it's essential to act fast if you want to get the most from your savings. 'Variable rates are subject to change so if you are still looking to use your 2025/26 ISA allowance - and you can afford to lock your cash away - now is also a great time to seek out a good deal on a fixed-rate ISA. 'Using the full tax-free allowance is more important than ever with reports that Rachel Reeves will announce a cut to the Cash ISA limit in her Mansion House speech next week. Currently, Cynergy Bank is offering 4.32 per cent AER for a 1-year fix.'

Business confidence in Scotland at highest level in 8 months
Business confidence in Scotland at highest level in 8 months

The National

time08-07-2025

  • Business
  • The National

Business confidence in Scotland at highest level in 8 months

The private sector also saw its strongest rise in activity since November, the bank's growth tracker found. BUSINESS confidence has risen to its highest level in eight months, according to a Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) survey. Overall, the combined output of Scotland's manufacturing and service sectors rose from a score of 50.5 in May to 50.9 in June. It marks the second consecutive monthly rise in business activity. READ MORE: 'What do they stand for?': What we learned about Labour from new poll of 7000 voters RBS said that while the uptick was modest overall, it was the strongest since November 2024. The growth was driven entirely by the services sector with new project funding and a rise in demand underscoring the uptick. Manufacturing continued to fall sharply, the tracker found. Overall, business confidence improved to its highest level of optimism in eight months. Judith Cruickshank, chair of the One Bank Scotland Board, said: 'Scotland's private sector recorded a sustained uptick in activity at the end of the second quarter, with growth predominantly driven by service providers. 'In contrast, the manufacturing sector faced a challenging demand environment, leading to overall declines in new business and production. 'Despite these sectoral differences, firms exhibited increased optimism about the future, with manufacturers reporting positive growth forecasts for the first time in three months. 'In June, private sector firms encountered sharply rising operating costs, but selling price inflation slowed notably. This suggests a willingness among businesses to absorb some costs to bolster sales. 'The employment landscape remained broadly stable compared to the previous month, with sector data continuing to highlight diverging trends between manufacturers and service providers.' The UK as a whole saw output growth rise to a nine-month high, the tracker found, driven by expansions in business activity across eight of the 12 nations and regions monitored by the survey. Companies in Scotland recorded a ninth successive monthly fall in incoming new orders during June. The reduction in new work was centred on the manufacturing sector as services firms reported another expansion. UK-wide, new business rose for the first time in seven months. In Scotland, private sector companies remained optimistic about the year-ahead for activity in June. The degree of positive sentiment rose for a third straight month to the highest since October but was weaker than that recorded for the UK as a whole. Confidence across Scotland was supported by plans to introduce new product lines, improved operational performance, and strategic marketing efforts, the survey found. And after a slight rise in employment in May, Scotland's workforce numbers were broadly unchanged in June. Services firms reported increases in staffing levels amid upturns in new business and activity. However, this was offset by another month of job shedding at manufacturers. A near universal fall in headcounts was also recorded across the 12 monitored UK regions and nations, with Northern Ireland being the sole exception. Among the remaining areas, Scotland experienced the least pronounced drop in employment and one that was only 'fractional', RBS said. Since mid-2024, Scottish firms have continued to record a drop in backlogs of work, although June's rate of depletion was the weakest in eight months. RBS said that the fall is driven by a lack of orders in manufacturing which has allowed firms to complete outstanding orders. According to the survey, Scottish firms signalled another marked increase in average input costs during June. It found the rate of inflation quickened from May and was 'historically elevated'. Survey respondents often reported higher costs for materials, labour and energy, as well as rising supplier prices. READ MORE: Ancient neolithic festival site unearthed ahead of planned football pitches However, the rise was less pronounced in Scotland compared to the UK as a whole. Firms north of the order also raised their output prices at a reduced rate in June. RBS described the latest increase in charges as 'solid' but still amounted to the slowest rate in 11 months and was similar to the UK-wide average. Where higher charges were recorded, they were primarily attributed to the pass-through of increased operating expenses to customers.

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