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India Today
02-06-2025
- Politics
- India Today
Trump blinks before China, scares weaker countries: Ian Bremmer's full interview
In a wide-ranging interview with India Today Consulting Editor Rajdeep Sardesai, Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group and one of the world's foremost geopolitical analysts, described Ukraine's recent drone attacks on Russian air bases as "shocking" and potentially a turning point in the nearly four-year-long also spoke in detail about US President Donald Trump's global engagement style, calling attention to how weaker countries tend to "take Trump more seriously and are scared of him".advertisementHe cited examples of Mexico, Panama, and Iran, where countries quickly fell in line with Trump's demands. However, he argued that more powerful states like China and Russia have been less responsive, forcing Trump to divert his diplomatic attention elsewhere. Discussing Ukraine's recent military strike, Bremmer pointed out that the Ukrainian operation-reportedly destroying up to 30 percent of Russia's strategic bomber fleet-poses a serious challenge to Russia's nuclear deterrence capability. He compared the attack to Israel's dismantling of Hezbollah's military infrastructure in 2006, calling it both an "opportunity" and an "exceptionally dangerous development."Commenting on India's recent 87-hour military standoff with Pakistan, Bremmer said India currently finds itself in a more "uncomfortable" position. While he acknowledged Prime Minister Narendra Modi's international strength, he noted that geopolitically, India remains "much weaker" than the United States or China. He also described China as the "main military backer" of Pakistan, while emphasising that India and China share complex trade and diplomatic are key takeaways from Bremmer's remarks on different themes during the interview:ON RUSSIA-UKRAINE WARadvertisement"It is a shocking development. And it's unclear if it's going to reduce or increase the risks around this three and a half year now war, bloody, expensive and impacting the world. Ukraine has not just shown that they can hit back across all of Russian territory, they can do serious damage to Russia's military capabilities to fight the war, but also they can undermine Russia's nuclear capabilities, their strategic deterrence capabilities, their second strike capabilities, the balance of power between Russia and the United States, Russia and NATO. Some of the strikes that we saw this weekend were at the Russian border with Mongolia... literally thousands of miles away from the Ukrainian front line. My biggest fear is that the Russians refuse to accept that they have fewer cards than they thought they have... and instead take this as a necessity to escalate against Ukraine.""I suppose the most serious concern would be if the Russians decided that this was the reason to engage in a tactical nuclear strike. That would be the worst possible near-term scenario. I don't think it's likely, but it is certainly more likely than it was two days ago. This also plays to something that India and Pakistan... need to understand-that you don't need to be an economic superpower to be able to pose incredible damage to a much bigger country. It should tell us that war should be avoided at all costs."advertisement"A big part of the reason that Putin has felt that he can continue this war... is that he doesn't value the lives of his own civilians and he hasn't felt like there have been serious consequences for him domestically by pursuing this war. Maybe if Russia keeps pursuing this war... Russia is not going to be a military superpower any more. The fact that the Russians are willing to persist with that discussion [in Istanbul], which the Americans, the Europeans, China, India-everyone wants... even just 24 hours after Russia's massive strategic defeat at the hands of Ukraine, is a reason to believe that this is an opportunity."ON TRUMP'S DIPLOMATIC STRATEGY"Trump has spent a lot more time and diplomatic effort and political capital in the past few weeks engaging in the Middle East, talking about perhaps a breakthrough deal with the Iranians but less time on Russia, Ukraine. If Trump is unwilling to spell out exactly what the threats would be against Russia then our basic expectation should be that Trump ends his diplomatic engagement on Russia-Ukraine and walks away."advertisementON TRUMP'S IMPACT ON GLOBAL POWER DYNAMICS"There are countries that are scared of Trump, and they capitulate quickly when he makes demands. Look at Panama, how they immediately try to sell, force the sale of the Hong Kong firm of the ports to an American firm and say, we won't charge the Americans to ship through Panama military, we'll take away the fees, even though it hurts the Panamanians. Look at how the Iranians are in a much weaker diplomatic and geopolitical position, much more willing to accept talks and talk about stopping highly enriched uranium stockpiling, all of these things. Weaker countries take Trump much more seriously and are scared of him. More powerful countries. More powerful countries, I'll give you another example you didn't mention: Trump put major tariffs on China. China puts tariffs back on the United States. Trump says, 'We're going to hurt you.' China says, 'I don't need a phone call with you. We can take the pain more than you can.' And Trump is the one that blinks. And when it comes to Russia, so far Trump has been completely unwilling, unwilling to put tough sanctions on Russia, consequences. Russia has been unwilling to blink. They continue to engage in their war with impunity in Ukraine."advertisementON INDIA-PAKISTAN CEASEFIRE"India said no to some of what the Americans demanded. The ceasefire has stuck. I think everyone's glad the ceasefire has stuck. India is in a more uncomfortable position there's still a lot of uncertainty about to what extent Indians can and will really stand up to Donald Trump. The ceasefire has stuck. I think everyone's glad the ceasefire has stuck. I think it's good for India, Pakistan, and the world. But my point is that I think that there is right now, look, Modi is arguably the most powerful domestic leader of a major democracy in the world today, over 10 years in place. He's able to make domestic and foreign policy pretty much at his will at a time when other leaders around the world: the Germans, the French, the Japanese, the Americans, the South Koreans."ON PM NARENDRA MODI'S POSITION GLOBALLY"PM Modi is arguably the most powerful domestic leader of a major democracy in the world today but India is not China, India is not the United States. It is geopolitically much weaker. And so, I think that there's still a lot of uncertainty about to what extent the Indians can and will really stand up to Donald Trump and Americans, if and when the Americans say, we're making some demands of you that you aren't going to like. Is India a strong country that can stand up to Trump or are they a weak country? I don't think we know that yet."advertisementON CHINA AS A THREAT TO INDIAChina is the military backer of Pakistan but China is also an incredibly important trade partner for India. India and China desire a relationship of stability with each other both want a stable world. And a lot of the goods that go to the rest of the world from China go through India and have value added in India. And India and China, as we've seen from the last face-to-face meeting that Modi and Xi Jinping have had, desire a relationship of stability with each other, don't want to be fighting over their own contested border, and also both want a stable world. They're both part of the BRICS. They're both members in good standing of the G20. They play leadership roles in multilateral institutions. That the United States has been showing less interest in President Trump. So yes, of course, China is a competitor is an adversary in Asia, which is India's backyard. So those things are important. And India and China compete not just on Pakistan, but for influence in places like Sri Lanka and the Maldives and Bhutan and all over the region. So that's really THE STATE OF GLOBAL SECURITY"Absolutely. It's what I call a G-Zero world. That's a geopolitical recession. The United States increasingly is not the global policeman but no other country or group of countries is willing and capable to replace Americans. That is a place where we see much more impunity, it's much more dangerous, it's much more unstable, it's much more uncertain."Must Watch
The Hill
14-02-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
Evening Report — Trump team scolds allies on global stage
TRUMP FIRST 100 DAYS Trump officials look for one-two punch in Europe PRESIDENT TRUMP'S NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM sent a warning shot to global allies Friday, bringing their disruptive and confrontational style to the world stage. In a blistering speech at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President Vance scolded U.S. allies in the European Union while announcing that the status quo won't hold under Trump. 'There's a new sheriff in town,' Vance said to light applause. Vance seethed at what he described as a crackdown on free speech in Europe, citing a man who was arrested for silently praying near an abortion clinic. 'In Britain and across Europe, I fear free speech is in retreat,' he said. Vance took aim at what he described as a mass migration crisis in Europe. 'No voter on this continent went to the ballot box to open the floodgates to millions of unvetted immigrants,' he said. And he blasted global concerns about the influence of Elon Musk, saying: 'If American democracy can survive 10 years of Greta Thunberg's scolding, you guys can survive a few months of Elon Musk.' Earlier in the week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned NATO that the U.S. would be pulling back and Europe would be responsible for its own security. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius rebuffed Vance back in a Friday speech at the Munich conference: 'This democracy that was just called into question by the U.S. vice president … he compares the condition of Europe with the condition that prevails in some authoritarian regimes,' Pistorius sad. 'Ladies and gentlemen, this is not acceptable. This is not the Europe, not the democracy where I live … this is not the democracy I witness every day.' RUSSIA-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS OFF TO A MUDDY START Trump's national security team is in Munich to begin deliberations on how to end the nearly three-year war between Russia and Ukraine. Vance met Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. 'We want to achieve a durable, lasting peace, not the kind of peace that's going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the road,' Vance said. Zelensky posted on social media after the meeting: 'We are ready to move as quickly as possible towards a real and guaranteed peace. We deeply value President Trump's determination, which can help stop the war and secure justice and security guarantees for Ukraine.' It's been a bumpy ride so far, both literally and figuratively. The Air Force plane carrying Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Munich had to return to Washington when its cockpit windshield cracked. Rubio got on a different plane. • Meanwhile, Hegseth elicited bipartisan outrage for announcing that Ukraine would not gain entrance to NATO or return to its 2014 borders as part of any peace deal with Russia. Hegseth initially defended the remarks, saying he was only being realistic. Many saw that as a concession to Russia before negotiations officially got underway. 'A rookie mistake,' Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) told Politico, adding that he was 'puzzled and disturbed' by the remarks. Hegseth later walked back the remarks, saying 'everything is on the table.' Zelensky later conceded: 'The United States never saw us in NATO, they just spoke about it, but they really didn't want us in NATO.' • Trump has spoken warmly about the potential for a working relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, unnerving some Senate Republicans. Vance on Friday took a harder line, warning the U.S. could hit Russia with more sanctions if they believe Putin isn't negotiating in good faith. Trump has been shooting from the hip, injecting all manner of new concepts into the mix. The president wants Russia back in the Group of Seven (G7) major economies, saying their exclusion may have led to the conflict with Ukraine. Trump also mused about a potential trilateral deal between the U.S., Russia and China, wherein all three countries agree to cut their defense spending in half. And Trump said he talked to Putin about both countries putting a halt on building new nuclear weapons. 'We were talking about de-nuking…President Putin and I agreed we are going to do it in a very big way,' Trump said. 💡 Perspectives: • The Hill: How Trump can achieve lasting peace with Russia and Ukraine. • The Atlantic: Listen closely to what Hegseth is saying. • The Hill: Is there a foreign policy 'Trump Doctrine'? • New York Post: Trump wants peace and an end to the war in Ukraine. • Marco Rubio: The Americas' Golden Age begins now. CATCH UP QUICK President Trump signed an executive order stripping funds from schools requiring COVID-19 vaccines. Wholesale prices jumped 3.5 percent annually. Retail sales made their biggest drop in almost two years. Chris Stirewalt writes for Whole Hog Politics on how inflation clouds hang over the budget battle. TikTok is back on the Apple and Google app stores after President Trump delayed a ban on the social media company. NEWS THIS AFTERNOON Adams controversy blows back on Trump's DOJ The controversy surrounding the Department of Justice (DOJ) decision to end a corruption investigation into New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) has blown up on the Trump administration. At least a half-dozen federal prosecutors have resigned over the Justice Department's directive that the investigation into Adams be shut down. Some of those who resigned have strong conservative bona fides. Danielle Sassoon, the former acting attorney overseeing Adams's case, alleged that attorneys for the mayor had pushed for a 'quid pro quo' before the DOJ ordered the case be dropped. Adams called the quid pro quo allegations 'silly.' Sassoon resigned her post instead of dropping the charges, writing in a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi: 'I have always considered it my obligation to pursue justice impartially, without favor to the wealthy or those who occupy important public office, or harsher treatment for the less powerful. I cannot fulfill my obligations, effectively lead my office in carrying out the Department's priorities, or credibly represent the Government before the courts, if I seek to dismiss the Adams case on this record.' Sassoon was appointed by Trump in January to be interim U.S. Attorney for the Southern District in New York. She had previously clerked for conservative former Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. Read her full letter to Bondi here. The top prosecutor on the Adams case, Hagan Scotten, also resigned in a blistering letter to DOJ official Emil Bove, stating: 'I expect you will eventually find someone who is enough of a fool, or enough of a coward, to file your motion [to dismiss charges]. But it was never going to be me.' Scotten earned two Bronze stars over the course of three combat tours in Iraq. Here's a rundown on all of the DOJ officials who have resigned so far. ➤ MEANWHILE… The Trump administration is pressing Adams to implement its immigration policies, as Bondi sues Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and others for failing to enforce the Trump administration's immigration laws. Adams agreed to allow federal immigration officials to use Rikers Island as a detention center. Trump's border czar Tom Homan told Fox News: 'If he doesn't come through, I'll be back in New York City, and we will be sitting on the couch … I'll be in his office saying, 'Where the hell is the agreement we came to? We're going to deliver for the safety of the people of this city.'' Democrats believe Adams has been compromised and is in Trump's pocket after the order to end the investigation. 'Adams must be removed,' said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). 💡 Perspectives: • The Hill: Where's the outrage? 'Trump World Inc.'s' many conflicts of interest. • MSNBC: Trump's 'lawfare' attack on the courts could backfire. IN OTHER NEWS © SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images Washington roundup: White House escalates press battles • The White House says it will ban The Associated Press from the Oval Office and Air Force 1 because the outlet continues to use the 'Gulf of Mexico' after President Trump renamed it the 'Gulf of America.' The White House Correspondents Association slammed the retaliation against the AP after its reporters were banned from other recent events: 'The White House is seeking to curtail the press freedoms enshrined in our Constitution, and has admitted publicly they are restricting access to events to punish a news outlet for not advancing the government's preferred language.' • The Interior Department fired 2,300 employees after a directive from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM). OPM directed agencies to fire government workers who are still in their probationary period. • Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he has a list of staffers who 'need to be moved.' • A judge ordered the government to temporarily cease efforts to terminate foreign aid contracts and grants. • Fourteen states are suing Trump and Elon Musk, calling the billionaire's role in gutting federal agencies unconstitutional. • Government watchdogs launched audits into the new Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) access to a sensitive federal payment system located at the Treasury Department. 💡 Perspectives: • Racket: The EPA's $20 billion caper. • The Hill: Shouldn't everyone be against waste? • USA Today: Trump is doing what Americans want. • The Guardian: Resistance 2.0 is growing. • The American Prospect: Laying off empiricists. Sunday Shows
The Hill
12-02-2025
- Politics
- The Hill
DC Bureau: Prisoner Release Russia Relations
PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS NEGOTIATIONS WILL START IMMEDIATELY.. TO END THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR. IT COMES AFTER THE U-S WELCOMED HOME AN AMERICAN LAST NIGHT AS PART OF A PRISONER SWAP WITH RUSSIA. WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT MADDIE BIERTEMPFEL (BEER-temple) IS IN D-C WITH MORE ON THE EXCHANGE. IN EXCHANGE FOR GETTING MARC FOGEL HOME.. WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS SAY THE U-S IS RELEASING A RUSSIAN CRIMINAL-- ALEXANDER VINNIK. HE WAS ARRESTED FOR CRYPTOCURRENCY FRAUD AND CONVICTED OF MONEY LAUNDERING. AS MARC FOGEL STEPPED BACK ON AMERICAN SOIL.. "I feel like the luckiest man on earth right now." THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS HIS RELEASE IS A STEP FORWARD IN ENDING THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR. "it's a sign we are moving in the right direction" PRESIDENT TRUMP GREETED THE AMERICAN TEACHER AT THE WHITE HOUSE LATE TUESDAY AFTER FOGEL SPENT ABOUT THREE YEARS JAILED IN RUSSIA FOR HAVING MEDICAL MARIJUANA. "It could be a big important part of getting the war over with Ukraine." THE PRISONER SWAP COMES AMID NEW TALKS TO END THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE HAD A PHONE CALL WITH RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN TODAY.. "I think President Putin wants peace President Zelenskyy wants peace and I want peace" THE PRESIDENT ALSO SPOKE TO UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.. WHO POSTED ON X THAT THE TWO TALKED ABOUT QUOTE "opportunities to achieve peace." "Returning to Ukraine's pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective." WHILE MEETING WITH NATO LEADERS.. DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH SHOT DOWN SOME OF UKRAINE'S JOINING NATO. "The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome" SOME ALLIES DISAGREED WITH THAT. "Ukraine's rightful place is in NATO. That is a process that will take some time." VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE AND SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO ARE SET TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY FRIDAY IN GERMANY. IN WASHINGTON I'M MADDIE BIERTEMPFEL. {OPTIONAL ANCHOR TAG: PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID HE WILL MEET IN-PERSON WITH RUSSIA'S PRESIDENT PUTIN. HE SAID THE FIRST MEETING WILL LIKELY BE IN SAUDIA ARABIA, BUT DIDN'T SAY *WHEN THAT MIGHT BE.}
