Latest news with #RabeeSecurities
Zawya
10 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index posts 0.7% growth in May
Baghdad, Iraq: The Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index (RSISX Index) rose by 0.7% in May, supported by gains in Asiacell, Baghdad Soft Drinks, National Bank of Iraq, and Al-Mansour Bank. Meanwhile, the RSISX Total Return Index (RSISXTR) outperformed, rising 6.4%, driven by strong dividend activity. Key contributors included Bank of Baghdad (IQD0.65 per share, 14.5% yield), Asiacell (IQD1.50 per share, 11.5% yield), and Al-Mansour Hotel (IQD0.17 per share, 0.4% yield). Tugba Tan Karakaya, Equity Analyst at Rabee Securities, commented: 'The market's performance this month reinforces investor confidence in core sectors like banking and telecom. Despite softer trading volumes, we are seeing healthy signals in dividend yields and price movements. As Iraq advances on reforms and financial inclusion, the medium-term fundamentals remain promising'. Total trading volume on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) declined 21% month-on-month to USD 21.8 million. Excluding cross-transactions, the volume stood at USD 18.2 million, a 24% drop. The banking sector remained dominant, accounting for 60.1% of trades, followed by telecom (19.8%), industry (13.1%), services (3.2%), agriculture (2.1%), and hotels & tourism (1.6%). Trading activity in the OTC market also dipped 10% to USD 88.5K. In May, 27 companies recorded share price increases. Of these, 13 rose more than 5%, and 9 gained over 10%. Al-Ahlyia for Agricultural Production led the market with a 67.4% surge, followed by Al-Hilal Industries, up 42.5%. On the macroeconomic front, Iraq welcomed several key developments during the month. The IMF, during its May 4–13 visit, called for urgent reforms including fiscal consolidation, restructuring of state-owned banks, and private sector expansion. The 34th Ordinary Arab League Summit was held in Baghdad on May 17, hosting delegations from 20 Arab countries. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) launched its first National Financial Inclusion Strategy (2025–2029), aiming to expand secure access to financial services nationwide. Additionally, Iraq signed a strategic deal with a consortium led by China-based Geo-Jade Petroleum and Basra Crescent. The agreement targets a fivefold increase in output from the Tuba oil field rising from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day and includes investment in downstream infrastructure totaling $848 million.
Zawya
09-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Rabee's Iraq Stock Exchange Index reports 3.0% growth in April
Baghdad, Iraq: The Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index (RSISX Index) recorded a 3.0% increase in April, distinguishing Iraq's capital markets from declines seen across several regional economies, including Saudi Arabia (-2.9%), Bahrain (-2.0%), Kuwait (-1.4%), and Muscat (-1.2%). The positive trajectory was led by key contributors such as Al-Mansour Hotel, Al-Mansour Bank, Baghdad Soft Drinks, Asiacell, and Bank of Baghdad. 'The strength of Iraq's financial markets this month reflects more than isolated stock movements—it signals growing investor trust in the country's economic reforms and market structure,' said Tugba Tan Karakaya, Equity Analyst at Rabee Securities. 'With regulatory momentum building and investor participation diversifying, the RSISX Index continues to position itself as a credible indicator of the country's forward economic narrative.' The RSISX Total Return Index (RSISXTR) posted a 4.2% rise in April, outpacing the RSISX Index itself. This gain was partially driven by the absence of the dividend impact from the National Bank of Iraq, which issued a dividend of IQD 0.20 per share, equivalent to a 5.6% yield. Total trading volume on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) dipped by 2% compared to March, reaching USD 27.7 million. Excluding cross transactions, volume declined 11% month-on-month to USD 24.1 million. The banking sector continued to dominate activity with a 71.1% share, followed by the industry (11.0%), telecom (6.2%), hotels and tourism (6.0%), agriculture (4.2%), and services (1.5%) sectors. Meanwhile, over-the-counter (OTC) market volume rose significantly, increasing 288% from the previous month to USD 98.5K. Investor sentiment remained optimistic, with 30 companies witnessing share price growth. Of these, 16 increased by more than 5.0%, and 8 surpassed the 10.0% mark. Kurdistan International Islamic Bank led with a 118.9% increase in share value, followed by Al-Mansour Hotel at 20.0%. On a broader level, April featured several developments underscoring Iraq's capital market maturity. A strategic cooperation agreement between the Iraqi and American Chambers of Commerce was signed on April 9 to strengthen SME participation and enhance bilateral trade, science, and technology collaboration. On April 15, the Iraqi Securities Commission launched its first Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) guide, establishing mandatory standards for ISX-listed companies. The month concluded with a landmark MoU between the Iraq Stock Exchange, the Iraqi Securities Commission, and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange to join the Tabadul digital trading platform, advancing regional integration and cross-border innovation.
Iraq Business
07-05-2025
- Business
- Iraq Business
Tabaqchali: Market at an All-time High, Oil Prices Crashing, What Gives?
By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News . Market at an All-time High, Oil Prices Crashing, What Gives? The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), closed at an all-time high for the month, with a 3.0% increase, and is up 3.3% for the year. The market was closed in the first week of the month in observance of the Eid holidays, and so it missed out on the global market mayhem in response to the unveiling of the U.S.'s "reciprocal" tariffs on its trading partners. Once trading resumed, it, to some extent, joined its global peers in being down 1.0% for two days until the announcement of the 90-day suspension of tariffs, after which it ticked upwards to close at an all-time monthly high -although the all-time daily high was mid-month (chart below). The market's technical picture continues to be positive, and the consolidation of the last few weeks is likely to continue for some time, given the uncertainty over the direction of the world's economy from the evolving U.S. sanctions -a great deal of uncertainty remains, in which the positives of the 90-day tariff suspension, might be replaced by a U.S.-China trade war, or the 90 days will lapse before enough "beautiful" deals are agreed on. Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover ( Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of April 30th. Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades1 ) The market's action in closing at an all-time-high, stands in sharp contrast to those of other global markets, which have recouped their "liberation day" losses, yet remain down year to date. Moreover, it is remarkable considering the potential negative effects from Iraq's leverage to global oil demand. As argued in "Tariffs, Oil Prices, and the Budget", irrespective of the evolving U.S. tariff policy, their direct impact on Iraq is almost zero, as oil constitutes almost all of its exports to the U.S., which are exempt from reciprocal tariffs, but, the impact will be indirect and felt through a lower Iraqi oil price as a consequence of expected lower global demand for oil. On the one hand, this negative is aggravated by increased supply in the form of OPEC+'s aggressive unwinding of its prior production cuts for May and June, that probably will be repeated for the next few months as well. On the other hand, the positives are the U.S.'s increasing tough line against Iranian oil (crude, and products) exports to China, which would more than offset OPEC+'s increased production, should they be fully implemented, so is the potential decline of high-cost U.S. shale production, as well as the low levels of global oil stocks. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty over how these factors will play out as well as on the direction of the global economy, with the result that oil markets are in unchartered territory, and so oil prices continue to head lower, with Brent crude trading at four-year lows. Mirroring these concerns, the IMF, as part of lowering its global growth forecasts for 2025-26 in response to the U.S.'s tariffs, lowered those for oil exporters even more reflecting the added effects of lower oil prices, with its forecasts for Iraq lowered more than those of its peers among oil exporters (table below). IMF's Iraq's growth forecasts for 2025-26 versus growth figures for 2023-24 (Source: IMF May 2025 Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia; old forecast refers to IMF's October 2024 forecast, while new forecast is that of May 2025) The obvious question is: what gives? Especially considering that investors on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX), whether locals or the handful of foreigners, are fully aware of the effects of lower prices on Iraq, and should have reacted negatively without waiting for the oil market's weird dynamics or for the IMF's forecast downgrade. The logical answer, as asserted here in the past, most recently in "What Next After Two Gangbuster Years?", is that Iraq's economy is undergoing a significant structural transformation, following the country's decades of conflict, driven by two key dynamics -the cumulative positive effects of the country's relative stability and the acceleration of banking adoption instead of cash and informality that dominated the economy, that are in the early stages of their transformation of the economy. One such manifestation of the increased adoption of banking, last discussed under a year ago in "An Unfolding Structural Economic Transformation", is the significant growth, year-over-year and month-over-month, in the monthly values of Iraqi Dinar (IQD) transactions through cards (prepaid, debit, and credit) and e-wallets (chart below). These are at the early stages of the transition to the use of the banking system in the payments for transactions, and while from a small base, the trends are clear and mirror, with a time lag, those that took place elsewhere in emerging and frontier economies. It is this increased adoption of banking, that stands out as a positive in the IMF's updated forecasts, as seen through the figures for broad money growth (table above). While they were lowered from 6.4% to 4.3%, they still show solid growth as a reflection of the increased adoption of banking and the role that banks play in the expansion of the money supply. Card and E-wallet Monthly IQD Transactions (Source: CBI, AFC Research, data as of the end of December 2024) Finally, the market's positive performance, despite such negatives, should be seen in the context of a market that last peaked in January 2014, followed by a brutal seven-year bear market in which the RSISX USD Index was down 25.4% in 2014, 22.7% in 2015, 17.4% in 2016%, 11.8% in 2017, 15.0% in 2018, 1.3% in 2019, and 5.4% in 2020 -for a cumulative decline of 66.6%; and only surpassed the 2014 peak over a decade later in October 2024. Nevertheless, the negative effects of lower oil prices on the economy will become a negative headwind, reversing the positive tailwind of the past two years. Yet, the secular positives of the economic transformation should overcome the drag from the cyclical negatives and thus continue to drive the market's direction. The equity market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), having surpassed its 2014 peak by 10.3% by the end of April, has the potential to rally further reflecting the powerful dynamics discussed here over the last few months. However, risks remain given Iraq's recent history of conflict, extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, especially in the current uncertain global environment, as well as the risk that a widening of the current Middle East conflict will not be contained and evolve to destabilise the region. Notes: Daily market turnover is first adjusted by removing block, pre-arranged trades conducted during the special session following the regular trading session; subsequently, it is adjusted further by removing high-volume trades during regular market hours that show a pattern consistent with those of pre-arranged trades. High-volume trades are defined as those that are significantly higher than a given stock's average daily turnover; and as such are subjective. Moreover, trading volumes, and trading turnovers are used interchangeably here, and defined as the values of trading turnovers in Iraqi dinars (IQD) Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali's full report in pdf format . Mr Tabaqchali ( @AMTabaqchali ) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years' experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or investment.
Khaleej Times
10-04-2025
- Business
- Khaleej Times
Rabee Securities achieves 1.6% growth in Iraq Stock Exchange index amid regional market volatility
Rabee Securities, Iraq's leading financial services firm, reported a 1.6% growth in the Rabee Securities Iraq Stock Exchange Index for March 2025. This performance emerges as a standout achievement during a period where regional markets experienced varied economic pressures. While major markets in the region recorded declines, Iraq's financial sector demonstrated resilience and strategic adaptability. The RSISX Total Return Index reported an even stronger growth rate of 2.0%, driven by effective dividend management, strong investor engagement, and a steady flow of capital into key sectors. The broader regional landscape continues to navigate complex global economic conditions. Despite these challenges, Iraq's financial markets have shown robust performance and continued growth. Excluding cross transactions, monthly trading volume increased by 31% to $26.9 million. According to Tugba Tan Karakaya, Equity Analyst at Rabee Securities, the consistent growth in trading volume underscores Iraq's ability to attract and retain investor interest. 'The continued momentum in trading activity reflects a resilient investor base that recognises the potential within Iraq's financial markets. We are seeing substantial engagement across key sectors, with the banking sector particularly demonstrating strong performance and investor interest.' Strategic economic initiatives during March further highlighted Iraq's capacity to strengthen its economic foundations. The establishment of the National Mobile Telecommunications Company (NMTC) in partnership with Vodafone Group to develop the country's 5G network exemplifies a forward-looking vision aimed at enhancing infrastructure and revenue generation. Additionally, the $25 billion agreement with BP to develop four oilfields in Kirkuk, aiming to increase oil output by 450,000 barrels per day and elevate natural gas production to at least 400 million cubic metres annually, is expected to provide a substantial boost to the nation's economic landscape. The Central Bank of Iraq's partnership with Emirates Islamic Bank to enhance cooperation in Islamic banking is another critical step in diversifying Iraq's financial ecosystem. By expanding correspondent accounts and enabling Iraqi customers to invest in Islamic sukuks, this collaboration aims to broaden investment opportunities and foster greater financial inclusion. Rabee Securities' consistent performance against a challenging regional backdrop highlights Iraq's resilience, adaptability, and forward-thinking approach. As markets across the region continue to navigate complex conditions, Rabee Securities remains committed to delivering critical insights and strategic guidance to investors seeking sustainable growth.
Iraq Business
07-04-2025
- Business
- Iraq Business
Tabaqchali: Tariffs, Oil Prices, and the Budget
By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News . Tariffs, Oil Prices, and the Budget The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), was up 1.6% for the month, and 0.2% for the year. The market continued with the process of consolidating its gains that started in December, following a blistering 35.9% rally since late August, and just as in the past two months, spent the month in a tight range of -2.3% and +1.8% around its prior month's close. While, this consolidation could continue over the next few weeks, the market's technical picture continues to be positive, and the likely consolidation or pullback should be within its multi-month uptrend (chart below). Nevertheless, the process of consolidation could extend towards the lower band of the uptrend, due to the uncertainty over the health of the global economy following the unveiling of the U.S.'s radical tariffs on its trading partners. The tariff's direct impact on Iraq is almost zero, since oil constitutes almost all of its exports to the U.S., which are exempt from reciprocal tariffs, however, the impact will be indirect and felt through a lower oil price as a consequence of expected lower global demand for oil. Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover ( Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of March 27th. Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades 1) This lower global demand for oil, was compounded by supply increases as a result of the unexpected OPEC+ announcement in the wake of the U.S.'s unveiling of tariffs, that the group will triple its planned production increase in May. The actual increase will in fact be much less as a function of over-production by some group members, and the tripling of production, so far, is planned only for May. Nevertheless, the clear implication is that the group's planned unwinding of prior production cuts will proceed even in the face of the expected weaker demand for oil -versus the market's prior expectations that OPEC+ will delay the unwinding of production cuts when demand is weak. This might seem illogical at first sight, but it will soften the tariffs and potential counter tariffs blow to the world economy, make up for the potential loss of Iranian oil from the U.S.'s tough measures, and help in stimulating the eventual global recovery. However, it's negative for medium-term oil prices which, as measured by Brent crude futures contracts as of April 4th, have shifted (orange line, chart below) to the lower end of a three-year range -marked on the upper end by those of supply fears following the invasion of Ukraine (red line, chart below), and on the lower end by those following the emergence from COVID-19 at the end of 2021 (grey line, chart below). Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices As measured by Brent Futures Contacts (USD per barrel) ( Source: , AFC Research, as of April 4th; U.S. Energy Information Administration ( EIA ), as of March 31st ) This decline in expectations for future oil prices (orange line, chart above), has negative implications for Iraq's oil export revenues which in 2025 could translate to IQD 17.3 tn (USD 13.3 bn), or 16%, in less oil revenues than in 2024.2 Notwithstanding this, it was argued here in "Market Review for 2021 and Outlook for 2022" when expectations for future oil prices at the time were at the lower of this range (grey line, chart above), that they were positive for the country's financial position in that they provide the government with the wherewithal to continue with expansionary economic policies. While prices at the upper end of the range allow for the accumulations of budget surpluses, and at the lower end require the issuance of domestic debt to fund budget deficits, yet the overarching theme was, and remains, is that over the next few years, the direction is for decreasing oil prices. Thus, as reasoned in "What Next after Two Gangbuster Years", this implies increased debt issuance to augment government spending, that will play a big role in developing the country's bond market, which, in turn, with the growth of the equity market, will contribute to the evolution of the country's capital markets. The government is yet to submit the updated budget tables for 2025 as part of the expansionary three-year 2023-25 budget. However, the projections should be for slightly increased expenditures and decreased revenues in 2025 over 2024 in line with the changes of 2024 over 2023; and as such would lead to a deficit of Iraqi dinar (IQD) 65.0-67.0 tn (USD 50.0-51.5 bn, based on the official exchange rate of USD = IQD 1,300). However, in practice, there is a world of difference between budget projections and actual budget executions, mostly due to the historically low execution rates of investment spending and the plodding pace of the Iraqi bureaucratic machine. In both 2023 and 2024, the budget called for a deficit of around IQD 64.0 tn (USD 49.3 bn), however, the actual budget execution was vastly different. Actual deficits were significantly lower than projected, and were financed by the cash balances at the Ministry of Finance's (MoF) account at the Central of Iraq (table below). Actual Budget Data 2022-2024 ( Notes and data sources3 ) Accordingly, estimating actual budget execution for 2025 can be made by using current market projections for oil prices2, and assuming actual expenditures would be 10% higher than those for 2024, which implies a budget deficit of IQD 35.8 tn (USD 28.0 bn). This would be easily financed through the issuance of domestic debt, increasing domestic sovereign debt from IQD 83.1 tn (USD 63.9 bn) at the end 2024 up to IQD 118.9 tn (USD 91.5 bn) by the end of 2025 -a better outlook than initially estimated a few months ago, primarily due to better than expected budget performance in 2024. The 2025 budget, like that of 2023 and 2024, should continue to support the two key dynamics driving the transformation of the Iraqi economy, and subsequently the equity market. The first is the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability that the country has enjoyed over the past few years, which created a stable and predictable macroeconomic framework for businesses and individuals to operate in and to plan for capital investments on a scale last seen in the 1970's and early 1980's before the onset of the decades of conflict. The second is the significant structural fundamental development accelerating the adoption of banking and bringing about a transformation of the sector and its role in the economy. The equity market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U. S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), having surpassed its 2014 peak by 7.1% by the end of March, has the potential to rally further reflecting the powerful dynamics discussed here over the last few months. However, significant risks remain given Iraq's recent history of conflict, extreme leverage to volatile oil prices, as well as the risk that the widening of the current Middle East conflict will not be contained and evolve to destabilise the region Notes: Daily market turnover is first adjusted by removing block, pre-arranged trades conducted during the special session following the regular trading session; subsequently, it is adjusted further by removing high-volume trades during regular market hours that show a pattern consistent with those of pre-arranged trades. High-volume trades are defined as those that are significantly higher than a given stock's average daily turnover; and as such are subjective. Moreover, trading volumes, and trading turnovers are used interchangeably here, and defined as the values of trading turnovers in Iraqi dinars (IQD). The figure is highly dependent on actual oil exports, which can vary depending on Iraq's compliance with production agreements made by OPEC+, which in turn are likely to change further in 2025 depending on evolving oil market dynamics. Budget data, budget specifics, and sources are based on "Iraq's 2024 budget: Not what it appears when it first meets the eye", Ahmed Tabaqchali, The Atlantic Council, November 6th, 2024. Data for budget execution for 2024 has been updated since then using actual MoF data up to November 2024 and making estimates for December 2024. Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali's full report in pdf format . Mr Tabaqchali ( @AMTabaqchali ) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years' experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or investment.
