Latest news with #Rabobank
Agriland
6 hours ago
- Business
- Agriland
Rabobank: Uncertainty for global beef markets
Global cattle markets have all been trending higher in the first half of 2025, according to a recent RaboResearch report. However, since US President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, uncertainty and unpredictability have reverberated through the global beef market. With beef as one of the largest agricultural commodities traded by the US, any change to US trading arrangements has the potential to affect the beef market at a national and, in turn, a global level. With the global supply and demand situation, RaboResearch expects trade flows to be maintained. Source: RaboResearch However, this is likely to change if major trading blocs such as Europe and China become involved in a trade war with the US. Contracting supplies driving up cattle prices Global cattle markets have been trending higher in the first half of 2025, according to RaboResearch. European prices experienced an especially strong rise in the first quarter of 2025, as domestic supplies contracted while demand remained strong. Senior analyst – Animal Protein for RaboResearch, Angus Gidley-Baird said: 'The rise in European prices now puts them in line with the strong North American cattle prices, which continue to rise slowly. 'In both Europe and the US, disease and pests are affecting cattle supplies. In Europe, and now in the UK, bluetongue continues to affect the herd. 'Meanwhile, New World screwworm in Mexico has caused US authorities to close the border to Mexican cattle imports, and the risk of potential infestation in the US is increasing.' These health threats are challenging production in markets where cattle supplies are already historically low, likely further supporting already elevated cattle prices. Production declines Global beef production is expected to contract through the remainder of the year, with an overall contraction of 2% projected for the year, according to researchers at Rabobank. The largest contractions are expected to happen in Brazil (down 5%) and New Zealand (down 4%), with contractions also expected in Europe, the US, and China. Australia is one of the few regions expected to see a production increase. Global trade managing disruptions On April 5, tariffs were introduced for many countries exporting beef into the US. Additional, so-called reciprocal tariffs for identified countries are on hold until early July, and the US-China tariff escalation has also been put on hold until early August. While negotiations are ongoing, some redistribution of beef trade volumes around the world is becoming apparent. Reports are emerging that Chinese buyers are looking more toward Australian, New Zealand, and South American suppliers as US beef becomes more expensive. Global beef demand to remain stable Although the full extent of the trade war remains uncertain, RaboResearch has stated that it remains cautiously optimistic about beef demand and trade flows. 'Beef isn't being singled out as a targeted commodity, and most major exporters are only facing baseline tariffs,' Gidley-Baird continued. 'So early indications suggest that competitive positions will be maintained, albeit with added costs to the system. 'The global supply and demand situation should maintain current trade flows. But if the US-China tariff war escalates and Europe becomes more involved, this is likely to change. 'Much of the media attention has been on the imposition of tariffs, but this may only be the opener to the main event,' he added. However, RaboResearch said that while tariffs may have grabbed headlines, the real story will be the implications of shifting global trade dynamics.
Otago Daily Times
7 hours ago
- Business
- Otago Daily Times
Succession planning help
New farm succession planning workshops are in Otago this week. Rabobank New Zealand chief executive Todd Charteris said Rabobank was holding free one-day workshops for farmers about succession planning. The workshops were open to anyone and aimed to provide farmers with an understanding of business transition and succession and to aimed to give confidence to start and progress a succession plan. "We regularly ask our clients about the financial topics they want further information on, and this is one topic that has come up time and time again in the discussions our agri managers have with farmers and growers across the country." The new succession workshop topics include asset transfer, business continuance, intergenerational farm ownership, how to clarify roles and responsibilities, and identifying the next steps to make real progress, Mr Charteris said. Workshops would be held in Alexandra today and Oamaru tomorrow. A workshop was held in Balclutha yesterday. The Otago workshops follow a successful pilot event in Feilding last month. "We had about 25 farmers along to the pilot workshop we ran in Feilding and we had some really positive feedback on this." In addition to new workshops, the bank would launch a report, which examines succession on farm, at the Primary Industries New Zealand Summit in Christchurch later this month.
West Australian
17 hours ago
- Business
- West Australian
Australian farmers poised for near-record beef production as other countries produce less
Australian cattle farmers are gunning to exceed the beef production records they set last year, with cattle prices expected to 'remain steady' or potentially rise in the face of political tensions. Rabobank's new Australian beef seasonal outlook painted a positive picture for beef producers — who produced 2.57 million tonnes last year — with the nation's high beef production volumes being matched by growing global demand. The annual report, produced by the agribusiness banking specialist's RaboResearch division, revealed the 'relatively-balanced' market would support stable prices and good returns for Australian beef producers. Report author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird, said successive favourable seasons – with the exception of ongoing significant dry areas in Victoria and south-east South Australia – had allowed Australian cattle numbers to build. 'The increased calving from this larger cattle inventory is now flowing into markets as finished cattle, with 2024 setting a new record (2.57Mt) in Australian beef production,' Mr Gidley-Baird said. Rabobank modelling indicates that the National Young Cattle Indicator should trade between 360¢/kg and 425¢/kg lwt (liveweight – the weight of a live animal) in 2025 with an average across the year of 409¢/kg. 'This would be a 23 per cent increase on the average price of 2024,' Mr Gidley-Baird said. 'And modelling for 2026 shows a range of 400¢/kg to 420¢/kg with an average across the year of 410¢/kg.' Mr Gidley-Baird said higher cash receipts would offset an expected rise in costs, leading to a lift in farm cash income. The number of cattle turned off this year is expected to remain high, with high carcase weights meaning the production volume would remain close to last year's record. The beef production boom comes as Australia's competitors temper their production this year, creating demand for imports and reducing competition in Australian export markets. Brazil's beef production was set to plummet five per cent, or 555,000t, while US production would dip 100,000t and China 40,000t. With these factors in mind, Mr Gidley-Baird said it was likely cattle prices would remain steady or even rise. 'However, as we have seen in the first four months of the year, there remain uncertainties around trade, with the imposition of tariffs and geopolitical tensions that can lead to trade disruptions,' Mr Gidley-Baird said. 'Notwithstanding, 2025 is shaping up to be a good year for the Australian beef cattle industry with steady prices and strong production.' The US is flagged to remain Australia's biggest beef export market, which Mr Gidley-Baird said would drive 'strong import demand and higher prices' — despite US President Donald Trump's tariffs on Australian beef imports. Rabobank's report echoed prior industry forecasts that the US was entering a period of cattle-herd rebuild, but predicted it would 'be minor' this year. The report revealed Australia's domestic beef consumption, per capita, would drop slightly this year due to ongoing economic pressures. But that figure could change as household incomes increase, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Zawya
5 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Wheat, corn prices ease as dollar strengthens
Chicago wheat futures eased slightly on Thursday with a stronger dollar helping to keep a lid on prices despite lower-than-expected U.S. crop ratings. Sluggish demand and expectations that a strong Northern Hemisphere harvest will keep the market well supplied also weighed on the market. The rise in the dollar was triggered by a U.S. federal court blocking President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect. A stronger dollar makes U.S. farm exports costlier for buyers with other currencies. The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was down 0.2% at $5.29-1/4 a bushel at 1032 GMT. The USDA on Tuesday rated only 45% of U.S. spring wheat in good to excellent condition, far below expectations, and showed a decline in the condition of U.S. winter wheat. A coming flip to better weather should help the young wheat crop but the low rating sets the scene for market scares if unfavourable weather patterns set in, wrote Reuters columnist Karen Braun. Elsewhere, crop news has been better. The European Commission on Wednesday slightly raised its forecast for usable production of common wheat in the EU in 2025/26. A strong wheat harvest in India is rapidly replenishing stocks, meaning the country won't need to import. While wheat stocks should rise in India, they won't in the rest of the world, analysts at Rabobank said, predicting CBOT prices would rise towards $6 a bushel over the course of 2025. "A big question mark is whether India could allow some exports," Rabobank said. "If India opens the export gates or Russian output ends up being bigger than expected following mild spring weather, we could see prices capped." CBOT corn prices were also lower, slipping 0.8% to $4.47-1/2 a bushel, while soybeans rose 0.2% to $10.50-1/2 a bushel. Jordan's state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday.
West Australian
6 days ago
- Business
- West Australian
ABS statistics show WA cattle farmers will help make 2025 another record-breaking year for red meat production
Farmers are beginning to see some relief from prolonged dry conditions in WA in early 2025, easing cattle turn-off and lifting average carcase weights. According to the Australia Bureau of Statistics' slaughter and production data for the first quarter of 2025 released on May 20, national production volumes are above levels from the same time last year, indicating they are on track to tip records once again. National beef production lifted to 679,000 tonnes while lamb production tipped 167,000 tonnes. In WA, beef production was 34,000 tonnes and lamb production was 16,000 tonnes. Meat and Livestock Australia senior market information analyst Erin Lukey said the relief from prolonged dry conditions in WA early in the year buoyed industry confidence. 'Producers were able to hold on to stock to make weights, resulting in lifted average carcase weights across species and reduced throughput,' she said. 'Cattle turn-off eased to 115,000 head, producing 34,000 tonnes of beef. This reduction was mainly due to improved conditions.' Ms Lukey said increased turn-off from feedlots led to a 5kg lift in average carcase weights to 293kg despite female slaughter staying relatively high. 'Lamb slaughter eased to 710,000 head, though a 2kg lift in average carcase weights to 23.2kg saw an overall lift in lamb production to 16,000 tonnes. 'This lift points to grain-fed stock but could also indicate more meat breeds being turned off across the State.' Ms Lukey said mutton slaughter, production, and carcase weights eased to 624,000 head, 16,0000 tonnes and 24.9kg. 'Due to more positive conditions coming through, producers held on to breeding stock, dropping turn-off,' she said. Rabobank's Australian beef seasonal outlook 2025 released on May 26 also indicated Australia was posed to equal, if not rival, meat production levels of 2024. Report author Angus Gidley-Baird said the high beef production volumes are being matched by growing global demand — with the relatively-balanced market expected to support stable prices and good returns for Australian beef producers. 'Successive favourable seasons – with the exception of ongoing significant dry areas in Victoria and south-east South Australia – have allowed Australian cattle numbers to build,' he said. 'The increased calving from this larger cattle inventory is now flowing into markets as finished cattle, with 2024 setting a new record (2.57 million tonnes) in Australian beef production.' Senior animal proteins analyst Mr Gidley-Baird said it was also fortunate for Australia that other major beef-producing countries are expected to see a decline in production in 2025. 'This creates demand for imports and reduces competition in Australian export markets, supporting demand for Australian beef,' he said. 'The outlook of high production balanced by growing global demand leads to the bank's expectation that Australian cattle prices will remain relatively steady through the course of 2025 with some potential upside.'
