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American Military News
2 hours ago
- Business
- American Military News
Tensions High As EU Leaders Head To China For Pivotal Summit
This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will meet with the Chinese president and prime minister in Beijing on July 24 in what is expected to be a tense EU-China summit with the war in Ukraine and a potential transatlantic trade war looming large in the background. Brussels will raise the usual concerns about human rights in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong with Beijing expected to quickly bat away any form of criticism. Instead, the most heated discussions will likely center around China's support for Russia's war in Ukraine and what the EU views as unfair Chinese trade practices, which have led to a ballooning deficit in Sino-European trade in favor of Beijing. Briefing the media before the summit, European Union officials underlined that the EU presidents are expected to be 'direct, open and constructive' but are also 'ready to defend our interest.' 50 Years Of Diplomatic Ties The summit was meant to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations between China and the bloc, but don't expect too many niceties or concrete deliverables of any kind. Given that both sides are keen to showcase their green credentials, there were hopes in the EU that they would at least agree on a common declaration on the climate, but it is very uncertain if even this will materialize. This stands in sharp contrast to the EU-Japan summit held the day before in Tokyo, where a 24-page declaration covering a broad policy agenda was expected, including progress on bilateral security ties and a rare earths deal. The key meeting to look out for in Beijing is the morning session, when von der Leyen and Costa will have a 'geo-strategic' discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Have The Gloves Come Off Regarding Ukraine? Ukraine will take up a big part of the meeting, which comes just a few weeks after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told European diplomats in Brussels that his country could not accept a Russian defeat in the war. Brussels has long sought not to antagonize China too much on the issue, but the gloves appear to have come off, at least to a certain extent. EU officials now say openly that 80 percent of dual-use items used by Russia in its war effort originate from China. Brussels has also criticized Beijing's continued export of components like drone engines to Moscow. China has also been targeted — both directly and indirectly — in the latest EU sanctions package on Russia agreed last week. Several Chinese companies and a handful of financial institutions are now blacklisted, with the Chinese Commerce Ministry already criticizing the move. The fact that Brussels now feels confident and can find unanimity to target Beijing in this way is something new. New EU restrictions, such as a ban on refined petroleum products made from Russian crude oil and processed in third countries, are also expected to affect China indirectly. An EU official involved in summit preparations told RFE/RL that no major shift is expected in Beijing's 'no-limits partnership' with Moscow, but Brussels hopes for modest steps, such as tighter customs and financial controls on dual-use goods. Trade Deficit The afternoon discussion with Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang will focus on the economic relationship and is expected to be equally delicate. The EU and China are each other's second biggest trading partners with trade reaching $2.3 billion daily. But it's the trade deficit that is irking Brussels. Compared to last year, it has doubled to the current $350 billion, with subsidies, procurement barriers, and export controls cited by the EU as real irritants. No major breakthroughs are expected in Beijing, but EU officials hope China might at least acknowledge the concerns and take steps to stimulate domestic demand or address imbalances. Brussels will also hint at possible reciprocal measures, referencing past actions against Chinese electric vehicles and dairy products. But the question is how far the bloc is really ready to go. It does rely on China for critical minerals and permanent magnets — items that are essential for pretty much all modern technologies. And, despite the EU's best efforts to strike new trade deals with the likes of Australia, India and Indonesia to 'de-risk' from China, the shortfall will not be covered immediately. Beijing knows this as well. And then there is the delicate issue of EU-US relations. Unless a deal can be found in the coming days, American tariffs of 30 percent will hit the EU on August 1 with Brussels poised to strike back with countermeasures on US products worth billions in a move that will derail transatlantic trade. One EU diplomat told RFE/RL that this was 'a prospect that has the Chinese rubbing their hands in sheer delight,' as Beijing has long sought to drive a wedge between Brussels and Washington. So, expect China in the next few days to very much push the narrative that it, together with Europe, now represents the rules-based international trade order and that the real distorter of commerce and protectionism isn't to be found in Beijing but in Washington. Depending on what is happening with the transatlantic trade talks, the EU might just be tempted by such rhetoric.
American Military News
2 hours ago
- Politics
- American Military News
Trump's Deadline For A Deal Looms Over Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks
This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. Ukrainian and Russian delegations are due to meet on July 23 for peace talks, the third round in a series of negotiations that began on May 16 — and the first since US President Donald Trump threatened to impose new sanctions on Moscow if it doesn't reach a deal with Kyiv by early September. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this week that the negotiations would be held in Istanbul on July 23. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov eventually confirmed that, telling journalists on July 23 that the talks would take place in the evening. The first two meetings, which lasted no more than an hour or two, produced agreements on sizable prisoner swaps and the exchange of the remains of some of the soldiers killed in the biggest war in Europe since 1945. But there was no sign of progress toward a cease-fire, which Russia has resisted for months, let alone a comprehensive peace deal. On the contrary, the sides have exchanged memorandums laying out their positions, which are separated by a huge gap on key issues from territory to security and more. On July 21, Peskov said they were 'diametrically opposed so far.' Expectations for the talks are low. Aside from potential further prisoner exchanges, 'my instinct is to say I expect nothing,' Kadri Liik, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in an e-mailed comment. 'I do not see either Kyiv or Moscow modifying their basic positions.' At the same time, analysts say, both sides may feel that given Trump's continued efforts to push them towards peace, they cannot afford to abandon the process at this point – and that they, in addition to reuniting prisoners with their families, may have something to gain. 'A Political Game' 'I suspect both Kyiv and Moscow are looking to show the US, with its 50-day deadline and newfound willingness to sell, if not give, weapons to Ukraine, that they are…eager and willing to negotiate (and that any lags are therefore the fault of the other side),' Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group, told RFE/RL. Sam Greene, a professor at the Kings Russia Institute in London and director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, offered a similar view. 'I think that there is a political game going on, which revolves, frankly, around the commitment of the Trump administration to some version of this process, and a sense that neither side really is willing to lose what they take to be the goodwill of the Trump administration.' After several months in which he repeatedly criticized Zelenskyy and cast blame on Kyiv for the lack of progress toward peace, which he had said he could achieve in a day or two after taking office in January, Trump has taken aim at Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. In particular, he has expressed mounting anger over Russia's massive air attacks on Ukrainian cities and has described Moscow as an obstacle to peace. 'I think the Ukrainians will want to make sure that that continues,' Greene said. 'And they think that one way to help that continue is to project goodwill — to say, 'Look, we are willing to talk with the Russians, the problem is the Russians. And so, you know, President Trump, you are right to be frustrated with them.'' Zelenskyy, Oliker said, 'may be trying to raise that bar by saying these talks should lay groundwork for a meeting between him and his Russian counterpart, something Moscow has rejected since negotiations resumed in May and Zelenskyy famously showed up for a first meeting and Putin did not.' Seeking to blunt such efforts by Kyiv, Peskov said on July 22 that there is 'a lot of work to be done before we can talk about the possibility of some top-level meetings.' He also suggested the chances of substantial progress are almost nonexistent, saying, 'There is no reason to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles — it is hardly possible in the current situation.' 'A Closing Window' But Putin may believe Moscow has far more to gain — or less to lose — by continuing negotiations rather than by rejecting them. 'From the Russian side, there does not appear to be any indication that they're interested in a peace deal or even a cease-fire. But they're not interested in seeing the Trump administration walk away from the table entirely,' Greene said. 'And so they have to make at least a show of some kind of willingness to engage. Otherwise, they do risk a more significant pivot [against Moscow and in favor of Kyiv] in US policy.' 'On the face of it Kyiv would look to be in the weaker position, with Russia's slow advances continuing, US support uncertain, and other backers scrambling to assure continued assistance,' Oliker said. But 'the Kremlin surely knows Russia's own economic and political fault lines better than anyone else does, and Ukraine's European backers have ably demonstrated their intent to keep Kyiv in the fight.' 'Moscow may read American willingness to keep weapons coming, albeit for a price, as an indicator that the Trump administration is becoming more favorable to Ukraine,' she said. 'This would both imply more wherewithal for Kyiv and, whether or not the Kremlin truly fears American sanctions threats, a closing window for Moscow to cut deals with Washington.' So, Moscow may be hoping for a US pivot back in the other direction, with Trump placing at least partial blame on Kyiv, reconsidering plans for putting more weapons in Ukraine's hands, and, come September, holding back on the threatened sanctions. On July 8, Trump said 'we get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin.' A week later, in comments where he issued the 50-day ultimatum and announced plans to get more Patriot air defense batteries and other weapons to Ukraine by funneling them through Europe, Trump further focused on Moscow as an obstacle to peace, saying he was 'very unhappy…with Russia.' But he also stressed that he hoped the push for a deal within 50 days would 'have an impact on Ukraine' as well, saying, 'All of a sudden, they may feel emboldened and maybe they don't want [a deal] — this is a very difficult situation.' Still, it could be hard for Russia to dispel Trump's concerns about its commitment to seeking peace. On July 21, Peskov stressed that while Moscow welcomes new talks, the 'most important thing for us is to achieve our goals,' which he said 'have not changed' since Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow's Maximalism He did not enumerate the goals, but Russia has put forth several conditions for peace that Kyiv says are unacceptable. Among them: Ukraine ceding five regions that Moscow claims as its own, including the parts that its forces do not occupy; permanent neutrality for Ukraine; and strict limits on the size of its military. While the prospects for progress toward peace may be dim, exchanges of prisoners and the remains of the dead are a meaningful outcome, 'particularly to the families involved and prisoners involved,' Greene said. 'Even if there is no real progress, but the two sides agree to new humanitarian measures, building on the prisoner exchanges arranged in their previous talks and returning more Ukrainian citizens, including children, home, that is also valuable,' Oliker said. Beyond that, Greene said that despite the wide divide between the firmly stated stances of the two sides, 'at some point there will be a breakthrough in negotiations, and nobody's going to telegraph that beforehand. The only way you're going to find out when that happens is if you continue to meet.'
American Military News
a day ago
- Politics
- American Military News
Will Trump's 50-Day Deadline Shift Putin? Doubtful, Analysts Say
This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. US President Donald Trump handed the Kremlin a clear warning this week, announcing plans for weapons supplies to Kyiv via Europe and saying the United States will impose 'very severe tariffs' on Russia if it doesn't reach a deal on the war in Ukraine within 50 days. Trump did not specify whether a cease-fire would suffice, or only a comprehensive peace deal. Either way, many analysts say it's unlikely to happen. Here's why. Territorial Aims Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals clearly go far beyond the conquest of part of Ukraine: He has made plain that he wants to subjugate the country and weaken NATO and the West, restoring a measure of Moscow's Soviet-era sway over swaths of Europe. But a more immediate aim is all about territory. Russia occupies about 20 percent of Ukraine. In addition to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has controlled since 2014, Putin formally and falsely claims that the Ukrainian mainland regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson are now Russian — including the substantial portions that Russia does not occupy. Russia has said a full Ukrainian withdrawal from those four regions is a prerequisite of any peace deal — a demand that Kyiv says is unacceptable. And while analysts say Putin could weather any backlash at home if he agreed to a pact that would limit Russia's presence to the land it now holds, he has given zero indication that he might do that. On the contrary, Russia has stuck to this demand in its rhetoric. On the ground, it has sought to make its claim a reality, pressing forward in the Donetsk region in particular and bearing down on the ruined city of Pokrovsk. In one of the first Russian reactions to Trump's remarks, Kremlin-aligned lawmaker Konstantin Kosachyov said on Telegram that 'oh so much can change on the battlefield in 50 days.' Russia could seek to step up its offensive in the coming weeks, pushing to advance not just in the provinces it claims but also elsewhere, such as in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions north of Donetsk. In June, Putin issued a thinly veiled threat to try to capture the city of Sumy. Still, there actually is a limit to what can change in six weeks on the battlefield, where incremental Russian gains have come at a massive cost in terms of casualties, which are estimated to be close to 1 million killed or wounded since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. But while there is no way Russia can seize the remaining parts of the four regions by September — areas that include the capitals of Zaporizhzhya and Kherson — that may only sharpen Putin's desire to secure control over them on paper ahead of any deal. 'To me, it's clear that Putin does not want any cease-fire, at least not until he gains control over all the regions that are defined as Russian in his version of the constitution,' Dmitry Gudkov, a former opposition lawmaker in the Russian parliament, told Current Time on July 16. 'In essence, it would mean Ukraine's capitulation.' 'Ultimatums Are Unacceptable' Trump has sought to broker an end to the war in Ukraine since he took office six months ago, following an election campaign in which he said he could get it done in a day or two. Facing pushback from Putin, most notably in the form of his carefully worded rejection of the US call for a 30-day cease-fire, Trump has had harsh words for Putin in recent weeks. But the 50-day warning was the first time Trump has given the Kremlin an ultimatum — a form of pressure that Putin, who has made demands that other countries treat Russia as an equal a formal part of his foreign policy, does not seem to like. So while many in the West have been eager for Trump to make specific demands on Putin, it's not clear whether an ultimatum increases or decreases the chances of a deal. Putin has not spoken publicly about Trump's remarks, and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said nothing specific about them. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who oversees Moscow's ties with the US, said on July 15 that 'any attempts to make demands, especially ultimatums, are unacceptable to us.' 'If we cannot achieve our goals through diplomacy, then the [war against Ukraine] will continue,' Ryabkov said, delivering the closest thing so far to an official rejection of Trump's call for a deal within 50 days — by September 1 or 2, depending on how it's counted. 'This is an unshakable position.' The Blame Game The Kremlin may hope that Trump's turn against Putin in recent weeks is not so unshakable — and that if there's no deal come September, the pendulum will swing back and the US president will lay at least part of the blame on Kyiv. One prominent view in Russia is that Trump's current focus is 'transient' and the increased support for Ukraine is 'a maneuver designed to increase pressure on Putin and test whether this approach yields results,' Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on X. Those who hold this view believe that when 'it becomes evident that such pressure is ineffective — expected to be soon — Trump is likely to revert to a diplomatic course, including exerting pressure on Ukraine to reach a compromise,' Stanovaya wrote ahead of Trump's remarks. Trump has put much of the blame on Ukraine at times in the past. And an aspect of his July 14 remarks that flew mostly under the radar was that he stressed that he hopes the push for a deal within 50 days will 'have an impact on Ukraine also.' 'We want to make sure that Ukraine does what they have to do,' Trump said. 'All of a sudden, they may feel emboldened and maybe they don't want [a deal] — this is a very difficult situation.' 'Not Ready For Prime Time' In any case, though, there are at least two reasons why the threat of sanctions seems unlikely to push Putin much closer to a deal with Ukraine to halt or end the war at this point. One is that it is unclear how the measures Trump threatened — chiefly, tariffs or sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil — would work. Trump's July 14 announcement was 'laudable in its intention to hit Russia on the economic side' but 'not ready for prime time in its details,' Daniel Fried, a fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank and an architect of US sanctions against Russia after it seized Crimea in 2014, said on the podcast Just Security. It's also unclear how well they would work if they are put in place, so the Kremlin could be inclined to take its chances. 'China and India are the top two recipients of Russian energy exports, and the expectation that they will pressure Putin to end his war in the next 50 days seems naïve,' Michael McFaul, a political science professor at Stanford University and the US ambassador to Russia in 2012-14, wrote in Time Magazine. The other reason is that Russia has weathered Western sanctions so far and the Kremlin has made that a point of pride, slotting it into the overarching narrative that Russia — in fact the aggressor in an unprovoked war — is fighting a defensive campaign in a major showdown with West — and winning. Against that backdrop, appearing to bend in the face of the tariff threat is something Putin would be loath to do unless absolutely necessary. 'Two Big Contingencies' The same may go for the stepped-up weapons shipments that Trump has promised Ukraine, with NATO allies footing the bill by purchasing Patriot air-defense missile systems and other arms from the United States or sending Kyiv weapons they have already received. Fried, the former sanctions architect, said that if Trump's announcements on weapons for Ukraine and economic pressure on Russia are 'crystallized, sharpened, and implemented,' it could make a big difference in terms of the war and the path to peace. 'Two big contingencies: Get the weapons flowing and keep them flowing; and crystallize our policy options for hitting the Russian economy. You do both and Ukraine's in a very different position,' he said. 'If Putin's assumptions or his hopes for a US failure of leadership and abandonment of Ukraine prove to be false, then he may have to settle.' Other analysts suggest that's not about to happen anytime soon, if at all. 'I think…we're going to need to see the United States showing a lot more muscle if it really is going to be able to bring Putin to the table in any kind of meaningful way,' Russia expert Mark Galeotti said on the This Is Not A Drill podcast. The prevailing view in Russia is that 'none of these developments will alter Putin's strategy of coercing Kyiv into capitulation by any available means,' Stanovaya wrote. 'Putin will not be beaten out of his war optimism easily, and he believes [Trump] has few cards,' Alexander Gabuev, director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, wrote on X on July 14. As far back as winter 'it was clear that Vladimir Putin is convinced [of] one thing: time is on his side,' Gabuev wrote. 'This is why he isn't interested in a deal [that's] not on his terms.'
American Military News
a day ago
- American Military News
Russian Photographer Gets 16 Years For Sharing Public Soviet Bunker Data
This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. In Vladimir Putin's Russia, sharing details of publications openly sold in bookstores can result in a 16-year prison sentence. This has been the fate of Grigory Skvortsov, a 35-year-old photographer and musician from Perm. Skvortsov was one of thousands across Russia who purchased the 2021 publication Secret Soviet Bunkers by historian Dmitry Yurkov. The book reproduced scores of once secret diagrams of Soviet installations that had recently been declassified. Some supplementary scans were made available with the book, which Skvortsov purchased. He later shared some of those documents with an unnamed American journalist. In November 2023, Skvortsov was being visited by a friend when Russian police entered his apartment in Perm. According to a relative, police filmed what happened next. 'He was beaten and insulted,' the relative of the photographer told RFE/RL's Siberia Realities. 'Then they forced him to say on camera who he sent information from Yurkov's book to.' The relative, who asked not to be named, says it had been months since communication between the American and Skvortsov had taken place and police had to remind him of the American's identity. 'They told him the name themselves, they 'suggested' it to him,' he said. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia has drastically expanded the scope of what can be deemed a 'state secret.' No money changed hands in Skvortsov's interaction with the American, and friends say the documents were sent to help out a like-minded person — common practice among urban explorers and history enthusiasts. 'He did not pursue any selfish goals,' a friend told RFE/RL's Siberia Realities. Skvortsov's friends say architecture had always been a passion of his. In 2010 he graduated from the Perm Construction College with a degree in architecture, but he soon earned success as a photographer. 'He had no equal in photographing industrial sites. He loved it: roofs, abandoned buildings — he could make eye-candy from any workshop,' a colleague says. 'Real estate companies in Perm and elsewhere in Russia ordered advertising shoots from him,' the Perm associate recalls. 'I remember there was even an exhibition of his in the building of the local administration. He was very much in demand.' In 2017, Skvortsov founded the 'industrial ambient' band Jagath. 'We create our music in abandoned industrial places — at the bottom of a damp underground sewer shaft and inside huge hollow oil tanks,' Jagath's website says. The band's music is described as niche, but it was released by a British record label, and attracted attention from Sonic Seducer Magazine, a German music publication. It was during an interview with that magazine that Skvortsov voiced his opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Friends of Skvortsov assume that someone who saw his interview with Sonic Seducer informed on him to Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). When asked how Russia's security agencies discovered Skvortsov had given the historical materials to an American journalist, the photographer's relatives say they believe surveillance of him began after the interview, and about a year before his November 2023 arrest. Skvortsov says an acquaintance came under scrutiny from the FSB over sharing materials from the Soviet Secret Bunkers book. After this, the photographer contacted the American journalist and asked that the materials he shared not be republished anywhere. In letters to friends, Skvortsov says the Russian authorities opened the case against him in order to hide their own failures in not noticing potentially sensitive information was being freely sold and passed around online. 'I did not have access to state secrets and had no malicious intent,' the photographer wrote from detention. 'The data was not protected by the state…. These facts are being ignored by the prosecution and the courts, who are treating the case formally, clearly out of fear of repression from the FSB.' Supporters of the photographer who formed their own Telegram group say they intend to appeal his sentence.
American Military News
a day ago
- Politics
- American Military News
Russian Strikes On Cities Across Ukraine Kill Child Ahead Of New Round Of Peace Talks
This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission. KYIV — Russian air strikes targeted several Ukrainian cities early on July 22, leaving one child dead and at least two dozen injured a day ahead of a fresh round of peace talks expected in Turkey. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address late on July 21 that preparations for another prisoner exchange with Russia, along with the peace talks planned for July 23, were under way. Two days earlier, Zelenskyy said he had sent Moscow an offer to hold a new round of talks in the coming week after negotiations between the countries last month made no progress toward ending the ongoing war. The Kremlin has yet to confirm the date or location for the next round of talks, saying only that it was waiting for more details while adding that the two sides still held 'diametrically opposed' positions on ways to end the long, deadly conflict. If the sides do meet in Turkey, it would be the first face-to-face gathering in seven weeks. The Turkish government said the talks will be held in Istanbul. 'There is our draft memorandum — there is a draft memorandum that has been handed over by the Ukrainian side. There is to be an exchange of views and talks on these two drafts, which are diametrically opposed so far,' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on July 21. The Kremlin has said it welcomes new talks but that the 'most important thing for us is to achieve our goals. Our goals are clear, obvious. They have not changed.' It also has insisted that any peace agreement sees Ukraine cede control and withdraw from four regions that Russia illegally annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured. Kyiv must also renounce its bid to join NATO and accept strict limits on its armed forces — demands Ukraine and its Western allies have flatly rejected. Russian state news agency TASS quoted an unnamed source as acknowledging the next round of talks was likely to be in Turkey but could be held on July 24 or 25. US President Donald Trump in recent weeks has voiced frustration over the lack of progress on a cease-fire and last week gave Moscow a 50-day deadline to agree to a deal or face tougher sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin has turned down calls from Zelenskyy to meet him in person and has often questioned the elected Ukrainian leader's legitimacy. Previous rounds of talks were held in Istanbul, on May 16 and June 2. Those talks led to prisoner swaps and the exchange of remains of fallen soldiers but no apparent movement on a potential cease-fire. Meanwhile, during the night of July 21-22, Russia struck the Ukrainian regions of Sumy in the northeast, Odesa in the south, and Kramatorsk in the east. According to Oleksandr Honcharenko, the head of the Kramatorsk military administration, a boy born in 2015 was killed and five others wounded when a Russian glide bomb struck an apartment building. The city of Sumy also saw several wounded when five apartment buildings caught fire during an air attack, while more than 20 drones attacked the coastal city of Odesa, leaving more than a dozen casualties, including a child. Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, Russia claims it is not targeting civilian infrastructure with its air strikes. Ukrainian authorities and international agencies, such as the United Nations and the European Union, have accused Russia of intentionally targeting civilians, in what they say amounts to war crimes.
