Latest news with #RafalTrzaskowski
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
A bitter election won't derail Poland's economic miracle
It will be a bitter contest, with insults hurled in both directions, dire warnings about the end of civilisation if the other guy wins, and a close result that the loser won't accept as legitimate. Poland will elect a new president on Sunday, in a run-off between the liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and his Right-wing opponent, Karol Nawrocki, supported by the populist-nationalist Law and Justice opposition party. The result is too close to call. But one point is certain. Either way, it won't derail the Polish economic miracle. In reality, with emigrants returning from countries such as the UK, and with its GDP per capita overtaking many more developed nations, the Polish economy will survive its divisive politics – and keep on growing. The contest has been as bitter as any in the developed world. Over the last few weeks, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki have traded insults that make British politics look mild by comparison. Nawrocki has brushed aside allegations that he took advantage of an ill senior citizen to acquire his council flat at a huge discount; and that he helped arrange prostitutes for guests at the luxury Grand Hotel in the seaside resort of Sopot when he worked there as a security guard. Meanwhile his opponent has been accused of breaching campaign spending rules. The contest pits the liberal pro-EU centrists of Polish prime minister Donald Tusk against the Trumpian nationalists of Law and Justice. To listen to some of the rhetoric you would think the future of Western civilisation was at stake. They hate each other with a passion. The blunt truth, however, is this. To Poland's miracle economy it won't make much difference either way. Over the last decade, the country has emerged as one of Europe's most successful economies. It sailed through the financial crash and then the pandemic without ever slipping into even a mild recession, and has been chalking up 3pc to 4pc annual growth rates for the last 10 years. This year it is forecast to expand by another 3.3pc, easily surpassing the moribund economies of Germany, France and of course the UK. That consistently stunning performance is starting to be reflected both in rapidly rising living standards and a booming stock market. The benchmark Warsaw index is up by 25pc this year already, and may well rise even higher over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Poland is forecast to overtake the UK and even Japan in GDP per capita by the end of the decade. It may well strengthen even further over the next few years. There are three reasons for that. First the huge Polish diaspora, with more than a million of its citizens in the UK, is starting to drift back home. They are starting to work out that the country they left behind is doing better than the one they moved to. As they return, they will bring skills, capital and contacts with them. Likewise, Polish companies may have started as sub-contractors of Western businesses but they are starting to become substantial operations in their own right, with many of them now expanding abroad (such as Pepco, the owner of Poundland in the UK). Finally, as Poland gets a lot wealthier it has developed a booming domestic market that generates plenty of demand. The days when it was a cheap manufacturing hub for German companies are fading into the past. On current trends, Polish companies will soon be outsourcing work to cheaper German or British factories instead of the other way around. Poland's success is often claimed as a victory for the EU. In reality, although the single market helped with the first wave of inward investment, Brussels did not have much to do with it (indeed, under the last government funds were withheld and it didn't make any significant difference to the rate of growth). It is based on a solid set of fundamental principles. Poland has relatively low taxes, with a corporate tax rate of 19pc, and a 9pc rate for smaller companies, and a top personal rate of income tax of 32pc, which is low compared to the rest of the Continent. It has little debt by European standards, with the debt-to-GDP ratio standing at just 55pc. It has wisely kept its own currency, and although it is meant to join the euro one day, conveniently it seems to never quite get around it (even the fiercely pro-EU Tusk isn't interested). And it has competitive markets, a smallish state, and a skilled workforce. There is nothing very complicated about it. These are the textbook ingredients for economic growth. It is just that the rest of Europe has forgotten them. The Left and Right trade in blows over cultural identity, abortion, immigration and integration into the rest of the EU. But on the fundamentals of the economy there is not much to choose between them. Both parties want to stay inside the EU but outside the single currency, by far the best mix for a fast-growing emerging economy. They both want to limit mass unskilled immigration (even Tusk is firm on that issue, and refuses to accept Poland's 'share' of asylum seekers). They both want to keep taxes and government spending under control, even if the two sides are as keen on bribing their supporters as politicians everywhere. And they both believe in standing up to Russian aggression; in Poland everyone knows what that can mean. The Poles argue with each furiously. We will see who wins the presidency later this year. Whoever it is will no doubt claim it is a turning point for the country. For its national identity, perhaps it will be. But it won't make any difference to the Polish economic miracle. It will keep on growing at a rapid rate – and on current trends in another decade it will be one of the wealthiest countries on the Continent. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
New York Times
9 hours ago
- Business
- New York Times
In Poland, Presidential Hopefuls Battle for Young Voters Who Don't Like Them
A tight presidential election this weekend in Poland hinges heavily on young voters, a restive demographic with a big stake in the direction of the country. But the two candidates facing off in a runoff election on Sunday share a big problem: Young Poles do not much like either of them. That is adding to the unpredictability of an election widely seen as pivotal for the future of the biggest economic and military power in the European Union's formerly communist East. It is also critical to efforts by the country's centrist prime minister, Donald Tusk, to unravel the legacy of his populist predecessor. In a first round of voting on May 18, voters aged 18 to 29 overwhelmingly supported anti-establishment candidates who failed to make it to the runoff. They mostly shunned the candidates competing on Sunday, who represent Poland's two dominant political parties — Civic Platform, led by Mr. Tusk; and Law and Justice, the former governing party led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. The runoff pits Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw who is backed by Mr. Tusk's party, against Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian and former boxer supported by Law and Justice. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
DW
21 hours ago
- Politics
- DW
Presidential runoff in Poland: Why every vote matters – DW – 05/30/2025
Rafal Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki? To many Polish voters, the question isn't about who they want, but who they don't want to see in office. Eva says she's never skipped a Polish election. She's been living in Germany for 40 years, she has a German passport, and she still takes part in every election in Poland. She first came to Germany as a Polish refugee and still has family there. Between 2015 and 2023, when the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party was in power, she saw herself as fighting for democracy and the rule of law in Poland. Some 2 million people with Polish roots live in Germany. At least 850,000 of them only have Polish citizenship. Anyone with a Polish passport is eligible to take part in Poland's elections, but only an estimated 80,000 Poles in Germany made use of this right in the first election round that took place two weeks ago. To make use of their voting right, Polish citizens living abroad need to register with the appropriate consulate, where they must show a valid Polish ID or passport. But many Polish migrants in Germany don't have one, and the long journey to the nearest election booth can be daunting. All told, there are 54 election circuits in Germany located in large cities such as Hamburg, Berlin, Cologne, Munich, or Dortmund. That means that many Poles wanting to cast their votes have to travel 200 kilometers (124 miles) or more. There are no absentee ballots. DW asks voters in Warsaw what they are hoping for To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video "To me, voting is a duty that I am happy to fulfill," Eva says. That's why she's joining 112,000 other Poles in Germany as they cast their votes in the upcoming presidential runoff, slated for June 1. By May 27, a quarter more had signed up for this round than had for the last. That's a new record. Karol Nawrocki trailing in Germany The results from the first presidential election indicate that Poles in Germany have different voting preferences than their fellow citizens in Poland. In both countries, voters favored the liberal, pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. In Germany, this preference was higher, with 40% showing support, versus 31% in Poland. Meanwhile, the nationalist, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki made it to second place in Poland with 29.5% of the vote. In Germany, however, he came in third, behind the far-right firebrand Slawomir Mentzen, who won 18.8% of the vote. In Germany, Karol Nawrocki has less support than he does in Poland Image: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images Nawrocki only scored 14.5% of the vote in Germany — far below the 29.5% backing he received at home. Trzaskowski's victory, on the other hand, came as no surprise. Five years ago, he beat the national conservative and incumbent President Andrzej Duda with 70% of the German vote. In Poland, however, he lost the election. What's surprising is the fact that Mentzen made it to second place in Germany, and third place in Poland. Overall, right-wing candidates brought in good results in Germany. In total, 28% of voters in Germany backed either Mentzen or the far-right, antisemitic lawmaker Grzegorz Braun. In Poland, it was about 22%. Menzten is a member of the hard-right Confederation party. He is a member of the European Parliament, where he shares a faction with the so-called Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which Germany"s federal domestic intelligence suspects to be right-wing extremist. Braun recently lost his parliamentary immunity after he used a fire extinguisher to put out candles lit in the Polish parliament to mark the Jewish holiday Hanukkah, and attacked a woman who tried to stop him. Voters wary of the two-party system Damian — not his real name — is from northern Poland and has worked in construction in Germany for years. He says he voted for Braun because "he knows how to appreciate Polish history. He preserves Polish identity." "Liberals don't care about that," the worker continues. "They want so badly to present themselves as Europeans, that they are making us servile in Brussels." In order to stop this, he says he "definitely" needs to take part in the election. Piotr says he couldn't image not fulfilling his civic duty. The self-proclaimed devout Catholic has a well-paying job in Germany, where he's been living for nearly 40 years. His children, who were born in Germany, only take part in German elections. But Piotr casts his ballot in both German and Polish elections. Piotr backed a right-wing candidate, because, as he says, he's "not part of the system" Image: Martyna Masztalerz/DW "I voted for Mentzen," he says. "He's intelligent and understands economics quite well. And above all, he's got nothing to do with the current system." Agnieszka Lada-Knefal, a political scientist specializing in Polish relations, believes this wariness of "the system" has been a key factor in determining the way many Poles in Germany cast their votes. "You can't simply call the voters who back Braun or Mentzen 'anti-European' or 'antisemitic'," the expert contends. "Above all, they're against the system. They don't want Trzaskowski or Nawrocki, because those two both represent the two-party system that has been in place for years. The emigrated, because they felt disadvantaged in this system. And they don't want to return as long as it's still in place. They want someone new." 'Our AfD' Eva says that people voting for right-wing extremists "are just voting against something." "They live here in Germany, they see the AfD gaining votes, and think to themselves, 'Why shouldn't we vote for "our" AfD?'," Eva explains. She says she's on the other side of the fence. In the past years, she's backed Trzaskowski and the center-right Civic Platform, the party of incumbent Prime Minister Donald Tusk. But in this year's first round of the presidential election, she voted for the social-democratic New Left party, for its pro-women's rights platform. For her, as she puts it, "it was a matter of the heart." Many female voters see no alternative to backing Rafal Trzaskowski Image: Martyna Masztalerz/DW Eva knew her candidate didn't stand a chance to win the election. Instead, she says she wanted to use her voice to back issues and demands that many Polish women care about — and to send a signal to Trzaskowski. She's convinced the liberal candidate will win the runoff. That's the only way Prime Minister Tusk's current government coalition could push through reforms that President Duda is currently blocking. Eva is certain she know who to back in the runoff. And she's not the only one. Every vote counts In front of a Polish church in southern Berlin, we meet another woman, much like Eva, on her way to mass. "All my Polish girlfriends agree," she says. "Rafal Trzaskowski is the only option. Who else?" Religion doesn't play a role, she adds. "Most Poles in Germany are progressive, open-minded and pro-European," Lada-Konefal explains. "To people like this, Trzaskowski is the candidate who guarantees that Poland will also move in this direction." Opinion polls see both remaining candidates neck-and-neck in the runoff. Every single vote could tip the scale. To many Polish voters, no matter whether in Germany or elsewhere, the election on Sunday is not so much about who they want, but who they don't want to see in office. Like choosing between the "lesser of two evils." Rafal Trzakowski won the first presidential election round by a thin margin Image: Kacper Pempel/REUTERS Dana agrees. She fled to Germany after the LGBTQ+ community increasingly came under attack while the PiS party was in power. "In the first round, I voted for the candidate from the Left, because only the Left party takes people like us seriously and advocates for us," she says. "On Sunday, I'll be voting for Trzaskowski, because he's not as bad as Nawrocki." She chooses her next words carefully. "The election won't do any good for us queer people, anway," she says. But a president from the PiS party could spell disaster for her community, she adds. Piotr, who would have preferred to see his right-wing candidate Mentzen in office, agrees that the upcoming runoff is about selecting the least bad option. "As long as it's not Trzaskowski," he adds. "His views change too often One day, he's Catholic, and another he's supporting the LGBT-movement. One day he's waving a Polish flag, and the next, it's a European flag, or even a rainbow flag. I just don't get it," the Polish voter explains. "Nawrocki is getting my vote." This article was translated from German.
Straits Times
a day ago
- Politics
- Straits Times
Punch-ups and tobacco pouches: Polish presidential race gets personal
Poland's conservative presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, center, arrives at the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC, in Jasionka, Poland, May 27, 2025. Alex Brandon/Pool via REUTERS Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, Civic Coalition presidential candidate, offers strawberries to media representatives during a visit to the Weglewski farm, ahead of the second round of Polish presidential election, in Buczek, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel Election banners of Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for Polish presidential election supported by Poland's main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS), and Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, Civic Coalition presidential candidate, are seen ahead of the second round of Polish presidential election, in Pabianice, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel WARSAW - The centrist frontrunner in Poland's knife-edge presidential election on Sunday says Poles know everything about him, contrasting that with the slew of media reports about his nationalist opponent's alleged past conduct. "The President of the Republic of Poland cannot be someone about whom we learn something every day that not only puzzles us, but often terrifies us," Rafal Trzaskowski, from the ruling Civic Coalition, told a rally in the southern Polish town of Chrzanow on Tuesday. The past of opposition Law and Justice-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki has dominated public debate - be it questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner or an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls. "All my sports activities were based on the strength of my heart, the strength of my muscles, my fists," Nawrocki, a historian and amateur boxer, told a debate when confronted over reports he had been involved in mass organised fights between football hooligans. "It was a fair competition, regardless of the form." He had previously denied wrongdoing in relation to accusations that he lied about owning the flat, a second property, and that he had acquired it from the elderly man in return for a promise of care which he did not provide. After questioning about the issue, he said he would give the flat to charity, dismissing what he called "media lies". Nawrocki also faced criticism for inserting a 'snus' tobacco pouch under his lip during a live debate, with an Opinia24 survey for private broadcaster TVN showing that 53% of respondents viewed this negatively. His Law and Justice party backers have accused the government of orchestrating the controversies with the help of Poland's special services and liberal media. The government rejects these accusations. Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has faced questions over whether a series of advertisements criticising his opponents subverted campaign spending rules. He also denies any wrongdoing. If he wins, the Polish government will be able to continue reforms to bring it into line with European Union norms on issues like judicial independence and LGBT rights. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to use his veto, as the current president has done, to block them, arguing that Poland should take a conservative path inspired by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. POLL NUMBERS Despite the stream of negative coverage, Nawrocki's polling numbers appear largely unscathed, with Trzaskowski's lead within the margin of error. A survey by CBOS showed that 99% of people who voted for Nawrocki in the first round would also back him in the second. Andrzej Rychard, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Science, said that the deep polarisation in Polish politics meant that many Law and Justice voters dismissed the allegations as untrue or decided that "even if it is true, it still does not bother me". Added to this Rychard said that Nawrocki had projected an image of himself as someone from a humble background who can get things done. "He comes rather from the bottom, that is, from difficult environments, which does not necessarily have to be a source of antipathy, on the contrary, it may be well-received by a large part of the electorate, who do not identify with the elite." Nawrocki's campaign say that Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski is an out-of-touch metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand ordinary Poles. They have mocked his fluency in five foreign languages, nicknaming him 'Bazur', a Polonised transcription of the French word 'bonjour'. For Trzaskowski's supporters, meanwhile, the allegations about Nawrocki make him completely unsuitable for the nation's highest office. "He has no idea about politics," said 68-year-old market trader Stanislaw, who declined to give his surname and repeated some of the allegations in the media reports to show why he did not trust him. Jacek, a 73-year-old pensioner who also declined to give his surname, took a different view. "He is a patriot, kind to people, an honest person, a strong person, which is exactly what we are missing," he said. Asked about Nawrocki's involvement in fights, he said "young people do those kinds of things". REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Reuters
a day ago
- General
- Reuters
Punch-ups and tobacco pouches: Polish presidential race gets personal
WARSAW, May 30 (Reuters) - The centrist frontrunner in Poland's knife-edge presidential election on Sunday says Poles know everything about him, contrasting that with the slew of media reports about his nationalist opponent's alleged past conduct. "The President of the Republic of Poland cannot be someone about whom we learn something every day that not only puzzles us, but often terrifies us," Rafal Trzaskowski, from the ruling Civic Coalition, told a rally in the southern Polish town of Chrzanow on Tuesday. The past of opposition Law and Justice-backed candidate Karol Nawrocki has dominated public debate - be it questions over his acquisition of a flat from a pensioner or an admission that he took part in orchestrated brawls. "All my sports activities were based on the strength of my heart, the strength of my muscles, my fists," Nawrocki, a historian and amateur boxer, told a debate when confronted over reports he had been involved in mass organised fights between football hooligans. "It was a fair competition, regardless of the form." He had previously denied wrongdoing in relation to accusations that he lied about owning the flat, a second property, and that he had acquired it from the elderly man in return for a promise of care which he did not provide. After questioning about the issue, he said he would give the flat to charity, dismissing what he called "media lies". Nawrocki also faced criticism for inserting a 'snus' tobacco pouch under his lip during a live debate, with an Opinia24 survey for private broadcaster TVN showing that 53% of respondents viewed this negatively. His Law and Justice party backers have accused the government of orchestrating the controversies with the help of Poland's special services and liberal media. The government rejects these accusations. Trzaskowski, meanwhile, has faced questions over whether a series of advertisements criticising his opponents subverted campaign spending rules. He also denies any wrongdoing. If he wins, the Polish government will be able to continue reforms to bring it into line with European Union norms on issues like judicial independence and LGBT rights. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to use his veto, as the current president has done, to block them, arguing that Poland should take a conservative path inspired by the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite the stream of negative coverage, Nawrocki's polling numbers appear largely unscathed, with Trzaskowski's lead within the margin of error. A survey by CBOS showed that 99% of people who voted for Nawrocki in the first round would also back him in the second. Andrzej Rychard, a sociologist from the Polish Academy of Science, said that the deep polarisation in Polish politics meant that many Law and Justice voters dismissed the allegations as untrue or decided that "even if it is true, it still does not bother me". Added to this Rychard said that Nawrocki had projected an image of himself as someone from a humble background who can get things done. "He comes rather from the bottom, that is, from difficult environments, which does not necessarily have to be a source of antipathy, on the contrary, it may be well-received by a large part of the electorate, who do not identify with the elite." Nawrocki's campaign say that Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski is an out-of-touch metropolitan liberal who doesn't understand ordinary Poles. They have mocked his fluency in five foreign languages, nicknaming him 'Bazur', a Polonised transcription of the French word 'bonjour'. For Trzaskowski's supporters, meanwhile, the allegations about Nawrocki make him completely unsuitable for the nation's highest office. "He has no idea about politics," said 68-year-old market trader Stanislaw, who declined to give his surname and repeated some of the allegations in the media reports to show why he did not trust him. Jacek, a 73-year-old pensioner who also declined to give his surname, took a different view. "He is a patriot, kind to people, an honest person, a strong person, which is exactly what we are missing," he said. Asked about Nawrocki's involvement in fights, he said "young people do those kinds of things".
