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Traders, economists heave a sigh of relief as India-Pakistan border tensions recede, ceasefire brings hope
Traders, economists heave a sigh of relief as India-Pakistan border tensions recede, ceasefire brings hope

Mint

time12-05-2025

  • Business
  • Mint

Traders, economists heave a sigh of relief as India-Pakistan border tensions recede, ceasefire brings hope

New Delhi: Cautious optimism has begun to seep in across Indian trade, industry, and economic circles amidst a fragile calm spawned by a ceasefire between sparring neighbours India and Pakistan. After intense border hostilities threatened to choke economic activity in key manufacturing and export hubs in the northern and western parts of the country, the ceasefire has brought a measure of relief to industry, four people directly involved in trade and related policy matters told Mint. The closure of at least 32 civilian airports across northern and western India in recent days and heightened checks at ports had started to disrupt trade flows and triggered an exodus of migrant workers from key industrial hubs. Traders are now hopeful that the ceasefire will ease nerves and reverse the migration. Also read | Operation Sindoor: A doctrinal shift and an inflection point Meanwhile, economists do not expect border tensions with Pakistan to impact India's economic growth. They expect the second half of the fiscal to make up for any loss of growth momentum on the back of multiple tailwinds such as a possible trade deal with the US later this year, a trade agreement with the UK that was concluded recently, predictions of a good monsoon, and strong monetary policy support from India's central bank. To be sure, with the ceasefire now in place, exporters and owners of manufacturing facilities are cautiously optimistic that migrant workers—from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, and West Bengal—who had begun to return home fearing prolonged disruptions, will be assuaged. Business slows Due to the migration, production had slowed in manufacturing centres like Amritsar, Jalandhar, Ludhiana, Surat, Bhuj, Kachchh and Rajkot—where textiles and engineering goods form the economic backbone, they said. 'With the ceasefire declared, we are hoping that those (workers) remaining will stay and those who have left will come back," one of the four people mentioned above, a textile unit owner in Ludhiana, said requesting anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter. 'There's definitely a shift in mood," said a Rajkot-based auto component exporter and manufacturer, the second of the four people mentioned above. 'If things hold steady over the next few days, we should be able to resume normal operations by mid-May." 'With the ceasefire in effect, key ports are expected to gradually ease heightened security protocols, and airports are likely to resume limited operations," said a government official, the third among the four mentioned earlier. 'The industry will now focus on ensuring that shipments meet deadlines and that labour availability is restored in affected zones." Also read | Operation Sindoor: India repulses drone attacks as conflict continues The temporary uncertainty might still reflect in the export figures for May, especially in labour-intensive sectors. 'The escalation has obviously impacted domestic trade, especially since Punjab, Delhi, and Rajasthan are major markets in the country," said Rahul Mehta, chief mentor of the Clothing Manufacturers Association of India (CMAI). 'The situation is under close watch. Some trade shows scheduled to be held in Ludhiana and Chandigarh have already been cancelled or postponed. One major fabric show in Ahmedabad has also been called off. Overall, the sentiment is not very positive." Mehta added that even if the situation does not escalate further, the prevailing uncertainty will affect market confidence. 'Under such circumstances, business will continue, but very cautiously," he said. The Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) said shipments of capital goods have not yet been affected, but acknowledged the risks if the situation drags on. 'As the tensions did not escalate, supply chains and outbound shipments will not get impacted and should return to their normal course," EEPC chairman Pankaj Chaddha told Mint. Although the government has not issued an official trade advisory, contingency plans are being discussed with states to secure logistics routes and stabilise labour availability, especially in the textile sector and engineering goods, said another government official, the fourth person mentioned earlier. Queries emailed to the ministries of commerce, textiles, and the chief secretaries of Gujarat and Punjab remained unanswered till press time. Economic momentum intact Economists remain optimistic about India's GDP growth trajectory and are betting on 6.5% GDP growth in the current fiscal (FY26)—within the range of 6.3-6.8% growth projected in the 2024-25 Economic Survey. 'We should continue with our investment plans and I think we should be able to maintain our economic growth rate of 6.5%," said EY's chief policy advisor D.K. Srivastava, adding that achieving this will be aided by completing the proposed free trade deal with the US. Srivastava said that India could make somewhat higher allocations for defence. India has a defence budget of ₹4.9 trillion in the current fiscal, up 7.6% from the year ago period. Sachchidanand Shukla, group chief economist at Larsen & Toubro, said this fiscal would be a story of two distinct halves. The first half was marked by uncertainty mainly from the reciprocal tariff announcement by the US and, to a lesser extent, the border tension with Pakistan. Also read | Operation Sindoor: Tensions spark worry over kharif sowing in border states 'The second half is expected to do well and make up for any loss of growth momentum in the first half as India stitches together a trade deal with the US as has been done with the UK," Shukla said. 'Besides, the growth-facilitating monetary policy action by the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) and the expected above-normal monsoon are likely to boost economic expansion in the second half. Overall, we are looking to end FY25-26 with about 6.3-6.8% growth." The RBI has forecast India's economy to expand at 6.5% in the current financial year. In nominal terms, GDP is forecast to grow at 10.1%, according to the Union budget for the year. Experts are betting on the resilience of the domestic economy, improving consumption demand, easing inflation, public investments into infrastructure, and the government's plans for fiscal consolidation. RBI had said in its 9 April monetary policy statement, which came after the reciprocal tariff announcement, that risks are evenly balanced around its baseline projection of 6.5% growth this fiscal, and uncertainties remained high in the wake of recent spike in global volatility. To be sure, the reciprocal tariffs announced on 2 April by the US are suspended for 90 days till early July to facilitate trade negotiations. Key export hubs India's major textile manufacturing hubs include Tiruppur, known for knitwear; Ludhiana for woollen and hosiery products; and Surat for synthetic fabrics. Ahmedabad and Mumbai-Bhiwandi are key centres for cotton and powerloom textiles. Panipat leads in home furnishings, while Karur, Coimbatore, and Erode are known for garments and textile processing. Bhagalpur and Varanasi are famous for silk and traditional weaving. Also read | Operation Sindoor: The IAF has struck terror camps in Pakistan India's key engineering goods manufacturing hubs include Rajkot, known for auto parts and machine tools, and Ludhiana, which specialises in bicycle parts and hand tools. Coimbatore is a major centre for pumps and motors, while Jamshedpur houses large steel and heavy engineering units. Pune and Chennai are strong in automotive and industrial machinery. Howrah has a long-standing base in light engineering and casting. The export of textiles stood at $34.40 billion in FY24 and rose to $36.55 billion in FY25, while engineering goods exports increased to $116.54 billion in FY25, up from $109.22 billion in FY24.

NEET scam probe reveals syndicate's pan-India operation
NEET scam probe reveals syndicate's pan-India operation

Time of India

time09-05-2025

  • Time of India

NEET scam probe reveals syndicate's pan-India operation

Rajkot: The investigation into the NEET has revealed a pan-India racket. The syndicate targeted at least 30 in Maharashtra, Delhi, and Bihar, along with Gujarat, by promising to inflate their marks in exchange for hefty Friday, Rajkot city's Detection of Crime Branch (DCB) said that the gang was charging Rs 15 lakh to Rs 20 lakh per student to manipulate the marks, and the scam thrived for the last two the DCB arrested five people, including 44-year-old Vipul Teraiya, an education consultant, and Rajesh Pethani, owner of the Rajkot-based coaching institute Royal Academy. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now It came to light that they fleeced a Jetpur-based man of Rs 30 lakh by promising to increase the 2024 NEET exam marks of his other accused - Teraiya's brother Prakash, who runs a consultancy in Surat; Manjeet Jain, a CBSE exam coordinator in Belagavi, Karnataka; and Dhaval Sanghvi from Udaipur - are still on the (crime), Dr Parthraj Singh Gohil, said multiple teams were conducting searches across Ahmedabad, Rajasthan, and Belagavi to locate the trio. The scam is being orchestrated from Belagavi, and Vipul and Jain are the masterminds."So far, 30 students have been identified as victims, with the fraud spanning across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar, and Delhi. Besides the NEET aspirant from Jetpur, two more students from Rajkot districts have fallen into their trap" Gohil agency will record statements of the students to gather more evidence and are also ongoing to ascertain if any students benefited from this scheme and received artificially inflated scores. "If such cases are confirmed, the relevant exam authorities will be informed to ensure appropriate actions are taken," he to the police complaint filed on May 5, 2025, by Tushar Vekariya, a 40-year-old resident of Jetpur, Rajkot, his son was among those who were promised better marks for a payment of Rs 30 lakh. However, despite handing over the money, the accused failed to deliver on their promise, leading to the filing of a cheating complaint.

NEET marks scam: Kingpin admits to accepting money from 13-14 medical aspirants
NEET marks scam: Kingpin admits to accepting money from 13-14 medical aspirants

Time of India

time07-05-2025

  • Time of India

NEET marks scam: Kingpin admits to accepting money from 13-14 medical aspirants

Rajkot: The NEET marks-for-money racket busted by Rajkot's Detection of Crime Branch (DCB) thrived for two years, with the prime accused, Vipul Teraiya , an education consultant, confessing to accepting money from parents of 13-14 medical aspirants . Tired of too many ads? go ad free now On Wednesday, the DCB also arrested Rajesh Pethani, chairman of Rajkot-based coaching institute Royal Academy. Pethani, Vipul and three others were booked after it came to light that they fleeced a Jetpur-based man of Rs 30 lakh by promising to increase the 2024 NEET exam marks of his son. Pethani and Vipul were remanded in five days of police custody by a local court. Police have intensified the search for another mastermind Manjeet Jain, a CBSE exam coordinator in Belagavi, Karnataka; Dhaval Sanghvi; and Vipul's brother, Prakash Teraiya, who runs an education consultancy in Surat. The complainant's son enrolled for NEET coaching in Pethani's academy. He was convinced by Pethani, who claimed to know some influential people capable of enhancing the marks. The amount was routed through Dhaval Sanghvi, who promised that his son would be allotted an exam centre in Belagavi. Vekariya's son eventually scored 460 marks, but no manipulation occurred. When he asked for a refund, the accused did not respond to his calls, prompting him to approach the police. DCP (crime) Dr Parthrajsinh Gohil said, "We want to find out how many students, including the victim, were promised higher NEET scores in exchange for money, and how much money was collected from them. The probe will also explore how long the accused operated this nexus and whether more agents are involved," Gohil said. DCB police inspector Mehul Gondaliya said Vipul confessed to accepting money from the parents of 13 to 14 students in exchange for illegally increasing their NEET scores. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now "Teraiya admitted that this malpractice has been ongoing for the past two years, and more people are involved in the nexus. Once the information is verified, statements from the concerned students and their parents will be recorded," Gondaliya said. Police will also investigate the commission structure—how the money received per student was divided among the accused.

Sebi bars Rajkot-based stock broker, 4 directors from market for order spoofing
Sebi bars Rajkot-based stock broker, 4 directors from market for order spoofing

New Indian Express

time28-04-2025

  • Business
  • New Indian Express

Sebi bars Rajkot-based stock broker, 4 directors from market for order spoofing

Capital markets regulator Sebi on Monday debarred Rajkot-based stock broker Patel Wealth Advisors (PWA) and its four directors from dealing in the securities market for alleged order spoofing and directed to impound `3.22 crore of illegal gains made by them. In market parlance, order spoofing is an illegal and deceptive practice wherein one places a trade order with the intent to cancel it before execution and simultaneously executes trades on the opposite side, leading to price manipulation. The regulator in an order noted that PWA continued to indulge in unfair trade practices despite repeated show-cause notices and initial proceedings by the NSE. In an ex-parte interim order, the Sebi directed to impound `3.22 crore illegal gains made by them. Sebi said it will undertake a probe into the matter. PWA claims to be in operations for 25 years and its four directors banned by the regulator are Denish Maheshbhai Patel, Mitul Umedlal Vora, Kaushal Vasantrai Patel and Minish Maheshbhai Patel. 'Order spoofing is a manipulative, fraudulent and unfair trade practice employed by PWA to deceive other market participants and profit from price fluctuations they induced on unwary investors. This practice distorts prices and undermines efficiency of market,' noted Sebi whole-time member Kamlesh Varshney in the 41-page interim order. It found PWA was involved in spoofing activity in both cash and derivatives segments across 173 scrips between January 2021 and January 2025. Their activity resulted in 621 unique spoofing instances. At its peak, PWA's phantom orders constituted 90% of pending order book in certain stocks, an indicator of the extent of market distortion.

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