3 days ago
Can caste, Constitution break Hindutva in 2027 polls?
Until the 2014 general elections, in which religious polarisation became more pronounced in deciding the poll outcome, caste and caste alone was the primary ingredient of electoral politics in Uttar Pradesh (UP).
So much so, that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had also constructed social coalitions alongside their main poll plank of Hindu and Hindutva for the polls. Interestingly, in the 1991 elections, when the BJP had garnered a clear majority in the UP assembly, the party leadership had got its caste calculus right even though the northern states, including UP, were caught in an unprecedented frenzy over the Ram temple campaign.
Caste will likely be back on the centerstage for the 2027 assembly elections as Samajwadi Party (SP) national president Akhilesh Yadav, aggressively rides on his tested PDA (Pichda or backwards, Dalit and Alpsankhyak or minorities) formula.
In the 2024 general elections, he along with Congress scion Rahul Gandhi had succeeded in breaking the BJP's Hindutva plank which, along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's charisma and pro-poor schemes, had won them four state assembly and Lok Sabha elections since 2014.
In fact, many political pundits had taken Akhilesh's consistent reiteration of PDA lightly until it paid him huge dividends in 2024, propelling the party into prime position in the Lok Sabha.
As of now, a confident Akhilesh seems to be setting the agenda for the 2027 polls as the political narrative in the state is dominated by caste-oriented incidents -- humiliation of Yadav kathavachaks (narrator of holy scriptures) in Etawah, clash between Rajbhars and Karni Sena in Varanasi and the vandalisation of Dalit MP Ramji Lal Suman's home in Agra, to mention a few. Such clashes have not only infuriated the lower castes and OBCs, but also revived the wedge between the upper and the lower castes.
It was with great effort that the BJP leadership had succeeded in removing the tag of 'a party of Brahmins, Banias and Rajputs', besides bringing various castes into the Hindutva fold, amplified by chief minister Yogi Adityanath's statements in which he had described the 2022 elections as a battle between 80% vs 20 % (Hindu vs Muslims)
Yogi is retaliating, painting SP as a corrupt party which patronises criminals. Reminding people of the firing on Ram Bhakts in Ayodhya by the Mulayam Singh Yadav government, he recently said: 'Ram Manohar Lohia, a socialist had started the tradition of Ramayan mela while his current chelas ( disciples) open fire on Ram Bhakts.'
However, several senior BJP leaders have started discussing the impact of the SP's PDA as Akhilesh seems to be setting the narrative in the run up to the polls. The elections are still several months away and it is going to be a tough task even for Akhilesh to sustain the tempo, even though he appears to have galvanized the cadre.
The BJP is yet to show its cards.
The party high command is holding discussions to decide the caste combination that would work to their advantage in the elections - something on the lines of their earlier experiment of a backward CM and an upper caste state president or vice versa. Yogi is a Rajput and, thus, there is a vacancy for a backward leader in the party. Speculation about a change of leadership has been going on incessantly but in all probability a CM in saffron, perhaps, suits both the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh leadership till they plan to elevate and move him to the Centre.
Deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya's recent meeting with Union home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi has added fuel to the fire. Maurya posted pictures of the meeting with Shah and posted on X, 'The Chanakya of Indian politics and the source of inspiration and guidance for millions of workers like us, the esteemed Home and Cooperation Minister Amit Shahji, graciously met me, and I had the privilege of receiving detailed guidance through discussions on various important topics, including repeating the 2017 success in Uttar Pradesh in 2027 and forming the BJP government for the third time.'
BJP with its allies had won 325 seats in 2017, while SP- Congress had won 54 seats. In 2022, while BJP+ seats dipped to 255, the SP+ won 125 seats. Akhilesh had recently pointed out the margin of votes polled, which comes to 8507787; the margin further reduced to 147695 votes taking into account the strength of NDA vs INDIA.
Maurya's post is being interpreted in different ways as he did not mention the party's victory in the 2022 assembly polls. The 2017 elections were driven by Union minister Amit Shah and Maurya, who was then the BJP state president. He was quite hopeful of getting the coveted chair of CM as a reward for his hard work. But the crown went to Yogi, the angst of which Maurya is said to be carrying even today.
Though Yogi had campaigned in the state's western region instead of confining himself to Gorakhpur, the credit for the spectacular victory, outperforming the party's clear win of 1991, was largely credited to the meticulous planning of Shah. But in 2022, Yogi became the hero as the BJP's repeat performance was viewed as public vindication of his governance.
The other indication of Maurya's possible change of role is Shah's description of him as his friend from a public platform. But would he go to Delhi or would he get a bigger role in the state? He is most unlikely to return to the party state president's position. As usual, the BJP high command's decisions remain wrapped in secrecy.
Caste and Hindutva
A few party leaders privately said that the politics of Hindutva and Hindu or of Mandir-Masjid would not pave the way for BJP's victory in 2027 as the election is most likely to be fought on caste lines.
However, what could work for the BJP is pro-poor schemes, including ration, besides Shah's planning, the party's active machinery and RSS support.
Soon after the 2024 setback, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat toured the state and deployed cadres to clear misgivings about the BJP vis a vis the Constitution.
The SP has not only given the PDA slogan but has relentlessly worked to convince the non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits about its sincerity through distribution of tickets, positions and by raising their issues.
Akhilesh's decision to set up a party office in Azamgarh is also aimed at consolidating the party's position in the region. Eastern UP, especially the Varanasi-Azamgarh divisions, has been a stronghold of the SP and also the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the past. However, after Modi moved to Varanasi, coupled with the BJP's alliances with small caste-based regional parties like the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), the Apna Dal (Sonelal) and Nishad Party in the area, it outperformed the two UP-based parties.
The three Cs – caste, constitution and caste census -- are likely to play a key role in the 2027 polls, cutting into the BJP's Hindu-Hindutva plank. While Ayodhya and Kashi paid them huge dividends in earlier polls, Mathura may not, as Yadavs consider Krishna as their ancestor.
