Latest news with #RandyOllenberger
Yahoo
18-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
BMO Capital Maintains a Buy on Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) With a C$56 PT
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) is one of the best . On July 14, BMO Capital analyst Randy Ollenberger maintained a Buy rating on Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) and set a price target of C$56.00. A vast oil rig pumping crude oil during a sunset, emphasizing the company's focus on oil & gas exploration and production. The analyst based the rating on the company's financial resilience and operational excellence, stating that its notable efficiency and scale reflect its potential to maintain cost-effectiveness and industry-leading reliability. This holds especially true at the Albian Sands. Ollenberger reasoned that Canadian Natural Resources Limited's (NYSE:CNQ) strategic asset management and considerable reserves further support this operational expertise, lending it a competitive market position. Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ) is an oil and natural gas production company that explores, develops, markets, and produces natural gas and crude oil. Its operations are divided into the following segments: Oil Sands Mining & Upgrading, Midstream & Refining, and Exploration & Production. While we acknowledge the potential of CNQ as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 30 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and 11 Hidden AI Stocks to Buy Right Now. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
09-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's gas market 'about to turn the corner,' say analysts eyeing up to 7 years of excess demand
Canada's battered natural gas market is 'about to turn the corner' into a new era of higher prices, according to BMO Capital Markets veteran commodities analyst Randy Ollenberger. He and his peers see new LNG export projects spurring higher prices for Canadian producers for years to come as demand outstrips supply. The first delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced at the LNG Canada terminal near Kitimat, B.C. left port for a storage and regasification terminal in Incheon, South Korea last week. Prior to this, Canada's only export market has been the United States via pipeline. The Shell PLC-led (SHEL) joint venture provides long-awaited access to higher prices for Canadian gas in Asia. 'Long-suffering Canadian gas companies (and investors) are poised to benefit from several structural changes, including: the start-up of LNG Canada, declining production in several major U.S. basins, and growing demand from AI and data centres,' Ollenberger wrote in a recent note to clients. '[The] Canadian gas market [is] about to turn the corner.' The first phase of LNG Canada will export from two processing units with a total capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). A second phase under consideration would double that. Meanwhile, two additional projects in Canada have reached their final investment decision: Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG. A new analysis by Deloitte Canada published on Monday estimates Canada will not fill the demand created by current LNG export projects for four to seven years. 'This likely will mean the strengthening of the AECO benchmark, enabling Canadian producers to achieve more favourable value for their gas,' Deloitte Canada researchers led by energy, resources and industrials partner Andrew Botterill wrote in the report. 'In this period where production is growing to meet demand, natural gas prices should see a narrowing of the differential relative to Henry Hub that lasts for multiple years once exports ramp up from LNG Canada.' Canada is the world's fifth-largest producer of natural gas, and the fourth-largest global exporter. Producers faced tough times in 2024 as prices fell to their lowest levels in more than 40 years. According to Statistics Canada, higher production and storage, coupled with weaker-than-expected winter demand, caused prices to plummet in the second half of the year. Deloitte Canada sees AECO prices averaging $2.20 per million BTUs in 2025, up from $1.39 in 2024. In 2026, the firm says AECO prices are expected to average $3.45, before plateauing at $3.50 until 2032. 'We're bullish on natural gas,' Bay Street fund manager Eric Nuttall wrote in his firm's recently released 2025 mid-year outlook. The partner and senior portfolio manager at Toronto-based Nine Point Partners says 75 per cent of his firm's oil and gas fund has been allocated to natural gas investments since the end of May. 'We expect natural gas prices to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year, and as Canada increases its LNG capacity, we think the current discount on Canadian natural gas should fall from about $2 today to between $1.10 and $1.30,' Nuttall added. 'This poses a big opportunity for Canadian companies.' LNG has been touted as a 'bridge' or 'transition' fuel to replace coal power in emerging economies. With new export-focused capacity ramping up around the world from the United States to Qatar, observers including the International Energy Agency have raised concerns about a glut of supply hitting the market. While Deloitte Canada estimates four to seven years of excess demand when LNG Canada is fully operational, other analysts have floated shorter timeframes. 'We believe this will significantly impact the current Western Canadian gas balance, and estimate it will take around two years for supply to catch up with demand,' Ollenberger wrote. Last month, TD Cowen analyst Tristan Margot called for the global LNG market to flip to oversupplied conditions after winter 2026. 'Our analysts see the incremental demand for WCSB natural gas from LNG Canada Phase 1 to be largely filled in real time,' he wrote in a June 12 research report. 'This dynamic is likely to result in continued weakness in natural gas prices through year-end,' Margot added. 'This is likely to dampen the optimism that LNG Canada Phase 1 startup is the inflection point to historically weak WCSB gas pricing. However, with producer supply-restraint in 2026+, we see a path to continued basin growth and stronger WCSB natural gas pricing.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's gas market 'about to turn the corner,' say analysts eyeing up to 7 years of excess demand
Canada's battered natural gas market is 'about to turn the corner' into a new era of higher prices, according to BMO Capital Markets veteran commodities analyst Randy Ollenberger. He and his peers see new LNG export projects spurring higher prices for Canadian producers for years to come as demand outstrips supply. The first delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced at the LNG Canada terminal near Kitimat, B.C. left port for a storage and regasification terminal in Incheon, South Korea last week. Prior to this, Canada's only export market has been the United States via pipeline. The Shell PLC-led (SHEL) joint venture provides long-awaited access to higher prices for Canadian gas in Asia. 'Long-suffering Canadian gas companies (and investors) are poised to benefit from several structural changes, including: the start-up of LNG Canada, declining production in several major U.S. basins, and growing demand from AI and data centres,' Ollenberger wrote in a recent note to clients. '[The] Canadian gas market [is] about to turn the corner.' The first phase of LNG Canada will export from two processing units with a total capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). A second phase under consideration would double that. Meanwhile, two additional projects in Canada have reached their final investment decision: Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG. A new analysis by Deloitte Canada published on Monday estimates Canada will not fill the demand created by current LNG export projects for four to seven years. 'This likely will mean the strengthening of the AECO benchmark, enabling Canadian producers to achieve more favourable value for their gas,' Deloitte Canada researchers led by energy, resources and industrials partner Andrew Botterill wrote in the report. 'In this period where production is growing to meet demand, natural gas prices should see a narrowing of the differential relative to Henry Hub that lasts for multiple years once exports ramp up from LNG Canada.' Canada is the world's fifth-largest producer of natural gas, and the fourth-largest global exporter. Producers faced tough times in 2024 as prices fell to their lowest levels in more than 40 years. According to Statistics Canada, higher production and storage, coupled with weaker-than-expected winter demand, caused prices to plummet in the second half of the year. Deloitte Canada sees AECO prices averaging $2.20 per million BTUs in 2025, up from $1.39 in 2024. In 2026, the firm says AECO prices are expected to average $3.45, before plateauing at $3.50 until 2032. 'We're bullish on natural gas,' Bay Street fund manager Eric Nuttall wrote in his firm's recently released 2025 mid-year outlook. The partner and senior portfolio manager at Toronto-based Nine Point Partners says 75 per cent of his firm's oil and gas fund has been allocated to natural gas investments since the end of May. 'We expect natural gas prices to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year, and as Canada increases its LNG capacity, we think the current discount on Canadian natural gas should fall from about $2 today to between $1.10 and $1.30,' Nuttall added. 'This poses a big opportunity for Canadian companies.' LNG has been touted as a 'bridge' or 'transition' fuel to replace coal power in emerging economies. With new export-focused capacity ramping up around the world from the United States to Qatar, observers including the International Energy Agency have raised concerns about a glut of supply hitting the market. While Deloitte Canada estimates four to seven years of excess demand when LNG Canada is fully operational, other analysts have floated shorter timeframes. 'We believe this will significantly impact the current Western Canadian gas balance, and estimate it will take around two years for supply to catch up with demand,' Ollenberger wrote. Last month, TD Cowen analyst Tristan Margot called for the global LNG market to flip to oversupplied conditions after winter 2026. 'Our analysts see the incremental demand for WCSB natural gas from LNG Canada Phase 1 to be largely filled in real time,' he wrote in a June 12 research report. 'This dynamic is likely to result in continued weakness in natural gas prices through year-end,' Margot added. 'This is likely to dampen the optimism that LNG Canada Phase 1 startup is the inflection point to historically weak WCSB gas pricing. However, with producer supply-restraint in 2026+, we see a path to continued basin growth and stronger WCSB natural gas pricing.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.
Yahoo
08-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Canada's gas market 'about to turn the corner,' say analysts eyeing up to 7 years of excess demand
Canada's battered natural gas market is 'about to turn the corner' into a new era of higher prices, according to BMO Capital Markets veteran commodities analyst Randy Ollenberger. He and his peers see new LNG export projects spurring higher prices for Canadian producers for years to come as demand outstrips supply. The first delivery of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced at the LNG Canada terminal near Kitimat, B.C. left port for a storage and regasification terminal in Incheon, South Korea on Monday. Prior to this, Canada's only export market has been the United States via pipeline. The Shell PLC-led (SHEL) joint venture provides long-awaited access to higher prices for Canadian gas in Asia. 'Long-suffering Canadian gas companies (and investors) are poised to benefit from several structural changes, including: the start-up of LNG Canada, declining production in several major U.S. basins, and growing demand from AI and data centres,' Ollenberger wrote in a recent note to clients. '[The] Canadian gas market [is] about to turn the corner.' The first phase of LNG Canada will export from two processing units with a total capacity of 14 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). A second phase under consideration would double that. Meanwhile, two additional projects in Canada have reached their final investment decision: Cedar LNG and Woodfibre LNG. A new analysis by Deloitte Canada published on Monday estimates Canada will not fill the demand created by current LNG export projects for four to seven years. 'This likely will mean the strengthening of the AECO benchmark, enabling Canadian producers to achieve more favourable value for their gas,' Deloitte Canada researchers led by energy, resources and industrials partner Andrew Botterill wrote in the report. 'In this period where production is growing to meet demand, natural gas prices should see a narrowing of the differential relative to Henry Hub that lasts for multiple years once exports ramp up from LNG Canada.' Canada is the world's fifth-largest producer of natural gas, and the fourth-largest global exporter. Producers faced tough times in 2024 as prices fell to their lowest levels in more than 40 years. According to Statistics Canada, higher production and storage, coupled with weaker-than-expected winter demand, caused prices to plummet in the second half of the year. Deloitte Canada sees AECO prices averaging $2.20 per thousand cubic feet in 2025, up from $1.39 in 2024. In 2026, the firm says AECO prices are expected to average $3.45, before plateauing at $3.50 until 2032. 'We're bullish on natural gas,' Bay Street fund manager Eric Nuttall wrote in his firm's recently released 2025 mid-year outlook. The partner and senior portfolio manager at Toronto-based Nine Point Partners says 75 per cent of his firm's oil and gas fund has been allocated to natural gas investments since the end of May. 'We expect natural gas prices to strengthen to between $4 and $5 over the coming year, and as Canada increases its LNG capacity, we think the current discount on Canadian natural gas should fall from about $2 today to between $1.10 and $1.30,' Nuttall added. 'This poses a big opportunity for Canadian companies.' LNG has been touted as a 'bridge' or 'transition' fuel to replace coal power in emerging economies. With new export-focused capacity ramping up around the world from the United States to Qatar, observers including the International Energy Agency have raised concerns about a glut of supply hitting the market. While Deloitte Canada estimates four to seven years of excess demand when LNG Canada is fully operational, other analysts have floated shorter timeframes. 'We believe this will significantly impact the current Western Canadian gas balance, and estimate it will take around two years for supply to catch up with demand,' Ollenberger wrote. Last month, TD Cowen analyst Tristan Margot called for the global LNG market to flip to oversupplied conditions after winter 2026. 'Our analysts see the incremental demand for WCSB natural gas from LNG Canada Phase 1 to be largely filled in real time,' he wrote in a June 12 research report. 'This dynamic is likely to result in continued weakness in natural gas prices through year-end,' Margot added. 'This is likely to dampen the optimism that LNG Canada Phase 1 startup is the inflection point to historically weak WCSB gas pricing. However, with producer supply-restraint in 2026+, we see a path to continued basin growth and stronger WCSB natural gas pricing.' Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.
CBC
09-04-2025
- Business
- CBC
Keystone oil pipeline shut down after rupture in North Dakota
The Keystone oil pipeline was shut down Tuesday morning after it ruptured in North Dakota, halting the flow of millions of gallons of crude oil from Canada to refineries in the U.S. and potentially leading to higher gasoline prices in the U.S. South Bow, a liquid pipeline business, said it shut down the pipeline after control centre leak detection systems detected a pressure drop in the system. The spill is confined to an agricultural field in a rural area, about 100 kilometres southwest of Fargo. "The affected segment has been isolated, and operations and containment resources have been mobilized to site," the company said. "Our primary focus right now is the safety of on-site personnel and mitigating risk to the environment." The pipeline transported an average 624,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. It stretches 4,327 kilometres from Hardisty, Alta., to Texas. The impact on Canadian crude producers will depend on how long the outage lasts, said Randy Ollenberger, head of oil and gas research at BMO Capital Markets. "At this point, it's really having minimal impact on heavy oil pricing," he said. Storage tanks in Hardisty, southeast of Edmonton, have a lot of room to spare, and oil can be diverted there until Keystone is back up and running. Inventories had been drawn down pre-emptively ahead of possible U.S. tariffs, Ollenberger said. "As long as we don't have Keystone down so long that storage tanks start to fill up to capacity, it may not have much impact on the market." Prices at the gas pump could rise in the U.S. The pipeline's shutdown could quickly lead to higher gasoline prices in the Midwest, said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, vice-president for energy and innovation at the University of Houston. It will raise prices at the pump likely within one or two days, but will have a greater impact on diesel and jet fuel, Krishnamoorti said. The Keystone pipeline transports a large amount of a unique, heavy crude that only is available from limited sources, he said. "The refineries run on blends of crude so that they can get the product line that they want to deliver, whether it is gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc., and not having the supply of heavy crude is going to tilt their ability to make diesel and jet fuel," he said. "They will make less of diesel and jet fuel when they have less of the heavy crude." Higher diesel costs could lead to grocery price increases because diesel trucks transport those products, he said. The lead petroleum analyst at gasoline price tracker GasBuddy, Patrick De Haan, said that typically refineries have at least a few days' supply of crude oil on hand that will help insulate them from immediate impacts from the shutdown. But if the pipeline is shut for more than a few days or a week it could become problematic. He said some refineries in the Great Lakes region are also served by other pipelines run by Enbridge. The pipeline was shut down within two minutes of a 'bang' It wasn't clear what caused the rupture of the underground pipeline or the amount of crude oil released into the field. An employee working at the site near Fort Ransom heard a "mechanical bang" and shut down the pipeline within about two minutes, said Bill Suess, spill investigation program manager with the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. Oil surfaced about 270 metres south of a pump station in a field and emergency personnel responded, Suess said. No people or structures were affected by the spill, he said. A nearby stream that only flows during part of the year was not affected but was blocked off and isolated as a precaution, he said. The Pipelines and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is sending a team to investigate the cause of the leak. Fort Ransom, a community of fewer than 100 people, is in a hilly, forested area of southeastern North Dakota known for scenic views and outdoor recreation. A state park and hiking trails are nearby. It's unclear at what rate the 80-centimetre pipeline was flowing, but even at two minutes "it's going to have a fairly good volume," Suess said. "But ... we've had much, much bigger spills," including one involving the same pipeline a few years ago in Walsh County, N.D., he said. "I don't think it's going to be that huge," Suess said. The pipeline has a history of past ruptures The Keystone Pipeline was constructed in 2010 at a cost of $5.2 billion and carries crude oil across Saskatchewan and Manitoba through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri to refineries in Illinois, Oklahoma and Texas. Though the pipeline was constructed by TC Energy, it is now managed by South Bow as of 2024. A proposed extension to the pipeline called Keystone XL would have transported crude oil to refineries on the Gulf Coast, but it was ultimately abandoned by the company in 2021 after years of protests from environmental activists and Indigenous communities over environmental concerns. After a spill, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is responsible for investigating the root cause of the issue and any lack of compliance. The agency, which regulates liquid and natural gas pipelines, lost several senior-level executives earlier this year as part of President Donald Trump's federal cuts. PHMSA did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Bill Caram, executive director at industry watchdog Pipeline Safety Trust, said the organization already was "an under-resourced, underfunded agency." "To lose anyone will have an impact on safety," he said. After the last major Keystone pipeline spill in Kansas in December 2022, sections of the pipeline were offline for a little over three weeks before it resumed operating at a lower pressure. That spill of nearly 13,000 barrels of oil flowed into a creek traversing a pasture. An engineering consulting firm said the bend in the pipeline at the site had been "overstressed" since being installed in 2010, likely because of construction activity altering the land around the pipe. TC Energy said a faulty weld in the line's bend caused a crack that exacerbated over time. The Pipeline Safety Trust said this latest leak adds to the troubled history of the Keystone pipeline, which has had 13 significant incidents in the 15 years it has been operating.
