Latest news with #RanenBanerjee
Hans India
31-07-2025
- Business
- Hans India
Urban demand, tax cuts to drive India's 6.5 pc growth in FY26
India's economic growth is expected to hover around 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year 2025-26, driven by a more accommodative interest rate environment, recent income tax cuts, and a likely uptick in urban demand, according to experts. PwC partners Ranen Banerjee and Manoranjan Pattanayak noted that with retail inflation likely to stay below the Reserve Bank of India's projection of 3.7 per cent for FY26, there is room for the central bank to reduce the policy rate by an additional 25 to 50 basis points. Experts at PwC believe the combination of monetary easing and tax relief will have a delayed but positive impact on the economy, particularly in terms of corporate performance. Banerjee indicated that second-quarter corporate earnings for FY26 are likely to outperform those in the first quarter due to these supportive factors. The PwC experts also emphasised the importance of sustained public capital expenditure. Banerjee stressed that the government would need to maintain its infrastructure investment momentum for the next decade to ensure consistently high economic growth. On the rural front, Pattanayak pointed to a steady rise in rural wages, which is expected to boost rural consumption and support overall economic activity. He also noted that an above-normal monsoon would likely benefit the agricultural sector, further bolstering rural demand. However, the outlook for exports remains cautious. PwC observed that nominal export growth, as captured in national accounts data, remained below 10 per cent in three out of four quarters in FY25. Continued global trade uncertainty poses a potential challenge to India's export performance, they warned. The domestic economy is starting the second quarter of FY26 on a comparatively solid footing, according to the Finance Ministry's 'Monthly Economic Review for June 2025,' which also shows that the first quarter of FY26 shows robust domestic supply and demand fundamentals, with inflation staying within the target range and monsoon progress occurring as planned. According to the report, the economy is "steady as she goes" in terms of the current fiscal year (FY26).
India Gazette
31-05-2025
- Business
- India Gazette
Robust GDP growth in FY25 because of good domestic consumption & government investment: Economists
New Delhi [India], May 31 (ANI): The robust GDP numbers of the Indian economy in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2025 are because of good domestic consumption, government investment, and relatively lower dependence on exports, say experts reacting to the numbers. Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist at Infomeric Valuations and Ratings said 'India's economy rose by 6.5 per cent in FY 25, in line with the estimates making it once again the world's fastest-growing major economy. This strengthens the thought that India is once again one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. Growth outlook has remained robust because of the domestic consumption, govt investment and relatively lower dependence on exports.' India's economy grew by 7.4 per cent in the January-March quarter (Q4) of FY25, beating expectations and marking the strongest quarterly growth of the fiscal year. This was a sharp rise from the 6.2per cent recorded in the previous quarter. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had forecast 7.2 per cent growth for Q4 and 6.6 per cent for the full FY25 in its last monetary policy meeting. For FY26, the central bank has projected 6.5 per cent growth, citing expected improvement in private consumption and steady investment activity. Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader, Economic Advisory at PwC India, noted that the 6.5% growth for FY25 is a strong outcome despite global headwinds. He said 'The manufacturing growth has printed weak and it is a matter of concern, especially given the trade-related disruptions and global economic slowdown expected in FY26'. Banerjee also pointed out that Gross Fixed Capital Formation rose by 8.8 per cent, possibly due to increased private capex, as government capital expenditure did not rise significantly over the previous year. Anshuman Magazine, Chairman & CEO of CBRE India, Southeast Asia, Middle East & Africa, said the growth beat expectations and showed resilience. He credited the rise to strong domestic demand, a recovery in rural markets, and activity in the industrial sector. He said 'The growth highlights strong domestic demand, rural market recovery, and an active industrial sector. The economy's adaptability is evident in the broad industry growth'. He also noted that growth in the construction and financial sectors has helped the real estate market by boosting investments and homebuyer confidence. Madhavi Arora, Chief Economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said the Q4 growth partly reflects back-loaded government spending, mainly through public capital expenditure. She noted that capital formation remained steady, but FY26 could face challenges due to global uncertainties affecting investment sentiment and softer urban income weighing on private consumption. Overall, experts agree that India's economic growth in FY25 has been resilient, driven by domestic factors, though risks remain for the upcoming year due to global and domestic challenges. (ANI)
