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How Trump will hit Tesla's bottom line
How Trump will hit Tesla's bottom line

Politico

time10 hours ago

  • Automotive
  • Politico

How Trump will hit Tesla's bottom line

Donald Trump is vaporizing an easy source of profit for his onetime 'first buddy' and campaign donor Elon Musk. We're talking about America's opaque but lucrative system of emissions credits — a windfall for Tesla that Trump has been busy dismantling. The president erased the biggest market for the credits in June when he signed a bill to revoke California's vehicle emissions standard. Republicans then doubled down in the megalaw by removing any fines against automakers that don't meet fuel economy standards. The consequences may start weighing on Tesla as soon as Wednesday when the company reports its latest financial update. 'I think Tesla is going to take it on the tailpipe,' said Dan Becker, a transportation advocate at the nonprofit Center for Biological Diversity. 'Elon Musk has made an unforced error that is going to cost Tesla a lot of money.' Environmentalists aren't the only ones coming to this conclusion. For years, financial analysts have known that these emission-trading systems, which were designed to improve air quality while giving automakers flexibility, are a windfall for Tesla. Because it produces only electric cars, Tesla can sell its zero-emissions credits to other automakers who fall short of pollution standards. In many past quarters, Tesla would have shown a loss without the money from those credits. Instead it reported profits, forming the basis for the company's sky-high market value. For example, in the second quarter of last year, Tesla's $890 million of regulatory credits made up 63 percent of its profit. The impact this year is even higher. In the first three months of this year, with credits removed, Tesla's $409 million in profits would have turned into a $186 million loss. And now, 'going forward, that source of extra earnings is going to be slim to none,' Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at investment bank Raymond James, said in an interview. California's clean car credits are critical The biggest hit to Tesla, watchers say, will be the end of California's market for clean-car credits (though the state is appealing Congress' repeal of its clean-car program). No one knows how much money Tesla makes from California's market — or any other market — for emissions credits, since the prices aren't transparent like a stock market's. But Tesla's competitors probably would have paid the electric automaker a lot. The penalty for failing to meet California's rules was $20,000 per individual car, and the per-car requirements were poised to ratchet up dramatically starting with models going on sale later this summer. Less impactful, but still important, is the megalaw provision that removed any fines against automakers that don't meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. Those rules have been a key driver of improving fuel economy in America's cars since the 1970s. 'Basically, it's an invitation to cheat,' said Becker. For automakers, an appealing way to cheat — er, not comply — would be to stop paying millions of dollars to Tesla for its fuel-economy credits. With Trump's new rules, an automaker's 'willingness to pay would soften substantially,' said James Sallee, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley. It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, David Ferris. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to dferris@ Today in POLITICO Energy's podcast: Zack Colman breaks down how Republicans are favoring fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Power Centers Trump's anti-renewables pushThe Trump administration's battle against renewables is ramping up, Benjamin Storrow writes. On the heels of the megalaw, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced that no renewable energy projects on public lands could move ahead without approval from him or one of his deputies. Developers are concerned that it will lead to more rejected projects. 'The Trump administration is extremely anti-renewables,' Michael Wara, a senior research scholar at Stanford University, told Ben. 'I think this is fundamentally distorting the market and the broader transition that's already occurring in the U.S. and occurring everywhere on the planet.' Burgum is also taking the anti-renewable message to Congress. On Tuesday, the Interior secretary spoke at the GOP weekly meeting, just weeks after Republicans passed a megalaw with provisions to fast-track fossil fuel projects and phase out clean energy tax credits. Members said Burgum spoke about further unwinding the Biden administration's policies to boost renewables, Andres Picon writes. Picking winners with gustoRepublicans are embracing big government intervention to help fossil fuels and nuclear power, after spending four years slamming the use of the same federal arsenal to help clean energy, Zack Colman writes. 'They're picking winners and losers, no doubt of that,' said Shuting Pomerleau, director of energy and environmental policy at center-right think tank American Action Forum. 'There has been a convergence of both Democrats and Republicans into the industrial policies propping up the industries or technologies they love with the resources and the legal authorities they have.' The aims, however, are worlds apart. The Trump administration is offering billions of dollars to fossil fuel producers while rolling back environmental rules. The Biden administration set out to steer hundreds of billions of dollars to clean energy manufacturing in an effort to counter climate change. Upcoming barriers to wind and solarWind, solar and grid batteries could face more roadblocks once the Treasury Department releases guidelines next month for projects to receive federal tax credits, Christa Marshall writes. The guidance is the result of an executive order after the megalaw's passage that called for 'ending the massive cost of taxpayer handouts to unreliable energy sources.' In Other News Tariff troubles: General Motors' profits in the second quarter fell by more than a third, but its sales of electric vehicles more than doubled. Curbing crude: China's consumption of oil is expected to hit a peak in 2027 and then fall, as the nation moves away from imported fossil fuel and toward electric vehicles. Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Maryland regulators said they won't change the approvals for an offshore wind project that the Environmental Protection Agency said contained an error. House Republicans included language in a spending bill that would prohibit Washington from spending any money from its climate lawsuit against the fossil fuel industry. California Rep. Scott Peters was named Democratic co-chair of the House Bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.

Revolve (RVLV) Stock Is Up, What You Need To Know
Revolve (RVLV) Stock Is Up, What You Need To Know

Yahoo

time14 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Revolve (RVLV) Stock Is Up, What You Need To Know

What Happened? Shares of online fashion retailer Revolve (NASDAQ:RVLV) jumped 3.3% in the morning session after Raymond James raised its price target on the stock and maintained an Outperform rating, citing a more favorable tariff environment. The investment firm boosted its price target on the online fashion retailer to $25 from $21, noting that potential gross margin pressure from tariffs is now expected to be "modestly less" than previously anticipated. Analysts at the firm now assume China tariffs will be 30%, a significant reduction from prior estimates that were as high as 145%. This change reduces the estimated annualized headwind from tariffs from over 700 basis points to around 400 basis points. The upgrade was made despite the firm noting slower growth and an increase in promotions during the quarter. However, Raymond James still projected Revolve would achieve a 5% year-over-year revenue increase for the second quarter, in line with consensus estimates. The positive analyst action and improved tariff outlook appeared to outweigh broader market caution, lifting shares in a sector that has been closely watching trade policy developments. After the initial pop the shares cooled down to $21.94, up 3.5% from previous close. Is now the time to buy Revolve? Access our full analysis report here, it's free. What Is The Market Telling Us Revolve's shares are very volatile and have had 24 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today's move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 12 months ago when the stock gained 28.3% on the news that the company reported strong second quarter earnings. Revolve narrowly beat analysts' revenue expectations this quarter. Its buyers also outperformed Wall Street's estimates. On the other hand, its revenue growth regrettably slowed. Overall, this was a solid quarter for Revolve. Revolve is down 34.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $21.94 per share, it is trading 43.5% below its 52-week high of $38.80 from November 2024. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Revolve's shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,371. Here at StockStory, we certainly understand the potential of thematic investing. Diverse winners from Microsoft (MSFT) to Alphabet (GOOG), Coca-Cola (KO) to Monster Beverage (MNST) could all have been identified as promising growth stories with a megatrend driving the growth. So, in that spirit, we've identified a relatively under-the-radar profitable growth stock benefiting from the rise of AI, available to you FREE via this link. Errore nel recupero dei dati Effettua l'accesso per consultare il tuo portafoglio Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati Errore nel recupero dei dati

Raymond James Cuts Truist Financial (TFC) PT, Keeps Outperform Rating
Raymond James Cuts Truist Financial (TFC) PT, Keeps Outperform Rating

Yahoo

time18 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Raymond James Cuts Truist Financial (TFC) PT, Keeps Outperform Rating

Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) is one of the 10 Best Financial Stocks on Wall Street's Radar. On July 18, Raymond James reduced its price target for Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) from $50 to $48 while keeping an 'Outperform' rating. The investment firm noted that Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) shares are underperforming. Raymond James believes this reflects market concerns around near-term net interest margin/net interest income and the expected increase in investment banking fees in the second half of the year. A closeup view of a hand inserting a credit card into an ATM machine. The firm now projects adjusted revenue growth for Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) to be at the low end of the company's own target range of 1.5% to 2.5%. This view reflects the uncertain business and economic environment. However, Raymond James noted that if there is progress on deregulation and loan growth improves, Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) could see stronger results. The investment firm still believes there is a 'modestly positive risk-reward skew' for Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC). Raymond James pointed to the company's progress toward mid-teens return on tangible common equity, a slight improvement in the short-term outlook for credit, and expected positive operating leverage. All of this comes as Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) trades at a discount compared to its peers. Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) is an American bank holding and financial services company. It specializes in consumer and small business banking, commercial banking, corporate and investment banking, wealth management, payments, and specialized lending businesses. While we acknowledge the potential of TFC as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 10 Best American Semiconductor Stocks to Buy Now and 11 Best Fintech Stocks to Buy Right Now. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Raymond James Lifts Price Target for FNB, Keeps Outperform Rating
Raymond James Lifts Price Target for FNB, Keeps Outperform Rating

Yahoo

time18 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Raymond James Lifts Price Target for FNB, Keeps Outperform Rating

F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE:FNB) is one of the 10 Best Financial Stocks on Wall Street's Radar. On July 18, Raymond James increased its price target on F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE:FNB) from $15 to $18 while keeping an 'Outperform' rating. This decision came after the company reported its second-quarter results. F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE:FNB) showed strong core performance, including lower costs for funding and asset repricing that helped improve both its net interest margin and net interest income. A customer walking into a bank branch, expressing the convenience of consumer banking services. Raymond James pointed out that F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE:FNB) showed improvements in its capital levels and asset quality during the second quarter. Additionally, fee revenues exceeded expectations. F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE:FNB) increased its guidance for net interest income in 2025. However, Raymond James' analysis suggests that this outlook might still be conservative if commercial loan growth pipelines accelerate as expected. The firm sees the risk-reward profile for F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE:FNB) as attractive at current levels. F.N.B. Corporation (NYSE:FNB) is a diversified financial services company that offers a full range of commercial banking, consumer banking, and wealth management solutions. The company operates through its subsidiary network, which is led by its largest subsidiary, First National Bank of Pennsylvania. While we acknowledge the potential of FNB as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 10 Best American Semiconductor Stocks to Buy Now and 11 Best Fintech Stocks to Buy Right Now. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Canfor downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Canfor downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James

Yahoo

time19 hours ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Canfor downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James

Raymond James downgraded Canfor (CFPZF) to Outperform from Strong Buy with a price target of C$19, down from C$22. The firm believes a possibly large tariff on lumber remains the most probable scenario. In addition, the North American lumber market fasces cyclical and seasonal supply/demand headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm downgraded three names as part of Q2 earnings preview. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>> See the top stocks recommended by analysts >> Read More on CFPZF: Disclaimer & DisclosureReport an Issue Canfor to Close Estill and Darlington Sawmills Amid Market Challenges Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

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