Latest news with #Redman
CNBC
3 days ago
- Business
- CNBC
A big comeback month ends. Investors might be mistaken thinking all is well
Stocks roared back to life in May, but trouble still looms for Wall Street. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 6.2% and 3.8%, respectively, in May. Both benchmarks are on pace to snap three-month declines. The Nasdaq Composite advanced nearly 10% this month, on track for its best month since November 2023. The U.S. pausing tariffs on China boosted stocks, easing concerns that protectionist trade policies could tip the economy into a recession. Technology investors in particular, which face a high tariff risk, breathed a collective sigh of relief. The sector is up 11.3% in May, led by gains in Nvidia and Super Micro Computer . .SPX mountain 2025-05-01 SPX in May But CLSA strategist Alexander Redman warns the market could soon be in for a rude awakening. "We fear the current market complacency may prove temporary, replaced by a realization that household and corporate spending plans and thus U.S. growth may disappoint," Redman wrote in a note Thursday. Trade worries flared up once again this week. A U.S. federal trade court struck down Trump's reciprocal levies Wednesday night, then an appeals court reinstated them a day later. Trump also said Friday in a Truth Social post that China " violated " its current trade agreement with the U.S., while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted talks between the two countries were "a bit stalled." "We ascribe a striking degree of complacency to the current S & P 500 price action which is seemingly discounting a rapid normalization across multiple sentiment indicators damaged as a consequence of Trump's policy unorthodoxy," Redman at CLSA added. "This extends beyond trade to unfunded tax cuts, some disruption to labor owing to the threat of deportation, and arbitrary cuts to government agencies, among other concerns."
Straits Times
23-05-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
US stock investors ‘astronomically complacent' about trade war, Singapore-based analyst says
TOKTO – US stock investors appear 'astronomically complacent' about the amount of damage the trade war will inflict on corporate earnings, according to CLSA's chief equity strategist. For Alexander Redman, economic data show significant cause for concern about US stock prices. US firms' capital-expenditure intentions have gone negative for only the fourth time this century; the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is at a multi-decade low; and two-thirds of US households now believe that unemployment will be worse in 12 months' time. 'Real damage was done to corporate and household sentiment during the period that the tariffs were being applied,' Mr Redman said in an interview, adding that it's unlikely they will 'return to where we were back in December.' Even with the trade war hanging over markets, the S&P 500 sits less than 5 per cent off its record high from February, and close to the median year-end forecast of strategists tracked by Bloomberg. What's more, the market currently sees 10 per cent earnings-per-share growth this year and 14 per cent next year, versus the compound annual growth rate of about 6.7 per cent in the past four to five decades, according to Mr Redman, who says expectations are too high. 'The sell-side are not going to tell you this because they were uniformly discredited in 2022 and 2023 for calling a US recession that never arrived,' he said. 'They don't want to stand in front of that train again.' Mr Redman is based in Singapore. Because of concerns about the US economic outlook, the brokerage is underweight export-driven Asian economies such as South Korea and Taiwan, and prefers markets that are more insulated from US risks, such as India and Australia. Mr Redman remains neutral on Japan, seeing the shares as near fair value, and on China, where the outlook is constrained by tepid consumption. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Mint
22-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
US stock market investors ‘astronomically complacent' about trade war, warns CLSA
US stock investors appear 'astronomically complacent' about the amount of damage the trade war will inflict on corporate earnings, according to CLSA's chief equity strategist. For Alexander Redman, economic data show significant cause for concern about stock prices. US firms' capital-expenditure intentions have gone negative for only the fourth time this century; the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is at a multi-decade low; and two-thirds of US households now believe the unemployment will be worse in 12 months' time. 'Real damage was done to corporate and household sentiment during the period that the tariffs were being applied,' Redman said in an interview, adding that it's unlikely they will 'return to where we were back in December.' Even with the trade war hanging over markets, the S&P 500 sits less than 5% off its record high from February, and close to the median year-end forecast of strategists tracked by Bloomberg. What's more, the market currently sees 10% earnings-per-share growth this year and 14% next year, versus the compound annual growth rate of about 6.7% in the past four to five decades, according to Redman, who says expectations are too high. 'The sell-side are not going to tell you this because they were uniformly discredited in 2022 and 2023 for calling a US recession that never arrived,' he said. 'They don't want to stand in front of that train again.' Redman is based in Singapore. Because of concerns about the US economic outlook, the brokerage is underweight export-driven Asian economies such as South Korea and Taiwan, and prefers markets that are more insulated from US risks, such as India and Australia. Redman remains neutral on Japan, seeing the shares as near fair value, and on China, where the outlook is constrained by tepid consumption.
Yahoo
22-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Stocks ‘Astronomically Complacent' About Trade War, CLSA Says
(Bloomberg) -- US stock investors appear 'astronomically complacent' about the amount of damage the trade war will inflict on corporate earnings, according to CLSA's chief equity strategist. Can Frank Gehry's 'Grand LA' Make Downtown Feel Like a Neighborhood? Chicago's O'Hare Airport Seeks Up to $4.3 Billion of Muni Debt NJ Transit Makes Deal With Engineers, Ending Three-Day Strike For Alexander Redman, economic data show significant cause for concern about stock prices. US firms' capital-expenditure intentions have gone negative for only the fourth time this century; the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is at a multi-decade low; and two-thirds of US households now believe the unemployment will be worse in 12 months' time. 'Real damage was done to corporate and household sentiment during the period that the tariffs were being applied,' Redman said in an interview, adding that it's unlikely they will 'return to where we were back in December.' Even with the trade war hanging over markets, the S&P 500 sits less than 5% off its record high from February, and close to the median year-end forecast of strategists tracked by Bloomberg. What's more, the market currently sees 10% earnings-per-share growth this year and 14% next year, versus the compound annual growth rate of about 6.7% in the past four to five decades, according to Redman, who says expectations are too high. 'The sell-side are not going to tell you this because they were uniformly discredited in 2022 and 2023 for calling a US recession that never arrived,' he said. 'They don't want to stand in front of that train again.' Redman is based in Singapore. Because of concerns about the US economic outlook, the brokerage is underweight export-driven Asian economies such as South Korea and Taiwan, and prefers markets that are more insulated from US risks, such as India and Australia. Redman remains neutral on Japan, seeing the shares as near fair value, and on China, where the outlook is constrained by tepid consumption. Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI Inside the First Stargate AI Data Center Anthropic Is Trying to Win the AI Race Without Losing Its Soul Microsoft's CEO on How AI Will Remake Every Company, Including His Cartoon Network's Last Gasp ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Sign in to access your portfolio
IOL News
22-05-2025
- Entertainment
- IOL News
Teens are sexting with AI: What every parent needs to know now
Parents have another online activity to worry about. In a new tech-driven twist on 'sexting,' teenagers are having romantic and sexual conversations with artificial intelligent chatbots. The chats can range from romance- and innuendo-filled to sexually graphic and violent, according to interviews with parents, conversations posted on social media, and experts. They are largely taking place on 'AI companion' tools, but general-purpose AI apps like ChatGPT can also create sexual content with a few clever prompts. When Damian Redman of Saratoga Springs, New York, did a routine check of his eighth-grader's phone, he found an app called PolyBuzz. He reviewed the chats his son was having with AI female anime characters and found they were flirty and that attempts at more sexual conversations were blocked. 'I don't want to put yesterday's rules on today's kids. I want to wait and figure out what's going on,' said Redman, who decided to keep monitoring the app. We tested 10 chatbots ourselves to identify the most popular AI characters, the types of conversations they have, what filters are in place and how easy they are to circumvent. Know your bots AI chatbots are open-ended chat interfaces that generate answers to complex questions, or banter in a conversational way about any topic. There is no shortage of places minors can find these tools, and that makes blocking them difficult. AI bots are websites, stand-alone apps and features built into existing services like Instagram or video games. There are different kinds of chatbots. The mainstream options are OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude, Google's Gemini, and Meta AI, which recently launched as a stand-alone app. These have stronger filters, and their main products aren't designed for role-play. Companion AI tools are far more popular for suggestive chats, including Replika, Talkie, Talk AI, SpicyChat and PolyBuzz. ChatGPT and Meta AI have also launched companion-chat options. The smaller apps tend to have fewer limits or filters. Look for anything that has 'AI girlfriend,' 'AI boyfriend,' or 'AI companion' in the name or description. More are being added to app stores daily. What are they talking about? It's not just sex, according to parents and experts. Teens are having a range of conversations with character bots, including friendly, therapeutic, funny and romantic ones. 'We're seeing teens experiment with different types of relationships - being someone's wife, being someone's father, being someone's kid. There's game and anime-related content that people are working through. There's advice,' said Robbie Torney, senior director of AI programs at family advocacy group Common Sense Media. 'The sex is part of it but it's not the only part of it.' Some confide in AI chats, seeing them as a nonjudgmental space during a difficult developmental time. Others use them to explore their gender or sexuality. Aren't there filters? The default settings on most AI companion tools allow, and sometimes encourage, risqué role play situations, based on our tests. Some stop before actual descriptions of sex appear, while others describe it but avoid certain words, like the names of body parts. There are work-arounds and paid options that can lead to more graphic exchanges. Prompts to get past filters - sometimes called jailbreaks - are shared in group chats, on Reddit and on GitHub.A common technique is pretending you need help writing a book. What are the risks? Potential harms from AI bots extend beyond sexual content, experts said. Researchers have been warning AI chatbots could become addictive or worsen mental health issues. There have been multiple lawsuits and investigations after teens died by suicide following conversations with chatbots. Similar to too much pornography, bots can exasperate loneliness, depression or withdrawal from real-world relationships, said Megan Maas, an associate professor of human development and family at Michigan State University. They can also give a misleading picture of what it's like to date. 'They can create unrealistic expectations of what interpersonal romantic communication is, and how available somebody is to you,' Maas said. 'How are we going to learn about sexual and romantic need-exchange in a relationship with something that has no needs?' What can parents do? Set up your child's devices with their correct age and add limits on app ratings to prevent them from being downloaded. Using their proper age on individual chatbot or social media accounts should trigger any built-in parental controls. Experts suggest creating an open and honest relationship with your child. Have age-appropriate conversations about sex, and don't shy away from embarrassing topics. If you need to practice first, try asking a chatbot.
