A big comeback month ends. Investors might be mistaken thinking all is well
Stocks roared back to life in May, but trouble still looms for Wall Street. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are up 6.2% and 3.8%, respectively, in May. Both benchmarks are on pace to snap three-month declines. The Nasdaq Composite advanced nearly 10% this month, on track for its best month since November 2023. The U.S. pausing tariffs on China boosted stocks, easing concerns that protectionist trade policies could tip the economy into a recession. Technology investors in particular, which face a high tariff risk, breathed a collective sigh of relief. The sector is up 11.3% in May, led by gains in Nvidia and Super Micro Computer . .SPX mountain 2025-05-01 SPX in May But CLSA strategist Alexander Redman warns the market could soon be in for a rude awakening. "We fear the current market complacency may prove temporary, replaced by a realization that household and corporate spending plans and thus U.S. growth may disappoint," Redman wrote in a note Thursday. Trade worries flared up once again this week. A U.S. federal trade court struck down Trump's reciprocal levies Wednesday night, then an appeals court reinstated them a day later. Trump also said Friday in a Truth Social post that China " violated " its current trade agreement with the U.S., while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted talks between the two countries were "a bit stalled." "We ascribe a striking degree of complacency to the current S & P 500 price action which is seemingly discounting a rapid normalization across multiple sentiment indicators damaged as a consequence of Trump's policy unorthodoxy," Redman at CLSA added. "This extends beyond trade to unfunded tax cuts, some disruption to labor owing to the threat of deportation, and arbitrary cuts to government agencies, among other concerns."
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Gold's Rally Broke Down in May. It's Still Doing Better Than Stocks.
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The Hill
an hour ago
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Puerto Rico is Trump's perfect partner in reshoring
President Trump recently signed an executive order to bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to the U.S. by streamlining the process for the Food and Drug Administration to approve pharmaceutical manufacturing plants. This is the latest in the Trump administration's agenda to protect national security and create American jobs by promoting the reshoring of critical supply chains that Americans rely on every day. These efforts are coupled with international tariffs to encourage domestic manufacturing. Reshoring pharmaceutical manufacturing is not only dire for American national security, but it could have resounding economic impacts across the country. One U.S. jurisdiction that is ready and in a perfect position to partner in this effort is Puerto Rico, where pharmaceutical manufacturing is already a more than $50 billion industry. With complementary efforts underway in Congress and on the island, the White House should look to Puerto Rico as America's pharmaceutical powerhouse while not trapping the island in its current territory status by hindering a future transition to statehood that would further boost the island's manufacturing ability. As a territory, the island is part of the U.S. customs zone and is not subject to U.S. tariffs, and everything that is made in Puerto Rico is 'Made in the USA.' Yet, that same territory status has limited Puerto Rico's economic development by creating persistent uncertainty, underinvestment and an unequal playing field for economic competition. The territory status is unpopular on the island, and Puerto Rican voters have voted in favor of statehood four consecutive times, most recently last November. Trump and Congress have the opportunity of a generation to leverage the pharmaceutical infrastructure and workforce in Puerto Rico to achieve their agenda while also turbocharging the economy on the island, and they have the perfect ally in Puerto Rico to do it with — the island's Republican Gov. Jenniffer González-Colón. González-Colón is leading an ambitious agenda to reshape the national narrative about the island and its people — and ultimately achieve statehood for Puerto Rico. Aligning with the Trump administration's vision to reshore advanced manufacturing of critical products, she issued an executive order in late March and reached out to top White House officials to offer Puerto Rico's well-established, yet currently underutilized, manufacturing capacity as an economic engine to help grow American prosperity. González-Colón's executive order promotes the relocation of overseas manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and other products to Puerto Rico. Much like Trump's executive order, it eliminates barriers and streamlines the process for businesses to move to the island. This action is complementary to the Medical Manufacturing, Economic Development and Sustainability Act, which was recently reintroduced and incentivizes pharmaceutical manufacturing on the island and throughout economically distressed zones across the United States. The bill is designed to attract business to the island in a way that invests in the people of Puerto Rico. It does this by providing an incentive for medical manufacturing facilities to relocate to economically distressed zones, with an incentive dependent on the number of jobs created to ensure money is flowing back into communities. The incentive itself is based on economic factors and applies to communities throughout the United States — an appropriately wide scope that comports with Trump's strong desire to reshore large amounts of production in a short time frame. By tethering the tax credits to what manufacturers invest directly into wages, salaries and real middle-class benefits, the proposal creates good-paying, quality American jobs. Reshoring to Puerto Rico would mean that critical pharmaceuticals and medical devices, as well as other products that are currently manufactured overseas in China and other nations, would now be produced in America. This would create thousands of well-paying manufacturing jobs that Puerto Rico needs to turbocharge the modest economic progress it's made in recent years. The increased consumer demand on the island would help boost the approximately $70 billion in annual interstate commerce, resulting in more jobs and profits stateside. Puerto Rico is a natural partner in reshoring the medical and pharmaceutical manufacturing industry within U.S. borders. The island's leaders share in the White House's vision of a more prosperous pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and are working to ensure reshoring efforts do not trap Puerto Rico in its current territory status but instead enable it to reach its full potential as an engine of economic growth and prosperity as a future state of our Union. Manufacturing makes America stronger, especially when it lifts up communities and the hard-working American citizens that make 'Made in the USA' a possibility, including those in Puerto Rico.
CNBC
an hour ago
- CNBC
Trump pardons drive a big, burgeoning business for lobbyists
Seeking a pardon from President Donald Trump has become big business for lobbying and consulting firms close to the administration, with wealthy hopefuls willing to spend millions of dollars for help getting their case in front of the right people. "From a lobbying perspective, pardons have gotten profitable," said one lobbyist whose firm has received such calls. There's no set rate for pardon help. But two people directly familiar with proposals to lobbying firms said they knew of a client's offer of $5 million to help get a case to Trump. These people, like others, were granted anonymity to speak candidly. And while such high numbers do not seem to be standard, they speak to a burgeoning pardon economy. A $5 million figure is higher than numbers The New York Times reported Trump allies receiving for pardon help in his first term. In 2021, the outlet reported that Brett Tolman, a former federal prosecutor who advised the White House on pardons, was receiving five-figure amounts for the work, according to filings and a client. The Times also reported that John Kiriakou, a former CIA officer convicted of disclosing classified information, was told that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Trump ally, could help secure him a pardon for $2 million; Giuliani disputed that account. Cozying up to a president's allies or hiring lobbyists to gain access to clemency isn't new. But along with the price spike, what's different now is that Trump is issuing pardons on a rolling basis — rather than most coming at the end of the administration. "It's like the Wild West," a Trump ally and lobbyist said. "You can basically charge whatever you want." The increased use of the pardon power has some familiar with the process concerned about the appearance of financial and political favoritism that can erode confidence in the clemency process. "This is very destructive to our justice system. It delegitimizes the pardon power," said Elizabeth Oyer, who served as pardon attorney for the Department of Justice during President Joe Biden's administration. "It entrenches a two-tier system of justice in which wealth really can be a get-out-of-jail-free card." "All pardon and commutation decisions are solely made by President Trump, who is always willing to give well-deserving Americans a second chance — especially those who have been unfairly targeted by a corrupt justice system," White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said. Since Trump took office in January, he has pardoned or granted executive clemency to more than 1,500 people, most related to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. It's a significant uptick from a similar time frame during his first term in office. Even without the Jan. 6 defendants, Trump has pardoned 58 people; in his previous administration, Trump had pardoned just one person in his first year. In the past week alone, Trump has pardoned or commuted the sentences of 27 people. Many clemency recipients have been people with the means to elevate their case — allies, donors, celebrities and former politicians. There is a process for vetting pardon applications through the Justice Department's Office of the Pardon Attorney, but presidents have not always followed it. Some of the pardons Trump is granting, involving people currently incarcerated, would not be able to make it through the typical process. Unless the Justice Department grants a waiver, the regulations say that petitioners need to wait until five years after either the conviction or the end of their sentence, and they place a premium on acceptance of responsibility. As of this week, there are 6,394 applications for commutations and 1,529 applications for pardons. Not every Trump-aligned lobbyist is eager to take pardon work; some who have turned down offers said they have passed them along to a small handful of Trump supporters who then help the pardon-seeker get on the president's radar. In some cases, referral fees are paid to the lobbying firms even if they are not directly engaged to do the work, according to three people familiar with the process. "There are others, like us, who have turned down a bunch of that work, but generally the way that works is that they get referred to others who are helping," said a Washington-based lobbyist whose firm has been approached by people seeking a pardon. The person said that roughly half their client inquiries in recent months have been for pardon help. In the past, it was roughly 1 in 50 client solicitations. The Trump ally who is also a lobbyist said their firm is not taking pardon clients out of concern that they could face blowback when the political winds inevitably change. Another lobbyist said they turn down pardon work because it feels "sketchy." In a case that drew significant attention this week, Trump pardoned reality-TV stars Todd and Julie Chrisley, who were convicted in 2022 on fraud and tax evasion-related charges. The two built a national following through their reality show "Chrisley Knows Best." The pardons came after a public pressure campaign led by their daughter Savannah, a prominent Trump supporter with nearly 3 million followers on Instagram. Key to reaching Trump is pushing a message that will appeal to the president, particularly one around a politicization of justice by Democrats or overzealous prosecutors. "Weaponization is real," said Tolman, who is now a Fox News contributor and the executive director of the conservative-leaning criminal justice reform group Right on Crime. "If you are in power and you are willing to use the power of the prosecution to go after your political adversaries, how do we fix it?" His comments came during a 2024 panel at the Conservative Political Action Conference focused on the "weaponization" of the justice system. The panel also included now-Attorney General Pam Bondi and Savannah Chrisley, who used the platform to talk about her parents' case. Tolman has become one of the go-tos for help when people are seeking Trump pardons. He helped the Chrisleys, as well as Charles Kushner, the father of Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner. At the end of Trump's first term, he also lobbied Trump to pardon Ross Ulbricht, who in 2015 was sentenced to life in prison on narcotics and money-laundering charges related to his dark web marketplace Silk Road. Getting Ulbricht out of prison became a cause célèbre to many on the political right who thought he was unjustly targeted by the justice system. During the 2024 presidential campaign, Trump promised to pardon Ulbricht, and he did so as one of his first acts after taking office. Tolman did not respond to a request seeking comment. Other Trump allies who have played influential roles in the pardon process over the past few weeks include Washington attorney Adam Katz, who previously represented Giuliani and helped secure a sentence commutation for a California businesswoman in Trump's first term. Katz did not return a request seeking comment, but lobbyists interviewed by NBC News named him, along with Tolman, as two of the people to whom they refer pardon work. Corcoran Partners, a Florida-based lobbying firm whose managing partner includes Matt Blair, the brother of Trump deputy chief of staff James Blair, has also registered to lobby on federal pardon issues for the first time. In March, Matt Blair's firm registered to lobby on "pardon" issues for Juno Empire Inc., a Miami-based company that is identified in federal lobbying records as a "medical billing advocate." It's not clear what this company does or what its issue is, and there was no contact information available for Juno. Corcoran Partners did not return a request for comment. Longtime Trump confidant Roger Stone also registered in February to lobby for Roger Ver, who is nicknamed "Bitcoin Jesus" and, if extradited from Spain, faces up to 109 years in prison for, among other things, allegations that he tried to evade nearly $50 million in tax payments. It's the first time Stone's firm, Drake Ventures, formally registered to lobby on pardon issues, records show. An attorney for Ver did not return a request for comment. Some lawyers also see new hope for their clients in Trump's willingness to issue pardons. Tim Parlatore, a former member of Trump's legal team, represented Adm. Robert Burke, who was convicted in May of bribery. Parlatore told NBC News that he had unsuccessfully attempted to get Justice Department leadership to reconsider the Burke case before it went to trial, and that he'd try to secure a pardon now that Burke has been convicted. "I think I have a great appeal for Burke, but will I go and ask for a pardon? Absolutely! You'd be crazy not to," he said. "The way that that case was investigated and presented, I believe, was fundamentally unfair." Parlatore said he wanted to "pursue all possible remedies" for his client. "I'll go to call people and try to figure this thing out, whether it's Ed Martin, Alice Johnson," he said, referring to Trump's pardon attorney and his more informal "pardon czar." "I just want to make sure that that gets in front of the right people to make a decision." The president's pardon power, a vestige of the British monarchy, is largely unchecked. Trump isn't the first person to face criticism for controversial pardons. But the perception that Trump is leaning into rewarding supporters was boosted last week when Martin, Trump's current pardon attorney, openly signaled the political motivations for the pardon given to Scott Jenkins. The former Virginia sheriff was facing 10 years in prison after a federal jury found him guilty of taking $75,000 in return for doling out law enforcement authority to local businessmen, as well as two undercover FBI special agents. "No MAGA left behind," Martin posted on X after the pardon was announced. One staffer familiar with the pardon process said Martin and the administration were trying to "undo the damage from weaponization," often choosing to pardon people they felt were unfairly targeted. "You have a president who's going to exercise his presidential powers that he has from the Constitution, whether or not there's some guidebook," they said. "He does it on trade, he does it on immigration, and he does it everywhere." That staffer and other Trump allies argue that it was Biden's use of the power that has set the precedent under which they are currently operating. Biden pardoned or commuted the sentences of more than 8,000 people, including to his son Hunter, who was set to be sentenced on federal gun charges just weeks before the pardon was issued. On the way out of office, he also issued pre-emptive pardons for some members of his family, worried Trump would try to prosecute them. An administration official called Biden's pardon decisions an "absolutely earth-shattering departure from presidential norms." Trump supporters argue the potential hit to a president's reputation that previously existed for the perception of politicizing the clemency process is no longer there. "It's become easier after Hunter's pardon. Long gone are the days of an eleventh-hour pardon. It has become more transactional," the Trump ally and lobbyist said. Beyond increased payments to lobbying firms to help secure pardons, family members of those seeking pardons have also found it useful to amplify their platform by going on conservative media outlets that Trump is known to watch or appear in MAGA-friendly spaces. Savannah Chrisley, for example, spoke at the Republican National Convention and suggested her parents were targeted for being conservative. During a press conference Friday, she said it was a "misconception" that she "either paid for a pardon or slept for a pardon" for her parents. She said she simply went to Washington and made sure she was in "the right room at the right time" and "begged for meetings." "Many people have come on my OAN program to make their case for pardons," former Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, who became a news anchor for One America News Network after Trump unsuccessfully tried to install him as attorney general, told NBC News. "Some have not. Some might get granted in the future. I trust President Trump's judgment." Gaetz says he himself has not officially focused on pardon work but said his show, like others, can help amplify a pardon-seeker's case. "I've covered pardons as a journalist," he said. "One way people get on the pardon radar is coming on my show and making their case on other media President Trump is known to watch."
