Latest news with #RegionalGrowthTracker
Belfast Telegraph
12-08-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
NI only UK region to report employment growth in July, survey finds
But the Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker said the solid increase in employment was against a backdrop of falling output and declining new orders. New orders were down for the ninth month in a row with businesses still bedevilled by inflationary pressures and even Brexit-related problems getting goods from Great Britain, the monthly survey found. The tracker's headline business activity index was at 49.7, slightly below the no-change mark of 50 but above June's 48.2 reading. Ulster Bank said the two readings combined signalled a stabilising of private sector output at the start of the third quarter, mainly down to muted customer demand. And the manufacturing sector experienced the most marked fall in output, while there was increased activity in construction and retail, with service firms' output broadly stable. Sebastian Burnside, Ulster Bank chief economist, said: 'Although demand conditions generally remained subdued as the second half of the year got underway, Northern Ireland continued to outperform the rest of the UK in terms of job creation. "Staffing levels were up solidly amid positive expectations for the coming year. "Greater resources should hopefully help lead to a pick-up in business activity, which neared stabilisation in July.' But he said strong inflation was still a key headwind which was showing little sign of easing off. "For demand to really pick up over the second half of 2025, we will likely need to see some softening of price pressures in the near future.' According to the survey, business was finding that clients were reluctant to commit to spending, with new orders down for the ninth month in a row. Yet Northern Ireland firms were still optimistic that output will rise over the coming year, although sentiment eased to a three-month low and was just below the series average. And of 12 monitored areas of the UK, NI was the only one to record a rise in staffing levels during July – and that increase was the fastest in 10 months. According to Ulster Bank, 'the solid rise in staffing levels meant that companies in Northern Ireland were able to deplete backlogs of work again in July'. But suppliers' delivery times got longer for the second time in three months, and to the strongest degree in two-and-a-half years. 'Some firms reported delays in deliveries from the UK as a result of Brexit,' Ulster Bank said. In addition, input costs were up again, with NI facing the fasted rise of all 12 UK regions and many companies blaming the rise on higher staff costs. On Monday, the separate KPMG and REC report on jobs said hiring activity had fallen in July as the UK jobs market was weighed down by concerns over the economic outlook and increased labour costs.
Belfast Telegraph
08-07-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
Employment numbers rise in June at NI companies, says Ulster Bank report
But the Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker said there had been a modest reduction in business activity here during June, reversing May's expansion. However, Northern Ireland was the only one out of 12 monitored UK areas to post a rise in employment, although the pace of job creation was slight. Some respondents to Ulster Bank's survey said previous recruiting difficulties had eased, which allowed them to fill vacancies. But new orders decreased, although companies were still optimistic about the future, with selling price inflation easing even though there had been a rapid increase in input costs. And around one-third linked the rise in input costs to increases in wages and employer national insurance contributions. The tracker's headline business activity index, which measures private sector output, was at 48.2, below the 50.0 no-change mark and indicating a modest fall in output. Construction was the only monitored sector to buck the wider trend and post an increase in activity. And retail reported the sharpest decline over the month, with new contractions for both manufacturing and services. Sebastian Burnside, chief economist for Ulster Bank, said: 'There was good news for the local labour market in June as companies reported an easing of recent recruiting difficulties as they expanded workforce numbers for the first time since January. Moreover, Northern Ireland was the only area of the UK to see employment rise. 'Other aspects of the latest Growth Tracker paint a more subdued picture, however. The expansion in output we saw last month was not sustained into June as new order inflows remained muted. "Companies are still confident about the year-ahead outlook, however, so we will hopefully see some demand and output improvements during the second half of the year. 'Although output prices increased sharply on the back of further rapid cost rises, there was a further slowdown in the pace of selling price inflation. "If continued, this could potentially help to support demand improvements over the months ahead.' The survey found that the growth in employment meant that firms were able to tackle their backlogs of work at a steady pace. However, the pace of input price inflation was above the series average.
Belfast Telegraph
22-04-2025
- Business
- Belfast Telegraph
‘I'm positive about the economic prospects for Northern Ireland'
This year's awards ceremony on May 1 at Belfast's Crowne Plaza Hotel will take place against an unpredictable backdrop as the world adjusts to US President Donald Trump's tariffs policy and his ensuing trade war with China. But with 27 years of banking under his belt, Ulster Bank's head of Northern Ireland Mark Crimmins isn't giving in to panic. 'There are pretty turbulent times at the moment, but it's about a steady hand on the ship. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves or too excited. 'We're pausing for reflection on this to understand, what is the medium term position? Let's not be hasty, let's not make rash judgments or take rash actions.' We as an organisation are well placed to support our customers as we go through this from a capital liquidity perspective, and we have no immediate plans to change our risk policies or how we approach business. The bank's focus is therefore on the medium-term, rather than the day to day unpredictability of decision-making at the Oval Office. And at this point, the global economy is no stranger to a crisis — which Mark says is helpful. 'From our perspective, we've got good muscle-memory from recent crises, whether that be Covid, whether that be war in Ukraine and inflation etc. 'We as an organisation are well placed to support our customers as we go through this from a capital liquidity perspective, and we have no immediate plans to change our risk policies or how we approach business. 'It's very much a steady as she goes, and we're not going to make any knee-jerk judgments or take any knee-jerk action. We're in a good place to support our customers and our customers will be our priority over the next couple of months as events unfold.' His experience of talking to business of late is that businesspeople are focused on the longer-term problems like skills, infrastructure and climate change. There have been no dramatic anecdotes about the impact of tariffs, he says. 'I'm not hearing about delaying production runs or not being able to get shipments shipped or anything like that. Generally what I have heard is, 'there's no panic, we'll reflect, monitor the situation and assess as we go'. 'The picture is so complex, and if you're trying to theoretically unwind supply chains and marketing chains that have been established for decades and decades, it would be a pretty brave economist or banker that would try to quantify the impact of all of that.' He says the bank's own experience of 2024 is that it was a positive year for the NI economy, also reflected in the bank's monthly Regional Growth Tracker report on economic performance across UK regions. 'Interestingly, for most of 2024, NI found itself in the top half of the tracker, and that's quite unusual because normally we'd be down the bottom. 'For us, that played out within our business and our lending book performed the strongest it has in some time. All four customer segments — micro, small, medium and large businesses - were ahead of plan.' He said that when the impact of Covid-19 era government loans is removed, the bank's book had grown over the year by 13 to 15%. However, Ulster Bank no longer reports separate financial results as it's subsumed into the reporting of parent company, NatWest. Things are positive so far in 2025. 'Early financial difficulty among clients is negligible, liquidity on the portfolio is holding up extremely well and the value and volume of money in current accounts or deposit accounts is holding up pretty well. 'There's no adverse trend in overdraft utilisation or standby credit lines, invoice finance lines or other temporary lines. You tend to find that when a little liquidity pressure comes onto the economy, those lines get used up a little more. 'There are current challenges, there's no question about that. It's a turbulent time at the moment but generally outside of that, what we've seen over the last 12 to 18 months in particular and continued to see immediately prior to the present turbulence, was general positivity.' The aforementioned muscle memory means 'we're much more resilient and I think we're much more adaptable to crises'. 'Notwithstanding the current turbulence, and if the world finds a way to work its way through that, I'd be relatively positive about the prospects for Northern Ireland.' Mark was interviewed by Business Telegraph last year in the run-up to the Business Awards, when he made an accurate prediction of where the Bank of England base rate would be by now. At this point, he says the bank is factoring in another one or two cuts over the remainder of the year from the present level of 4.5%. As leader of the headline sponsor of the awards, Mark is a member of the awards judging panel, which has chosen winners across 17 categories. Winners in two non-entry categories of Lifetime Achievement and Overall Business of the Year will also be announced on the night. Mark presented last year's Lifetime Achievement award to entrepreneur Dame Rotha Johnston. 'It's something I always enjoy,' Mark said of his judging duties. 'The panel is a very informed and diligent. It's always a joy to do it and be able to lift the head out of day to day banking activity and focus on entrepreneurship. 'I find the quality of the entrants to be excellent and it's a real privilege to be reading through their applications, to see the quality of those businesses in Northern Ireland.' Like all employers, the bank adjusted during the Covid-19 pandemic and emerged with a lasting change to its working practices. The bank's staff are generally remote-first, office-first and/or working on a hybrid basis. We trust our staff, they're professional, make good judgments and at the same time, are by and large delivering results for the bank and customers. Remote-first jobs tend to be managers in areas like HR, project management or risk, while office-first tend to be those who work in branches and therefore have to be in that location to fulfil their contract. Those on the business side of the bank tend to be hybrid, and there are no mandatory requirements for office attendance. 'We leave a lot of room for individual judgment around whether they should be in the office or with customers or at a home, and the activity of the role that they happen to be doing. 'What we have found is that people are exercising good judgment and we've no intention of trying to mandate to them how many days they need to spend in the office, with customers or at home. 'We trust our staff, they're professional, make good judgments and at the same time, are by and large delivering results for the bank and customers.' Outside work, sport is a huge passion for Mark and some of his family members at home in Mayobridge, Co Down. Adam (22), the eldest of Mark and his wife's three children, this year joined the senior panel for Down's GAA team. We spoke ahead of Down's first clash of the championship against Fermanagh — happily for Mark, it ended in a good result for Down with a 2-19 to 23 points win over the Ernemen. 'Adam is a final year accounting student at Queen's and trying to combine his studies with footballing interests. I'll give you all the excuses I want but I didn't quite get that far. But sport is a great way to spend your spare time, and I coach the senior ladies' team. We just started a ladies' senior team about three years ago.' Like Adam, his two daughters, who are 20 and 19, have found their way into number-related subjects at university. His older daughter is studying economics and finance and the youngest is studying accounting at Queen's. 'I never forced them or encouraged them but maybe they're just wired for numbers.' And he says sport can have relevance in business. 'It's important that people understand leader personality because it influences the way they think about business, it influences how they set up their teams, how they manage and treat the team. 'I always find it interesting to help understand the individual and not just the business messaging.'
