Latest news with #ReneWagner
Yahoo
08-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China narrows gap with US as Germany's biggest trading partner
By Rene Wagner and Maria Martinez BERLIN (Reuters) -China came close to overtaking the United States as Germany's largest trading partner in the first half of 2025, preliminary data from the German statistics office showed, as German exports to the U.S. declined amid higher tariffs. German imports and exports with the U.S. totalled about 125 billion euros ($145 billion) from January to June, while trade with China reached 122.8 billion euros, according to Reuters calculations. "Although the U.S. was able to defend its position as Germany's most important trading partner, the lead over German trade with China is razor-thin," said Vincent Stamer, economist at Commerzbank. The U.S. had overtaken China as Germany's top trading partner in 2024, ending an eight-year streak for China. The shift came as Germany sought to reduce its reliance on China, with Berlin citing political differences and accusing Beijing of unfair practices. Trade dynamics shifted again, however, in 2025 with Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed tariffs. The EU's trade deal with the U.S. in July set tariffs at 15% for most products. 'As the year progresses, losses in German exports to the U.S. are likely to continue and even intensify,' said Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. German exports to the U.S. fell 3.9% to 77.6 billion euros in the first half compared to the same period last year. Commerzbank expects new U.S. tariffs to slow Germany's exports to the U.S. by 20% to 25% over the next two years. 'As a result, China is likely to regain the top spot among Germany's trading partners over the course of the year,' Stamer said. CHINESE IMPORTS SURGE Imports from China surged 10.7% year-on-year in the first half, reaching 81.4 billion euros. 'Apparently, German companies and consumers find it difficult to replace Chinese goods,' Stamer said. The rise may indicate China has begun redirecting trade from the U.S. to Europe, flooding the German and European market with cheaper goods, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. A significant undervaluation of the yuan against the euro is also making Chinese imports cheaper, said Cologne Institute's Matthes. German exports to China fell 14.2% to 41.4 billion euros, with exporters struggling amid increased competition from Chinese manufacturers. The sharp decline in exports to China, combined with surging imports, has led to a record trade deficit of 40 billion euros, second only to 2022. 'All these developments are damaging the German economy and further exacerbating the industrial crisis,' Matthes said. ($1 = 0.8600 euros)
Yahoo
08-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China narrows gap with US as Germany's biggest trading partner
By Rene Wagner and Maria Martinez BERLIN (Reuters) -China came close to overtaking the United States as Germany's largest trading partner in the first half of 2025, preliminary data from the German statistics office showed, as German exports to the U.S. declined amid higher tariffs. German imports and exports with the U.S. totalled about 125 billion euros ($145 billion) from January to June, while trade with China reached 122.8 billion euros, according to Reuters calculations. "Although the U.S. was able to defend its position as Germany's most important trading partner, the lead over German trade with China is razor-thin," said Vincent Stamer, economist at Commerzbank. The U.S. had overtaken China as Germany's top trading partner in 2024, ending an eight-year streak for China. The shift came as Germany sought to reduce its reliance on China, with Berlin citing political differences and accusing Beijing of unfair practices. Trade dynamics shifted again, however, in 2025 with Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed tariffs. The EU's trade deal with the U.S. in July set tariffs at 15% for most products. 'As the year progresses, losses in German exports to the U.S. are likely to continue and even intensify,' said Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. German exports to the U.S. fell 3.9% to 77.6 billion euros in the first half compared to the same period last year. Commerzbank expects new U.S. tariffs to slow Germany's exports to the U.S. by 20% to 25% over the next two years. 'As a result, China is likely to regain the top spot among Germany's trading partners over the course of the year,' Stamer said. CHINESE IMPORTS SURGE Imports from China surged 10.7% year-on-year in the first half, reaching 81.4 billion euros. 'Apparently, German companies and consumers find it difficult to replace Chinese goods,' Stamer said. The rise may indicate China has begun redirecting trade from the U.S. to Europe, flooding the German and European market with cheaper goods, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. A significant undervaluation of the yuan against the euro is also making Chinese imports cheaper, said Cologne Institute's Matthes. German exports to China fell 14.2% to 41.4 billion euros, with exporters struggling amid increased competition from Chinese manufacturers. The sharp decline in exports to China, combined with surging imports, has led to a record trade deficit of 40 billion euros, second only to 2022. 'All these developments are damaging the German economy and further exacerbating the industrial crisis,' Matthes said. ($1 = 0.8600 euros) Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
08-08-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China narrows gap with US as Germany's biggest trading partner
By Rene Wagner and Maria Martinez BERLIN (Reuters) -China came close to overtaking the United States as Germany's largest trading partner in the first half of 2025, preliminary data from the German statistics office showed, as German exports to the U.S. declined amid higher tariffs. German imports and exports with the U.S. totalled about 125 billion euros ($145 billion) from January to June, while trade with China reached 122.8 billion euros, according to Reuters calculations. "Although the U.S. was able to defend its position as Germany's most important trading partner, the lead over German trade with China is razor-thin," said Vincent Stamer, economist at Commerzbank. The U.S. had overtaken China as Germany's top trading partner in 2024, ending an eight-year streak for China. The shift came as Germany sought to reduce its reliance on China, with Berlin citing political differences and accusing Beijing of unfair practices. Trade dynamics shifted again, however, in 2025 with Donald Trump's return to the White House and renewed tariffs. The EU's trade deal with the U.S. in July set tariffs at 15% for most products. 'As the year progresses, losses in German exports to the U.S. are likely to continue and even intensify,' said Juergen Matthes, head of international economic policy at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. German exports to the U.S. fell 3.9% to 77.6 billion euros in the first half compared to the same period last year. Commerzbank expects new U.S. tariffs to slow Germany's exports to the U.S. by 20% to 25% over the next two years. 'As a result, China is likely to regain the top spot among Germany's trading partners over the course of the year,' Stamer said. CHINESE IMPORTS SURGE Imports from China surged 10.7% year-on-year in the first half, reaching 81.4 billion euros. 'Apparently, German companies and consumers find it difficult to replace Chinese goods,' Stamer said. The rise may indicate China has begun redirecting trade from the U.S. to Europe, flooding the German and European market with cheaper goods, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. A significant undervaluation of the yuan against the euro is also making Chinese imports cheaper, said Cologne Institute's Matthes. German exports to China fell 14.2% to 41.4 billion euros, with exporters struggling amid increased competition from Chinese manufacturers. The sharp decline in exports to China, combined with surging imports, has led to a record trade deficit of 40 billion euros, second only to 2022. 'All these developments are damaging the German economy and further exacerbating the industrial crisis,' Matthes said. ($1 = 0.8600 euros) Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
Yahoo
08-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
German economic institutes cut forecast for 2025 to 0.1% growth, sources say
By Rene Wagner and Christian Kraemer BERLIN (Reuters) - German economic institutes have cut their forecast for this year to 0.1% growth from the 0.8% growth expected in September, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday, adding that the revision does not include yet the latest tariffs announced by the United States. Germany was the only G7 economy that failed to grow for the last two years. The tariffs announced by President Donald Trump will deal a major blow to Europe's biggest economy, possibly putting it on track for a third year of recession for the first time in history. For 2026, the institutes forecast economic growth of just above 1.0%, the sources said, without giving an exact number. The previous forecast for next year was 1.3%. After the February election, the conservatives led by Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz and the Social Democrats, who are negotiating to form a government, announced a 500 billion euro ($544 billion) fund for infrastructure and sweeping changes to borrowing rules to bolster defence and revive growth. The fiscal package improves the economic outlook for 2026 and 2027. The new forecasts factor in U.S. tariffs of 25% on EU aluminium, steel and cars, but not the tariff increases of 20% on other goods announced last Wednesday, the sources told Reuters. The forecasts will be officially published on Thursday. The economy ministry incorporates the combined estimates from the institutes into its own predictions. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
28-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Germany must address structural weaknesses to keep AAA rating, Scope says
By Rene Wagner BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany needs to overcome its structural weaknesses if it wants to keep its AAA credit rating in the long term, Eiko Sievert, executive director at European ratings agency, Scope Ratings, told Reuters in an interview. "Weaker GDP growth alone does not pose an immediate threat to Germany's AAA rating, even if economic stagnation continues into 2025," Sievert said. "However, the pressure on the rating will increase if Germany is unable to tackle the causes of its weak growth." Germany's economy contracted for a second year in 2024, as its exports suffered amid weak global demand and competition, especially from China. Disagreements over how to promote recovery in Europe's largest economy were the main factor behind the demise of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's fractious three-party coalition last year, and the economy is the top concern among German voters. According to Sievert, the structural weaknesses include high energy prices, "which take a toll on Germany's production and export strength," a lack of investment in infrastructure, education and digitalisation, and inadequate labour market reforms, which weaken international competitiveness. Having a low national debt level of 63% of GDP speaks in favour of Germany's high creditworthiness when compared with other major European economies but this alone is not a guarantee of keeping the AAA rating, Sievert said, as the rating takes into consideration other factors. The other AAA countries rated by Scope have an even lower average debt level of 36%, Sievert told Reuters. "Within the AAA group, Germany even has the highest level of government debt." Germany has a debt brake, which limits public borrowing to 0.35% of gross domestic product, and forms an important part of the German fiscal policy framework, Sievert said. However, a reform of the debt brake, which would enable more growth-promoting public investment, would certainly be positive, he added. "If Germany wants to halt the gradual decline in its competitiveness, then the next German government should focus on significantly increasing investment," Sievert said. Germany will hold a snap national election on Feb. 23. Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings also have an AAA rating on Germany. Sign in to access your portfolio
