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UPI
2 days ago
- Business
- UPI
Trump firing top official may undercut trust in labor statistics
BLS statistics could be faked in ways that would deceive economists. But they could become much less useful, and that would be bad for the United States. Photo by Kindel Media/ Pexels Many financial and political analysts are trying to assess the impact of President Donald Trump's decision to fire U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntrfer on Aug. 1, the same day that an unemployment report conveyed weakness in the job market. Some of the strongest criticism of this unprecedented move has come from Republican-aligned and nonpartisan experts, including a former BLS commissioner Trump appointed during his first term and the American Economic Association, a nonprofit that has 17,000 members in academic, government and business professions. They have said that what Trump has accused McEntarfer of doing -- "rigging" data" -- would be impossible to pull off. The Conversation U.S. asked Tom Stapleford, a professor who has written a book on the political history of the U.S. consumer price index, to explain why this move could undermine trust in the indicators the government releases and why that could damage the economy. What key data does the BLS release? Founded in 1884, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes monthly and annual data about American consumers and workers. Historically, the BLS has focused on urban workers and consumers, while the Department of Agriculture covered farmers and agricultural work. But these days, the Bureau of Labor Statistics also collects some data reflecting rural areas too. The bureau publishes monthly data on inflation, employment and unemployment and compensation. It also measures productivity on a quarterly basis, and twice per year it issues reports on consumer purchases -- what people buy and how much they spend in different categories. These official statistics are often revised in the months that follow as the bureau adopts new methods or more data becomes available. The bureau's data on inflation, employment, unemployment and compensation draws the most attention because it answers basic questions about the economy. For example: Are prices rising? Are employers adding new jobs? Are people finding work? How much are workers getting paid? Employment and unemployment may seem very similar, but they show you different things. BLS employment data tells you how many jobs there are, where they are and in what lines of work. BLS unemployment data is about people. How many Americans are looking for work but can't find a job? How many have part-time jobs but would prefer to work full time? The BLS also collects, analyzes and releases inflation data that shows how price changes are affecting American consumers. The BLS consumer price index data is weighted so that changes in the prices of items that are a big part of household expenses will have a larger effect on the final results than other changes. Each BLS statistic has a narrow focus, but, taken together, they can reveal a lot about economic conditions across the country and in specific states. Businesses and investors look to BLS data as guides for trends that might affect companies or financial markets as a whole. If prices start to rise quickly, the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates, which reduces bond prices. If job creation starts to slow, the country might be heading toward a recession, and employers might pull back on hiring and production or invest less in new equipment. Policymakers use BLS statistics to guide decisions about government actions, and everyone else may use them to judge whether politicians have succeeded in managing the economy well. Of course, all of these uses depend on Americans being able to trust the numbers. The BLS goes to great lengths to secure that trust, publishing detailed descriptions of its methods and research papers that try to explain patterns in the data and test new approaches. Until recently, the BLS also had two unpaid advisory committees of economists and statisticians from companies, universities and nonprofits that analyzed BLS methods and offered advice. However, the Department of Labor disbanded those committees in March 2025, stating that the committees "had fulfilled their intended purpose." What does the BLS commissioner do? The BLS commissioner oversees all aspects of the bureau's operations and serves as the primary liaison with Congress and the leadership of the Department of Labor. Although some early BLS commissioners did not have advanced degrees, all commissioners since the 1930s have had doctorates in economics or statistics, as well as substantial experience using or producing statistical data. Unlike rank-and-file BLS staff, who are typically career civil servants, the commissioner is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate for a four-year term. Due to the timing of those terms, each commissioner's tenure normally spans two presidential terms. The Senate overwhelmingly approved McEntarfer's nomination, for example, in an 86-8 vote in January 2024. However, this appointment is at will, meaning that a president can legally remove a commissioner at any time. Could the top BLS official fudge any data? It would be very difficult for the commissioner to alter or falsify data on his or her own. The data is produced collectively by a large nonpartisan staff who are protected by civil service regulations, so it would be impossible for the commissioner simply to change the numbers. Nonetheless, the commissioner could shape BLS data indirectly. The commissioner could make certain data harder to access, devote fewer resources to some topics or close some data series altogether. More significantly, creating national statistics is complicated: There is always uncertainty, and even experts will disagree on many issues. A sufficiently motivated commissioner could potentially nudge the data in favored directions simply by altering the methodology. If BLS staff thought a commissioner was truly trying to manipulate the statistics, however, I would expect many of them would resign or protest publicly. And there's no sign of that having happened under McEntarfer's leadership. She has strong support from former BLS commissioners and leading economists. What are some possible consequences? I do not expect to see any immediate consequences from McEntarfer's firing. The acting commissioner of the BLS, William Wiatrowski, is a longtime BLS employee who has held this role before. The rest of the bureau's staff remain the same. Over the long term, the actions of whomever Trump appoints as McEntarfer's permanent replacement will determine whether her firing was an aberration or the mark of a new relationship between the White House and the BLS that could eventually undercut trust in its statistics. To strengthen confidence in the BLS, the new commissioner could reinstate the external advisory committees that the Trump administration has disbanded. But he or she could weaken confidence by making controversial changes, especially regarding employment statistics, that are criticized by leading professional organizations or that cause top BLS officials to quit their jobs. I believe it's unlikely that BLS statistics could be faked in ways that would deceive economists. But they could become much less useful, and that would be bad for the United States. Thomas A. Stapleford is an associate Professor of history and liberal studies at the University of Notre Dame. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. The views and opinions in this commentary are solely those of the author.
India Today
01-07-2025
- Politics
- India Today
It's a shame: Vivek Ramaswamy slams troll targeting Zohran Mamdani, Usha Vance
Republican leader Vivek Ramaswamy has condemned what he called the 'race-obsessed fringe of the right' after being lumped into a xenophobic tirade alongside fellow Indian-origin leaders New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani and US Second Lady Usha comments came in response to a post by white supremacist influencer Nick Fuentes, who called on conservatives attacking Mamdani to apply the same scrutiny to Ramaswamy and Usha wrote on X, 'When conservatives attack Zohran Mamdani for being a foreigner, I just want them to keep the same energy with Vivek Ramaswamy and Usha Vance. Let's be consistent.' Vivek Ramaswamy hits back at influencer Ramaswamy, retweeting the post, fired back, 'It's a shame to watch the race-obsessed fringe of the right try to outdo the race-obsessed woke left.'The exchange comes amid a broader controversy surrounding Zohran Mamdani after a viral video showing him eating rice and dal with his hands during an interview triggered a heated culture war online. The video, captioned 'Zohran says his worldview is inspired by the 3rd world while eating rice with his hands,' quickly became a Congressman Brandon Gill joined the backlash, tweeting, 'Civilised people in America don't eat like this. If you refuse to adopt Western customs, go back to the Third World.'The remarks drew immediate criticism, with many accusing Gill and others of racial intolerance and cultural ignorance. While some accused Mamdani of using cultural traditions for 'performative politics,' others argued the criticism reflected deep-seated controversy has escalated into calls from some Republican-aligned groups for a federal investigation into Mamdani's citizenship status. Former ICE director Tom Homan even threatened tougher enforcement on 'sanctuary cities,' implicitly targeting Mamdani, 33, is an Indian-American Muslim and the son of renowned filmmaker Mira Nair. This week, he made history as the first Muslim nominee for the Democratic Party in the New York City mayoral race, following the withdrawal of former Governor Andrew pop culture with progressive politics—frequently through Bollywood-inspired campaign videos—Mamdani has cultivated a strong online following. But his groundbreaking candidacy now faces intense scrutiny amid a deepening cultural and political backlash.- Ends
Time of India
21-06-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
Trump's Tulsi problem: Wanted a minion, picked a maverick
After Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard has found that US President Donald Trump may pick a maverick when he actually wants a minion. When Gabbard was named Director of National Intelligence by Trump in November 2024, it symbolized one of the most dramatic ideological journeys in recent American politics. A former Democrat who once vocally opposed Trump's foreign policy, Gabbard's trajectory from progressive dissident to a Republican-aligned intelligence chief highlighted not only her political adaptability but also Trump's penchant for tapping unconventional allies. Yet less than a year into her tenure, the alliance appears to be fraying. Trump's public rebuke of Gabbard on Friday, accusing her of being "wrong" about Iran's nuclear ambitions, has cast doubt on her future in the administration and underscored the volatile dynamics within Trump's camp as he navigates his comeback bid. What first riled Trump was a video Gabbard posted on X on June 10 in which she warned that "political elite and warmongers" are "carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers," putting the world "on the brink of nuclear annihilation." A person close to the president told Politico that he viewed the video as Gabbard warning him not to greenlight Israel attacking Iran. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 발톱무좀 고민이신분! 제발 이 글 필독하세요! 홈시네라이프 더 알아보기 Undo Also Read: Nuclear war! US intel chief warns world is on the edge of annihilation From DNC pariah to MAGA ally Live Events You Might Also Like: Trump vs Tulsi Gabbard: Is US President planning to fire US spy chief over provocative anti-war video? Gabbard's departure from the Democratic Party in October 2022 did not come as a shock. Her criticism of the party's 'warmongering elite' and her staunch opposition to interventionist foreign policy had long made her an outsider. Yet few anticipated how quickly she would pivot toward Trump's orbit. By mid-2023, Gabbard was appearing frequently on conservative media, praising Trump-era foreign policy and criticizing President Biden's approach to Ukraine and Iran. Her endorsement of Trump in August 2024 was a significant political moment—particularly as it came while Trump was consolidating his position in the Republican primary. Gabbard's appeal to Trump was multi-dimensional: her military service lent credibility to Trump's America First messaging; her defection from the Democrats reinforced his narrative of a party in disarray; and her rising profile in conservative circles offered a fresh face to appeal to independent voters. Trump's decision to nominate her as DNI in November 2024 surprised many but aligned with his history of installing loyalists in key positions, often outside traditional establishment picks. Trump values loyalty but is also attracted to figures who carry an aura of independence, so long as it doesn't directly challenge his authority. Gabbard was useful to Trump because she legitimized his anti-establishment credentials while also appealing to veterans and libertarian-leaning conservatives. Her appointment as DNI was also tactical: Trump sought to shake up the intelligence community, which he has long viewed with suspicion. She, as an outsider with military gravitas and a maverick reputation, fit the bill. Her initial cooperation and alignment with Trump's broad foreign policy themes -- anti-interventionism, skepticism of the intelligence "deep state," and a focus on China -- made her a valuable asset. But Trump's pattern of burning bridges with appointees who assert independence has a long precedent, and Gabbard may now be next in line. You Might Also Like: Trump says Tulsi Gabbard was 'wrong' about Iran, Israeli strikes could be 'very hard to stop' Is Trump preparing to fire Gabbard? Earlier, a Politico report had said that Trump had increasingly mused about nixing Gabbard's office completely. Trump thought Gabbard did not add anything to "any conversation", the report said citing insiders. A few days ago, reports claimed that he is relying on a high-profile group of Cabinet picks and not those who are supposed to be advising him by the virtue of their posts: Gabbard and Defense secretary Pete Hegseth. The rupture had begun with Gabbard's testimony to Congress in March 2025. She stated that the U.S. intelligence community 'continued to assess that Tehran is not currently pursuing a nuclear weapon,' echoing long-standing assessments from both the Biden and previous Trump-era intelligence reports. Trump, however, has taken a harder line in recent months, arguing that Iran is 'weeks away' from acquiring a nuclear bomb -- statements likely influenced by his desire to project strength in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms and potentially 2028. When Gabbard's testimony was raised in a press gaggle on Monday evening, Trump dismissed her comments, saying, 'I don't care what she says.' By Friday, the rebuke was more explicit. Trump's public rebuke of Gabbard suggests a brewing frustration with her unwillingness to bend the intelligence narrative to align with his political messaging, a pattern seen in past Trump appointments, from James Comey to John Bolton. The public criticism, particularly over an issue as significant as Iran's nuclear program, is a red flag. For Trump, public disagreements with his appointees often precede dismissal. Gabbard's claim that her March testimony was 'taken out of context' suggests she is attempting damage control, but it may not be enough. Behind the scenes, Trump loyalists have reportedly grown uneasy with Gabbard's growing media presence and her continued framing of intelligence assessments in ways that don't always align with Trump's messaging. If Trump believes Gabbard is undermining his narrative, especially on a high-profile national security issue, her tenure may be on borrowed time. A dismissal, however, could come with risks. Firing Gabbard could alienate independent voters and veterans who see her as a voice of reason within the Trump movement. It may also reignite debates over Trump's handling of intelligence during his prior presidency. If removed, Gabbard has a number of options. Her reputation as a principled non-interventionist still holds sway with a segment of the right—and even some independents. She could pivot to a media career, possibly on platforms like Fox News, Newsmax, or a new independent outlet. Politically, she could mount a Senate run or become a prominent surrogate for another faction within the GOP, possibly even challenging Trumpism from within if his grip on the party begins to loosen. Alternatively, she may bide her time, reemerging post-Trump with renewed relevance in a reshaped Republican landscape. The Trump-Gabbard saga encapsulates the volatility of MAGA politics. Their alliance was one of strategic convenience more than ideological cohesion. Trump elevated Gabbard because she was useful; now, as she asserts independence on sensitive intelligence matters, she risks becoming expendable.
Indian Express
19-06-2025
- Business
- Indian Express
As US eyes its airspace, Pakistan confirms: Trump, Munir had discussion on Iran
As anticipated by Delhi, US President Donald Trump and Pakistan Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir had a 'detailed exchange of views' on the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict when they met over lunch at the White House. In a statement Thursday, the Pakistan Army said, 'A detailed exchange of views also took place on the prevailing tensions between Iran and Israel, with both leaders emphasising the importance of resolution of the conflict.' Asked if Iran was discussed with Munir, Trump said: 'Well, they know Iran very well, better than most, and they are not happy about anything.' 'It's not that they are bad with Israel. They know them both, actually, but they probably, maybe they know Iran better, but they see what's going on, and he agreed with me,' he said. In Islamabad, the Pakistan Army said the US President showed 'keen interest' in developing a mutually beneficial trade relationship with Pakistan on the basis of long-term strategic interests. According to Delhi's assessment, the US is enlisting Rawalpindi's support since it would want to use Pakistan's airspace, air bases and other infrastructure for launching any military offensive on Iran. This was the key focus of Trump's lunch with Munir which, according to sources, lasted for about two hours, and not one hour as scheduled. According to news agency Reuters, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump was hosting Munir after he called for the US President to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for preventing a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. But sources indicated that the meeting was not arranged through routine diplomatic channels, and was the outcome of 'unorthodox efforts' by a group of advisers, businessmen and other influential figures. Sources said stronger counter-terrorism cooperation, engagement with crypto-linked influence networks, and targeted lobbying via Republican-aligned firms in Washington helped Pakistan secure the meeting. A source, who has been tracking the US-Pakistan relationship over decades, said, 'It is not rare but absolutely unprecedented for a military chief to be invited by a POTUS (President of the United States) for a meeting, let alone a meeting over a meal. All Pakistan military chiefs who visited the US and other capitals did so as Presidents.' In the past, US President George W Bush met Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf in 2004. Munir's US visit began last Sunday and was his second since he took over as military chief in 2022. Trump was effusive about both Munir and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He said he was 'honoured' to meet Munir and that they discussed the situation arising out of the Iran-Israel conflict. 'The reason I had him here, I want to thank him for not going into the war, ending the war (with India). And I want to thank, as you know, Prime Minister Modi,' he said. 'We are working on a trade deal with India. We are working on a trade deal with Pakistan.' Trump also recalled his meeting with Modi at the White House in February. He said he was 'happy' that 'two very smart people decided not to keep going with that war'. 'That could have been a nuclear war. Those are two nuclear powers, big ones, big, big nuclear powers, and they decided (to end the conflict),' he said. The US President was accompanied at the meeting by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Munir was joined by Pakistan National Security Advisor Lt Gen Asim Malik, who is also head of the spy agency ISI. Earlier, in his phone conversation with Trump, Modi had told the President that India and Pakistan halted their military actions following direct talks between the two militaries without any mediation by the US. The Pakistan Army, in its statement on the Trump-Munir meeting, said, the 'Chief of Army Staff conveyed the deep appreciation of the government and people of Pakistan for President Trump's constructive and result-oriented role in facilitating a ceasefire between Pakistan and India in the recent regional crisis. The COAS acknowledged President Trump's statesmanship and his ability to comprehend and address the multifaceted challenges faced by the global community.' 'President Trump, in turn, lauded Pakistan's ongoing efforts for regional peace and stability, and appreciated the robust counter-terrorism cooperation between the two states. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to continued collaboration in the field of counter-terrorism,' it said. 'Discussions also encompassed avenues for expanding bilateral cooperation in multiple domains including trade, economic development, mines and minerals, artificial intelligence, energy, cryptocurrency, and emerging technologies. President Trump expressed keen interest in forging a mutually beneficial trade partnership with Pakistan based on long-term strategic convergence and shared interests,' it said. 'In a gesture reflecting the warmth of bilateral ties, Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir extended an invitation to President Trump, on behalf of the Government of Pakistan, to undertake an official visit to Pakistan at a mutually convenient date'
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Trump: Immigration crackdown to focus on NYC, other ‘crime-ridden inner cities'
President Donald Trump vowed Monday to focus his immigration crackdown on so-called 'crime ridden inner cities' like New York after he ordered an end to controversial workplace raids on farms, restaurants and hotels amid complaints from big businesses. As immigration protests roil the nation, Trump said on his social media site that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents 'must expand efforts to detain and deport illegal aliens in America's largest cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York.' 'I want them to focus on the cities. I look at New York, I look at Chicago, the city's been overrun by criminals,' Trump said at the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada. 'Most of those (undocumented immigrants) are in the cities, all blue cities,' he added, flanked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. 'They think they're going to use them to vote,' he said, citing no evidence to back his claims. It's not going to happen.' Trump claimed the shift is needed because New York and other big cities are the 'core of the Democrat power center.' It wasn't immediately clear if Trump's announcement might lead to more immigration enforcement on the streets of New York and other big cities, which can be difficult and dangerous to successfully execute. Trump's tough talk reflects increasing divisions within his base of support over the mass deportation push, which threatens to inflict significant damage on the U.S. economy, especially industries that rely on undocumented immigrants for a big share of their low-wage labor. Even as Trump's projects a hardline stance, the White House last week directed immigration officers to pause arrests at farms, restaurants and hotels after Trump expressed alarm about the impact aggressive enforcement is having on those industries. Trump conceded Thursday that he heard from hotel, agriculture and leisure industries that his 'very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long time workers away from them' and promised that unspecified 'big changes' would be made. That same day Tatum King, an official with ICE's Homeland Security Investigations unit, wrote to regional leaders telling them to halt investigations of the agriculture industry, including meatpackers, as well as of restaurants and hotels, all of which employ millions of undocumented immigrants. The apparent backtracking from the aggressive mass deportation push has sparked divisions within Trump's MAGA movement, with some far right-wing figures urging him not to back down. White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, a key hardliner and the main architect of Trump's immigration policies, said ICE officers would seek to make at least 3,000 arrests a day. That would amount to a massive increase from the average of 650 a day during the first five months of Trump's second term, a number that is similar to the pace of arrests during former President Joe Biden's rule. But powerful Republican-aligned business groups, along with moderate and farm-state GOP lawmakers, are urging Trump to ease the crackdown to avoid further damaging the fragile U.S. economy, which is already facing uncertainty stemming from his still-expanding trade war.
