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Politico
2 days ago
- Politics
- Politico
Ciattarelli's GOP chair choice
Presented by Good Monday morning! Nothing's official yet, including the Republican nominee for governor, but it's looking like the New Jersey State Republican Party will soon be run by Glenn Paulsen. Ciattarelli late last week indicated to Republican leaders that Paulsen will likely be his choice to run the party if he wins the nomination in June, which looks likely. Party nominees traditionally get to pick the state chair until at least November, though it hasn't always happened that way. Paulsen is a 14-year former Burlington County GOP chair, back when that county, now quite Democratic, was a bastion of Republicanism. He was often called a 'boss,' and he maintained a strong GOP organization along with his protege, the late Bill Layton, but looking back, the Democratic tide of South Jersey suburban Philadelphia seemed inevitable. Another Paulsen mentee, Eric Arpert, is running Ciattarelli's campaign. And Ciattarelli strategist Chris Russell also goes way back with him. Paulsen also played a big role in launching the political career of former state senator and Ciattarelli 2021 lieutenant governor running mate Diane Allen, before they became political enemies. But over the last 20 years or so, Paulsen has largely been out of the spotlight while remaining a behind-the-scenes player. He's make the news occasionally, like when his former law firm Capehart & Scatchard was New Jersey's special counsel to the DRPA. In 2019, he joined the firm Malamut and Associates, which the Burlington County Times noted had strong ties to Burlington County Democrats. But that association ended suddenly during a recent controversy over the leadership of Rowan College at Burlington County, when Paulsen said another employee of the firm told him he was done 'without any explanation, any previous negative employment evaluations or any other explanation.' But as likely as Paulsen looks, Ciattarelli isn't expected to make the choice formal until after the primary, and then it will have to be ratified by the the committee members. I'm told there's no bad blood between Ciattarelli and current GOP Chair Bob Hugin, whom Ciattarelli first named chair four years ago. Other names I've heard floated for the role include Cape May GOP Chair Michael Donohue, Middletown Mayor Tony Perry, Monmouth County Clerk Christine Hanlon and Hunterdon GOP Chair Gabe Plumer. Ciattarelli's chief primary rival, Bill Spadea, responded to the news by saying the pick shows Ciattarelli is a 'slave to the Trenton crowd' and calling Paulsen 'an entrenched political insider who has made his entire career off of taxpayer dollars.' 'I didn't think that Jack's newest choice for chair could be worse than his guy who drove NJGOP into the ditch for the last four years, but he's surprised me again.' Spadea is backed by Ocean County GOP Chair George Gilmore, one of the most powerful Republican insiders in New Jersey. I asked his campaign if he would consider Gilmore for GOP state chair if he wins the position, but his campaign manager Tom Bonfonti told me he doesn't have a shortlist right now because 'our only focus is on the voters and winning this primary.' FEEDBACK? Reach me at mfriedman@ WHERE'S MURPHY — No public schedule QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'There's a law against impersonating a religious belief, and that's exactly what you're doing, Ed Grimes! Your Jeep is outside. I took a picture of your license plate. I will now press charges against you.' — Dover Mayor James Dodd, after activist Ed 'Lefty' Grimes allegedly showed up to a council meeting in a burqa to complain about a smoking ordinance. (I'm not familiar with any laws against impersonating religious belief, and I can't imagine one would be constitutional.) HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Kevin Egan, Chris Aikin, Ken Deitz, John Traier, Judy Ward WHAT TRENTON MADE QUICKER ZWICKER — Sponsor confident NJ will clarify House vacancy law before Murphy's term ends, by POLITICO's Matt Friedman: A bill to reduce the amount of time it takes to fill House vacancies, introduced after a painfully slow process to fill the seat of the late Rep. Donald Payne, has yet to advance a year after it was introduced. But after making a series of amendments to it Thursday, and after a brief discussion of it in a Senate committee, its author is confident it will pass by the end of Gov. Phil Murphy's term in January. 'No one has come out against it. I worked closely with the county clerks. I want to make sure the vacancy got filled as quickly as possible,' said state Sen. Andrew Zwicker, a Democrat. The timing is important. Two Democratic House members are running to replace Murphy: Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer. Should one of them win, it will create a vacancy and trigger New Jersey's currently long and cumbersome process to replace them. The bill, NJ S3282 (24R), would cut down the time frame to fill House vacancies in some circumstances, but it could still be a particularly long process, depending on when the vacancy occurs. SURGE PRICING — 'Uber spends millions backing Fulop, Sherrill, Ciattarelli in primary,' by New Jersey Globe's Zach Blackburn: 'Uber is spending millions on primary races this summer in a push to end high insurance costs for rideshare companies in New Jersey. The spending is part of an ongoing push from Uber to end the insurance requirements, including a five-figure digital ad campaign earlier this month … 'The cost of rideshare in New Jersey has become too expensive for many, and that is largely due to state-mandated insurance requirements,' Uber spokesperson Freddi Goldstein said in a statement … Uber's PAC, Fair & Affordable New Jersey, gave $1 million to Workers for a Better New Jersey, a super PAC supporting Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop's campaign for governor. A source close to Uber told the New Jersey Globe the company's PAC sent $500k to Stand Together NJ, a super PAC supporting Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, and another $500k to Kitchen Table Conservatives, a super PAC supporting Republican Jack Ciattarelli.' NURSING A GRUDGE — 'N.J. spends billions on nursing homes. Officials question spending in wake of report,' by NJ Advance Media's Susan K. Livio and Ted Sherman: 'New Jersey spends billions to help fund nursing home care for frail and elderly residents. But state officials are now questioning just how the money is being spent in the wake of a recent series by NJ Advance Media and its sister newsrooms across the country examining the inside financial dealings of the long-term care industry. State Human Services Commissioner Sarah Adelman laid out the stakes in a key budget hearing earlier this month … She pointedly asked whether operators who receive tens of thousands through Medicaid reimbursements for indigent residents should be allowed to profit from those public funds. 'The reality is this is happening' she said, referring to the stories and the findings about the quality and nutrition of food provided in nursing homes, as well as revelations on self-dealing by nursing homes that do business with related companies.' TOO STEAMY — A social media video posted by Steve Fulop on Saturday night chronicled his day on the campaign trail. Set to the tune of Rusted Root's 'Send Me On My Way,' it initially began with G-rated footage of Fulop in the shower at 5:30 a.m., but Fulop deleted it. 'One person said something so I didn't want to deal with a shoulder being exposed,' Fulop told me. You can still see the video, sans shower footage. Fulop is calling it 'Shower Gate.' STREET FIGHT 2 — The race to become New Jersey's next governor is on! This election is crowded, and even less predictable than normal. Let's look at what could happen — pick a Democrat and a Republican to face off, and we'll tell you how it might go. Choose your fighter here — ''Wake-up call': [Wimberly's] car broken into by scooter-riding burglars' — 'Sierra Club endorses Mikie Sherrill for governor' — 'Sweeney pushes healthcare proposal amid Medicaid uncertainty' — JCP&L asks BPU: Should we still be spending hundreds of millions on offshore wind grid? — 'What Makes Jersey Run: What you need to know about N.J.'s hot governor race in easy numbers' — 'Navy pilot. Mom. A different kind of leader: I'm Mikie Sherrill, running for N.J. governor' — 'To fix our state, we need common sense: I'm Jack Ciattarelli, running for N.J. governor' — Sauickie: 'As utility bills bankrupt NJ, Trenton Democrats blame everyone but themselves' TRUMP ERA BOBBING FOR PARDONS — 'Former Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is still pushing for a Trump pardon before reporting to prison,' by NBC's Kate Santaliz, Julie Tsirkin, Garrett Haake and Carol E. Lee: 'President Donald Trump has not ruled out pardoning or commuting the sentence of former Sen. Bob Menendez, though allies believe there is only a small chance that the New Jersey Democrat will receive clemency before he's scheduled to report to prison next month, according to a White House official and three additional people familiar with the discussions. Menendez allies have made multiple overtures to the White House since Trump took office to request either a pardon or a commutation of his 11-year prison sentence following his conviction on bribery and corruption charges, according to four people familiar with the efforts. After one such overture, some of Menendez's allies were convinced Trump will not grant the New Jersey Democrat clemency, people familiar with the efforts said. But a White House official says Trump has not made a decision on the matter.' — @SenatorMenendez: 'People talk about the Trump DOJ, but it was the Democrats who started weaponizing the Justice Dept. When, as the Chairman of the SFRC, I didn't go along with Obama's Iran deal, I was indicted, and the next day after being stripped of my position, Obama announced the Iran deal.' Community note: 'Former Senator Bob Menendez was convicted of federal corruption charges in July of 2024 after it was found that he and his wife accepted nearly $1 million in cash, gold bars and a luxury car as bribes. He was sentenced to 11 years and is due to report to prison on 6/17/25.' — Chris Christie says Trump is giving free rein to white-collar criminals UNWARRENTED — 'Officials in conservative N.J. county are baffled at their inclusion on 'sanctuary jurisdictions' list,' by New Jersey Globe's Joey Fox: 'When the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released a list yesterday of 'sanctuary jurisdictions' that it says violate the law to shield undocumented immigrants … two jurisdictions on the list stick out from the rest: Cumberland and Warren Counties. Both counties voted for Donald Trump last year — Warren County did so by more than 20 percentage points — and both have Republican-controlled boards of county commissioners that are hardly sympathetic to sanctuary cities. An official statement from Warren County's government expressed 'surprise' at the designation, citing the anti-sanctuary state bills the county commissioner board has passed in recent years.' SHOOTING THE POOCH — 'A federal list of immigrant 'sanctuaries' nets Trump allies and foes alike,' by The New York Times' Campbell Robertson, Halina Bennet and Jill Cowan: 'Some of the jurisdictions on the list had indeed designated themselves as sanctuary cities in resolutions or executive orders. Officials in other places argued that the phrase 'sanctuary city' did not technically apply, though they had pledged to protect immigrants. But mixed among them were many counties and cities that openly support efforts to apprehend and deport immigrants, or have even been actively cooperating with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Officials in other places that had voted overwhelmingly for President Trump but were far from the front lines of the immigration debate were simply bewildered.' HOTLINE KING — 'Trump will hold a tele-rally for Ciattarelli on Monday night,' by New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: 'President Donald Trump will host a tele-rally for Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli on Monday evening at 7 PM, the New Jersey Globe has learned. Trump's virtual appearance for Ciattarelli comes eleven hours before the polls open for a week of in-person early voting … The president's endorsement of Ciattarelli, a onetime critic, came on May 12, making the former three-term assemblyman the clear front-runner in the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.' — 'NJ nun tweeted at Trump every day in first term. Why she's changed her tune this time' — Murphy shows up in Smith's district to push back Medicaid cuts LOCAL ROSELLE PARK — 'Is cancer a coincidence? This N.J. town has a 30-year-old toxic waste problem that workers say is killing them,' by NJ Advance Media's Jackie Roman: 'Harry Uhrig's first two years of retirement from the Roselle Park Department of Public Works have been spent shuffling between doctors appointments. The 60-year-old doesn't drink or smoke. He always considered himself relatively healthy, until he was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease in 2022 and kidney failure in January of this year. That's why he wonders if his two decades of working at the borough's public works yard — one of more than 12,000 contaminated sites in New Jersey — had something to do with it … Dirty fill dirt used decades ago and old, leaking underground fuel storage tanks have contaminated the soil and groundwater, state records show. Volatile organic compounds like benzene and toxic heavy metals like arsenic, lead and manganese have been detected, according to remediation documents and a fact sheet from the state Department of Environmental Protection. Despite efforts by the town and the state to remove contaminated soil and conduct regular monitoring, current and former employees — some who've become sick, and the family of one who died of cancer five years ago — say not enough is being done. They claim that more than a half dozen former public works employees have died from different types of cancer between 2017 and 2024.' SUBWAY CRIME — 'Prospect Park councilman facing illegal gambling charges released from jail,' by The Record's Philip DeVencentis: 'The councilman who allegedly helped to orchestrate an underground gambling ring has been released from jail after a judge reconsidered a decision that kept him there for a month and a half. Borough Council President Anand Shah, 42, was allowed to walk out of Morris County Correctional Facility in Morristown on May 30, pending 11 charges of illegal gambling, money laundering and racketeering for his alleged link to the complex scheme. Michael DeMarco, an attorney for Shah, said his client will remain on home confinement, except for professional appointments and to go to work as a Subway franchisee.' FREE PARKING — 'Hoboken mayor accused of parking ticket fixing scheme, he denies any wrongdoing,' by Hudson County View's John Heinis: 'Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla is accused of fixing several of his parking tickets through municipal employees, according to a letter from a former assistant municipal public defender and current assistant Hudson County counsel, and he denies any wrongdoing. '...The mayor 'gets tickets' and hands them to enforcement officers saying, 'take care of this.' I reviewed publicly available records on which revealed ~247 municipal court cases listing Mayor Bhalla as the defendant,' wrote attorney Georgina Giordano Pallitto, who told HCV she was not releasing her client's name due to an ongoing investigation.' R.I.P. — 'Hudson County sheriff's officer dies after falling through window in Jersey City, prosecutor's office says,' by CBS2's Doug Williams and Lori Bordonaro: 'A Hudson County sheriff's officer died Friday after falling through a window at an administrative building in Jersey City. The circumstances Officer Justin Rivera's fall appeared to be accidental, the Hudson County Prosecutor's office said. Rivera, 29, fell from a ninth floor window around 9:30 a.m. Friday at the Hudson County Administration Building on Newark Avenue, the prosecutor's office said. He was taken to Jersey City Medical Center, where he was pronounced dead a short time later.' — 'NJ bill would cut Lacey officials out of future nuclear reactor decisions' — 'Democrats to square off in Wayne primary for chance to challenge mayor' — 'Monroe police officers hailed for bravery, professionalism during mental health crisis' — 'Hundreds support LGBTQ+ community on Ocean City Boardwalk ahead of Pride Month' — '[Jackson] school named for late Challenger teacher-astronaut is closing' EVERYTHING ELSE R.I.P. — 'Former NYPD commissioner Bernard Kerik, a Paterson native, dies at 69,' by The Record's John Connolly: 'Former NYPD commissioner Bernard Kerik, a Paterson native, died at the age of 69 on May 29 'after a private battle with illness,' announced FBI Director Kash Patel. Kerik, a former Passaic County undersheriff, was New York City's top cop in the wake of terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001. He later served time in prison for tax evasion and other charges.' TESLA FOIL — 'Tesla Superchargers to be removed from New Jersey Turnpike,' by NJ Advance Media's Stephanie Loder: 'The New Jersey Turnpike Authority has decided to part ways with Tesla, ordering 64 Supercharges to be removed from the super highway connecting northern and southern New Jersey. The authority has decided to use a sole third-party provider for its electric vehicle charging, which is why it didn't renew a contract to keep Tesla Superchargers on the toll road, Tesla said on social media on Friday. 'We have been preparing for three years for this potential outcome by building 116 stalls off the New Jersey Turnpike, ensuring no interruption for our customers,' the Tesla statement said.' DOES 'GOOD DOG, CARL' WORK FOR THE PORT AUTHORITY POLICE? — 'Cops rescue toddler from luggage conveyor belt at Newark airport,' by NJ Advance Media's Stephanie Loder: 'Port Authority police are credited with rescuing a 2-year-old child last week who climbed onto a luggage conveyor belt headed to an X-ray machine at Newark Liberty International Airport. Port Authority police officers assigned to Terminal A were alerted to the incident involving a child at 6:28 p.m. on Wednesday, an official said. The incident happened while the child's mother was at the JetBlue ticketing counter on the departures level … The child, who was not injured, was located in the checked baggage room on the lower level, the Port Authority said.' — 'Black bear sightings in New Jersey are down in 2025. A breakdown by the numbers' — Doblin: 'In 2025, as chaos and hate swirl, we need Pride now more than ever'
Politico
16-05-2025
- Politics
- Politico
The Republican Trainwreck of the 2026 Election Cycle
Sen. John Cornyn is anathema to many Republican primary voters. Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, may be too tarred by scandal to win a general election. Ten months out, the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as the GOP trainwreck of the 2026 election cycle, a cash-burning demolition derby that threatens to fracture the party, force the White House to intervene and perhaps even put an otherwise safe seat at risk in November. 'I hate to see that kind of internecine warfare in my party,' said Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas). 'It'll be an ugly one.' For Cornyn, a pillar of the GOP establishment who only recently fell just short of being elected the Republican leader in the Senate, it's an awkward position to be in after close to four decades in statewide elected office. He's maintained a consistently conservative voting record and rarely broken with President Donald Trump on issues of substance. He'd be a strong favorite to win a fifth term if he were the GOP nominee. But increasingly, Cornyn's become out of step with primary voters in a state party that is now effectively more Breitbart Republican than Bush Republican. Much of his problem is stylistic — Cornyn looks, talks and acts like a traditional politician; he's one of the few senators for whom it takes little imagination to envision serving in a different era. But his brand of Republicanism is also viewed by many in the party as insufficiently MAGA. Cornyn was booed at the 2022 state GOP convention for working on a bipartisan gun safety deal in the Senate in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre. His skepticism about Trump's electoral prospects — expressed as recently as 2023, when he told reporters, 'I think President Trump's time has passed him by' — hasn't endeared him to the party grassroots. Yet while elements of his voting record are a sore point, Cornyn is by no means a political heretic — no one could ever mistake him for moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), and he invariably has voted with the Trump administration. As one Republican strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, pointed out, 'You're going to replace a guy who votes with Trump all the time for another guy who will vote with Trump all the time.' Paxton, however, has nearly flawless MAGA credentials. He lacks Cornyn's senatorial mien but is a Trump loyalist who played a key role in the president's failed efforts to overturn the 2020 election — even speaking at the Jan. 6, 2021, rally on the Ellipse that preceded the attack on the Capitol. But the dogged devotion to Trump — whose third presidential bid he endorsed in November 2022, at a time when most elected Republicans were skeptical of Trump's political prospects — isn't what truly makes Paxton beloved among the conservative grassroots. Instead, it's that he has the ultimate credential of MAGA authenticity. Like Trump, Paxton has been subject to his own FBI raid and his own impeachment trial. The Texas attorney general has faced multiple investigations by state and federal authorities for misconduct, culminating in his 2023 impeachment by the Republican controlled Texas House of Representatives. After an extended pressure campaign by Trump allies, where Paxton repeatedly likened himself to the then-former president in being persecuted by RINOs and the deep state, the attorney general was acquitted by the state Senate after a trial over allegations that he abused his power, accepted bribes and obstructed justice. The experience left Paxton with diehard support on the hard right of the Texas Republican Party, which has been embroiled in a civil war with more traditional conservatives. Among his backers: GOP Rep. Troy Nehls, the cigar-chomping Trump enthusiast from suburban Houston, who told reporters recently, 'I just don't think that John Cornyn can be trusted.' Paxton's misdeeds, though, have made him loathed by many establishment Republicans — particularly Cornyn, who has gone after his successor as state attorney general in pointed, personal terms. The baggage Paxton brings to the race would make him a far dicier GOP nominee than Cornyn in a midterm election where Democrats are likely to turn out in force. One potential GOP wildcard is Wesley Hunt, a two-term, millennial African American representative from metro Houston with a fondness for three-piece suits. First elected in 2022 as a Trump acolyte after losing a bid two years before as a more traditional Republican, Hunt is considered a political striver even by the thirsty standards of Capitol Hill. He stumped in Iowa for Trump before the 2024 caucuses and, in a sign of even higher ambitions, recently appeared in New Hampshire in support of local Republicans. The argument for Hunt is that he is far more palatable to MAGA diehards than Cornyn but without the toxic miasma of allegations that taint Paxton with general election voters. Hunt has already met with top White House political aides to lay out the case for his candidacy, and an associated super PAC is spending on television ads to build up his name ID. However, in a state as big as Texas, the PAC's television buy is still a drop in the bucket. No sitting House member from Texas has won a major statewide race since Phil Gramm in 1984, and Hunt is still far better known at Mar-a-Lago than in Midland. While Cornyn has consistently trailed Paxton in primary polls, the senator is by no means a dead man walking — he is expected to have a massive financial advantage over his rival. However well-regarded Paxton might be at the moment among primary voters, that may not last after Cornyn carpet bombs the airwaves against him. 'Theoretically, they would know him well, but they don't,' said longtime GOP state political consultant Craig Murphy, who is not working for any candidate in the race. 'They don't know him like they'll know him after' a negative ad blitz on Cornyn's behalf. Jesse Hunt, a former top staffer at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, noted that a free-spending Texas Senate primary could have unwelcome spillover effects on the national Senate map. 'Texas is a very expensive state to run a campaign in, and resources are not unlimited,' he said. 'A lot of the people who may be asked to get involved in that sort of intra-party feud in a state like Texas, could also be asked to help fund efforts to flip Georgia and flip other Democrat held states.' A fractious primary could also put an otherwise safe seat in play on a Senate map that features few pickup opportunities for Democrats. According to a recent poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP-leadership aligned super PAC, both Cornyn and Hunt led former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by single digits in a head-to-head matchup. Paxton, however, trailed Allred, who is mulling a run, by a percentage point. Looming over everything is Trump, and the potentially catalytic effect of his endorsement. The result, as one Texas Republican operative pointed out, is that the race is currently playing out as two parallel campaigns. In Washington, it is a scramble to attract the all-important Trump imprimatur, as well as to get the various powerful GOP-affiliated outside groups to start spending in the race. Paxton has never been considered a formidable fundraiser, and the first FEC reports of both his campaign and super PAC will be heavily scrutinized. Cornyn has recently been zealously positioning himself as a Trump supporter, even posing for a photograph while reading The Art of the Deal. Further heightening the stakes, Paxton has hired Axiom, the firm led by prominent political consultant Jeff Roe, to guide his campaign. Axiom, which has long had Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as a client, is uniquely divisive in the GOP — the company helped steer Glenn Youngkin's successful 2021 gubernatorial campaign in Virginia and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' far less successful 2024 presidential campaign. Its work for DeSantis in particular has made the firm persona non grata in corners of Trump world, even while it remains an institution in Texas Republican politics. Paxton used the firm for his 2022 primary race, where he trounced political dynast George P. Bush, a contest in which Paxton received an enthusiastic endorsement from Trump. Its involvement has added another level of complexity for a race that is being fought as much in Old Town Alexandria — a hub of GOP political and advocacy shops — as in Amarillo, as national consultants try to game out big picture strategy to avoid an expensive fiasco while local activists bicker over Cornyn's voting record and Paxton's rap sheet. However bruising the primary is shaping up to be, with two political heavyweights pounding each other in the run up, there's a real chance the field could completely shift before ballots are printed. There's already ample speculation that Cornyn's name will not appear on the ballot next year and that the septuagenarian incumbent will not risk ending his political career by losing to an opponent he despises. However, Cornyn has brushed it aside — tartly asking one major Texas donor who floated the possibility on Twitter, 'What are you smoking?' If Cornyn bows out, not only does it line things up for Hunt to jump in but potentially other candidates as well in a state where heated multicandidate primaries usually end in runoffs. However, the filing deadline isn't until December, and the primary isn't until March 2026. For now, only one thing is for sure: As of right now, John Cornyn, who has never before faced a competitive Senate primary, appears to be the underdog. Cornyn though has remained unfazed. 'His lead is shrinking already and the battle has just begun!' the senator tweeted Monday, in response to the SLF poll, which showed him trailing Paxton by 16 points. 'He must be getting nervous.'
Yahoo
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Republicans Confront a Senate Primary From Hell
Sen. John Cornyn is anathema to many Republican primary voters. Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, may be too tarred by scandal to win a general election. Ten months out, the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as the GOP trainwreck of the 2026 election cycle, a cash-burning demolition derby that threatens to fracture the party, force the White House to intervene and perhaps even put an otherwise safe seat at risk in November. 'I hate to see that kind of internecine warfare in my party,' said Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas). 'It'll be an ugly one.' For Cornyn, a pillar of the GOP establishment who only recently fell just short of being elected the Republican leader in the Senate, it's an awkward position to be in after close to four decades in statewide elected office. He's maintained a consistently conservative voting record and rarely broken with President Donald Trump on issues of substance. He'd be a strong favorite to win a fifth term if he were the GOP nominee. But increasingly, Cornyn's become out of step with primary voters in a state party that is now effectively more Breitbart Republican than Bush Republican. Much of his problem is stylistic — Cornyn looks, talks and acts like a traditional politician; he's one of the few senators for whom it takes little imagination to envision serving in a different era. But his brand of Republicanism is also viewed by many in the party as insufficiently MAGA. Cornyn was booed at the 2022 state GOP convention for working on a bipartisan gun safety deal in the Senate in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre. His skepticism about Trump's electoral prospects — expressed as recently as 2023, when he told reporters, "I think President Trump's time has passed him by' — hasn't endeared him to the party grassroots. Yet while elements of his voting record are a sore point, Cornyn is by no means a political heretic — no one could ever mistake him for moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), and he invariably has voted with the Trump administration. As one Republican strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, pointed out, 'You're going to replace a guy who votes with Trump all the time for another guy who will vote with Trump all the time.' Paxton, however, has nearly flawless MAGA credentials. He lacks Cornyn's senatorial mien but is a Trump loyalist who played a key role in the president's failed efforts to overturn the 2020 election — even speaking at the Jan. 6 rally on the Ellipse that preceded the attack on the Capitol. But the dogged devotion to Trump — whose third presidential bid he endorsed in November 2022, at a time when most elected Republicans were skeptical of Trump's political prospects — isn't what truly makes Paxton beloved among the conservative grassroots. Instead, it's that he has the ultimate credential of MAGA authenticity. Like Trump, Paxton has been subject to his own FBI raid and his own impeachment trial. The Texas attorney general has faced multiple investigations by state and federal authorities for misconduct, culminating in his 2023 impeachment by the Republican controlled Texas House of Representatives. After an extended pressure campaign by Trump allies, where Paxton repeatedly likened himself to the then-former president in being persecuted by RINOs and the deep state, the attorney general was acquitted by the state Senate after a trial over allegations that he abused his power, accepted bribes and obstructed justice. The experience left Paxton with diehard support on the hard right of the Texas Republican Party, which has been embroiled in a civil war with more traditional conservatives. Among his backers: GOP Rep. Troy Nehls, the cigar-chomping Trump enthusiast from suburban Houston, who told reporters recently, 'I just don't think that John Cornyn can be trusted.' Paxton's misdeeds, though, have made him loathed by many establishment Republicans — particularly Cornyn, who has gone after his successor as state attorney general in pointed, personal terms. The baggage Paxton brings to the race would make him a far dicier GOP nominee than Cornyn in a midterm election where Democrats are likely to turn out in force. One potential GOP wildcard is Wesley Hunt, a two-term, millennial African American congressman from metro Houston with a fondness for three-piece suits. First elected in 2022 as a Trump acolyte after losing a bid two years before as a more traditional Republican, Hunt is considered a political striver even by the thirsty standards of Capitol Hill. He stumped in Iowa for Trump before the 2024 caucuses and, in a sign of even higher ambitions, recently appeared in New Hampshire in support of local Republicans. The argument for Hunt is that he is far more palatable to MAGA diehards than Cornyn but without the toxic miasma of allegations that taint Paxton with general election voters. Hunt has already met with top White House political aides to lay out the case for his candidacy, and an associated super PAC is spending on television ads to build up his name ID. However, in a state as big as Texas, the PAC's television buy is still a drop in the bucket. No sitting House member from Texas has won a major statewide race since Phil Gramm in 1984, and Hunt is still far better known at Mar-a-Lago than in Midland. While Cornyn has consistently trailed Paxton in primary polls, the senator is by no means a dead man walking — he is expected to have a massive financial advantage over his rival. However well-regarded Paxton might be at the moment among primary voters, that may not last after Cornyn carpet bombs the airwaves against him. 'Theoretically, they would know him well, but they don't,' said longtime GOP state political consultant Craig Murphy, who is not working for any candidate in the race. 'They don't know him like they'll know him after' a negative ad blitz on Cornyn's behalf. Jesse Hunt, a former top staffer at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, noted that a free-spending Texas Senate primary could have unwelcome spillover effects on the national Senate map. 'Texas is a very expensive state to run a campaign in, and resources are not unlimited,' he said. 'A lot of the people who may be asked to get involved in that sort of intra-party feud in a state like Texas, could also be asked to help fund efforts to flip Georgia and flip other Democrat held states.' A fractious primary could also put an otherwise safe seat in play on a Senate map that features few pickup opportunities for Democrats. According to a recent poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP-leadership aligned super PAC, both Cornyn and Hunt led former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by single digits in a head-to-head matchup. Paxton, however, trailed Allred, who is mulling a run, by a percentage point. Looming over everything is Trump, and the potentially catalytic effect of his endorsement. The result, as one Texas Republican operative pointed out, is that the race is currently playing out as two parallel campaigns. In Washington, it is a scramble to attract the all-important Trump imprimatur, as well as to get the various powerful GOP-affiliated outside groups to start spending in the race. Paxton has never been considered a formidable fundraiser, and the first FEC reports of both his campaign and super PAC will be heavily scrutinized. Cornyn has recently been zealously positioning himself as a Trump supporter, even posing for a photograph while reading The Art of the Deal. Further heightening the stakes, Paxton has hired Axiom, the firm led by prominent political consultant Jeff Roe, to guide his campaign. Axiom, which has long had Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as a client, is uniquely divisive in the GOP — the company helped steer Glenn Youngkin's successful 2021 gubernatorial campaign in Virginia and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' far less successful 2024 presidential campaign. Its work for DeSantis in particular has made the firm persona non grata in corners of Trump world, even while it remains an institution in Texas Republican politics. Paxton used the firm for his 2022 primary race, where he trounced political dynast George P. Bush, a contest in which Paxton received an enthusiastic endorsement from Trump. Its involvement has added another level of complexity for a race that is being fought as much in Old Town Alexandria — a hub of GOP political and advocacy shops — as in Amarillo, as national consultants try to game out big picture strategy to avoid an expensive fiasco while local activists bicker over Cornyn's voting record and Paxton's rap sheet. However bruising the primary is shaping up to be, with two political heavyweights pounding each other in the run up, there's a real chance the field could completely shift before ballots are printed. There's already ample speculation that Cornyn's name will not appear on the ballot next year and that the septuagenarian incumbent will not risk ending his political career by losing to an opponent he despises. However, Cornyn has brushed it aside — tartly asking one major Texas donor who floated the possibility on Twitter, 'What are you smoking?' If Cornyn bows out, not only does it line things up for Hunt to jump in but potentially other candidates as well in a state where heated multicandidate primaries usually end in runoffs. However, the filing deadline isn't until December, and the primary isn't until March 2026. For now, only one thing is for sure: As of right now, John Cornyn, who has never before faced a competitive Senate primary, appears to be the underdog. Cornyn though has remained unfazed. 'His lead is shrinking already and the battle has just begun!' the senator tweeted Monday, in response to the SLF poll, which showed him trailing Paxton by 16 points. 'He must be getting nervous.'
Politico
14-05-2025
- Politics
- Politico
Republicans Confront a Senate Primary From Hell
Sen. John Cornyn is anathema to many Republican primary voters. Ken Paxton, a state attorney general, may be too tarred by scandal to win a general election. Ten months out, the Texas Senate primary is shaping up as the GOP trainwreck of the 2026 election cycle, a cash-burning demolition derby that threatens to fracture the party, force the White House to intervene and perhaps even put an otherwise safe seat at risk in November. 'I hate to see that kind of internecine warfare in my party,' said Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas). 'It'll be an ugly one.' For Cornyn, a pillar of the GOP establishment who only recently fell just short of being elected the Republican leader in the Senate, it's an awkward position to be in after close to four decades in statewide elected office. He's maintained a consistently conservative voting record and rarely broken with President Donald Trump on issues of substance. He'd be a strong favorite to win a fifth term if he were the GOP nominee. But increasingly, Cornyn's become out of step with primary voters in a state party that is now effectively more Breitbart Republican than Bush Republican. Much of his problem is stylistic — Cornyn looks, talks and acts like a traditional politician; he's one of the few senators for whom it takes little imagination to envision serving in a different era. But his brand of Republicanism is also viewed by many in the party as insufficiently MAGA. Cornyn was booed at the 2022 state GOP convention for working on a bipartisan gun safety deal in the Senate in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre. His skepticism about Trump's electoral prospects — expressed as recently as 2023, when he told reporters, 'I think President Trump's time has passed him by' — hasn't endeared him to the party grassroots. Yet while elements of his voting record are a sore point, Cornyn is by no means a political heretic — no one could ever mistake him for moderate GOP Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), and he invariably has voted with the Trump administration. As one Republican strategist, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, pointed out, 'You're going to replace a guy who votes with Trump all the time for another guy who will vote with Trump all the time.' Paxton, however, has nearly flawless MAGA credentials. He lacks Cornyn's senatorial mien but is a Trump loyalist who played a key role in the president's failed efforts to overturn the 2020 election — even speaking at the Jan. 6 rally on the Ellipse that preceded the attack on the Capitol. But the dogged devotion to Trump — whose third presidential bid he endorsed in November 2022, at a time when most elected Republicans were skeptical of Trump's political prospects — isn't what truly makes Paxton beloved among the conservative grassroots. Instead, it's that he has the ultimate credential of MAGA authenticity. Like Trump, Paxton has been subject to his own FBI raid and his own impeachment trial. The Texas attorney general has faced multiple investigations by state and federal authorities for misconduct, culminating in his 2023 impeachment by the Republican controlled Texas House of Representatives. After an extended pressure campaign by Trump allies, where Paxton repeatedly likened himself to the then-former president in being persecuted by RINOs and the deep state, the attorney general was acquitted by the state Senate after a trial over allegations that he abused his power, accepted bribes and obstructed justice. The experience left Paxton with diehard support on the hard right of the Texas Republican Party, which has been embroiled in a civil war with more traditional conservatives. Among his backers: GOP Rep. Troy Nehls, the cigar-chomping Trump enthusiast from suburban Houston, who told reporters recently, 'I just don't think that John Cornyn can be trusted.' Paxton's misdeeds, though, have made him loathed by many establishment Republicans — particularly Cornyn, who has gone after his successor as state attorney general in pointed, personal terms. The baggage Paxton brings to the race would make him a far dicier GOP nominee than Cornyn in a midterm election where Democrats are likely to turn out in force. One potential GOP wildcard is Wesley Hunt, a two-term, millennial African American congressman from metro Houston with a fondness for three-piece suits. First elected in 2022 as a Trump acolyte after losing a bid two years before as a more traditional Republican, Hunt is considered a political striver even by the thirsty standards of Capitol Hill. He stumped in Iowa for Trump before the 2024 caucuses and, in a sign of even higher ambitions, recently appeared in New Hampshire in support of local Republicans. The argument for Hunt is that he is far more palatable to MAGA diehards than Cornyn but without the toxic miasma of allegations that taint Paxton with general election voters. Hunt has already met with top White House political aides to lay out the case for his candidacy, and an associated super PAC is spending on television ads to build up his name ID. However, in a state as big as Texas, the PAC's television buy is still a drop in the bucket. No sitting House member from Texas has won a major statewide race since Phil Gramm in 1984, and Hunt is still far better known at Mar-a-Lago than in Midland. While Cornyn has consistently trailed Paxton in primary polls, the senator is by no means a dead man walking — he is expected to have a massive financial advantage over his rival. However well-regarded Paxton might be at the moment among primary voters, that may not last after Cornyn carpet bombs the airwaves against him. 'Theoretically, they would know him well, but they don't,' said longtime GOP state political consultant Craig Murphy, who is not working for any candidate in the race. 'They don't know him like they'll know him after' a negative ad blitz on Cornyn's behalf. Jesse Hunt, a former top staffer at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, noted that a free-spending Texas Senate primary could have unwelcome spillover effects on the national Senate map. 'Texas is a very expensive state to run a campaign in, and resources are not unlimited,' he said. 'A lot of the people who may be asked to get involved in that sort of intra-party feud in a state like Texas, could also be asked to help fund efforts to flip Georgia and flip other Democrat held states.' A fractious primary could also put an otherwise safe seat in play on a Senate map that features few pickup opportunities for Democrats. According to a recent poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP-leadership aligned super PAC, both Cornyn and Hunt led former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by single digits in a head-to-head matchup. Paxton, however, trailed Allred, who is mulling a run, by a percentage point. Looming over everything is Trump, and the potentially catalytic effect of his endorsement. The result, as one Texas Republican operative pointed out, is that the race is currently playing out as two parallel campaigns. In Washington, it is a scramble to attract the all-important Trump imprimatur, as well as to get the various powerful GOP-affiliated outside groups to start spending in the race. Paxton has never been considered a formidable fundraiser, and the first FEC reports of both his campaign and super PAC will be heavily scrutinized. Cornyn has recently been zealously positioning himself as a Trump supporter, even posing for a photograph while reading The Art of the Deal. Further heightening the stakes, Paxton has hired Axiom, the firm led by prominent political consultant Jeff Roe, to guide his campaign. Axiom, which has long had Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as a client, is uniquely divisive in the GOP — the company helped steer Glenn Youngkin's successful 2021 gubernatorial campaign in Virginia and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' far less successful 2024 presidential campaign. Its work for DeSantis in particular has made the firm persona non grata in corners of Trump world, even while it remains an institution in Texas Republican politics. Paxton used the firm for his 2022 primary race, where he trounced political dynast George P. Bush, a contest in which Paxton received an enthusiastic endorsement from Trump. Its involvement has added another level of complexity for a race that is being fought as much in Old Town Alexandria — a hub of GOP political and advocacy shops — as in Amarillo, as national consultants try to game out big picture strategy to avoid an expensive fiasco while local activists bicker over Cornyn's voting record and Paxton's rap sheet. However bruising the primary is shaping up to be, with two political heavyweights pounding each other in the run up, there's a real chance the field could completely shift before ballots are printed. There's already ample speculation that Cornyn's name will not appear on the ballot next year and that the septuagenarian incumbent will not risk ending his political career by losing to an opponent he despises. However, Cornyn has brushed it aside — tartly asking one major Texas donor who floated the possibility on Twitter, 'What are you smoking?' If Cornyn bows out, not only does it line things up for Hunt to jump in but potentially other candidates as well in a state where heated multicandidate primaries usually end in runoffs. However, the filing deadline isn't until December, and the primary isn't until March 2026. For now, only one thing is for sure: As of right now, John Cornyn, who has never before faced a competitive Senate primary, appears to be the underdog. Cornyn though has remained unfazed. 'His lead is shrinking already and the battle has just begun!' the senator tweeted Monday, in response to the SLF poll, which showed him trailing Paxton by 16 points. 'He must be getting nervous.'
Business Times
10-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Ex-Federal Reserve's Warsh highlights a path to lower rates, takes a fresh dig at the Fed
[PALO ALTO, California] Kevin Warsh, an apparent frontrunner to be US President Donald Trump's pick to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, on Friday suggested a possible pathway to the lower policy rates that Trump has repeatedly pressed the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell to deliver, and delivered a fresh dig at the Fed's conduct of monetary policy. A large and often growing Fed balance sheet can work at cross-purposes with the Fed's main policy lever of setting short-term borrowing rates, Warsh told a monetary policy panel at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, but 'if the printing press could be quiet, we could have lower policy rates.' Warsh served as Fed Governor from 2006 until 2011, when he quit because he opposed the Fed's continued balance sheet expansion as central bank overreach that encouraged the expansion of the nation's debt. The Fed is currently reducing its balance sheet. On Friday, Warsh offered an added criticism of the Fed, saying there is no 'cruel choice' between the Fed's two objectives of stable prices and full employment, a reference to the idea long prevalent among many central bank policymakers that the cost of bringing down inflation is harm to the job market. 'What it means is, we don't have to push the unemployment rate up to get the inflation rate to fall,' Warsh said on the sidelines of the conference. 'At the Fed, when they talk about how we get inflation down, what they really mean is, how do we get the unemployment rate up ... we need to throw people out of work to get the inflation rate to come down, which is nonsense. But that's embedded in economic thinking, including at the Fed.' The idea that a 'cruel choice' is 'nonsense' is actually largely consistent with how the Fed has conducted policy over the last several years, as it brought inflation down from 40-year highs without pushing the unemployment rate above the rate that most economists feel is consistent with full employment. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Powell has repeatedly said he does not feel the current labour market is a source of inflation, suggesting that crushing the job market would do little to lower inflation. Warsh made his remarks at a conference and an institution steeped in Bush-Reagan Republicanism, now out of favour as Trump and his ideas have come to dominate the party. The conference was convened in part to celebrate John Taylor, a Bush economic adviser and author of one of the most famous monetary policy rules. Condoleezza Rice, Bush's Secretary of State, spoke on Thursday. Warsh himself was a Bush appointee to the Fed but also has close family ties to Trump through his wife - the daughter of Trump's former donor Ronald Lauder. He shared the stage on Friday with Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a Trump appointee who has also been mentioned as a possible candidate for Fed chair. Waller has said he's prepared to lower rates swiftly should tariffs drive a slowdown in the economy and send the unemployment rate upward. Asked what the Fed should do now, if its inflation and employment mandates come into tension, Warsh demurred. 'Well, that's a longer discussion,' he said, heading back into the conference to hear the next speakers. REUTERS
