Latest news with #ResolvePoliticalMonitor
The Age
06-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
Did the polls get this election wrong?
American polling guru Nate Silver calls it the first rule of interpreting survey results: almost all polling errors occur in the opposite direction to commentators' predictions. Silver explained this rule in 2017, when many observers expected French far-right leader Marine Le Pen to do better than polls suggested in her country's presidential election. Instead, it was the centrist Emmanuel Macron who outperformed the polls. This phenomenon struck again in Saturday's federal election. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton repeatedly told reporters that the Coalition's internal research was rosier than public polls as he forecast Coalition victories in seats that weren't on anyone's radar. Some believed him, perhaps persuaded by the Coalition's surprise victory in 2019 and Donald Trump's repeated ability to outperform his poll results. Trump's success has popularised the notion there are 'shy' conservative voters who are not willing to share their political opinions with pollsters. In fact, the Australian polls published were off, but not the way Dutton hoped. They underestimated the scale of Labor's victory. 'Every poll underestimated Labor on two-party preferred and primary votes, and overestimated the Coalition,' says pollster Jim Reed, who runs the Resolve Political Monitor published by this masthead. 'Some polls got it really wrong and others slightly wrong.' Having analysed the performance of all the major pollsters, Reed is satisfied with how Resolve did. The two most accurate polls in two-party-preferred terms, he says, were Resolve and Redbridge, whose results were published in the News Corp tabloids. The final Resolve and Redbridge polls, published last week, showed Labor recording 53 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote and the Coalition 47 per cent. The current count has Labor on 55 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote, with the Coalition on 45 per cent, putting both Resolve and Redbridge within their margin of error.
The Age
05-05-2025
- Business
- The Age
Pollsters' leaked plea to Dutton as campaign faltered: ‘Lighten up, offer tax cuts'
Leaked documents show the Liberals' pollster raised the alarm about the opposition's thin tax policy and told Peter Dutton he had to lighten up as the opposition leader's popularity cratered and his party careened towards a historic loss on Saturday. Focus group studies conducted by pollster Michael Turner and seen by this masthead had been picking up a wave of negative opinions about Dutton, including an observation from one voter that he 'lacks empathy on screen when he talks' and another stating, 'I just don't like the guy, he gives me negative vibes.' As recriminations over the loss escalate and Liberals jockey to be the party's next leader, the leaked documents show voter feedback prompted Turner, of polling firm Freshwater Research, to tell Dutton to ditch his hardened and sometimes wooden exterior. In a document titled 'Project Majura' presented to Dutton and the tightest group of campaign operatives on April 30, just days out from the election, Turner wrote: 'Enjoy the campaign, with a relaxed, sincere tone, using relatable language. 'Convey a more relaxed and enthusiastic presence that signals Dutton is enjoying the campaign and engaging with voters. 'Ensure public engagements are delivered in a way that shows Dutton, and the Liberals, listen to voters, and understand what they are going through right now.' Turner and Freshwater are now under fire for providing the Liberals polling that substantially overestimated the Coalition's primary vote in both public and internal research, giving Dutton a false sense of confidence about his election chances and policy. Several public polls, including this masthead's Resolve Political Monitor, were closer to the mark after voters turned away from the Coalition over its stances on nuclear, its abortive plan to stop public servants working from home, and economic messages that failed to cut through.
Sydney Morning Herald
05-05-2025
- Business
- Sydney Morning Herald
Pollsters' leaked plea to Dutton as campaign faltered: ‘Lighten up, offer tax cuts'
Leaked documents show the Liberals' pollster raised the alarm about the opposition's thin tax policy and told Peter Dutton he had to lighten up as the opposition leader's popularity cratered and his party careened towards a historic loss on Saturday. Focus group studies conducted by pollster Michael Turner and seen by this masthead had been picking up a wave of negative opinions about Dutton, including an observation from one voter that he 'lacks empathy on screen when he talks' and another stating, 'I just don't like the guy, he gives me negative vibes.' As recriminations over the loss escalate and Liberals jockey to be the party's next leader, the leaked documents show voter feedback prompted Turner, of polling firm Freshwater Research, to tell Dutton to ditch his hardened and sometimes wooden exterior. In a document titled 'Project Majura' presented to Dutton and the tightest group of campaign operatives on April 30, just days out from the election, Turner wrote: 'Enjoy the campaign, with a relaxed, sincere tone, using relatable language. 'Convey a more relaxed and enthusiastic presence that signals Dutton is enjoying the campaign and engaging with voters. 'Ensure public engagements are delivered in a way that shows Dutton, and the Liberals, listen to voters, and understand what they are going through right now.' Turner and Freshwater are now under fire for providing the Liberals polling that substantially overestimated the Coalition's primary vote in both public and internal research, giving Dutton a false sense of confidence about his election chances and policy. Several public polls, including this masthead's Resolve Political Monitor, were closer to the mark after voters turned away from the Coalition over its stances on nuclear, its abortive plan to stop public servants working from home, and economic messages that failed to cut through.
The Age
05-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
Rinehart blames ‘left media' for Coalition wipeout, claims voters ‘very short on understanding'
Mining magnate Gina Rinehart is urging politicians to shift further to the right and adopt US President Donald Trump's policies as she blames voters and the 'left media' for the Coalition's disastrous election result. Rinehart, whom defeated opposition leader Peter Dutton has previously called a 'dear friend', published a lengthy statement on Monday lamenting that Australians were 'very short on understanding' of the need to revitalise the economy with sweeping changes to drive investment. 'Trump-style 'make Australia great' policies via cutting government tape, government bureaucracy and wastage, and hence being able to cut taxes, [are] too scarce in Australia this year to rate a mention,' Rinehart said in a statement to the Daily Mail. 'No doubt the left media will now try to claim that the Liberal loss was because the Liberal Party followed Trump and became too right! Loading 'The two simply don't add up!' Rinehart's call for the Liberal Party to shift to the right clashes with pleas from moderates for their colleagues to move the party towards the centre and to recruit more women via quotas, setting up a fight for the future of the Liberals' policy direction. But Rinehart blamed the media for the Liberals' election result. 'The left media did a very successful effort, frightening many in the Liberal Party from anything Trump, and away from any Trump-like policies,' she said. Rinehart is a major Coalition donor who has attended events with Trump. She has also run newspaper ads praising the president's return to office. This masthead's Resolve Political Monitor showed before the election that Trump was deeply unpopular with Australian voters.
The Age
05-05-2025
- Politics
- The Age
Voters, ‘left media' to blame for Coalition wipeout: Rinehart
Mining magnate Gina Rinehart is urging politicians to shift further to the right and adopt US President Donald Trump's polices as she blames voters and the 'left media' for the Coalition's disastrous election result. Rinehart, who defeated Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has previously called a 'dear friend', released a lengthy statement on Monday lamenting that Australians were 'very short on understanding' of the need to revitalise the economy with sweeping changes to drive investment. 'Trump style 'make Australia great' policies via cutting government tape, government bureaucracy and wastage, and hence being able to cut taxes, [are] too scarce in Australia this year to rate a mention,' Rinehart said in a statement to the Daily Mail. 'No doubt the left media will now try to claim that the Liberal loss was because the Liberal Party followed Trump and became too right! Loading 'The two simply don't add up! Rinehart's call for the Liberal Party to shift to the right clashes with pleas from moderates for their colleagues to move the party toward the centre and recruit more women via quotas, setting up a fight for the future of the Liberals' policy direction. But Rinehart blamed the media for the Liberals' election result. 'The left media did a very successful effort, frightening many in the Liberal Party from anything Trump, and away from any Trump like policies,' she said. Rinehart is a major Coalition donor who has attended events with Trump and run newspaper ads praising the president's return to office. This masthead's Resolve Political Monitor showed before the election that Trump was deeply unpopular with Australian voters.
