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How Will Eli Lilly's Oncology Drugs Perform in Q2 Earnings?

Eli Lilly LLY offers a diverse range of products that serve multiple therapeutic areas. While the company's primary focus is on diabetes and obesity drugs, the oncology franchise also remains a key contributor to the top line. Sales from the oncology segment accounted for over 15% of Lilly's first-quarter revenues, which grew more than 11% year over year. Our model estimates second-quarter 2025 sales for the overall oncology unit to be $2.4 billion, indicating more than 11% year-over-year growth. A significant portion of these revenues is likely to have been generated from sales of the company's blockbuster breast cancer drug, Verzenio. Sales of this drug are expected to have been driven by increased demand and higher realized prices during the quarter, partially offset by currency headwinds and competitive dynamics. Sales of RET inhibitor Retevmo and newer lymphoma drug Jaypirca are also likely to have contributed positively to top-line growth during the quarter. However, these gains might have been partially offset by the declining sales of older cancer drugs like Alimta and Cyramza, which are being impacted by competition from immuno-oncology agents in the United States. Though Lilly's oncology portfolio is contributing meaningfully, investor focus will largely remain on blockbuster GLP-1 medicines — Mounjaro (for type II diabetes) and Zepbound (for obesity). Investors will closely track their sequential growth and market share trends in the upcoming second-quarter results on Aug. 7. Competition in the Oncology Space Other bigger players in this area are AstraZeneca AZN, Merck MRK and Pfizer PFE. For AstraZeneca, oncology sales now account for nearly 41% of total revenues. Growth in AZN's oncology franchise is being driven by medicines such as Tagrisso, Lynparza, Imfinzi, Calquence and Enhertu (in partnership with Daiichi Sankyo). Merck's key oncology medicines are PD-1 inhibitor, Keytruda and PARP inhibitor, Lynparza, which it markets in partnership with AstraZeneca. Keytruda, approved for several types of cancer, alone accounts for nearly half of Merck's product revenues. Pfizer's oncology segment — comprising drugs like Xtandi, Lorbrena, the Braftovi-Mektovi combination and Padcev — currently accounts for more than 27% of its total revenues. LLY's Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates Shares of Lilly have outperformed the industry year to date, as seen in the chart below. From a valuation standpoint, Eli Lilly is expensive. Based on the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, the company's shares currently trade at 29.66 times forward earnings, higher than its industry's average of 14.91. However, the stock is trading below its five-year mean of 34.54. EPS estimates for 2025 have risen from $21.92 to $21.99, while those for 2026 have declined from $30.91 to $30.79 over the past 30 days. Eli Lilly currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops." Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.5% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. See them now >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report AstraZeneca PLC (AZN): Free Stock Analysis Report Pfizer Inc. (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Free Stock Analysis Report Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): Free Stock Analysis Report