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Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day-London calling, stocks crawling higher
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Trade tensions, policy uncertainty and shaky economic data continue to cloud the near-term outlook for world growth, but they remain on the back burner for now as investors kick off the week by pushing global stock markets higher. In my column today I look at why the dollar has depreciated significantly this year regardless of how U.S. stocks and bonds have performed. The main reason? Hedging. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Defying debt warnings, Republicans push forward on Trumptax agenda 2. 'Blue' euro bonds to rival Treasuries?: Mike Dolan 3. Japan to consider buying back some super-long governmentbonds, sources say 4. Wall Street, Main Street push for foreign tax rethink inU.S. budget bill 5. Auto companies 'in full panic' over rare-earthsbottleneck Today's Key Market Moves * World stocks set a new record high. The MSCI World indexrises 0.3% to 895.60 points. * Wall Street closes in the green despite a flurry of lateselling, and the S&P 500 nudges further above 6000 points. TheRussell 2000 small caps index rises most, up 0.6%. * The dollar index slips 0.25%. But the biggest declinerin global FX on Monday is the Colombian peso, down 0.7% afterthe assassination attempt on Senator Miguel Uribe, a potentialpresidential contender. * The U.S. yield curve bull steepens, snapping four sessionsof flattening, with the 2- and 3-year yields down 4 bps. Nextup, a $58 billion auction of 3-year notes on Tuesday. * Oil rises for a third day, with Brent crude climbing 1%above $67/bbl, its highest level since late April. London calling, stocks crawling higher It was a fairly quiet start to the week across global markets on Monday, with strong equity gains in Asia followed by a grind higher on Wall Street which lifted the MSCI World index to a fresh record high. The main areas of focus for investors were China's economic 'data dump' for May, then the high-level U.S.-China trade talks in London. The two are connected - the U.S. is a less important market for China than it used to be, underscored in May's trade figures from Beijing and reflected in the lack of concrete progress from the negotiations in London. China's total exports rose 4.8% in May from a year earlier but this masks a huge split between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Exports to the U.S. plunged 34.4% year-on-year in value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020 just before the pandemic, while exports to the rest of the world rose 11.4%. Monthly data are volatile, of course, and May's figures were also distorted by tariffs. Still, U.S.-bound shipments worth $28.8 billion last month were just 9% of the total $316 billion. Economist Phil Suttle notes that is less than half the average share in the decade leading up to President Donald Trump's first trade war. The London talks are expected to continue on Tuesday. But as was the case following Trump's telephone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, there is little indication of a significant breakthrough, far less China bending to U.S. demands. "U.S. Treasury Secretaries who live in unbalanced economies might not want to throw barbs such as the 'most unbalanced in modern history' at China without first looking at some data," Suttle wrote on Monday. "The choice to fight an opponent should be conditioned on a clear-headed view of its strengths and weaknesses. The U.S. has done a marvelous job of (once again) deluding itself on this front," Suttle added. Still, divisions between the two countries and the threat to global supply chains are proving no barrier to rising stock markets. Japan's Nikkei and the MSCI emerging and Asia ex-Japan indexes rose around 1%, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks rose nearly 3%, and Wall Street closed in the green. Meanwhile, the dollar's trend this year of declining despite U.S. stocks and bonds rising was on full display on Monday. Wall Street closed slightly higher and Treasury yields fell as much as 5 basis points at the short end of the curve, yet the dollar slipped. Many analysts say one of the main reasons for this is non-U.S. investor hedging - more on that below. Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge All three major U.S. asset classes – stocks, bonds and the currency – have had a turbulent 2025 thus far, but only one has failed to weather the storm: the dollar. Hedging may be a major reason why. Wall Street's three main indices and the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury index are all slightly higher for the year to date, despite the post-'Liberation Day' volatility, while the dollar has steadily ground lower, losing around 10% of its value against a basket of major currencies and breaking long-standing correlations along the way. The dollar was perhaps primed for a fall. It's easy to forget, but only a few months ago the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative was alive and well, and the dollar scaling heights rarely seen in the past two decades. But that narrative has evaporated, as U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial economic policies and isolationist posture on the global stage have made investors reconsider their exposure to U.S. assets. But why is the dollar feeling the burn more than stocks or bonds? PENSION FUND-AMENTALS Non-U.S. investors often protect themselves against sharp currency fluctuations via the forward, futures or options markets. The difference now is that the risk premium being built into U.S. assets is pushing them – especially equity holders – to hedge their dollar exposure more than they have in the past. Foreign investors have long hedged their bond exposure, with dollar hedge ratios traditionally around 70% to 100%, according to Morgan Stanley, as currency moves can easily wipe out modest bond returns. But non-U.S. equity investors have been much more loath to pay for protection, with dollar hedge ratios averaging between 10% and 30%. This is partly because the dollar was traditionally seen as a 'natural' hedge against stock market exposure, as it would typically rise in 'risk off' periods when stocks fell. The dollar would also normally appreciate when the U.S. economy and markets were thriving – the so-called 'Dollar Smile' – giving an additional boost to U.S. equity returns in good times. A good barometer of global 'real money' investors' view on the dollar is how willing foreign pension and insurance funds are to hedge their dollar-denominated assets. Recent data on Danish funds' currency hedging is revealing. Danish funds' U.S. asset hedge ratio surged to around 75% from around 65% between February and April. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, that 10 percentage point rise is the largest two-month increase in over a decade. Anecdotal evidence suggests similar shifts are taking place across Scandinavia, the euro zone and Canada, regions where dollar exposure is also high. The $266 billion Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan reported a $6.9 billion foreign currency gain last year, mainly due to the stronger dollar. Unless the fund has increased its hedging ratio this year, it will be sitting on huge foreign currency losses. "Investors had embraced U.S. exceptionalism and were overweight U.S. assets. But now, investors are increasing their hedging," says Sophia Drossos, economist and strategist at the hedge fund Point72. And there is a lot of dollar exposure to hedge. At the end of March foreign investors held $33 trillion of U.S. securities, with $18.4 trillion in equities and $14.6 trillion in debt instruments. RIDING OUT THE STORM The dollar's malaise has upended its traditional relationships with stocks and bonds. Its generally negative correlation with stocks has reversed, as has the usually positive correlation with bonds. The divergence with Treasuries has gained more attention, with the dollar diving as yields have risen. But as Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos notes, the correlation breakdown with stocks is "very unusual". When Wall Street has fallen this year the dollar has fallen too, but at a much faster pace. And when Wall Street has risen the dollar has also bounced, but only slightly. This has led to the strongest positive correlation between the dollar and S&P 500 in years, though that's a bit deceptive, as the dollar is sharply down on the year while stocks are mildly stronger. Of course, what we could be seeing is simply a rebalancing. Saravelos estimates that global fixed income and equity managers' dollar exposure was at near record-high levels in the run-up to the recent trade war. This was a "cyclical" phenomenon over the last couple of years rather than a deep-rooted structural one based on fundamentals, meaning it could be reversed relatively quickly. But, regardless, the dollar's hedging headwind seems likely to persist. "Given the size of foreign holdings of both stocks and bonds, even a modest uptick in hedge ratios could prove a considerable FX flow," Morgan Stanley's FX strategy team wrote last month. "As long as uncertainty and volatility persist, we think that hedge ratios are likely to rise as investors ride out the storm." What could move markets tomorrow? * South Korea current account (April) * UK BRC retail sales (May) * UK employment (April) * Brazil inflation (May) * U.S. 3-year Treasury note auction Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
9 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Trading Day-London calling, stocks crawling higher
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Trade tensions, policy uncertainty and shaky economic data continue to cloud the near-term outlook for world growth, but they remain on the back burner for now as investors kick off the week by pushing global stock markets higher. In my column today I look at why the dollar has depreciated significantly this year regardless of how U.S. stocks and bonds have performed. The main reason? Hedging. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Defying debt warnings, Republicans push forward on Trumptax agenda 2. 'Blue' euro bonds to rival Treasuries?: Mike Dolan 3. Japan to consider buying back some super-long governmentbonds, sources say 4. Wall Street, Main Street push for foreign tax rethink inU.S. budget bill 5. Auto companies 'in full panic' over rare-earthsbottleneck Today's Key Market Moves * World stocks set a new record high. The MSCI World indexrises 0.3% to 895.60 points. * Wall Street closes in the green despite a flurry of lateselling, and the S&P 500 nudges further above 6000 points. TheRussell 2000 small caps index rises most, up 0.6%. * The dollar index slips 0.25%. But the biggest declinerin global FX on Monday is the Colombian peso, down 0.7% afterthe assassination attempt on Senator Miguel Uribe, a potentialpresidential contender. * The U.S. yield curve bull steepens, snapping four sessionsof flattening, with the 2- and 3-year yields down 4 bps. Nextup, a $58 billion auction of 3-year notes on Tuesday. * Oil rises for a third day, with Brent crude climbing 1%above $67/bbl, its highest level since late April. London calling, stocks crawling higher It was a fairly quiet start to the week across global markets on Monday, with strong equity gains in Asia followed by a grind higher on Wall Street which lifted the MSCI World index to a fresh record high. The main areas of focus for investors were China's economic 'data dump' for May, then the high-level U.S.-China trade talks in London. The two are connected - the U.S. is a less important market for China than it used to be, underscored in May's trade figures from Beijing and reflected in the lack of concrete progress from the negotiations in London. China's total exports rose 4.8% in May from a year earlier but this masks a huge split between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Exports to the U.S. plunged 34.4% year-on-year in value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020 just before the pandemic, while exports to the rest of the world rose 11.4%. Monthly data are volatile, of course, and May's figures were also distorted by tariffs. Still, U.S.-bound shipments worth $28.8 billion last month were just 9% of the total $316 billion. Economist Phil Suttle notes that is less than half the average share in the decade leading up to President Donald Trump's first trade war. The London talks are expected to continue on Tuesday. But as was the case following Trump's telephone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, there is little indication of a significant breakthrough, far less China bending to U.S. demands. "U.S. Treasury Secretaries who live in unbalanced economies might not want to throw barbs such as the 'most unbalanced in modern history' at China without first looking at some data," Suttle wrote on Monday. "The choice to fight an opponent should be conditioned on a clear-headed view of its strengths and weaknesses. The U.S. has done a marvelous job of (once again) deluding itself on this front," Suttle added. Still, divisions between the two countries and the threat to global supply chains are proving no barrier to rising stock markets. Japan's Nikkei and the MSCI emerging and Asia ex-Japan indexes rose around 1%, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks rose nearly 3%, and Wall Street closed in the green. Meanwhile, the dollar's trend this year of declining despite U.S. stocks and bonds rising was on full display on Monday. Wall Street closed slightly higher and Treasury yields fell as much as 5 basis points at the short end of the curve, yet the dollar slipped. Many analysts say one of the main reasons for this is non-U.S. investor hedging - more on that below. Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge All three major U.S. asset classes – stocks, bonds and the currency – have had a turbulent 2025 thus far, but only one has failed to weather the storm: the dollar. Hedging may be a major reason why. Wall Street's three main indices and the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury index are all slightly higher for the year to date, despite the post-'Liberation Day' volatility, while the dollar has steadily ground lower, losing around 10% of its value against a basket of major currencies and breaking long-standing correlations along the way. The dollar was perhaps primed for a fall. It's easy to forget, but only a few months ago the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative was alive and well, and the dollar scaling heights rarely seen in the past two decades. But that narrative has evaporated, as U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial economic policies and isolationist posture on the global stage have made investors reconsider their exposure to U.S. assets. But why is the dollar feeling the burn more than stocks or bonds? PENSION FUND-AMENTALS Non-U.S. investors often protect themselves against sharp currency fluctuations via the forward, futures or options markets. The difference now is that the risk premium being built into U.S. assets is pushing them – especially equity holders – to hedge their dollar exposure more than they have in the past. Foreign investors have long hedged their bond exposure, with dollar hedge ratios traditionally around 70% to 100%, according to Morgan Stanley, as currency moves can easily wipe out modest bond returns. But non-U.S. equity investors have been much more loath to pay for protection, with dollar hedge ratios averaging between 10% and 30%. This is partly because the dollar was traditionally seen as a 'natural' hedge against stock market exposure, as it would typically rise in 'risk off' periods when stocks fell. The dollar would also normally appreciate when the U.S. economy and markets were thriving – the so-called 'Dollar Smile' – giving an additional boost to U.S. equity returns in good times. A good barometer of global 'real money' investors' view on the dollar is how willing foreign pension and insurance funds are to hedge their dollar-denominated assets. Recent data on Danish funds' currency hedging is revealing. Danish funds' U.S. asset hedge ratio surged to around 75% from around 65% between February and April. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, that 10 percentage point rise is the largest two-month increase in over a decade. Anecdotal evidence suggests similar shifts are taking place across Scandinavia, the euro zone and Canada, regions where dollar exposure is also high. The $266 billion Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan reported a $6.9 billion foreign currency gain last year, mainly due to the stronger dollar. Unless the fund has increased its hedging ratio this year, it will be sitting on huge foreign currency losses. "Investors had embraced U.S. exceptionalism and were overweight U.S. assets. But now, investors are increasing their hedging," says Sophia Drossos, economist and strategist at the hedge fund Point72. And there is a lot of dollar exposure to hedge. At the end of March foreign investors held $33 trillion of U.S. securities, with $18.4 trillion in equities and $14.6 trillion in debt instruments. RIDING OUT THE STORM The dollar's malaise has upended its traditional relationships with stocks and bonds. Its generally negative correlation with stocks has reversed, as has the usually positive correlation with bonds. The divergence with Treasuries has gained more attention, with the dollar diving as yields have risen. But as Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos notes, the correlation breakdown with stocks is "very unusual". When Wall Street has fallen this year the dollar has fallen too, but at a much faster pace. And when Wall Street has risen the dollar has also bounced, but only slightly. This has led to the strongest positive correlation between the dollar and S&P 500 in years, though that's a bit deceptive, as the dollar is sharply down on the year while stocks are mildly stronger. Of course, what we could be seeing is simply a rebalancing. Saravelos estimates that global fixed income and equity managers' dollar exposure was at near record-high levels in the run-up to the recent trade war. This was a "cyclical" phenomenon over the last couple of years rather than a deep-rooted structural one based on fundamentals, meaning it could be reversed relatively quickly. But, regardless, the dollar's hedging headwind seems likely to persist. "Given the size of foreign holdings of both stocks and bonds, even a modest uptick in hedge ratios could prove a considerable FX flow," Morgan Stanley's FX strategy team wrote last month. "As long as uncertainty and volatility persist, we think that hedge ratios are likely to rise as investors ride out the storm." What could move markets tomorrow? * South Korea current account (April) * UK BRC retail sales (May) * UK employment (April) * Brazil inflation (May) * U.S. 3-year Treasury note auction Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
Mint
9 hours ago
- Business
- Mint
London calling, stocks crawling higher
ORLANDO, Florida, June 9 (Reuters) - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Trade tensions, policy uncertainty and shaky economic data continue to cloud the near-term outlook for world growth, but they remain on the back burner for now as investors kick off the week by pushing global stock markets higher. In my column today I look at why the dollar has depreciated significantly this year regardless of how U.S. stocks and bonds have performed. The main reason? Hedging. More on that below, but first, a roundup of the main market moves. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Defying debt warnings, Republicans push forward on Trump tax agenda 2. 'Blue' euro bonds to rival Treasuries?: Mike Dolan 3. Japan to consider buying back some super-long government bonds, sources say 4. Wall Street, Main Street push for foreign tax rethink in U.S. budget bill 5. Auto companies 'in full panic' over rare-earths bottleneck * World stocks set a new record high. The MSCI World index rises 0.3% to 895.60 points. * Wall Street closes in the green despite a flurry of late selling, and the S&P 500 nudges further above 6000 points. The Russell 2000 small caps index rises most, up 0.6%. * The dollar index slips 0.25%. But the biggest decliner in global FX on Monday is the Colombian peso, down 0.7% after the assassination attempt on Senator Miguel Uribe, a potential presidential contender. * The U.S. yield curve bull steepens, snapping four sessions of flattening, with the 2- and 3-year yields down 4 bps. Next up, a $58 billion auction of 3-year notes on Tuesday. * Oil rises for a third day, with Brent crude climbing 1% above $67/bbl, its highest level since late April. London calling, stocks crawling higher It was a fairly quiet start to the week across global markets on Monday, with strong equity gains in Asia followed by a grind higher on Wall Street which lifted the MSCI World index to a fresh record high. The main areas of focus for investors were China's economic 'data dump' for May, then the high-level U.S.-China trade talks in London. The two are connected - the U.S. is a less important market for China than it used to be, underscored in May's trade figures from Beijing and reflected in the lack of concrete progress from the negotiations in London. China's total exports rose 4.8% in May from a year earlier but this masks a huge split between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Exports to the U.S. plunged 34.4% year-on-year in value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020 just before the pandemic, while exports to the rest of the world rose 11.4%. Monthly data are volatile, of course, and May's figures were also distorted by tariffs. Still, U.S.-bound shipments worth $28.8 billion last month were just 9% of the total $316 billion. Economist Phil Suttle notes that is less than half the average share in the decade leading up to President Donald Trump's first trade war. The London talks are expected to continue on Tuesday. But as was the case following Trump's telephone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday, there is little indication of a significant breakthrough, far less China bending to U.S. demands. "U.S. Treasury Secretaries who live in unbalanced economies might not want to throw barbs such as the 'most unbalanced in modern history' at China without first looking at some data," Suttle wrote on Monday. "The choice to fight an opponent should be conditioned on a clear-headed view of its strengths and weaknesses. The U.S. has done a marvelous job of (once again) deluding itself on this front," Suttle added. Still, divisions between the two countries and the threat to global supply chains are proving no barrier to rising stock markets. Japan's Nikkei and the MSCI emerging and Asia ex-Japan indexes rose around 1%, Hong Kong-listed tech stocks rose nearly 3%, and Wall Street closed in the green. Meanwhile, the dollar's trend this year of declining despite U.S. stocks and bonds rising was on full display on Monday. Wall Street closed slightly higher and Treasury yields fell as much as 5 basis points at the short end of the curve, yet the dollar slipped. Many analysts say one of the main reasons for this is non-U.S. investor hedging - more on that below. Dollar floored as investors seek that extra hedge All three major U.S. asset classes – stocks, bonds and the currency – have had a turbulent 2025 thus far, but only one has failed to weather the storm: the dollar. Hedging may be a major reason why. Wall Street's three main indices and the ICE BofA U.S. Treasury index are all slightly higher for the year to date, despite the post-'Liberation Day' volatility, while the dollar has steadily ground lower, losing around 10% of its value against a basket of major currencies and breaking long-standing correlations along the way. The dollar was perhaps primed for a fall. It's easy to forget, but only a few months ago the 'U.S. exceptionalism' narrative was alive and well, and the dollar scaling heights rarely seen in the past two decades. But that narrative has evaporated, as U.S. President Donald Trump's controversial economic policies and isolationist posture on the global stage have made investors reconsider their exposure to U.S. assets. But why is the dollar feeling the burn more than stocks or bonds? Non-U.S. investors often protect themselves against sharp currency fluctuations via the forward, futures or options markets. The difference now is that the risk premium being built into U.S. assets is pushing them – especially equity holders – to hedge their dollar exposure more than they have in the past. Foreign investors have long hedged their bond exposure, with dollar hedge ratios traditionally around 70% to 100%, according to Morgan Stanley, as currency moves can easily wipe out modest bond returns. But non-U.S. equity investors have been much more loath to pay for protection, with dollar hedge ratios averaging between 10% and 30%. This is partly because the dollar was traditionally seen as a 'natural' hedge against stock market exposure, as it would typically rise in 'risk off' periods when stocks fell. The dollar would also normally appreciate when the U.S. economy and markets were thriving – the so-called 'Dollar Smile' – giving an additional boost to U.S. equity returns in good times. A good barometer of global 'real money' investors' view on the dollar is how willing foreign pension and insurance funds are to hedge their dollar-denominated assets. Recent data on Danish funds' currency hedging is revealing. Danish funds' U.S. asset hedge ratio surged to around 75% from around 65% between February and April. According to Deutsche Bank analysts, that 10 percentage point rise is the largest two-month increase in over a decade. Anecdotal evidence suggests similar shifts are taking place across Scandinavia, the euro zone and Canada, regions where dollar exposure is also high. The $266 billion Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan reported a $6.9 billion foreign currency gain last year, mainly due to the stronger dollar. Unless the fund has increased its hedging ratio this year, it will be sitting on huge foreign currency losses. "Investors had embraced U.S. exceptionalism and were overweight U.S. assets. But now, investors are increasing their hedging," says Sophia Drossos, economist and strategist at the hedge fund Point72. And there is a lot of dollar exposure to hedge. At the end of March foreign investors held $33 trillion of U.S. securities, with $18.4 trillion in equities and $14.6 trillion in debt instruments. The dollar's malaise has upended its traditional relationships with stocks and bonds. Its generally negative correlation with stocks has reversed, as has the usually positive correlation with bonds. The divergence with Treasuries has gained more attention, with the dollar diving as yields have risen. But as Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos notes, the correlation breakdown with stocks is "very unusual". When Wall Street has fallen this year the dollar has fallen too, but at a much faster pace. And when Wall Street has risen the dollar has also bounced, but only slightly. This has led to the strongest positive correlation between the dollar and S&P 500 in years, though that's a bit deceptive, as the dollar is sharply down on the year while stocks are mildly stronger. Of course, what we could be seeing is simply a rebalancing. Saravelos estimates that global fixed income and equity managers' dollar exposure was at near record-high levels in the run-up to the recent trade war. This was a "cyclical" phenomenon over the last couple of years rather than a deep-rooted structural one based on fundamentals, meaning it could be reversed relatively quickly. But, regardless, the dollar's hedging headwind seems likely to persist. "Given the size of foreign holdings of both stocks and bonds, even a modest uptick in hedge ratios could prove a considerable FX flow," Morgan Stanley's FX strategy team wrote last month. "As long as uncertainty and volatility persist, we think that hedge ratios are likely to rise as investors ride out the storm." What could move markets tomorrow? * South Korea current account (April) * UK BRC retail sales (May) * U.S. 3-year Treasury note auction Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
Yahoo
18 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Morning Bid: London showdown
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Soothed by another resilient U.S. employment report and optimism about trade deal breakthroughs, stocks are continuing to nudge higher as all eyes turn to U.S.-China bilateral trade talks in London on Monday. I'll discuss this and the rest of today's market news below. In today's column, I explore a plan for jointly issued euro zone debt that could be a game-changer. Today's Market Minute * Three of President Donald Trump's top aides will meet with their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday for talks aimed at resolving a trade dispute between the world's two largest economies that has kept global markets on edge. * California National Guard troops were deployed to the streets of Los Angeles on Sunday to help quell a third day of protests over President Trump's immigration enforcement, a step the state's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, called unlawful. * Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan said on Monday. * Trump's move to double tariffs on aluminum imports increases the risk of a full-blown scrap war with the European Union, Reuters Open Interest metals columnist Andy Home says. * Europe's ambition to develop cheap, clean energy has recently received a harsh reality check, Reuters Open Interest energy columnist Ron Bousso argues, as power failures and a string of cancelled renewables projects make clear that the road to inexpensive power will carry a very high price tag. London showdown A top-level U.S. delegation including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is in the UK to meet with Chinese representatives for trade talks. China's vice premier He Lifeng is also in the UK. The meeting follows a 90-minute phone call between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping last week to restart the stalled process. Tensions between the countries remain high, but on a positive note, there was some relief on Friday from news that Beijing had granted temporary export licenses to suppliers of rare earth minerals to the top three U.S. automakers: Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Meanwhile, trade pressures on China's stuttering economy were all too evident in the latest sweep of May export and inflation numbers released on Monday. China's exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5% year-on-year in May, the sharpest drop since February 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic upended global trade. The decline in imports from America also deepened to an annual drop of 18%. By contrast, Wall Street stocks were buoyed by the April U.S. payrolls report released on Friday, with the S&P500 gaining more than 1% by the close to reach its highest point since February. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are now back in positive territory for the year. Nonfarm jobs increased by 139,000 jobs last month, slightly above consensus forecasts, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. While downward revisions to the two prior months' figures are a cause for some concern, the sweep of the report showed few major cracks. Treasury yields rose after the report, with 30-year yields back within a few basis points of 5% again on Monday ahead of the week's big long bond auction and the May U.S. consumer price inflation data release on Wednesday. Despite President Trump's call for a full percentage point cut in Federal Reserve interest rates on Friday and his statement about naming Fed Chair Jerome Powell's successor soon, Fed easing expectations remain subdued. Futures now only price about a 70% chance of a move by September and expect only 46 bps of cuts by yearend. Outside of the U.S., the Japanese yen firmed to 144.43 per dollar as Japan's economy contracted at a slower-than-expected pace in the January-March period. Japan's government is considering buying back some super-long bonds it issued at low interest rates, according to Reuters sources. The move would come on top of an expected government plan to trim issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of sharp rises in yields. Be sure to check out today's column, which looks at a novel proposal for expanding the size and liquidity of jointly issued euro sovereign bonds. This possible plan comes at a critical juncture when global investors are looking for possible alternatives to the dominant U.S. Treasury market. Chart of the day China's export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as U.S. tariffs slammed shipments, while factory-gate deflation deepened to its worst level in two years, heaping pressure on the world's second-largest economy on both the domestic and external fronts. While the trade story has hogged the spotlight this year, the deflation picture has been brewing for several years, partly because the country's property bust has depressed domestic demand. Today's events to watch * New York Federal Reserve's May survey of consumer expectations, U.S. May employment trends (10:00 AM EDT); Mexico May inflation (8:00 AM EDT) * U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meet Chinese trade delegation, including China's vice premier He Lifeng, in London * Argentina's President Javier Milei meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in France Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan; Editing by Anna Szymanski) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
19 hours ago
- Business
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Morning Bid: London showdown
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today I'm excited to announce that I'm now part of Reuters Open Interest (ROI), an essential new source for data-driven, expert commentary on market and economic trends. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn and X. Soothed by another resilient U.S. employment report and optimism about trade deal breakthroughs, stocks are continuing to nudge higher as all eyes turn to U.S.-China bilateral trade talks in London on Monday. I'll discuss this and the rest of today's market news below. In today's column, I explore a plan for jointly issued euro zone debt that could be a game-changer. Today's Market Minute * Three of President Donald Trump's top aides will meet with their Chinese counterparts in London on Monday for talks aimed at resolving a trade dispute between the world's two largest economies that has kept global markets on edge. * California National Guard troops were deployed to the streets of Los Angeles on Sunday to help quell a third day of protests over President Trump's immigration enforcement, a step the state's Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, called unlawful. * Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan said on Monday. * Trump's move to double tariffs on aluminum imports increases the risk of a full-blown scrap war with the European Union, Reuters Open Interest metals columnist Andy Home says. * Europe's ambition to develop cheap, clean energy has recently received a harsh reality check, Reuters Open Interest energy columnist Ron Bousso argues, as power failures and a string of cancelled renewables projects make clear that the road to inexpensive power will carry a very high price tag. London showdown A top-level U.S. delegation including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is in the UK to meet with Chinese representatives for trade talks. China's vice premier He Lifeng is also in the UK. The meeting follows a 90-minute phone call between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping last week to restart the stalled process. Tensions between the countries remain high, but on a positive note, there was some relief on Friday from news that Beijing had granted temporary export licenses to suppliers of rare earth minerals to the top three U.S. automakers: Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Meanwhile, trade pressures on China's stuttering economy were all too evident in the latest sweep of May export and inflation numbers released on Monday. China's exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5% year-on-year in May, the sharpest drop since February 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic upended global trade. The decline in imports from America also deepened to an annual drop of 18%. By contrast, Wall Street stocks were buoyed by the April U.S. payrolls report released on Friday, with the S&P500 gaining more than 1% by the close to reach its highest point since February. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are now back in positive territory for the year. Nonfarm jobs increased by 139,000 jobs last month, slightly above consensus forecasts, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. While downward revisions to the two prior months' figures are a cause for some concern, the sweep of the report showed few major cracks. Treasury yields rose after the report, with 30-year yields back within a few basis points of 5% again on Monday ahead of the week's big long bond auction and the May U.S. consumer price inflation data release on Wednesday. Despite President Trump's call for a full percentage point cut in Federal Reserve interest rates on Friday and his statement about naming Fed Chair Jerome Powell's successor soon, Fed easing expectations remain subdued. Futures now only price about a 70% chance of a move by September and expect only 46 bps of cuts by yearend. Outside of the U.S., the Japanese yen firmed to 144.43 per dollar as Japan's economy contracted at a slower-than-expected pace in the January-March period. Japan's government is considering buying back some super-long bonds it issued at low interest rates, according to Reuters sources. The move would come on top of an expected government plan to trim issuance of super-long bonds in the wake of sharp rises in yields. Be sure to check out today's column, which looks at a novel proposal for expanding the size and liquidity of jointly issued euro sovereign bonds. This possible plan comes at a critical juncture when global investors are looking for possible alternatives to the dominant U.S. Treasury market. Chart of the day China's export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as U.S. tariffs slammed shipments, while factory-gate deflation deepened to its worst level in two years, heaping pressure on the world's second-largest economy on both the domestic and external fronts. While the trade story has hogged the spotlight this year, the deflation picture has been brewing for several years, partly because the country's property bust has depressed domestic demand. Today's events to watch * New York Federal Reserve's May survey of consumer expectations, U.S. May employment trends (10:00 AM EDT); Mexico May inflation (8:00 AM EDT) * U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meet Chinese trade delegation, including China's vice premier He Lifeng, in London * Argentina's President Javier Milei meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in France Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Mike Dolan; Editing by Anna Szymanski) Sign in to access your portfolio
