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Hindustan Times
14 hours ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
Beware Iran's New Ruling Elite
All wars have consequences, particularly for the vanquished. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the 12-Day War—its recent conflict with Israel and the U.S.—hasn't been a soul-scorching, society-rending fight in the way of the Iran-Iraq War. From 1980-88, hundreds of thousands perished and battlefield trauma nearly cracked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the theocracy's indispensable pillar. But that conflict did offer an opportunity for Iran: The struggle led the regime to build institutions that guaranteed the revolution's survival. The 12-Day War, by contrast, has weakened the heads of those institutions substantially and looks likely to launch a new generation of leaders. That's bad news for Israel and America. Today, the regime is defined ideologically by its fight against Israel and the U.S. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his minions have tried to claim victory over the Jewish state in the 12-Day War. But whatever they say in public, the overwhelming sentiment among them is surely not pride but shame. The loss has greatly diminished the supreme leader's stature. And the consequences of defeat will catapult little-known, hard-core believers—the Revolutionary Guard officers who proved themselves against the Syrian rebellion a decade ago—into the weakened ruling elite. The headline for Israel and America: These men won't compromise on the regime's nuclear-weapon ambitions. And that's about all we know of them. During the Islamic Revolution in 1978-79, neither Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini nor many of his senior adjutants were enigmas to those who had studied Iran. They told us their goals and motivations. As those revolutionaries aged, they compiled their speeches, wrote books or allowed others to chronicle their intellectual evolution. The new crew on the cusp of power today is comparatively illiterate. These men have a thin paper trail because they see little reason to explain themselves to their countrymen or to the outside world. They are drawn from militant groups such as the Paydari Front and the second tier of the Revolutionary Guards. They look to guidance from the likes of the religiously obsessional Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who abjures compromise. They are found in the security organs, occupy seats in parliament and run their own education centers. They have created their own underground shadow government and ideological ecosystem. The supreme leader's weakened position has left these men an opening. If Mr. Khamenei had crossed the nuclear threshold and tested a weapon—as voices within the Revolutionary Guards advised him to do months ago—Iran would probably have foreclosed the possibility of foreign attacks. Now the 86-year-old cleric has to worry about dangerous discontent among battle-hardened soldiers. No matter how much the regime tries to play on Iranian nationalism, it's unlikely to recapture the citizenry, who no longer see theocrats and their enforcers as estimable expressions of their national identity or faith. To crush the countrywide Women, Life, Freedom movement in 2023—the most recent of many undermining protests—the regime beat, tortured, poisoned and killed young women and girls. Such brutality permanently severs the bonds between society and state. Even Israeli and American bombing runs won't restore them. Indeed, the rising generation of the Revolutionary Guards have defined themselves by their willingness to brutalize their countrymen repeatedly. And these guardsmen have had two other core commitments: the A-bomb program and the proxy war strategy devised by their fallen hero, Qassem Soleimani, the Revolutionary Guard dark lord whom an American missile felled in Baghdad in 2020. Israel's onslaught against these proxies since Oct. 7, 2023, has badly battered, perhaps permanently crippled, Soleimani's proxy-based 'axis of resistance' against the Jewish state and the U.S. But the nuclear-weapon ambitions remain viable. Moving forward, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to construct large enrichment plants such as Natanz or rely on mountains to protect its atomic assets. U.S. and Israeli satellite and aerial reconnaissance is too good, and construction times for new underground facilities are too long. Numerous, easily concealed surface facilities are now a better bet—so long as the regime can neutralize foreign spies in Iran. The mullahs have already launched a nationwide dragnet to cleanse their government of spies. These vicious counterintelligence measures will paralyze nuclear construction for a time, but eventually could enable a clandestine nuclear program that neither Jerusalem nor Washington can stop. The Iranians and Israelis are in a deadly intelligence duel. During the Cold War, Western and Soviet intelligence services continuously went at each other, but destiny seldom hung in the balance. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction provided some comfort and maneuvering room. Israelis are less certain that the threat of mutual annihilation works with the Islamic Republic's zealots. Are there enough Iranians in the right places who will risk their lives and the lives of their loved ones to stop the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards from obtaining the ultimate weapon? Even if Israel has developed a technical capacity to penetrate Iranian official communications, it's still the most pressing question before the Mossad. A second question also looms: Can Jerusalem learn enough about the new, fiercely anti-Zionist members of the Iranian elite to frustrate or compromise them? Learning where they live, though obviously important, will be the easy part. Mr. Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Wall Street Journal
a day ago
- Politics
- Wall Street Journal
Beware Iran's New Ruling Elite
All wars have consequences, particularly for the vanquished. For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the 12-Day War—its recent conflict with Israel and the U.S.—hasn't been a soul-scorching, society-rending fight in the way of the Iran-Iraq War. From 1980-88, hundreds of thousands perished and battlefield trauma nearly cracked the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the theocracy's indispensable pillar. But that conflict did offer an opportunity for Iran: The struggle led the regime to build institutions that guaranteed the revolution's survival. The 12-Day War, by contrast, has weakened the heads of those institutions substantially and looks likely to launch a new generation of leaders. That's bad news for Israel and America.
Newsweek
a day ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Iran Issues Public Spy Warning
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a nationwide warning urging citizens to resist espionage recruitment efforts following a 12-day military assault by Israel. The warning comes amid a crackdown in which Tehran arrested suspected spies accused of working with foreign security services. The message specifically cautioned the public against enemy attempts to infiltrate through mobile phone applications and digital propaganda. The appeal follows direct attacks on Iranian soil, cyber warfare, and domestic sabotage widely attributed to Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. Newsweek has reached out the foreign ministries of Iran and Israel for comment. Why It Matters Iran's public warning about foreign spy recruitment through mobile apps follows the intense Israeli air campaign inside Iran, which also saw the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites. This connection highlights a new front in the conflict that now blends physical strikes with cyber and espionage warfare targeting civilians. As Iran braces against both external military pressure and internal digital threats, the warning reflects a broader challenge facing nations globally in an era of hybrid warfare. A member of Iran's Revolutionary Guard stands guard at Enqelab-e-Eslami (Islamic Revolution) square in downtown Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, June 24, 2025. A member of Iran's Revolutionary Guard stands guard at Enqelab-e-Eslami (Islamic Revolution) square in downtown Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, June 24, 2025. Vahid Salemi/AP Photo What To Know The IRGC's public message emphasized "coordinated efforts by foreign spy services to recruit Iranians through mobile applications and digital ads." The statement urged citizens not only to avoid such messages but also to "alert others to the threat." While no country was explicitly named, it makes clear that Israel and its allies are the intended targets. Posted in Farsi on X, Iran's ISNA news agency published the IRGC warning, which also stated that "compatriots should vigilantly reject these tactics and inform others as well." پیام سازمان اطلاعات سپاه: با توجه به افزایش تلاش سرویسهای -جاسوسی دشمن بوسیله تبلیغات گسترده روی برنامههای گوشی همراه و دعوت به همکاری و خیانت به کشور، هموطنان با هوشیاری، این ترفندها را رد و دیگران را نیز آگاه کنند — خبرگزاری ایسنا (@isna_farsi) July 22, 2025 Spy Crackdown Since Israel's attack on June 13, and continuing after the ceasefire declared on June 24, Iranian authorities have launched a campaign to shore up domestic security. Iran has detained more than 700 individuals accused of collaborating with Israel or other hostile foreign governments. The crackdown has included mass arrests, swift trials, and multiple executions involving alleged spies. Israeli Fears Meanwhile, the Israeli government has launched its own media campaign warning citizens against being lured into espionage by Iran. Announced by Israel's National Government Diplomacy Directorate, the campaign—titled "Easy Money, Heavy Cost"—features video and audio messages cautioning that the legal consequences of spying for Tehran far outweigh any minor financial reward. The ads are set to run across radio, websites, and major social media platforms. Over the past year, Israeli authorities say they uncovered over 25 Iranian recruitment cases and indicted more than 35 Israelis on serious charges. What People Are Saying IRGC Intelligence Organization: "Please take action to inform those around you and be vigilant regarding this enemy tactic." Israel's National Government Diplomacy Directorate: "The Iranian enemy is expected to further intensify its recruitment efforts and task execution within Israel." What Happens Next In the wake of military strikes and internal arrests, Iran is expected to ramp up surveillance, expand digital monitoring, and strengthen security measures as its conflict with Israel and the U.S. intensifies on both foreign and domestic fronts.
San Francisco Chronicle
3 days ago
- Science
- San Francisco Chronicle
Iran sends a rocket designed to carry satellites into a suborbital test flight
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran tested one of its satellite carrying rockets with a suborbital flight on Monday, state media reported, the first such test since a ceasefire was reached after a 12-day war waged by Israel against Iran in June, which also saw the United States strike nuclear-related facilities in the Islamic Republic. The test was the latest for a program that the West says improves Tehran's ballistic missiles. A report by the official IRNA news agency said the Ghased satellite carrier test aimed at 'assessing some emerging new technologies in the country's space industry.' It said the test results will help improve the function of Iran's satellites and space systems. The report did not provide any further details on the test flight or from where the rocket was launched. Iran from time to time Iran launches satellite carriers to send its satellites to the space. Last September, Iran launched a satellite into space with a rocket built by the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The Ghased, a solid and fluid fuel rocket, was first inaugurated in 2020 by the Guard when it put a military satellite in the orbit. The war in June killed nearly 1,100 Iranians, including senior military commanders and nuclear scientist. Retaliatory missile barrages by Iran killed 28 in Israel.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Iran sends a rocket designed to carry satellites into a suborbital test flight
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran tested one of its satellite carrying rockets with a suborbital flight on Monday, state media reported, the first such test since a ceasefire was reached after a 12-day war waged by Israel against Iran in June, which also saw the United States strike nuclear-related facilities in the Islamic Republic. The test was the latest for a program that the West says improves Tehran's ballistic missiles. A report by the official IRNA news agency said the Ghased satellite carrier test aimed at 'assessing some emerging new technologies in the country's space industry.' It said the test results will help improve the function of Iran's satellites and space systems. The report did not provide any further details on the test flight or from where the rocket was launched. Iran from time to time Iran launches satellite carriers to send its satellites to the space. Last September, Iran launched a satellite into space with a rocket built by the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The Ghased, a solid and fluid fuel rocket, was first inaugurated in 2020 by the Guard when it put a military satellite in the orbit. The war in June killed nearly 1,100 Iranians, including senior military commanders and nuclear scientist. Retaliatory missile barrages by Iran killed 28 in Israel. The Associated Press
