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Inside the URI tools keeping Rhode Island ahead of the next big storm
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The Rhode Island Coastal Hazards Analysis Modeling Prediction System (RI-CHAMP) can run hypothetical weather models that show the impacts of an extreme landfalling storm on critical infrastructure.
University of Rhode Island / Screenshots
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In June, the state Legislature's fiscal year 2026 budget included $200,000 of $400,000 in proposed funding for the tools.
The Globe discussed all three tools, funding impacts, and weather forecasting with three URI researchers: Austin Becker, Malcolm Spaulding, and Isaac Ginis, and Clara Decerbo, director of the Providence Emergency Management Agency.
Q. How does this suite of tools help Rhode Islanders plan for the next big weather impact?
Becker:
Coastal communities are facing significant risks from natural hazards today. Hurricanes, nor'easters, big precipitation events that will get worse and more intense with climate change. So that requires three things: good communication about what the risks are, understanding of how those hazards will affect properties, and infrastructure in the future so that we can make plans and not put things in harm's way.
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What does RI-CHAMP (Rhode Island Coastal Hazards, Analysis, Modeling & Prediction System) do?
Ginis:
RI-CHAMP is a key innovation combining storm forecasting with a prediction of the impact on critical infrastructure and facilities. We've relied
on forecasts from the National Weather Service of hurricanes and nor'easters, then it's up to local decision-makers to determine the total impact on critical infrastructure and facilities. In RI-CHAMP, we combine these together where we simultaneously predict the weather and the impact.
Becker:
As a hurricane is coming up the coast, or a nor'easter, the models pick up some of the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center products. CHAMP takes that track forecast and translates it into flooding on the ground and wind at a very high-resolution local scale. Instead of a forecaster giving the public a forecast range of flooding — like 3 to 5 feet — these models allow you to zoom into specific areas and see how much flooding to expect, at a much finer scale.
This screenshot from the STORMTOOLS Risk and Damage App shows images of where flooding would be located and the severity of property damage.
University of Rhode Island / Screenshots
RI-CHAMP is loaded with details about critical infrastructure. How does that help inform decision makers — and the public?
Becker:
We're social scientists. With the facility managers, walking the grounds together and we identify the specific things at facilities that are in harm's way. We capture those coordinates. We take a picture, and we establish the threshold for an impact. So, let's say it's an electrical transformer — a big metal box — sitting on a concrete foundation. We work with that facility manager to measure the height of water that would damage that transformer. That all gets captured, as well as the consequences. Gathering this data makes RI-CHAMP better able to predict the impact on infrastructure during storms.
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Ginis:
Another important application of RI-CHAMP is we can do simulations — hypothetical but plausible storms that never happened but could happen. We can envision significant storms in the future. We can include the effect of sea-level rise.
Showing a slide of hypothetical Hurricane Rhody, Ginis says that RI-CHAMP can run a computer model that instantly
shows emergency managers
the effects of opening or closing the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier
gates, for example.
Related
:
Are these tools accessible to the public?
Becker:
STORMTOOLS and MyCoast are completely publicly accessible. STORMTOOLS is used in the Coastal Resources Management Council permitting process. There are parts of RI-CHAMP that are publicly available. We are planning to make the flooding and wind forecasts publicly available this hurricane season.
What is the scale of funding needed to keep these tools working?
Becker:
My guess is around $1 million a year to keep all three of these going and robust and updated, continually meeting the needs of the various state agencies, the general public, and private businesses for planning, communications, and emergency management purposes.
What does RI-CHAMP do that goes beyond normal storm forecasting?
Becker:
When a hurricane makes landfall, the wind speed goes down considerably as it moves across land due to friction from land cover and trees. The resolution models have a harder time accounting for the differences in those wind speeds as a storm makes landfall. Our models incorporate that.
What are the future plans for these tools, and how is the University of Rhode Island investing in that?
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Becker:
Our plan right now is to do some exploration and assessment of what a sustainable business model might look like. Is it a subscription-based thing? Are we providing one-off products? Currently, we have a proposal in review that would support business planning and help us develop cost-benefit analysis tools to really be able to show how these kinds of tools are an economic win. The question is, how do we get the initial funding to stand something up and make sure that we have a sustainable model so that it can continue without going to the feds for funding support? It's unclear if that support will be there in the future.
What else does the public need to know about these tools?
Becker:
It's not just science alone, it's science communicated to them in a way that is consumable and not overly complicated.
What is the risk to public safety and infrastructure without these tools?
Spaulding:
What happened is the permitting system that CRMC runs, which is the Coastal Hazard app, would disappear because the support for it would disappear. The people who have used the maps for planning — and statewide maps for roadways and emergency exits — that would all disappear. The support for some of the planning that goes into risk assessment would disappear.
The Boston Globe's weekly Ocean State Innovators column features a Q&A with Rhode Island innovators who are starting new businesses and nonprofits, conducting groundbreaking research, and reshaping the state's economy. Send tips and suggestions to reporter Alexa Gagosz at
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Carlos Muñoz can be reached at
