3 days ago
2 rounds of tropical trouble brewing in Atlantic
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting a busy hurricane season, especially early on and perhaps the latter part with a lull in the middle. File Photo (2016) by Richard Ellis/UPI | License Photo
While a disorganized mass of drenching showers and thunderstorms near the southeastern United States will be watched for development over the next few days, another tropical threat could emerge in the Caribbean prior to the middle of the month.
"These are the areas that we would typically look for tropical development during the month of June, so it's not uncommon to see that," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Watch the southern US Atlantic coast this week
An area strewn with showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Bahamas to South Florida and Cuba will slowly drift north-northeastward into Thursday, drenching Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal areas of the Carolinas.
The downpours can be beneficial for drought-stricken areas, but too much rain may fall too fast and lead to flash urban flooding. Cities such as Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Florida Charleston, South Carolina and Wilmington, North Carolina should be prepared for flooding.
Up to a few inches of rain can fall in as many hours on some communities.
Not only is urban flooding a concern, but building seas and local onshore winds from the budding low pressure area can lead to dangerous rip currents, coastal flooding, and beach erosion from the Florida east coast to the Carolinas.
"In terms of tropical development of this feature along the southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast, water temperatures right along the coast are still below that critical 80-degree Fahrenheit threshold," DaSilva said, "Waters are warmer over the Gulf stream, but that is well off the coast at this time. So if this can try to develop later this week, it would probably be over that Gulf Stream and not along the immediate coast."
Watch the western Caribbean next week
During the second week of June, a zone farther south-over the western and central Caribbean needs to be watched closely.
A slow-spinning massive low pressure area known as a gyre may develop, which can then give birth to smaller but more intense areas of low pressure that can evolve into tropical storms and hurricanes.
"What's going to happen is that the Central American gyre is finally going to develop in the next week or so. When you see trade winds coming from the east, and then you actually see some winds coming from the west down here, that kind of turns a big area of low pressure down here," DaSilva said.
The waters are plenty warm in the Caribbean to foster and sustain tropical development.
"The timing we are looking at for possible tropical development in the central and western Caribbean is June 7-12 or perhaps a bit later," DaSilva said.
"Should a tropical depression or storm take shape early next week, it may be more likely to track into the Gulf and then perhaps swing towards Louisiana or Florida," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, "Should it wait till later next week or perhaps hold off until nearly the middle of the month, steering breezes would be more likely to take it into southern Mexico or Central America."
AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting a busy hurricane season, especially early on and perhaps the latter part with a lull in the middle.
Between three to six direct impacts on the United States are anticipated.
