Latest news with #RichardHorsey
TimesLIVE
22-04-2025
- Business
- TimesLIVE
Russia's Rosatom to proceed with Myanmar nuclear plant despite quake
Authorities in neighbouring Thailand, which is closely monitoring Myanmar's nuclear developments, assess that a plant could be built in Naypyitaw, a fortified purpose-built capital that was heavily damaged by the earthquake, according to a security source briefed on the matter. Two other potential sites include a location in the central Bago region and the Dawei special economic zone in southern Myanmar, where the junta and Russia have announced plans to build a port and an oil refinery, according to the Thai assessment. Myanmar lies on the boundary between two tectonic plates and is one of the world's most seismically active countries. Money and manpower Southeast Asia's first nuclear facility — the 621MW Bataan Nuclear Power Plant in the Philippines — was finished in 1984 with a price tag of $2.3bn (R42.79bn) but mothballed in the wake of the Chernobyl disaster in the then Soviet Union two years later. The Philippines and other regional countries have since mounted repeated efforts to explore nuclear energy but made limited progress. Vietnam is, however, showing renewed interest in nuclear power after it suspended its program in 2016. Russia and Myanmar have been collaborating in the sector for years, with Burmese students studying nuclear energy and related subjects in Russian universities under government quotas since 2019, according to Rosatom. 'I do not foresee any complication, technology-wise,' said Doonyapong Wongsawaeng, a lecturer at the department of nuclear engineering at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. 'I feel that the main challenge would instead be the continuous commitment from the Myanmar government.' With the Myanmar junta prioritising exports of natural gas, which could be used to fuel cheaper domestic power generation, to earn foreign exchange, the nuclear plan makes no economic sense for a cash-strapped administration, said Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at International Crisis Group.
Telegraph
05-04-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Does the Myanmar earthquake spell the end for the junta?
A week after an earthquake flattened central Myanmar, the country's shunned dictator swapped his green army uniform for a neat black suit and headed to Bangkok. It was a diplomatic triumph for General Min Aung Hlaing. Since seizing power four years ago and plunging his country into a civil war he has been treated as pariah on the international stage, with overseas trips only to China and Russia, his key backers. But on Thursday he was welcomed into Thailand for the first time since 2021, where he rubbed shoulders with leaders from India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal at a summit of countries from the Bay of Bengal. Disaster management was on the agenda. The trip exploits a window opened by the earthquake to ramp up diplomacy, and is a major moment for a man who has long desired legitimacy on the international stage. Yet at home, his position is weaker than ever. 'This is a time of jeopardy for him,' said Richard Horsey, a Myanmar researcher at the Crisis Group think tank. 'I'm sure he'll be relieved to leave the chaos and destruction behind and spend a day with other leaders, and imagine that he is gradually being accepted on the world stage… [but] the grim reality will reassert itself as soon as he returns.' He added: 'There is significant elite discontent that will only grow if the regime response remains chaotic and ineffective.' It is now a week since Myanmar was hit by a 7.7 magnitude earthquake, flattening thousands of buildings, toppling bridges and buckling roads. At least 3,100 people have been confirmed dead – a figure that is almost certain to rise as more bodies are pulled from mounds of rubble and mangled metal. The south-east Asian country, a former British colony, has largely been run by kleptocratic and corrupt military dictatorships since the 1960s. But the quake has compounded an existing humanitarian crisis: the civil war has killed thousands, displaced three million people, and left 20 million people in need of aid. Now, already stretched hospitals are overwhelmed with earthquake victims, with doctors forced to treat patients outside in 40C temperatures amid fears buildings could collapse. Clean water, food, medicines and shelter are in short supply, and rain forecast for the coming week will only make things worse. 'Our entire family has to sleep by the roadside,' May Thaw Lwin, who lives in the hard-hit city of Mandalay, told the Telegraph. 'There are constant aftershocks, and even if we wanted to stay at a friend's house, we're afraid it might collapse too. 'Sleeping outside means getting bitten by a lot of mosquitoes,' she added. 'We're also struggling with water and food shortages… and the smell of decomposition is getting stronger. Living in this country, it's not just about having bad luck anymore. It feels like we're the unluckiest people in the world.' Although as much as 60 per cent of Myanmar is now held by opposition groups, the disaster has disproportionately affected junta-held territory – including the capital Naypyidaw, their seat of power. But although Min Aung Hlaing has been photographed visiting hospitals and inspecting rescue efforts, most view the military's response as slow. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has also accused the junta of restricting aid supplies to areas where local communities do not back its rule. Mr Horsey said Min Aung Hlaing has failed to even arrange search and rescue or emergency shelter for civil servants in the capital. 'This disaster plays to all his weaknesses,' he said. 'He has been criticised within regime circles for being indecisive, micro-managing and unstrategic. Those traits have all been in evidence since the quake. His detractors… will have new ammunition.' Morgan Michaels, a research fellow for South East Asian security and defence at the Institute for Strategic Studies, said: 'The military is in a weaker position now. Their administrative capacity has been hit hard and its communications lines may have been severed by the earthquake. Min Aung Hlaing will be blamed – this is bad for him.' There is also mounting anger that the military has continued to drop bombs since the earthquake struck. While opposition groups – including the exiled National Unity Government, and the powerful Three Brotherhood Alliance – rapidly announced ceasefires, the junta held off. On April 2 they were pushed to do so, but the UN said it is investigating 16 reports of airstrikes since then. David Eubank, head of the Free Burma Rangers, which operates inside Myanmar, also sent The Telegraph unpublishable photographs of people and buildings hit in airstrikes in Shan and Karenni state since Wednesday. In one, a body is burned beyond recognition, another image appears to show a person decapitated. Commentators said the military's drive to maintain airstrikes is itself a sign of weakness, not power, especially as it comes after a stretch of time where the junta has struggled to recruit new soldiers and lost several key battles. 'The earthquake has shaken more than just buildings, it's rattled the junta's already fragile grip on power,' said Nang San Htwe, a 27-year-old in central Myanmar. 'As they seek legitimacy abroad, the crisis at home exposes their vulnerability. Natural disasters don't discriminate, but their impact does. With resources stretched and legitimacy crumbling, the earthquake may prove to be another fault line in the junta's rule. It's not just about survival, it's about control.' But it's not yet clear how the overall civil war will be affected by the earthquake. Mr Michaels said it would be a good time for opposition groups to strike a vulnerable junta, 'but the optics of that could be bad' and any new offensive may backfire. 'No straight path to a peaceful future' Mr Horsey added: 'As regards the conflict, there is no straight path from here to a more peaceful future. The regime and the resistance groups born after the coup are locked in an existential battle to eliminate the other.' Yet for those struggling to pick up their lives inside the deeply superstitious country, the earthquake – which followed the military's show of might at an armed forces day parade on Thursday – has been taken as an omen that Min Aung Hlaing's days are numbered. 'Traditional Myanmar culture has always seen natural disasters as cosmic commentary on the leaders of the day, [that] 'bad things happen when there are bad rulers',' said Mr Horsey. 'As a deeply superstitious person himself, he knows that many people around him, and across the country, will interpret this earthquake as a consequence of the coup and the subsequent violence his regime has unleashed.'
Yahoo
05-04-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Does the Myanmar earthquake spell the end for the junta?
A week after an earthquake flattened central Myanmar, the country's shunned dictator swapped his green army uniform for a neat black suit and headed to Bangkok. It was a diplomatic triumph for General Min Aung Hlaing. Since seizing power four years ago and plunging his country into a civil war he has been treated as pariah on the international stage, with overseas trips only to China and Russia, his key backers. But on Thursday he was welcomed into Thailand for the first time since 2021, where he rubbed shoulders with leaders from India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal at a summit of countries from the Bay of Bengal. Disaster management was on the agenda. The trip exploits a window opened by the earthquake to ramp up diplomacy, and is a major moment for a man who has long desired legitimacy on the international stage. Yet at home, his position is weaker than ever. 'This is a time of jeopardy for him,' said Richard Horsey, a Myanmar researcher at the Crisis Group think tank. 'I'm sure he'll be relieved to leave the chaos and destruction behind and spend a day with other leaders, and imagine that he is gradually being accepted on the world stage… [but] the grim reality will reassert itself as soon as he returns.' He added: 'There is significant elite discontent that will only grow if the regime response remains chaotic and ineffective.' It is now a week since Myanmar was hit by a 7.7 magnitude earthquake, flattening thousands of buildings, toppling bridges and buckling roads. At least 3,100 people have been confirmed dead – a figure that is almost certain to rise as more bodies are pulled from mounds of rubble and mangled metal. The south-east Asian country, a former British colony, has largely been run by kleptocratic and corrupt military dictatorships since the 1960s. But the quake has compounded an existing humanitarian crisis: the civil war has killed thousands, displaced three million people, and left 20 million people in need of aid. Now, already stretched hospitals are overwhelmed with earthquake victims, with doctors forced to treat patients outside in 40C temperatures amid fears buildings could collapse. Clean water, food, medicines and shelter are in short supply, and rain forecast for the coming week will only make things worse. Credit: Myanmar Fire Services Department 'Our entire family has to sleep by the roadside,' May Thaw Lwin, who lives in the hard-hit city of Mandalay, told the Telegraph. 'There are constant aftershocks, and even if we wanted to stay at a friend's house, we're afraid it might collapse too. 'Sleeping outside means getting bitten by a lot of mosquitoes,' she added. 'We're also struggling with water and food shortages… and the smell of decomposition is getting stronger. Living in this country, it's not just about having bad luck anymore. It feels like we're the unluckiest people in the world.' Although as much as 60 per cent of Myanmar is now held by opposition groups, the disaster has disproportionately affected junta-held territory – including the capital Naypyidaw, their seat of power. But although Min Aung Hlaing has been photographed visiting hospitals and inspecting rescue efforts, most view the military's response as slow. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights has also accused the junta of restricting aid supplies to areas where local communities do not back its rule. Mr Horsey said Min Aung Hlaing has failed to even arrange search and rescue or emergency shelter for civil servants in the capital. 'This disaster plays to all his weaknesses,' he said. 'He has been criticised within regime circles for being indecisive, micro-managing and unstrategic. Those traits have all been in evidence since the quake. His detractors… will have new ammunition.' Morgan Michaels, a research fellow for South East Asian security and defence at the Institute for Strategic Studies, said: 'The military is in a weaker position now. Their administrative capacity has been hit hard and its communications lines may have been severed by the earthquake. Min Aung Hlaing will be blamed – this is bad for him.' There is also mounting anger that the military has continued to drop bombs since the earthquake struck. While opposition groups – including the exiled National Unity Government, and the powerful Three Brotherhood Alliance – rapidly announced ceasefires, the junta held off. On April 2 they were pushed to do so, but the UN said it is investigating 16 reports of airstrikes since then. David Eubank, head of the Free Burma Rangers, which operates inside Myanmar, also sent The Telegraph unpublishable photographs of people and buildings hit in airstrikes in Shan and Karenni state since Wednesday. In one, a body is burned beyond recognition, another image appears to show a person decapitated. Commentators said the military's drive to maintain airstrikes is itself a sign of weakness, not power, especially as it comes after a stretch of time where the junta has struggled to recruit new soldiers and lost several key battles. 'The earthquake has shaken more than just buildings, it's rattled the junta's already fragile grip on power,' said Nang San Htwe, a 27-year-old in central Myanmar. 'As they seek legitimacy abroad, the crisis at home exposes their vulnerability. Natural disasters don't discriminate, but their impact does. With resources stretched and legitimacy crumbling, the earthquake may prove to be another fault line in the junta's rule. It's not just about survival, it's about control.' But it's not yet clear how the overall civil war will be affected by the earthquake. Mr Michaels said it would be a good time for opposition groups to strike a vulnerable junta, 'but the optics of that could be bad' and any new offensive may backfire. Mr Horsey added: 'As regards the conflict, there is no straight path from here to a more peaceful future. The regime and the resistance groups born after the coup are locked in an existential battle to eliminate the other.' Yet for those struggling to pick up their lives inside the deeply superstitious country, the earthquake – which followed the military's show of might at an armed forces day parade on Thursday – has been taken as an omen that Min Aung Hlaing's days are numbered. 'Traditional Myanmar culture has always seen natural disasters as cosmic commentary on the leaders of the day, [that] 'bad things happen when there are bad rulers',' said Mr Horsey. 'As a deeply superstitious person himself, he knows that many people around him, and across the country, will interpret this earthquake as a consequence of the coup and the subsequent violence his regime has unleashed.' Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Chicago Tribune
02-04-2025
- General
- Chicago Tribune
Survivors still being found after Myanmar's earthquake but military attacks could harm relief effort
BANGKOK — Rescuers pulled two men alive from the ruins of a hotel in Myanmar's capital on Wednesday and a third from a guesthouse in another city, five days after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake. But most teams were finding only bodies, and concerns were growing that continued military attacks on resistance forces could jeopardize relief efforts. The quake hit midday Friday, toppling thousands of buildings, collapsing bridges and buckling roads. The death toll rose to 2,886 Wednesday, with another 4,639 injured, according to state television MRTV. Local reports suggest much higher figures. The earthquake came amid civil war in Myanmar, making a dire humanitarian crisis even worse. More than 3 million people had been displaced from their homes and nearly 20 million were in need even before it hit, according to the United Nations. Two of the major armed resistance forces fighting the military, which seized power in 2021 from the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, have announced ceasefires to facilitate the humanitarian response to the earthquake, but the military hasn't relented in its attacks. 'Once again they are putting regime survival above the interests of people, even at a time of calamity,' said Richard Horsey, senior adviser for Myanmar with the Crisis Group. Dramatic rescue in Myanmar capital In the capital, Naypyitaw, a team of Turkish and local rescue workers used an endoscopic camera to locate Naing Lin Tun on a lower floor of the damaged hotel where he worked. They pulled him gingerly through a hole jackhammered through a floor and loaded him on to a gurney nearly 108 hours after he was first trapped. Shirtless and covered in dust, he appeared weak but conscious in a video released by the local fire department, as he was fitted with an IV drip and taken away. State-run MRTV reported later in the day that another man was saved from the same building, more than 121 hours after the quake struck. Both were age 26. Another man was rescued by a team of Malaysian and local crews from a collapsed guesthouse in the Sagaing township, near the epicenter of the earthquake close to Myanmar's second-largest city, Mandalay. The earthquake also rocked neighboring Thailand, causing the collapse of a high-rise building under construction in Bangkok. One body was removed from the rubble early Wednesday, raising the death total in Bangkok to 22 with 35 injured, primarily at the construction site. Military has rejected a ceasefire The Three Brotherhood Alliance, one of a powerful group of militias that has taken a large swath of the country from the military, announced a unilateral one-month ceasefire on Tuesday to facilitate the humanitarian response. The shadow opposition National Unity Government founded by lawmakers ousted in 2021 had already called a ceasefire for its forces. The announcements put pressure on the military government to follow suit, said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project. Even if the military does, it's too early to say whether a pause in fighting could lead to something longer lasting, he said. The head of Myanmar's military government, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, has rejected the idea of a ceasefire so far. Claims of an attack on a Chinese Red Cross convoy Most recently, an opposition militia belonging to the Brotherhood Alliance reported that the military fired on a relief convoy of nine Chinese Red Cross vehicles late Tuesday in the northern part of Shan state near Ohn Ma Tee village. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army said that the Chinese Red Cross was bringing supplies to Mandalay and had reported its route to the military. But Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, spokesman for the military government, said that the convoy hadn't notified authorities of its route ahead of time, MRTV reported. While not mentioning the Red Cross, he said that security forces had fired into the air to deter a convoy that refused to stop near Ohn Ma Tee village, the site of recent fighting with the TNLA. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun didn't comment on the attack. Neighboring China is economically important to Myanmar, and also one of the military's largest suppliers of weapons, along with Russia. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said it was looking into the matter. More international aid heads to Myanmar Countries have pledged millions in assistance to help Myanmar and humanitarian aid organizations with the monumental task ahead. Australia on Wednesday said it was providing another $4.5 million, in addition to $1.25 million it had already committed, and had a rapid response team on the ground. India has flown in aid and sent two navy ships with supplies as well as providing around 200 rescue workers. Multiple other countries have sent teams, including 270 people from China, 212 from Russia and 122 from the United Arab Emirates. A three-person team from the U.S. Agency for International Development arrived Tuesday to determine how best to respond given limited U.S. resources due to the slashing of the foreign aid budget and dismantling of the agency as an independent operation. Washington has said it would provide $2 million in emergency assistance. Extent of devastation beyond major cities is still unclear Most of the details so far have come from Mandalay, which was near the epicenter of the earthquake, and Naypyitaw, about 270 kilometers (165 miles) north of Mandalay. Many areas are without power, telephone or cellphone connections, and difficult to reach by road, but more reports are beginning to trickle in. In Singu township, about 65 kilometers (40 miles) north of Mandalay, 27 gold miners were killed in a cave-in, the independent Democratic Voice of Burma reported. In the area of Inle Lake, northeast of the capital, many people died when homes built on wooden stilts in the water collapsed in the earthquake, the Global New Light of Myanmar reported without providing specific figures.
Yahoo
30-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Amid earthquake crisis, Myanmar military still bombs towns
(Reuters) - An armed resistance movement against Myanmar's military-run government criticised the junta on Sunday for conducting airstrikes on villages even as the country reels from an earthquake that has killed around 1,700 people. The Karen National Union, one of Myanmar's oldest ethnic armies, said in a statement that the junta "continues to carry out airstrikes targeting civilian areas, even as the population suffers tremendously from the earthquake". The group said that under normal circumstances, the military would be prioritising relief efforts, but instead is focused on "deploying forces to attack its people". A spokesman for the junta did not reply to queries from Reuters about the criticism. Myanmar has been locked in civil war with multiple armed opposition groups since a 2021 coup, when the military seized power from the elected government of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Shortly after Friday's devastating earthquake, military jets launched airstrikes and drone attacks in Karen state, near the KNU headquarters, according to the Free Burma Rangers, a relief organisation. The epicentre of the 7.7-magnitude quake was in an area held by junta forces, but the devastation is widespread and also affected some territory held by armed resistance movements. On Sunday, the opposition National Unity Government, which includes remnants of the government ousted in 2021, said anti-junta militias under its command would pause all offensive military action for two weeks. Richard Horsey, the senior Myanmar adviser at Crisis Group, said some anti-junta forces have halted their offensives but fighting continues elsewhere. "The regime also continues to launch airstrikes, including in affected areas. That needs to stop," he said. He added that the regime was not providing much visible support in quake-hit areas. "Local fire brigades, ambulance crews, and community organisations have mobilised, but the military - who would normally be mobilised to support in such a crisis - are nowhere to be seen," Horsey said.
