Latest news with #RichmondFed
Bloomberg
a day ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Masters in Business: Tom Barkin
Barry speaks with Richmond Federal Reserve President and CEO Tom Barkin. Tom has been a member of the Richmond Fed since 2018. He is also on the Federal Open Markets committee and is responsible for a variety of Richmond Fed technology and bank supervision. Previously, Tom had spent 30 years at McKinsey, where eventually he became chief risk Officer and then Chief Financial Officer. The perfect guest given the recent news of global tariffs, domestic manufacturing, and US monetary policy.
Globe and Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Dollar Supported by Trade Optimism and Higher Bond Yields
The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.18%. The dollar today is adding to Tuesday's gains on positive carryover from President Trump's action over the past weekend to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on US importers of EU goods by about 5 weeks to July 9 from June 1. The dollar also has support from higher T-note yields. Gains in the dollar are limited by some negative carryover from last Thursday when the House passed President Trump's tax and spending plan, which would add to the burgeoning US budget deficit. The US May Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rose by +4 to -9, right on expectations. The markets are discounting the chances at 2% for a -25 bp rate cut after the June 17-18 FOMC meeting. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is down by -0.11%. Today's dollar strength is undercutting the euro. Also, weaker-than-expected economic news is weighing on the euro after German May unemployment rose more than expected and after German Apr import prices fell more than expected, dovish factors for ECB policy. Losses in the euro are limited after the ECB's Apr 1-year CPI expectations were the highest in 14 months, a hawkish factor for ECB policy. The ECB Apr 1-year CPI expectations indicator of +3.1% y/y was stronger than expectations of +2.8% y/y and the highest in 14 months. The ECB Apr 3-year CPI expectations indicator was unchanged from March at +2.5% y/y, right on expectations. German May unemployment rose by +34,000, higher than expectations of +12,000 and the most in 2-3/4 years. The May unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%, right on expectations. The German Apr import price index fell -1.7% m/m, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.4% m/m and the largest drop in more than two years. Swaps are discounting the chances at 98% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the June 5 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.24%. The yen today added to Tuesday's sharp losses and fell to a 1-week low against the dollar on negative carryover from Tuesday when Bloomberg News reported that Japan's finance ministry sent a questionnaire to market participants regarding appropriate issuance amounts for government bonds, a sign the finance ministry may seek to reduce debt issuance. Also, higher T-note yields today are bearish for the yen. June gold (GCM2 5) today is up +4.10 (+0.12%), and July silver (SIN2 5) is down -0.021 (-0.06%). Precious metals today are mixed on consolidation after Tuesday's sharp losses. Demand for gold as an inflation hedge rose today after the ECB's Apr 1-year CPI expectations indicator of +3.1% y/y was stronger than expectations of +2.8% y/y and the highest in 14 months. In addition, precious metals prices have continued safe-haven support from uncertainty about global trade relations and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East. Bearish factors for precious metals include today's stronger dollar and higher global bond yields. Silver prices are also under pressure on concern that an escalation of the global trade war would dampen economic activity and demand for industrial metals.
Business Recorder
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Minutes of Fed's May meeting likely to show officials grappling with uncertainty
The U.S. Federal Reserve at its May 6-7 meeting undercut expectations that it would change its policy interest rate anytime soon, and minutes from that session released on Wednesday may show just how firmly policymakers are holding onto their current wait-and-see approach. The minutes will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) and in key ways have been superseded by developments since then. The meeting took place when concern over the economic fallout from changes in global trade and tariff policy was intense, stoked by President Donald Trump's announcement in early April of massive new import taxes. A week later the most aggressive of the new tariffs had either been lowered or postponed in announcements by Trump that reduced pressures that had been driving bond yields sharply higher, buoyed a sinking stock market, and led analysts who regarded a U.S. recession as a near certainty in a high-tariff world to upgrade their growth forecasts. Still, the minutes are likely to show policymakers wrestling as much with uncertainty as with the negative outlook from early May, and the erratic nature of administration policymaking - Trump from this past Friday to Sunday announced then postponed steep new taxes on European imports - hasn't changed. Fed's Williams says monetary policy is in good place right now 'I've been describing this as driving through fog,' Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Tuesday on Bloomberg Television. 'It's just very hard.' Barkin said that data for the year so far shows the economy on the same path as it has been, with reasonably low unemployment and inflation easing to the Fed's 2% target. But there are competing narratives, he and other policymakers say, that see a new jump in inflation in coming months as tariffs take hold, or rising joblessness as widespread uncertainty and rising costs fuel a slowdown, or even a toxic combination of both. Until it is clear which way the economy pivots under the influence of shifting global trade rules, the Fed has little reason to alter the 4.25% to 4.50% policy interest rate it has maintained since December. 'Published data shows an economy very much on the same trajectory that we've been on for the last year or two. Low unemployment, inflation settling toward target,' Barkin said. 'I could describe how some of these forces, like tariffs, might be inflationary. I can describe how other forces, like lower gas prices, might be disinflationary,' he said. 'Less government spending might be less employment…People who haven't hired for 18 months, if spending continues, might need to start hiring. So I'm waiting to see what happens.' Fed staff have been trying to estimate the likely impact of different tariff rules in a series of studies that may get mention in the minutes if they were presented to policymakers as part of the discussion around the economic outlook. But even those reports are contingent on the assumptions made about final tariff levels, something likely to remain unknown at least until July when a 90-day reprieve on the stiffest import taxes expires. Market optimism about the final outcome of the trade debate has been based on an expectation that negotiated deals with lower levies will by then have been approved. Even then it may take months more for the Fed to know how the economy is responding. Investors now anticipate the Fed holding the policy rate steady at the June and July meetings, but cutting a quarter point in September and again in December. 'Until we know more about how this is going to settle out and what the economic implications are for employment and for inflation, I couldn't confidently say that I know what the appropriate path will be,' Powell said at a May 7 press conference at the end of the Fed's meeting.
Zawya
3 days ago
- Business
- Zawya
Minutes of Fed's May meeting likely to show officials grappling with uncertainty
The U.S. Federal Reserve at its May 6-7 meeting undercut expectations that it would change its policy interest rate anytime soon, and minutes from that session released on Wednesday may show just how firmly policymakers are holding onto their current wait-and-see approach. The minutes will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) and in key ways have been superseded by developments since then. The meeting took place when concern over the economic fallout from changes in global trade and tariff policy was intense, stoked by President Donald Trump's announcement in early April of massive new import taxes. A week later the most aggressive of the new tariffs had either been lowered or postponed in announcements by Trump that reduced pressures that had been driving bond yields sharply higher, buoyed a sinking stock market, and led analysts who regarded a U.S. recession as a near certainty in a high-tariff world to upgrade their growth forecasts. Still, the minutes are likely to show policymakers wrestling as much with uncertainty as with the negative outlook from early May, and the erratic nature of administration policymaking - Trump from this past Friday to Sunday announced then postponed steep new taxes on European imports - hasn't changed. "I've been describing this as driving through fog," Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Tuesday on Bloomberg Television. "It's just very hard." Barkin said that data for the year so far shows the economy on the same path as it has been, with reasonably low unemployment and inflation easing to the Fed's 2% target. But there are competing narratives, he and other policymakers say, that see a new jump in inflation in coming months as tariffs take hold, or rising joblessness as widespread uncertainty and rising costs fuel a slowdown, or even a toxic combination of both. Until it is clear which way the economy pivots under the influence of shifting global trade rules, the Fed has little reason to alter the 4.25% to 4.50% policy interest rate it has maintained since December. "Published data shows an economy very much on the same trajectory that we've been on for the last year or two. Low unemployment, inflation settling toward target," Barkin said. "I could describe how some of these forces, like tariffs, might be inflationary. I can describe how other forces, like lower gas prices, might be disinflationary," he said. "Less government spending might be less who haven't hired for 18 months, if spending continues, might need to start hiring. So I'm waiting to see what happens." Fed staff have been trying to estimate the likely impact of different tariff rules in a series of studies that may get mention in the minutes if they were presented to policymakers as part of the discussion around the economic outlook. But even those reports are contingent on the assumptions made about final tariff levels, something likely to remain unknown at least until July when a 90-day reprieve on the stiffest import taxes expires. Market optimism about the final outcome of the trade debate has been based on an expectation that negotiated deals with lower levies will by then have been approved. Even then it may take months more for the Fed to know how the economy is responding. Investors now anticipate the Fed holding the policy rate steady at the June and July meetings, but cutting a quarter point in September and again in December. "Until we know more about how this is going to settle out and what the economic implications are for employment and for inflation, I couldn't confidently say that I know what the appropriate path will be," Powell said at a May 7 press conference at the end of the Fed's meeting. (Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
NYC leads return-to-office as hybrid work increases: Trial Balance
This story was originally published on To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily newsletter. The Trial Balance is weekly preview of stories, stats and events to help you prepare. With return-to-office efforts being implemented across the country, new data from indicates that in the U.S., New York City is closest, by far, to pre-pandemic in-office working rates. Nationwide, office visits were 30.7% below April 2019 levels. However, New York City traffic was just 5.5% short of pre-pandemic traffic, the smallest drop in the country. Miami followed, down 15.3%, while other major metropolitan areas like Atlanta and Dallas stayed consistent with the national average. The data comes from Office Index, which uses anonymized location information from cell phones to measure real-world foot traffic of around 1,000 office buildings across 11 U.S. cities. This embedded content is not available in your region. Boston showed moderate improvement, though it still trailed New York City and Miami. San Francisco, while still the furthest from full recovery compared to the other cities in the report, posted the strongest year-over-year growth. This may reflect the impact of return-to-office mandates in the tech sector despite the numerous challenges the city faces that impact the workers there. April marked the third-busiest office month since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, behind only October and July 2024. Hybrid trends remain dominant, with midweek in-office appearances, especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays, surpassing 2019 levels in NYC. Mondays and Fridays continue to lag, likely due to hybrid work models allowing some employees to skip the commute and work from home on those days. Here's a list of important market events slated for the week ahead. Monday, May 19 U.S. leading economic indicators, April Tuesday, May 20 Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks Boston Fed President Susan Collins at the Fed Listens event St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks Wednesday, May 21 Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman at the Fed Listens event Thursday, May 22 Initial jobless claims, week of May 17 S&P flash U.S. services PMI, May S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI, May Friday, May 23 New home sales, April Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks This week, some of the team will be in National Harbor, Maryland, for Gartner's CFO and Finance Executive Conference. There will be an event takeaway piece published this week (5/21), as well as multiple interviews from the event from CFOs and thought leaders that will roll out over the next few weeks. Recommended Reading Gov. Kathy Hochul to meet with execs on safety in NYC after murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO: Trial Balance Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
