Latest news with #RidhamDesai
Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Where to invest as markets overcome tariff fears? Analysts weigh in
From Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley, Wei Li, Global Chief Investment Strategist, BlackRock Inv. Institute and Shridatta Bhandwaldar of Canara Robeco MF, here is the market strategy of leading analysts Shine Jacob Indian stock markets continue to trade firm on Wednesday with the Sensex and the Nifty 50 recovering fully from the April 2 tariff imposition by US President Donald Trump. The surge comes on the back of 90-day pause by the US administration on the imposition of these tariffs. Are the markets completely out of the woods? Is it a good strategy to diversify into international markets? If so, which ones? Is this a 'sell on a rise market', or should investors buy the dips? Which sectors and stocks are a must for your portfolio, and which ones should be avoided? The market is transitioning from one driven by macro conditions to one where stock-picking is likely to add alpha. We are capitalisation-agnostic following recent developments, cutting back on our preference for small and mid-caps over large caps. While the bias remains to buy domestic sectors with a cyclical bias, both overweight and underweight positions stand reduced. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has policy space to act to support domestic growth, whereas external-facing sectors could go through multiple months of uncertainty.
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Business Standard
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 89,000 by June 2026, upside potential of 8%
The Sensex last traded half a per cent higher at 81,642. A report by the foreign brokerage identified strong fundamentals for domestic equities. "Strong macro stability with improving terms of trade, declining primary deficit, and low-inflation volatility; 2) mid- to high-teens earnings growth annually over the next three to five years, led by an emerging private capex cycle, re-leveraging of corporate balance sheets, and a structural rise in discretionary consumption…,' said Morgan Stanley equity strategists Ridham Desai and Nayant Parekh said in a note. '…3) a reliable source of domestic risk capital; 4) a dovish RBI (Reserve Bank of India); 5) ranged oil prices; 6) two positives from the recent geopolitical event: (i) India has a new doctrine on terror which makes future terror attacks an act of war, a strong deterrent to future terror strikes, also making it easy for future governments to act decisively against terror, unlike the past and, (ii) upside surprise in military performance underscoring strong progress made in strategy, air combat, navigation.' Morgan Stanley cited "technical supportive" factors such as persistent buying by retail investors, low volatility and foreign portfolio investors' weakest positioning since 2000. In terms of portfolio strategy, Morgan Stanley prefers "domestic cyclicals" over *defensive and "external-facing" sectors. It is overweight financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials and underweight energy, materials, utilities and health care. The brokerage acknowledged key risks, saying: "a global recession or near recession would challenge our call. Long-term concerns include capacity constraints in the judiciary, AI's effects on the tech industry, low productivity in the farm sector, and state-level fiscal challenges.
India.com
23-05-2025
- Business
- India.com
Sensex to hit 1 lakh by…?, check what Morgan Stanley's new target for stock market, upgrades India's GDP growth forecast to…
Morgan Stanley has set a new Sensex target of 89,000 by June 2026, considering India's growth and earnings potential, and a stable policy framework. In an optimistic bull-case scenario, where the firm assigns a 30% probability, the Sensex could reach the 1,00,000 mark. The global brokerage showed confidence in India's long-term growth trajectory. 'Our revised Sensex target of 89,000 for June 2026 represents an 8% upside and incorporates updated earnings estimates, rolling forward from our previous target of 82,000 by December 2025,' said Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, reported Economic Times. Morgan Stanley, on Wednesday modestly upgraded its forecast for the Indian economy to 6.2 per cent year-on-year for financial year 2026, up from 6.1 per cent and 6.5 per cent for FY 2027, up from 6.3 per cent. 'We upgrade our growth forecasts modestly to 6.2% YoY (vs. 6.1%) for F2026 and 6.5% YoY (vs. 6.3%) for F2027 in view of the de-escalation of US-China trade tensions, which improves the outlook for external demand at the margin,' said the report. The financial services firm cited the internal economic forces behind the upward revision of India's GDP. It says that domestic demand will remain the primary engine of growth, especially at a time when global uncertainties persist. 'Domestic demand trends will be the key driver of India's growth momentum amid lingering uncertainty on the external front,' Morgan Stanley added. The financial services firm further added that policy support from the government is likely to continue and it will boost domestic demand and growth. 'Policy support is likely to continue through easier monetary policy while fiscal policy prioritises capex. Macro stability is expected to be in the comfort zone with robust buffers,' the report added. The broking firm further added that within domestic demand, consumption recovery will become more broad-based with urban demand improving and rural consumption levels already robust. On the investment front, it added that public and household capex are driving growth, while the anticipation is that private corporate capex will recover gradually. 'Within domestic demand, we expect consumption recovery to become more broad-based with urban demand improving and rural consumption levels already robust. Within investments, we see public and household capex driving growth while we expect private corporate capex to recover gradually,' said the Morgan Stanley report (With Inputs From ANI) (Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.)
India Today
21-05-2025
- Business
- India Today
Can Sensex hit 1,00,000 in 12 months? Here's what Morgan Stanley says
Is the Sensex on its way to 1 lakh? Global brokerage Morgan Stanley believes the possibility is real—at least in its most optimistic outlook. In a new equity strategy note, the firm has revised its base case target for the benchmark index to 89,000 by June 2026, and projects that it could touch 1,00,000 in a bull case scenario, assigning a 30% probability to that new Sensex June 2026 target of 89,000 (8% upside) bakes in our new earnings estimates and is also rolled forward from the December 2025 target of 82,000,' said Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for India. The new target implies a trailing P/E of 23.5x, higher than the 25-year average of 21x, a premium Desai attributes to strong confidence in India's medium-term growth cycle, low beta, and policy Stanley's base case scenario (50% probability) factors in robust domestic growth, a benign trade deal with the US, stable oil prices, a positive liquidity environment, and a gradual 50bps cut in short-term interest rates. It also assumes continued support from retail investors, no major bunching of share issuances, and a 16.8% compound annual growth rate in Sensex earnings through The bull case, where the Sensex hits 1 lakh within the next 12 months, rests on more aggressive assumptions: oil prices persistently below $65/barrel, progress on farm reforms, GST rate cuts, and CAGR of 19% in corporate earnings. Relief from global trade tensions would further fuel this scenario.'Despite all the events of the past two months, Indian stocks remained orderly even when they declined, with limited increase in implied volumes,' Desai noted, highlighting persistent retail buying as evidence of structural strength in Indian foreign institutional positioning in Indian stocks is the weakest it has been since 2000, but Desai sees signs of a shift in terms of portfolio strategy, Morgan Stanley is overweight on financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials, while being underweight on energy, materials, utilities, and healthcare.'This is likely to be a stock pickers' market, in contrast to the macro-driven cycles seen since the pandemic,' Desai said, adding that the firm is capitalisation-agnostic, with average active sector positions modest at just 80 basis India's structural story intact, inflation largely under control, and policy visibility steady, the drawdown since September 2024 is being viewed not as a warning sign—but as a buying opportunity.(Disclaimer: The views, opinions, recommendations, and suggestions expressed by experts/brokerages in this article are their own and do not reflect the views of the India Today Group. It is advisable to consult a qualified broker or financial advisor before making any actual investment or trading choices.)Tune InMust Watch
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Business Standard
21-05-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Morgan Stanley sees Sensex at 89,000 by June 2026, upside potential of 8%
The Sensex last traded half a per cent higher at 81,642. A report by the foreign brokerage identified strong fundamentals for domestic equities. "Strong macro stability with improving terms of trade, declining primary deficit, and low-inflation volatility; 2) mid- to high-teens earnings growth annually over the next three to five years, led by an emerging private capex cycle, re-leveraging of corporate balance sheets, and a structural rise in discretionary consumption…,' said Morgan Stanley equity strategists Ridham Desai and Nayant Parekh said in a note. '…3) a reliable source of domestic risk capital; 4) a dovish RBI (Reserve Bank of India); 5) ranged oil prices; 6) two positives from the recent geopolitical event: (i) India has a new doctrine on terror which makes future terror attacks an act of war, a strong deterrent to future terror strikes, also making it easy for future governments to act decisively against terror, unlike the past and, (ii) upside surprise in military performance underscoring strong progress made in strategy, air combat, navigation.' Morgan Stanley cited "technical supportive" factors such as persistent buying by retail investors, low volatility and foreign portfolio investors' weakest positioning since 2000. In terms of portfolio strategy, Morgan Stanley prefers "domestic cyclicals" over *defensive and "external-facing" sectors. It is overweight financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials and underweight energy, materials, utilities and health care. The brokerage acknowledged key risks, saying: "a global recession or near recession would challenge our call. Long-term concerns include capacity constraints in the judiciary, AI's effects on the tech industry, low productivity in the farm sector, and state-level fiscal challenges."
