Latest news with #RobArnott
Bloomberg
25-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Open Interest 04/25/2025
Mixed messages on trade weigh on markets as consumer sentiment slides. Investing legend Rob Arnott talks about where he sees market opportunities in the midst of tariffs, earnings and volatility. Ducati North America CEO joins the C-Suite on how tariffs are affecting the motorcycle business. And we analyze the ultra-bullish signal from the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator. (Source: Bloomberg)
Yahoo
10-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump didn't care that the stock market was crashing. Bond yields were the ‘pain point' that finally got him to pause tariffs
President Trump didn't seem especially bothered by the epic fall in stock prices following his unveiling of extremely high and far, far loftier than anticipated tariffs in early April. Instead, his main focus is and has long been a different measure: He is obsessed with rates on 10-year Treasury bonds. To him, this is the measure that matters because so many things are tied to that benchmark: It's a big factor in setting car loans, mortgage rates, credit card rates, and also determines the 'base rate' that companies pay on their crucial long-term borrowings. Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees investment strategies for $150 billion in investment funds, puts it bluntly: 'Trump cares more about the 10-year Treasury than about the stock market,' he says. Virtually since his inauguration, Trump's been pushing to bend the Fed to his will and help bring down rates. On March 19, the POTUS issued a post on Truth Social exhorting: 'The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING rates as U.S. tariffs start to transition their way into the economy.' In fact, in the first few days of the market meltdown, Trump seemed to be getting his way. By April 4, the 10-year Treasury yield had dropped 3.86%, its first sub-3% reading since October, and a giant drop from the 4.4% level toward the end of March. Trump seemed to be reckoning that though the payoff from tariffs would take time, Americans while waiting would gain big benefits from borrowing costs that looked like a relative bargain. That scenario was short-lived; 10-year Treasury yields went on a seldom-witnessed tear starting on April 5, surging over 600 basis points to 4.5% by the morning of April 9. The news for companies mirrored the downer for consumers: Credit spreads on investment-grade corporate bonds jumped by just under 1% to 1.2% in early April, and the premium on high-yield offerings expanded by 25%, from 347 to 461 basis points. Why did yields spike so much? Because the tariff jolt freaked investors across the board. Overnight, foreign participants in particular reckoned that America had suddenly careened from a welcoming (and historically highly-enriching) venue for parking their funds, to hostile territory. As John Cochrane, an economist at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, put it to me: 'Do U.S. government bonds look like a better or worse place to invest your money than a month ago?' Foreign institutions, individuals, and sovereign funds own a staggering $10 trillion, or roughly 33% of all U.S. Treasuries. The U.S. is highly dependent on their conviction that America is the world's best place for their savings. Arnott of Research Affiliates is particularly concerned about China's potential power in our financial markets, courtesy of its huge holdings of U.S. Treasuries. If they are big sellers, bond prices will tank, and yields (which move inversely to prices) will spike, a sure way to get under Trump's skin. 'I think the Chinese government has read The Art of War, which has been Trump's bible for life,' Arnott says. 'Gosh, you don't think someone would want to play that card, do you?' And all foreign investors are worried about the potential for an inflationary wave that will erase the 'real' value of the stream of interest payments to come—payments that, when they buy 10-year Treasuries, are constant and locked in for a decade. 'Prices will go way up for imported goods at places like Walmart,' explains Cochrane. 'Then, inflation will rise, and the question is whether the Fed will put its foot on the gas [through money printing], tighten by boosting rates, or just sit there and watch.' He predicts the 'just sit there' scenario. If that's the outcome, inflation will keep raging as the Fed watches; Cochrane sees a future where the consumer price index is jumping at an 8% or a 9% clip. Interest rates will spike, and Trump's beloved measure—yields on the 10-year—will keep climbing on fears that the Fed can't do the job and that inflation could get even worse. The danger is much higher for the borrowing corporate America relies on for building plants and fabs. 'If the rates on corporate bonds keep rising [so that interest payments sap their earnings], and companies can't import cheap goods from China, a lot of businesses will go under,' says Cochrane. That prospect is already causing both foreign and domestic investors to demand higher rates on corporates—a shift that could build on itself as fear of failures triggers higher rates that in turn mint more bankruptcies. And while the stock market loved the Trump 'pause,' what's most telling is the effect on the 10-year yield that so obsesses Trump. To be sure, it moved in the right direction, falling about eight basis points following Trump's announcement to 4.34%. But that's hardly a signal that investors now believe that Big Inflation has receded as a threat, or that the U.S. suddenly reverted to a cuddly home for foreign money. Instead, far too much of Trump's original plan remains in place to comfort the worried. They're highly troubled that he's raised tariffs on China to a trade-crunching 125% and that he's still imposing a uniform duty of 10% on all our trading partners. That blanket tariff is less than half the over 25% average Trump was poised to uncork. But it's still four times the figure before Trump launched his offensive. What remains constant is Trump's apparent quest for turning America into a far more protectionist, walled-off economy than it's been in many decades. The pause has the bond vigilantes pausing as well. If Trump returns to his original agenda, or even if he sticks to his version of 'tariffs-light,' those marauders may return with a vengeance. This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
etf.com Announces Nominees for 2025 Awards
is pleased to announce the short list of nominations for the 2025 Awards. These funds, issuers, providers, and esteemed ETF professionals were selected from hundreds of submissions received across 18 categories. Each nominee underwent a thorough vetting process before being presented to the seven-judge panel. All judges were carefully chosen and represent a diverse array of expertise and perspectives within the ETF industry. Award winners will be announced at the in-person Awards gala on April 23, 2024, at Tribeca Rooftop in New York City. This past year the exchange-traded fund industry saw record inflows, surpassing the previous record-breaking year. Actively managed ETFs continued to gain strong momentum and, after years of speculation, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot bitcoin and spot ether ETFs, marking significant milestones in the cryptocurrency and ETF industries. This year's Awards saw significant interest and submissions around some of the newly introduced categories, including Crypto ETP of the Year, Active ETF of the Year, and Best Service Provider. Bob Pisani, Senior Markets Correspondent, CNBC Rob Arnott, Partner, Chairman, Research Affiliates Joanna Gallegos, Co-founder & CEO, BondBloxx Bruce Bond, Co-founder & CEO, Innovator Capital Management George Milling-Stanley, Chief Gold Strategist, State Street Global Advisors GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) Texas Capital Government Money Market ETF (MMKT) VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) YieldMax MSTR Option Income Strategy ETF (MSTY) Astoria US Quality Kings ETF (ROE) Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Core Premium Income ETF - SC - United States (GPIX) Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) Strive Enhance Income Short Maturity ETF (BUXX) Vanguard Core Bond ETF (VCRB) Virtus Reaves Utilities ETF (UTES) BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) Calamos Laddered S&P 500 Structured Alt Protection ETF (CPSL) Fidelity Yield Enhanced Equity ETF (FYEE) NEOS Nasdaq-100 High Income ETF (QQQI) Roundhill S&P 500 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF (XDTE) Vanguard Core Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VCRM) iShares U.S. Manufacturing ETF (MADE) Pacer US Cash Cows Bond ETF (MILK) Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) Roundhill GLP-1 and Weight Loss ETF (OZEM) VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) AB Short Duration High Yield ETF (SYFI) BondBloxx Private Credit CLO ETF (PCMM) Eaton Vance Floating-Rate ETF (EVLN) F/m 10-Year Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (ZTEN) Schwab Ultra-Short Income ETF (SCUS) Vanguard Core Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VCRM) Capital Group International Core Equity ETF (CGIC) Macquarie Focused Emerging Markets Equity ETF (EMEQ) Pacer Nasdaq International Patent Leaders ETF (PATN) Rayliant SMDAM Japan Equity ETF (RAYJ) WisdomTree India Hedged Equity Fund (INDH) Capital Group Conservative Equity ETF (CGCV) Eagle Capital Select Equity ETF (EAGL) Invesco QQQ Income Advantage ETF (QQA) Peerless Option Income Wheel ETF (WEEL) VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX) Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC) Roundhill Bitcoin Covered Call Strategy ETF (YBTC) SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF (BTGD) USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI) Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF (STCE) STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF (BTGD) BondBloxx JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets 1-10 Year Bond ETF (XEMD) Columbia EM Core ex-China ETF (XCEM) Invesco FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets ETF (PXH) Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) Direxion Daily Concentrated Qs Bear 1X Shares (QQQD) GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NVDL) ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) Roundhill Daily 2X Long Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGX) T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF (NVDX) Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry and Digital Economy ETF (CRPT) Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ) Invesco AI And Next Gen Software ETF (IGPT) Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NUKZ) Capital Group GraniteShares NEOS Investments Pacer ETFS Roundhill Investments State Street Global Advisors Fundstrat Capital MFS Investment Management Peerless ETFs Quantify Funds StockSnips Bloomberg Indices Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) CF Benchmarks/CME Group ICE MSCI Nasdaq Research Affiliates BTIG Craft & Capital Dechert LLP Gregory FCA Ropes & Gray LLP S&P Global Market Intelligence Tidal Financial Ultimus Fund Solutions The event would not be a success without the support and involvement of our partners and sponsors. We are pleased to thank our current sponsors, including: Vident, Invesco, Center for Research in Security Prices, MSCI, Innovator, Vanguard, and our official PR partner, Gregory FCA. Early bird tickets to attend the awards are now available! To purchase your tickets, please visit our awards page here. If you are interested in a table or sponsorship opportunity, please email marketing@ | © Copyright 2025 All rights reserved
