Latest news with #RobertFrick
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Job Openings Unexpectedly Rose In April
The job market was resilient in April, with job openings increasing to 7.4 million, beating forecaster expectations. Hiring rose to its fastest pace since May 2024 as employers added 5.6 million new employees. Several economists calibrated their enthusiasm about the surprisingly good data, and still anticipate tariffs will drag down the job market as the year goes on the job market has been full of surprises lately, and they've mostly been for the better: it turns out there were more job openings in April than forecasters had according to a report Tuesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed U.S. employers had 7.4 million job openings that month, up from 7.2 million in March. That was more than the 7.1 million openings forecasters had anticipated, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report added detail to the department's previously released jobs report, which showed job creation accelerating in April, beating forecaster expectations. In addition to showing a jump in openings, employers hired 5.6 million people, the most since May 2024. Layoffs rose to 1.8 million, the highest since last October but near a historically low report, while overall upbeat, didn't do much to change the big picture of the labor market. Despite monthly ups and downs, the overall trend has been a slowdown from the post-pandemic era, when workers were in high demand. Economists expect the recent turmoil and uncertainty introduced by President Donald Trump's tariff campaign to further reduce job creation as the year progresses.'The numbers still show a gradually slowing, but stable, jobs market," Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a commentary. "The leap in openings reflects normal noise in the numbers, not a surge in new positions, and the hiring rate increase isn't a notable improvement, as that rate remains within the recent weak range.'Many forecasters still expect a slowdown ahead."The data suggest that U.S. employers maintained at least enough confidence to keep more jobs open in April than they had in March, whether through careful planning, strong and adaptable supply chains and/or a good amount of luck," Allison Shrivastava, an economist for the hiring lab at job site Indeed. "But just because employers managed to skate through one month does not ensure they will be able to do so indefinitely, especially as uncertainty and volatility remain heightened." Read the original article on Investopedia
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Inflation Slows and Egg Prices Crack Lower in April
The cost of living may still feel high for many Americans, but April delivered some welcome relief at the breakfast table. According to new data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, egg prices dropped a staggering 12.7% last month—the sharpest monthly decline among all food categories. The broader picture on inflation is also improving. The consumer price index (CPI) rose just 0.2% for April, pushing the annual inflation rate down to 2.3%, which is its lowest level since February 2021. While the core CPI (excluding food and energy) also increased by 0.2%, the year-over-year reading held steady at 2.8%. Still, nothing dropped quite like eggs. Though prices remain up 49.3% compared to last year, reflecting the volatile swings the market has seen since 2022, this latest drop shows signs that supply chains and production levels may be stabilizing. 'Good news on inflation, and we need it,' Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told CNBC. He added that upcoming tariff changes could still impact prices across multiple categories, but for now, the relief is real. Other highlights in the April CPI report: food prices overall dipped 0.1%, used vehicle prices fell for the second straight month, and apparel saw a 0.2% decline. Energy prices rebounded with a 0.7% uptick after falling in March. Shelter costs, long a driver of inflation, continued to climb at a 0.3% pace, making up more than half of April's inflation rise. As for what's next, all eyes remain on the United States' evolving tariff strategy. With the president dialing back the most aggressive plans for now, markets are recalibrating their expectations for potential Fed rate cuts later in the year. Grocery prices showed some relief in April, with eggs leading the way—a 12.7% drop that marked the biggest decline of any food item. Good news, especially for people making omelets.
Daily Mail
03-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
First jobs report since Trump's tariffs revealed
The US jobs market just pulled off another surprise — Wall Street took notice. Employers added 177,000 jobs in April, blowing past analyst predictions of 135,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, easing fears that tariffs and sweeping federal job cuts had already begun to erode the workforce. It's the second month in a row that job growth has outpaced predictions: payrolls initially increased by 228,000 in March (it was eventually revised down to 185,000). US stock index futures extended gains after the stronger-than-expected jobs report calmed worries over the health of the labor market amid tensions of a global trade war. At 8.30am ET, futures for the Dow Jones were up 299 points, or 0.73 percent, for the S&P 500 were up 42.25 points, or 0.75 percent, and for the Nasdaq were up 139.5 points, or 0.70 percent. 'There are fears that falling consumer confidence and the volatile trade policies from the Administration could ultimately weigh on retail sales and the labor market,' Bret Kenwell, the US investment and options analyst at eToro told 'Although consumers have been shifting how they spend their money, they're still spending, and that can keep powering the US economy forward.' April's jobs numbers also extended a historic streak, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Digging deeper into April's numbers, the US saw surprising growth in several key employment sectors. Transportation and warehousing companies added 29,000 jobs last month, suggesting that companies have been stocking up before tariff impacts smack US consumers. 'Let's not fool ourselves, things are going to get worse later this year, probably later in the summer,' Robert Frick, Navy Federal Credit Union's corporate economist, told CNN. Earlier this week, the US reported its gross domestic product (GDP) ratings. They were far less rosy for the US economy. The numbers, which compares the money sloshing into and out of the US from January through March, showed the US economy contracted by 0.3 percent. Previously, the US had expanded by 2.4 percent. Want more stories like this from the Daily Mail? Visit our profile page and hit the follow button above for more of the news you need.
Daily Mail
02-05-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
BREAKING NEWS First jobs report since Trump's tariffs stuns Wall Street
America's jobs report has shocked investors. Analysts predicted 135,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.2 percent. Instead, the numbers are stronger than expected. The US jobs market grew by 177,000, while the unemployment rate kept steady. It's the second straight month of surprising jobs numbers: payrolls increased by 228,000 in March. US stock index futures extended gains after the stronger-than-expected jobs report calmed worries over the health of the labor market amid tensions of a global trade war. At 8.30am ET, futures for the Dow Jones were up 299 points, or 0.73 percent, for the S&P 500 were up 42.25 points, or 0.75 oercent, and for the Nasdaq were up 139.5 points, or 0.70 percent. Tariffs and massive federal job cuts were expected to slash jobs much further. But experts believe the numbers are about to get worse. 'Let's not fool ourselves, things are going to get worse later this year, probably later in the summer,' Robert Frick, Navy Federal Credit Union's corporate economist, told CNN.
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US job growth hasn't been this slow since Covid. Trump's policies could chill it further
It all comes down to the job market. President Donald Trump's drastic policy moves, and the twists and turns that have come alongside them, have made economic forecasting a squirrely endeavor. The sheer uncertainty of what's to come has put markets on the fritz and sent soft data (like consumer sentiment surveys) sounding alarms. Now, the hard data (tried-and-true economic metrics that are lagged for good reason) is starting to reflect some of the disarray. A tumultuous tariff program and trade war have sent recession odds higher. 'Let's not fool ourselves, things are going to get worse later this year, probably later in the summer,' Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told CNN in an interview. 'But for now, we really need to cross our fingers and hope that incomes and jobs hold up, because those are the things that will insulate us.' The engine of the US economy is the American consumer, whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. And the lifeblood of consumer spending comes from one critical source: the US labor market. And as it stands now, and as it likely stood in April, that fuel source hasn't run dry — but it very well could be starting to crack under the pressure. 'The economy appears strong in the data … job growth is continuing, the unemployment rate is at a fine level; there are no warning signs there, but I think what the data doesn't show is that the risks have increased,' Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told CNN in an interview this week. 'There's a whole lot going on, and there are a lot more and greater risks to the labor market and to the broader economy now than there were, say, three months ago.' On Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the jobs report for April, and it's expected that the US economy added 135,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate stood pat at 4.2%, according to FactSet consensus economists estimates. If April's estimates hold true, they'd mark a significant retreat from March, where preliminary estimates showed a stronger-than-anticipated net gain of 228,000 jobs. Economists expect that prior 228,000 estimate to be revised down come Friday now that more complete information is available (after all, March's report included a downward revision of 48,000 jobs to January and February combined). Through March, employment growth has averaged 152,000 jobs per month. That's the slowest first-quarter growth since 2020 (when a massive 14 million jobs were lost that March) and, before the pandemic, since 2011, BLS data shows. 'The headwinds that we were looking at before the March report are still there and almost certainly stronger now,' Dean Baker, senior economist and co-founder of the Center for Economic Policy Research, wrote in a note issued earlier this week. Tariffs were partly in place in March: It was the second month that initial tariffs on Chinese goods were in effect (20%); plus, the global 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports took effect March 12. Additionally, the Trump administration placed a hiring freeze on the federal workforce, slashed jobs across agencies and canceled massive amounts of grants and contracts. 'This has not led to any substantial uptick in unemployment claims, but surveys of both businesses and consumers have turned sharply negative in the last two months,' Baker noted. 'It is hard to believe that this has not had some impact on hiring.' Now businesses have to contend with plenty more unknowns. In April, the tariff headwinds grew stronger as Trump ramped up duties on Chinese imports to 145%; placed a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods; applied a 25% tariff on cars; and imposed — then delayed — additional, and varying 'reciprocal' duties on dozens of countries. Beyond tariffs, the federal spending cuts have continued, as have deportations and other anti-immigration actions. The latest labor turnover data released earlier this week showed that some employers are retrenching. In March, job openings sank to their lowest level since September, a time when pre-election uncertainty helped to dampen hiring plans. Some economists expect those 'holding patterns' to become even more evident in the jobs data when it's released Friday. Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon, estimates that April's job growth could be a paltry 65,000. 'Since the March jobs report, timely indicators such as initial jobless claims have not suggested a material surge in layoffs, but job cut announcements released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicate that layoffs are creeping higher as employers grow increasingly cautious about the outlook,' she wrote in a note to clients. 'Business surveys also point to deteriorating labor market trends.' The downside risks only grew in April, she added. 'The payroll survey for the jobs report was conducted the week after the April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement, when uncertainty and volatility were extremely high, which could have weighted on hiring decisions,' she wrote. 'Moreover, April is a month when seasonal factors are substantially negative, especially in services industries.' The seasonal adjustment calculations meant to counterbalance the spikes in springtime hiring could very well serve as a drag on Friday's numbers if seasonal hiring this April was depressed due to uncertainty around tariffs, she added. Though the ripple effects from tariffs and immigration-related activities could take longer to show up in the data, the federal workforce reductions already have started appearing. The sector posted job losses for two consecutive months, dropping 11,000 jobs in February and 4,000 jobs in March, BLS data shows. More losses are expected, but could be spread over many months to come: While nearly 300,000 job cuts have been announced, not all federal workers were laid off immediately, so the impact to the labor market and unemployment is going to be a slow drip. Job cuts by the government represented the largest chunk of layoffs so far this year, up 680% from the same period last year. Department of Government Efficiency-related cost-cutting led to a total of 281,452 layoffs, according to new data released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas. For the month of April, US-based employers announced plans to cut 105,441 jobs, according to the Challenger report. That's significantly higher than the 64,789 job cuts announced last April. However, a large chunk (40,000 jobs) of last month's layoff count can be attributed to plans tied to two major employers: UPS and Intel. Earlier this week, UPS said it plans to cut 20,000 jobs this year as part of a previously announced plan to increase automation and trim its Amazon business. Last week, Bloomberg reported that Intel was expected to cut 20,000 workers; however, the company has not announced specific details for potential upcoming layoffs. Cutting through the noise, there is a clear trend of economic uncertainty weighing on businesses, noted Andrew Challenger, senior vice president for the outplacement and business coaching firm. 'Though the government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month,' he said in a statement. 'Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending.' Weekly jobless claims, which are considered a proxy for layoffs, remain near pre-pandemic levels and below historic averages —despite surging uncertainty and rising numbers of layoff announcements. The initial claims data, although highly volatile and subject to revision, has risen in importance as a potential indicator for how Trump's sweeping actions — including mass layoffs of federal government workers — are filtering through the economy. Last week, the number of first-time claims jumped to their highest level since late-February. There were 241,000 initial claims for unemployment insurance filed during the week ended April 26, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That total is up 18,000 from the week before. Thursday's report also showed that people continue to stay unemployed for longer: The number of continuing claims, which are filed by Americans who have received at least a week or more of jobless benefits, climbed by 83,000 to 1.916 million, the highest level since November 2021. Health care, state and local government, leisure and hospitality: These three sectors have been the leading drivers of overall job growth in recent years. Health care should continue to lead in job gains; however, the pace is expected to slow. A downswing in state and local government hiring could be an indication of the negative ripple effects from federal spending reductions; at the same time, states and municipalities have sought out laid-off federal workers for empty roles. 'State and local government is the place where you often have safety net measures in place; so if we do go into a recession, seeing how well they're holding up in terms of employment is also useful,' said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute. In addition to the seasonal adjustment effects economist Boussour noted, slow job gains or losses in leisure and hospitality could also reflect a pullback in discretionary spending among rattled consumers. Hours worked: If the average workweek dips lower, that could be a warning signal of what could come, Gould told CNN. 'Are people getting fewer hours? Are the shifts being reduced?' she said. 'They're not letting go workers, necessarily, but maybe they're lowering [employees] hours of work.' Wage growth: The annual rate of average hourly earnings dipped to 3.8% in March from 4% in February. With more workers uncertain about their future job prospects and the overall economy, they're staying put — and less job-hopping means wage gains could continue to soften at a time when tariffs could cause prices to rise. Wage gains have normalized after a post-pandemic spike; and while the stability is in line with what the Federal Reserve hopes to see (as inflation cools), the policy climate is far different — and far more unstable — than anticipated. New data released this week showed that US workers' pay and benefits grew at their slowest pace in nearly four years during the first-quarter period when policy-related uncertainty started to weigh on hiring plans, according to new data released Wednesday. Unemployment for Black workers: 'The Trump administration has made clear that it intends to reverse all efforts at encouraging the hiring of Black workers and other minorities — not just in the federal government but in the private sector as well,' CEPR's Baker noted. 'This will almost certainly dim their employment prospects.' In March, the employment to population ratio for Black workers dropped to 58.4%, the lowest since August 2022. Monthly data is highly volatile, especially for specific metrics such as this. Construction and manufacturing: Construction has been a steady source of job growth; however, a dampening of demand coupled with rising input costs could cause that growth to falter. The same could be true for manufacturers, who could feel the pinch from costlier goods imported from abroad, said Noah Yosif, chief economist at the American Staffing Agency. This article has been updated with additional reporting.
