Latest news with #RobinArya
Mint
20-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Indian equities expected to outshine other asset classes in FY26, say smallcase Managers; poised for 12–15% returns
Despite global trade headwinds and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, equities are expected to emerge as the best-performing asset class in FY26, according to smallcase managers. Backed by attractive valuations, a resilient macroeconomic environment, and a favorable earnings trajectory, India's capital markets are projected to maintain a steady growth path, with experts anticipating Nifty 50 returns of 12–15 percent in the coming fiscal. India's equity market outlook for FY26 remains constructive, buoyed by projected GDP growth of 6.2–6.5 percent and strong domestic demand. The Nifty 50 is expected to deliver double-digit returns, supported by earnings per share (EPS) estimates of around ₹ 1,160. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have also shown renewed enthusiasm, pumping over USD 4 billion into Indian equities in recent sessions. Shailesh Saraf, smallcase Manager and Founder of Value Stocks, noted that as of May 18, 2025, a total of 878 companies had reported their Q4FY25 earnings, reflecting a 10 percent year-on-year growth. While the full-year FY25 earnings grew by only 5.79 percent—down sharply from 35.1 percent in FY24—market sentiment showed notable improvement. This was mirrored in FII net inflows of ₹ 16,757 crore in FY26 so far, along with an 8 percent return from the Nifty 50 and a 10 percent gain in the Smallcap 100 index. Meanwhile, Robin Arya, smallcase Manager and Founder of GoalFi, said a cautiously optimistic stance for FY26 is justified. According to Arya, a stable government, lower interest rate prospects, and improving corporate earnings form the bedrock of market resilience. He added that while global trade frictions and tariff risks may intermittently weigh on sentiment, sectors like banking, autos, and infrastructure continue to show solid earnings strength. Theme-based investing and earnings consolidation are likely to be prominent in the coming months. Dr. Prachi Deuskar, smallcase Manager and Co-Founder of Lotusdew, highlighted that Q4FY25 marked a turning point in domestic demand recovery, led by rural consumption, favorable crop yields, and pro-growth government measures. She observed that corporate margins expanded due to declining input costs in metals, energy, and chemicals, along with enhanced operational efficiencies. Despite some concerns such as a weakening INR and signs of urban demand fatigue, India's inflation remained largely under control, offering a stable macro backdrop. Adding to that, Dr. Deuskar suggested that long-term investors with higher risk tolerance may find strong value in high-quality small-cap stocks. FY25 Earnings Review: smallcase managers pointed out that Q4FY25 earnings exceeded expectations, aided by healthy sales and profit growth. However, the trajectory of forward earnings revisions remained mixed, as downgrades continued to outweigh upgrades, driven by subdued corporate investment momentum. Notably, the market fully recovered from its early-year decline over the last two months. Year-on-year, Nifty companies posted 9 percent growth in sales, 6 percent in EBITDA, 10 percent in PBT, and 4 percent in PAT—mostly ahead of earlier estimates. With inflation below 4 percent, real interest rates have turned significantly positive, paving the way for potential policy rate cuts. According to smallcase managers, this macro shift could support corporate investments and consumer spending, particularly benefiting the banking, real estate, and auto sectors. Equities are likely to rally further on the back of improved earnings and increased liquidity. Despite global uncertainties such as potential US tariffs and trade policy disruptions, sectors including infrastructure, BFSI (especially PSU banks), electronics and EMS, automobiles, FMCG, and renewable energy remained on the managers' radar. Meanwhile, they advised caution toward IT, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, capital goods, and real estate, which may remain under pressure due to external headwinds and valuation concerns. Defence: India's defence sector is poised for robust expansion, backed by an INR 1.8 trillion capex outlay and a USD 130 billion opportunity over FY25–29. The segment is projected to grow 7–8 percent annually, with defence electronics expected to outpace the broader industry at 10–14 percent CAGR. Private players are seen delivering 25–40 percent EPS CAGR, compared to 15–18 percent by defence PSUs. Consumer: The consumer sector is expected to bounce back in FY26 with projected earnings growth of around 13 percent. Easing input costs in the latter half of the year, a normal monsoon, rising rural wages, and possible fiscal stimuli such as the 8th Pay Commission and tax cuts are likely to support recovery. With the sector having corrected nearly 35 percent since October 2024, valuations are deemed attractive, particularly for segments like packaged foods, QSR, and personal care. Tourism and Hospitality: India's hospitality sector remains in a multi-year upcycle, propelled by strong domestic travel, mega-events, and a bustling wedding season. With limited new supply, the sector is set to deliver double-digit revenue growth in FY26, driven by India's economic momentum and demographic tailwinds. FY25 witnessed unprecedented activity in capital markets, marked by 318 IPOs, including 239 SME offerings. The trend is expected to continue in FY26, underpinned by improved market infrastructure, deepening retail participation, and robust fundamentals. Wealth management firms and asset management companies (AMCs) are expected to benefit from these dynamics. Overall, even amid global trade uncertainties and potential tariff shocks, smallcase managers maintain a positive outlook for India's equity markets in FY26. Favorable macro conditions, resilient corporate earnings, policy tailwinds, and attractive valuations create a conducive environment for equities to outperform. While selective sectoral bets will be key, the broader market narrative remains anchored in stability and sustainable growth, making FY26 a promising year for equity investors. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Economic Times
03-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
IPL Portfolio: Make consumer stocks your top-order in dream 11 team, says smallcase manager Robin Arya
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Edited excerpts from a chat on investing in IPL-style. How should investors handle the unpredictable and fast-paced bowling by Trump? While aggressive batsmen rule T20s, grounded all-rounders bring balance. Which defensive stocks bring stability amid volatility? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Which industries—tech, FMCG, bank, or EV—are leaving a huge mark like the most runaway IPL teams? Popular in Markets If markets were a T20 match, where are we in the innings currently – early overs, slog overs, or a mid-innings slowdown? Which sector (franchise) will be the biggest winner (wealth creator) this year? If you were to construct a Dream 11 portfolio today, which stocks or sectors would find a place in your team? A solid Dream 11 portfolio today needs the right balance of big hitters, reliable anchors, and all-rounders with consumer-facing sectors leading the top order, says Robin Arya smallcase Manager and Founder, decisions can shake global markets overnight—just like a surprise yorker in cricket. But as investors, we don't need to predict every ball. At GoalFi, we believe in staying prepared, not panicking. My advice: keep a solid base with steady sectors like FMCG , healthcare, and consumer goods that don't get affected easily. At the same time, have some exposure to fast-moving themes like banks and Indian manufacturing. Using GoalFi's real-time research, we track these moves closely and rebalance when needed. This way, you're not reacting to every headline—you're playing with a clear strategy. In today's markets, discipline beats markets, like in T20 cricket, you need dependable all-rounders—those who don't always hit sixes but hold the innings together. At GoalFi, we see sectors like FMCG, healthcare, and large NBFCs as the true stabilisers. These sectors are backed by steady demand, predictable earnings, and strong fundamentals. Even in choppy markets, they stay calm under pressure. Financials—especially select NBFCs—may not always be flashy, but their strong risk controls and retail lending strength make them reliable over the long term. For us, these are the middle-order players in a portfolio—balancing risk, offering stability, and setting up the innings for big finishers to come in every IPL season, a few teams dominate with clarity, consistency, and confidence. In the market right now, that role is being played by financials and consumer sectors. At GoalFi, we see private banks and NBFCs leading from the front—strong credit growth, improving asset quality, and solid demand from Bharat. Alongside, FMCG continues to deliver—urban premiumisation and rural recovery are both picking up pace. On the other hand, tech and EV-related plays are seeing mixed signals due to global uncertainty and delayed capex cycles. So while the buzz is often around the flashy themes, the real scoreboard impact is coming from sectors with deep economic linkages. In our view, that's where the smart, sustainable alpha is being now, we're in the middle overs—that phase where momentum builds quietly, and smart rotation matters more than big hits. At GoalFi, we're seeing selective optimism: macro data is steady, earnings are stabilising, and domestic demand is holding strong. But global uncertainty still keeps the big shots in check. This is not the time to swing blindly—it's the time for smart sector rotation, tight risk control, and disciplined investing. Just like a good middle-order batter, you build a base now so that when the slog overs come—maybe later this year—you're well-positioned to accelerate. That's the mindset we bring to portfolio strategy we had to pick one franchise to back for the rest of the season, it would be financials—especially NBFCs and private banks. This space is benefiting from strong credit demand, clean balance sheets, and digital transformation at scale. At GoalFi, we're also closely watching India's manufacturing and capital goods revival—a multi-year structural story gaining pace with government capex, PLI schemes, and supply chain shifts. These aren't just short-term trades—they're long innings with compounding potential. We believe sectors that serve Bharat, enable consumption, and build physical infrastructure are where the real wealth creation will happen. And we're positioning for it.A solid Dream 11 portfolio today needs the right balance of big hitters, reliable anchors, and all-rounders—just like your favourite IPL squad. At GoalFi, we'd load up with financials (both private banks and NBFCs) as our core—playing the anchor role with strong credit growth and economic linkage. Our top-order would include consumer-facing sectors—FMCG, discretionary, and retail—which are showing signs of a demand revival. For mid-overs acceleration, manufacturing and capital goods bring structural momentum. And in the slog overs, we'd keep a tactical eye on select digital and tourism themes—they may not fire every match, but can deliver match-winning returns when conditions are right. That's how we build—not just a portfolio, but a team built to play across all formats of the market.
Time of India
03-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
IPL Portfolio: Make consumer stocks your top-order in dream 11 team, says smallcase manager Robin Arya
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Edited excerpts from a chat on investing in IPL-style. How should investors handle the unpredictable and fast-paced bowling by Trump? While aggressive batsmen rule T20s, grounded all-rounders bring balance. Which defensive stocks bring stability amid volatility? Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Which industries—tech, FMCG, bank, or EV—are leaving a huge mark like the most runaway IPL teams? Popular in Markets If markets were a T20 match, where are we in the innings currently – early overs, slog overs, or a mid-innings slowdown? Which sector (franchise) will be the biggest winner (wealth creator) this year? If you were to construct a Dream 11 portfolio today, which stocks or sectors would find a place in your team? A solid Dream 11 portfolio today needs the right balance of big hitters, reliable anchors, and all-rounders with consumer-facing sectors leading the top order, says Robin Arya smallcase Manager and Founder, decisions can shake global markets overnight—just like a surprise yorker in cricket. But as investors, we don't need to predict every ball. At GoalFi, we believe in staying prepared, not panicking. My advice: keep a solid base with steady sectors like FMCG , healthcare, and consumer goods that don't get affected easily. At the same time, have some exposure to fast-moving themes like banks and Indian manufacturing. Using GoalFi's real-time research, we track these moves closely and rebalance when needed. This way, you're not reacting to every headline—you're playing with a clear strategy. In today's markets, discipline beats markets, like in T20 cricket, you need dependable all-rounders—those who don't always hit sixes but hold the innings together. At GoalFi, we see sectors like FMCG, healthcare, and large NBFCs as the true stabilisers. These sectors are backed by steady demand, predictable earnings, and strong fundamentals. Even in choppy markets, they stay calm under pressure. Financials—especially select NBFCs—may not always be flashy, but their strong risk controls and retail lending strength make them reliable over the long term. For us, these are the middle-order players in a portfolio—balancing risk, offering stability, and setting up the innings for big finishers to come in every IPL season, a few teams dominate with clarity, consistency, and confidence. In the market right now, that role is being played by financials and consumer sectors. At GoalFi, we see private banks and NBFCs leading from the front—strong credit growth, improving asset quality, and solid demand from Bharat. Alongside, FMCG continues to deliver—urban premiumisation and rural recovery are both picking up pace. On the other hand, tech and EV-related plays are seeing mixed signals due to global uncertainty and delayed capex cycles. So while the buzz is often around the flashy themes, the real scoreboard impact is coming from sectors with deep economic linkages. In our view, that's where the smart, sustainable alpha is being now, we're in the middle overs—that phase where momentum builds quietly, and smart rotation matters more than big hits. At GoalFi, we're seeing selective optimism: macro data is steady, earnings are stabilising, and domestic demand is holding strong. But global uncertainty still keeps the big shots in check. This is not the time to swing blindly—it's the time for smart sector rotation, tight risk control, and disciplined investing. Just like a good middle-order batter, you build a base now so that when the slog overs come—maybe later this year—you're well-positioned to accelerate. That's the mindset we bring to portfolio strategy we had to pick one franchise to back for the rest of the season, it would be financials—especially NBFCs and private banks. This space is benefiting from strong credit demand, clean balance sheets, and digital transformation at scale. At GoalFi, we're also closely watching India's manufacturing and capital goods revival—a multi-year structural story gaining pace with government capex, PLI schemes, and supply chain shifts. These aren't just short-term trades—they're long innings with compounding potential. We believe sectors that serve Bharat, enable consumption, and build physical infrastructure are where the real wealth creation will happen. And we're positioning for it.A solid Dream 11 portfolio today needs the right balance of big hitters, reliable anchors, and all-rounders—just like your favourite IPL squad. At GoalFi, we'd load up with financials (both private banks and NBFCs) as our core—playing the anchor role with strong credit growth and economic linkage. Our top-order would include consumer-facing sectors—FMCG, discretionary, and retail—which are showing signs of a demand revival. For mid-overs acceleration, manufacturing and capital goods bring structural momentum. And in the slog overs, we'd keep a tactical eye on select digital and tourism themes—they may not fire every match, but can deliver match-winning returns when conditions are right. That's how we build—not just a portfolio, but a team built to play across all formats of the market.
