27-05-2025
Can a great opening weekend for summer travel last?
The Brief
Domestic travel numbers were projected to be strong for the holiday weekend, but international travel has seen a considerable drop.
Projected drops in international tourism revenue are exacerbated by domestic concerns regarding the strength of the country's economy.
Tariff anger, possibilities of unfriendly treatment and a strong U.S. dollar devaluing the purchasing power of foreign currency also contribute to declines in international tourism.
OAKLAND, Calif. - Projections held that 45.1 million people in the United States were expected to drive or fly more than 50 miles from their home this Memorial Day Weekend. The final numbers are not in yet, but it may be that the actual final number of holiday voyagers exceeds that predicted figure.
It's been a very good holiday weekend for travel, but can it last?
Fewer Visitors
It was strangely quiet at Oakland International Airport on Monday, with many people having chosen to fly back Sunday or wait until later this week to make the return trip. Even though TSA screened a record 2.95 million passengers on Friday nationwide – up 6.3% from a year ago – the bigger, longer-term picture is more sobering.
In March, year over year, international arrivals were down 14%. The biggest declines were recorded among visitors from Canada, Asia, Western Europe and South America.
Fewer foreign travelers are coming to the U.S. over tariff anger; some are fearful of possible unfriendly treatment. Also, the strong U.S. dollar makes foreign currency less valuable.
The World Travel and Tourism Council reports that U.S. tourism spending is down 7% from last year, but is also a whopping 22% lower than the pre-pandemic peak in 2019. Out of 184 nations, only the U.S. is projected to see a drop in tourism dollars to the tune of $12.5 billion dollars.
That projected drop in tourism revenue is exacerbated by domestic concerns regarding the strength of the country's economy.
Economic Anxiety
Domestically, a LendingTree study found that, out of 2000 people, two-thirds of them think a recession is coming, which is a sure recipe to slow down consumer spending.
"I think there will be a recession," said Southwest passenger Rodney Bridgeman. "There's a lot of things going on in the world and the economy and the government."
Even with airfares down, many people are downsizing or eliminating travel plans.
"They will cut back quite a bit because, the thing is, people are losing jobs for one thing and the cost of things are going up, so I think they'll lose business a little bit," Bridgeman said.
More Travel Expenses
To make matters worse, on Wednesday – just in time for summer – an enormous change is coming at Southwest Airlines. The Dallas-based airline will begin charging its passengers for their checked bags, ending its longstanding free checked bags policy for most of its passengers.
It is unclear how much Southwest will charge passengers for their bags, and the new policy does not affect passengers who booked the highest levels of service – A-List and Business Select – or who have Southwest Rapid Rewards credit cards.
Still, the news of the fees comes as a disappointment to many travelers, and serves as an unwelcome discouragement at a time when international travel is already in jeopardy.
"I think they're going to lose a lot of people because now it's just like everyone else," said Southwest passenger Shelley Ross-Bell. "It doesn't matter which airline you fly on."
The Source
AAA study, LendingTree study, KTVU reporting
