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IOL News
a day ago
- Politics
- IOL News
The case of Afriforum, Ernst Roets and the Trump era
AfriForum framed its global tour as free speech, but its "white genocide" claims led to U.S. threats against South Africa—and deadly consequences in Pretoria, writes Gillian Schutte. Image: IOL AfriForum insists its trans-Atlantic charm offensive was no more than free speech dressed up in diplomatic attire. Ernst Roets toured Washington and Canberra clutching a dossier of farm-murder horror stories, selling the fable of a 'white genocide' and pleading for punitive action against his own country. He left satisfied; the Trump administration promptly threatened South Africa with sanctions, visa bans and the possible suspension of AGOA trade benefits. On Pretoria's streets the price was paid in bodies. Sanctions rarely arrive with a whistle like a bomb, yet their impact is explosive all the same. Treasury bean-counters scramble to plug the resulting hole in revenue; police salaries are delayed; overtime is cancelled. Officers facing shrinking pay-packets are quick to reach for the baton and the live round when township unrest flares. Land-rights activists—already framed by AfriForum's narrative as agents of genocide—become soft targets for 'pre-emptive' repression. A late-night knock, a shot in the dark, no warrant, no body-cam: the tell-tale pattern of extrajudicial killing the Minnesota Protocol warns about and our Constitution expressly forbids. Roets and his backers cannot pretend surprise. The scholarly record is vast and grim. Rhodesia in the 1960s, Iraq in the 1990s, Venezuela after 2017: starve a state of cash and it feeds on its own citizens. AfriForum was repeatedly warned. DIRCO briefings laid out the social cost of trade penalties; labour federations predicted blood on the shop-floor if jobs evaporated. Roets shrugged and pressed on, proclaiming that 'international force is the only option left'. That shrug is not political bluster—it is dolus eventualis, the legal heartbeat of treason. Under South African criminal law, a person acts with dolus eventualis when they foresee a forbidden outcome and embrace it as an acceptable price for their goal. AfriForum foresaw that foreign coercion would cripple the state and ratchet up violence; it welcomed the risk because the bigger the chaos, the stronger the leverage to freeze land reform. Call it by its common-law name: betraying the Republic. The usual riposte is freedom of expression. Yet the Bill of Rights draws a clear line: speech that incites imminent harm enjoys no sanctuary. Crying 'genocide' where none exists is more than hyperbole; it is a dog-whistle to foreign hawks and local vigilantes alike. One need only glance at the surge in armed 'boer protection' patrols after AfriForum's Washington jaunt to see how the narrative hardens triggers into action. There is also the convenient dodge that Washington's decision was sovereign and thus breaks any causal chain. Our courts are not so easily misled. They ask whether the outcome was a reasonable and foreseeable consequence of the accused's conduct. Sanctions in response to a choreographed moral panic? As foreseeable as sunrise. The United States even spelled out its reasoning in press releases echoing AfriForum's briefing notes almost word for word. Influence need not be decisive; it must merely be material—and the paper trail of meetings, podcasts and FARA-registered lobbying contracts more than meets that standard. Some will mutter that treason is an archaic charge, rolled out only for coup plotters in camouflage. Nonsense. Treason protects constitutional sovereignty, not party flags or presidential motorcades. When a well-funded pressure group enlists a foreign power to twist Pretoria's arm, it strikes at the very nerve centre the crime was designed to defend. The High Court confirmed as much in S v Harris (1952), convicting defendants who funnelled intelligence abroad without firing a shot. The principle is unchanged: you may criticise government, but you may not invite outsiders to batter it into submission. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. 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Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ If the National Prosecuting Authority baulks at the optics of a treason trial, it still faces the ICC Act's uncompromising reach. Aiding or abetting crimes against humanity carries universal jurisdiction, and the Rome Statute treats systematic extrajudicial killings as just that. Evidence that lobbying paved the road to lethal police raids would drag AfriForum into a courtroom whether or not the charge-sheet carries the T-word. Beyond the legal calculus lies a political imperative. South Africa's bargain of 1994 was fragile to begin with; it cannot withstand a precedent that outsources our policy debates to foreign strongmen. If AfriForum walks unscathed, every aggrieved faction will learn the lesson: skip the ballot box, shop your grievance in Washington, wait for the rands to tumble and the rubber bullets to fly. That path leads to a broken republic and a queue of grieving families outside mortuaries. Ernst Roets likes to ask who will protect his community when the state fails. The honest answer is that the state begins to fail when citizens like him decide its laws and institutions are expendable bargaining chips on Capitol Hill. Accepting foreign sanctions at the cost of South African lives is not patriotism; it is collusion. And collusion, when it endangers the very sovereignty that guarantees all our rights, crosses the line into treason. The NDPP should enrol the indictment. If it lacks the nerve, the families of those shot dead in sanctioned austerity's shadow will eventually force the issue—here or in The Hague. That day cannot come soon enough, for in a constitutional democracy the loudest defence of free expression must never drown out the quieter, irrevocable right to life. * Gillian Schutte is a South African writer, filmmaker, and critical-race scholar known for her radical critiques of neoliberalism, whiteness, and donor-driven media. Her work centres African liberation, social justice, and revolutionary thought. ** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.
The Citizen
4 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Repo rate cut offers no shelter from Budget 3.0 fallout for consumers
Thursday's repo rate cut is unlikely to bring much relief to cash-strapped consumers, as any savings will be offset by the rising fuel levy eating into their income. Although the Reserve Bank's decision to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points on Thursday is good news for economists, it will not shield South Africans from the burden of the fuel and sin tax levies introduced by Budget 3.0. Neil Roets, CEO of Debt Rescue, warns that increased taxing of the workforce is not the answer and will put further financial strain on households, driving them to new depths of despair at a time when they are buckling under the weight of multiple unsustainable inflation-related living costs. 'The reality is that the finance minister's decision to impose new tax measures will hurt lower-income families most, as they will bear a proportionally higher burden, forcing them to make impossible lifestyle choices with the little disposable income they have left.' Before the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) governor, Lesetja Kganyago, announced the repo rate cut this afternoon, economists polled by Reuters accurately predicted that the Bank would restart its repo rate cutting cycle this month, trimming the repo rate by 25 basis points to bring down the interest rate to 7.25% as the latest inflation data strengthens the case for monetary easing. ALSO READ: Reserve Bank cuts repo rate thanks to lower inflation, stronger rand Repo rate cut too small to matter for consumers 'While any cut in the repo rate benefits consumers, the change is simply not big enough to make any real difference in their lives, or to encourage growth in the economy. The impact on consumers will be minimal, as the 25 basis points cut will mean a tiny saving of R254 per month on a R1.5 million home loan and around R65 on a R500 000 car loan. 'Ultimately, a growing economy is the only solution that will slowly lift the weight of unsustainably high living costs from the shoulders of South Africans,' Roets says. Inflation currently remains outside the Sarb's target range of 3% to 6%, with the most recent data showing that consumer inflation was 2.8% in April, just slightly above March's 2.7%. However, Roets points out, inflation on food and non-alcoholic beverages was 4.0%, the highest it has been since September 2024. 'Overall, inflation is still considered low, which would have been a strong incentive to cut the current repo rate. The exchange rate of the rand also remains a key factor in economic stability and would have influenced the MPC's decision.' ALSO READ: Reserve Bank could cut repo rate on Thursday, but will it decide to? Move to lower inflation target will affect repo rate Kganyago is a longstanding advocate of shifting to a lower inflation target, arguing this would ensure South Africa is better placed to compete with its trading partners. He said earlier that a single-point target of 3% would be in line with South Africa's peers and lead to lower interest rates in the long term. However, his critics worry that reaching a lower inflation target will require tighter monetary policy that will impede growth and employment in a country with one of the highest jobless and poverty rates in the world. On Thursday, Kganyago reiterated his view, saying that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes that the 3% scenario is more attractive than the 4.5% baseline and would like to see inflation expectations move lower, towards the bottom end of their target range. He also said the MPC will consider scenarios with a 3% objective at future meetings. However, Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, warns that a lower inflation target risks scuppering further interest rate cuts this year too. 'With a change to the inflation target reportedly occurring soon this year, the Sarb has chosen to cut interest rates this month to avoid the limitation of doing so in the future but then could easily be at risk of needing to reverse the cut.' ALSO READ: Salaries decreased by 2% in April, but higher than a year ago Slow pace of repo rate cuts perpetuates debt trap Roets says the reality is that the slow pace of the country's repo rate reductions is perpetuating the debt trap that millions of ordinary South Africans find themselves in, leaving millions with no option but to survive on credit. 'This scenario has been escalating since the prolonged tightening cycle began towards the end of 2021, when the MPC raised the repo rate by a cumulative 4.75% between November 2021 and May 2023, taking it from 3.50% to 8.25%, the highest level since 2014. ' Against this backdrop, the latest Statistics SA General Household Survey, released on Tuesday this week, reveals shocking statistics about hunger in the country. According to the survey results, almost a quarter of South African households did not have enough food to eat last year. This means that around 14 million people out of South Africa's population of 63 million went hungry. Of those polled, 22.2% of households considered access to food inadequate or severely inadequate. 'South Africans need real financial relief. This is a glaring red flag that should be at the top of the list of concerns for government. Sadly, this means more and more South Africans are relying on their credit and store cards to put food on the table and keep the lights on. 'The likelihood is that they will default on debt and fall into an even deeper trap, as the cost of credit increases due to existing debt. This is most evident with big purchases like home and car loans.'
IOL News
13-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Experts remain divided on potential interest rate cut as consumer inflation falls to 2. 7%
Economists and debt experts have mixed feelings if there will be an interest rate cut later this month when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to make its decision on interest rates. As South African households continue to grapple with relentless financial pressure, the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting has sparked intense debate on whether the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) will implement an interest rate cut. With inflation plummeting to 2.7% in March—its lowest point since 2020—economists and debt experts find themselves at a crossroads, oscillating between cautious optimism and prudent scepticism. Neil Roets, CEO of Debt Rescue, on Monday acknowledged the necessity for an open dialogue regarding possible interest rate reductions. 'While we welcome the conversation—and any form of relief—we remain deeply concerned about the unrelenting financial pressure facing South African consumers,' he said. Roets highlighted the paradox of low inflation against the backdrop of a soaring repo rate, which stands at 7.5%. In his view, even if the Sarb were to enact a reduction of 25 or 50 basis points, it would barely alleviate the ongoing cost-of-living crisis experienced across the nation. He said consumers were buckling under the weight of rising food prices, yet another electricity price hike in April, and unaffordable debt repayments. 'Our April 2025 survey confirmed that more South Africans are relying on short-term credit just to survive. The need for relief is urgent. While we understand the Sarb's cautious, data-dependent approach—especially amid global uncertainty—this cannot come at the expense of people's basic survival,' he said. Roets added that monetary policy alone won't fix everything, but decisive action would help ease the debt burden and inject desperately needed confidence back into the economy. Benay Sager, executive head of DebtBusters, expressed optimism about the conditions that might permit a rate cut. However, he shares a belief that the Sarb will ultimately opt for caution, likely maintaining the current rate. 'If the interest rate does change downwards, it will be good for consumers as it will allow a bit more breathing room. If it stays the same, our recommendation to consumers would be to continue servicing their debt and payments, and to continue to look for ways to stretch their money as much as possible,' he said. 'If it stays the same, we think it would be driven mostly by global macroeconomic situations, as opposed to anything happening locally in South Africa.' Despite mixed sentiments, some analysts are holding out hope for a relief measure. Economist Casey Sprake from Anchor Capital said that falling oil prices—thanks to OPEC increasing production—could trigger a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the imminent MPC meeting. 'While the next move by the cartel remains difficult to predict, the current lower oil price environment is clearly beneficial for South Africa. Given oil's significant weighting in the inflation basket, we expect headline inflation to remain subdued in the near term, providing some breathing room for monetary policy,' Sprake said. 'As a result, we anticipate a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in late May, followed by an additional cut at the subsequent meeting. However, from July onwards, we expect inflation to begin edging higher again, largely due to base effects.' Sprake said the potential for more aggressive easing by major central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, increased the likelihood that South Africa may be compelled to follow suit—especially in a scenario of weakening global growth and heightened capital flow volatility. 'Should this unfold, it would raise the probability of a deeper and earlier rate-cutting cycle from the Sarb,' she said Visit:
IOL News
11-05-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Will the fuel cut really make a difference in the lives of SA consumers?
Food basket. The past few months have been among the toughest yet for citizens from all walks of life and the tiny petrol price cut announced by the DMRE will make no discernible difference in the lives of consumers who are still facing prices above R20,00 per litre at the pumps. Image: Independent Newspapers The pain continues for millions of South Africans who have battled their way through the past year, despite the cost-of-living crisis that has all but decimated household budgets across income groups, with no easing up of their financial burden on any front whatsoever. 'The past few months have been among the toughest yet for citizens from all walks of life and the tiny petrol price cut announced by the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources (DMRE) this week will make no discernible difference in the lives of consumers who are still facing prices above R20,00 per litre at the pumps. In addition, rocketing food prices and unsustainably high interest rates keep them locked into a debt cycle that they cannot escape,' CEO of Debt Rescue Neil Roets said. This past week the DMRE published the official fuel price adjustments that took effect on Wednesday, 7 May, announcing a cut in the price of petrol of 22 cents per litre for 93 and 95 petrol, respectively and between 41 and 42 cents per litre for diesel. This was largely due to steep declines in global oil prices in April as markets got rattled by US President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade wars, while the rand weakened slightly amid the shocks. The average Brent crude oil price declined from $71.04 to $66.40 over the month, and the average international product prices for petrol, diesel and illuminated paraffin decreased during the period under review. 'While any financial relief is obviously welcome, authorities need to recognise that South Africans are at breaking point right now under the combined onslaught of food prices that have increased far above the inflation rate, interest rates that are still among the highest they have been in a decade and the relentless financial onslaught from Eskom for an essential service that impacts the survival of every man, woman and child,' Roets told Business Report. The price of food is unsurprisingly at the top of the list of concerns for the majority of households across the nation, not least because recent price increases for basic foodstuffs now place nutritional meals out of reach, especially among lower-income families. While the latest inflation data for South Africa showed an easing, food prices in the country saw a sharp increase. The April 2025 Household Affordability Index, confirmed the daily reality facing people today: the cost of survival is rising faster than people can keep up. 'The figures in the April 2025 Household Affordability Index, released by the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity Group (PMBEJD) , reflect a brutal truth—millions of South Africans are no longer coping,' Roets said. Aliya Chikte, project officer at the Alternative Information and Development Centre (AIDC) said that although food inflation is slowing down, the average cost of a household food basket is unaffordable in the context of mass unemployment and deep impoverishment. The latest PMBEJD report shows that the average household food basket, catering for a family of four, now costs R5 420.30, but a nutritionally adequate food basket is priced at R6 666.26. That's a shortfall of R1 245.96, a gap that low-income households simply cannot close through income alone. This means that workers earning the National Minimum Wage are R2 000 short on food after covering just electricity and transport, leaving only R453.28 per person per month for food, far below the Food Poverty Line of R796. The effect of VAT on the household food basket is significant, with 22 of the 44 food items in the total household food basket subject to VAT. Food items subject to VAT made up 46% of the total cost of the household food basket in April. With zero-rated food items costing R2 929.32 and foods subject to VAT R2 490.97, VAT on the total household food basket amounted to R324.91. 'This means that 6.0% of the household food basket was made up of VAT. This is money that could be used to buy more food,' Roets said. "Added to this is the sad fact that hard-working taxpayers will ultimately pay for any mistakes made by the government. When the Western Cape High Court stopped the tabled VAT hike, it passed the legal costs on to Treasury and Parliament. This means that taxpayers will end up footing this bill. Exactly how much remains to be seen, but it is likely to run into hundreds of thousands of rands," Roets said. The latest BankservAfrica Take-Home Pay Index showed that nominal average take-home pay declined to 17,811 in March 2025, 2.5% lower compared to February's R18,272, due to intensifying economic headwinds both locally and globally that continue to pressure growth prospects and confidence levels. This raises concerns over potential impacts on employment and earnings in the coming months despite the upward year-on-year momentum.
IOL News
28-04-2025
- Business
- IOL News
South African households still under pressure despite inflation dropping to 5-year low
Experts believe that an inflation drop of 0.5% to 2.7% in March, bringing inflation to its lowest level in five years, is good news, but consumers remain under pressure due to rising costs. South Africa's consumers received a sliver of hope this week as Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) announced a significant drop in inflation from 3.2% to 2.7% in March, marking the lowest level seen in five years. While this decline was seen as a promising development, experts warned that many households were still grappling with rising costs that continue to exert pressure on their budgets. Neil Roets, CEO of Debt Rescue, welcomed the news, suggesting it might bolster the case for a potential interest rate cut. 'This brings a glimmer of hope to struggling South African households and strengthens the case for a potential interest rate cut. Lower inflation reduces pressure on the Reserve Bank, and while a cautious approach is likely, we're hopeful that rate relief will come before the end of the year,' he said. Roets added that although this was encouraging, they remained concerned particularly as essential goods were not becoming more affordable. 'Food prices, especially staples like maize meal and tea, remain stubbornly high. Fuel costs may have eased, but households are not feeling a meaningful difference in their monthly budgets. Consumers are still overextended, caught between rising electricity costs, expensive essential groceries, and stagnant incomes.' Consumers are still overextended, caught between rising electricity costs, expensive essential groceries, and stagnant incomes. It is believed that lower inflation, without corresponding relief in core living expenses, does little to improve day-to-day affordability. Roets added that Debt Rescue continues to call on policymakers to prioritise job creation and bring down interest rates to ease the pressure on struggling households. Benay Sager, executive head of DebtBusters, said they hoped the decline in consumer prices will factor into the SA Reserve Bank's consideration when make a decision on the repo rate interest rates. 'We hope it will allow the Reserve Bank to lower the interest rates and provide more relief for consumers,' Sager said. 'We know they will also try to balance this data with other macro information based on global indicators, so if next month is also low interest rates, we believe there is a very strong position to make an argument for interest rate reductions at the end of May, which would be great for consumers.' Sager said he did not believe that this will impact the economy just yet. 'Most of our inflation is due to regulated prices of electricity and petrol have been coming down, which is one of the primary reasons for this reduction,' he said. 'However, electricity prices are flat throughout the year until the 1st of April, so often those increases from Eskom kick in during April, or if you are a municipal customer, in July and only then do we see the primary impact on inflation.' Casey Sprake, an economist at Anchor Capital, said the Sarb's Monetary Pociy Committee now faced a nuanced dilemma—one rooted less in macroeconomic constraint and more in policy discretion. 'Real policy rates in SA remain in restrictive territory, meaning that current monetary policy is exerting a significant dampening effect on economic activity. This creates a window for the MPC to adopt a less restrictive stance, should it choose to do so.' Sprake added that the Sarb has consistently underscored its commitment to anchoring inflation expectations and preserving financial stability, especially in a context of currency volatility. 'Additionally, the uncertain global environment, marked by tightening geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary paths across major central banks, continues to inject caution into the MPC's decision-making process.' Sprake said that while the March inflation data validated the Sarb's prior caution and suggested that monetary tightening has been effective, the threshold for cutting interest rates below its estimated neutral level, where policy neither stimulates nor restrains inflation and growth, remains high. 'We maintain our outlook that the Sarb will eventually lower the repo rate to this neutral level, but the exact timing remains uncertain given prevailing uncertainty,' she said. BUSINESS REPORT
