Latest news with #RohitGarg
Business Times
22-07-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Rupiah to consolidate before further gains, Citi strategist says
[JAKARTA] The Indonesian rupiah's recent gains are set to pause in the coming month before advancing to levels last seen in December, according to the currency's top forecaster. Emerging-market currencies, especially those that are high-yielding, tend to weaken for various reasons in August, said Rohit Garg, head of foreign exchange and rates strategy Asia ex-Japan for Citigroup. By the end of the year, the strategist forecasts the rupiah to rally almost 2 per cent against the US dollar. 'Right now our recommendation is to stay neutral, see what happens on Aug 1 and see how the month evolves,' said Garg, referring to US President Donald Trump's tariff deadline. 'But we are still looking at a little bit of a lower USD/IDR, closer to 16,000 than higher.' The rupiah closed at 16,311 per US dollar on Monday (Jul 21). The rupiah is rebounding from earlier losses in the year as concerns over a global trade war and Indonesia's fiscal policy ease. Pledges to cap the nation's budget deficit below 3 per cent of gross domestic product and plans to tap cash reserves to cover shortfalls this year have helped calm investor nerves, Garg said. The rupiah has also been benefiting from US dollar weakness, driven by Trump-era trade tariffs and growing US fiscal deficits. Potentially softer data, especially in the labour market this summer, will boost expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the 'de-dollarisation' theme is likely to persist, the strategist said. 'We have been long rupiah, short US dollar since the middle of April,' said Garg. 'We were expecting rupiah to appreciate a fair bit and it has, but we are expecting USD/IDR to stabilise at least for the next few weeks. And it's mostly got to do with external factors than necessarily domestic factors.' Garg was the top forecaster for the rupiah in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The ranking is based on criteria such as margin of error, timing and directional accuracy. BLOOMBERG
Mint
22-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Rupiah to Consolidate Before Further Gains, Citi Strategist Says
(Bloomberg) -- The Indonesian rupiah's recent gains are set to pause in the coming month before advancing to levels last seen in December, according to the currency's top forecaster. Emerging-market currencies, especially those that are high-yielding, tend to weaken for various reasons in August, said Rohit Garg, head of foreign exchange and rates strategy Asia ex-Japan for Citigroup Inc. By the end of the year, the strategist forecasts the rupiah to rally almost 2% against the dollar. 'Right now our recommendation is to stay neutral, see what happens on Aug. 1 and see how the month evolves,' said Garg, referring to US President Donald Trump's tariff deadline. 'But we are still looking at a little bit of a lower USD/IDR, closer to 16,000 than higher.' The rupiah closed at 16,311 per dollar on Monday. The rupiah is rebounding from earlier losses in the year as concerns over a global trade war and Indonesia's fiscal policy ease. Pledges to cap the nation's budget deficit below 3% of gross domestic product and plans to tap cash reserves to cover shortfalls this year have helped calm investor nerves, Garg said. The rupiah has also been benefiting from dollar weakness, driven by Trump-era trade tariffs and growing US fiscal deficits. Potentially softer data — especially in the labor market this summer — will boost expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the 'de-dollarization' theme is likely to persist, the strategist said. 'We have been long rupiah, short dollar since the middle of April,' said Garg. 'We were expecting rupiah to appreciate a fair bit and it has, but we are expecting USD/IDR to stabilize at least for the next few weeks. And it's mostly got to do with external factors than necessarily domestic factors.' Garg was the top forecaster for the rupiah in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The ranking is based on criteria such as margin of error, timing and directional accuracy. More stories like this are available on
Malaysian Reserve
17-07-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
Emerging Asian bonds gain appeal as US tariffs cool inflation
DEMAND for emerging Asia's local bonds may improve along with the regional inflation outlook, as US tariffs prompt manufacturers to look for customers closer to home. Focusing more on local production could contain inflationary pressures. That also comes at a time when the region's long-dated yields — adjusted for inflation — are above historical averages, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Attractive valuations and subdued inflation are likely to boost the appeal of Asian fixed income. 'Higher US tariffs will weaken export demand in EM Asia, leading to a shift in production for local markets instead, as the increase in the domestic supply of goods will keep local inflation in check,' according to Yifei Ding, a portfolio manager at Invesco Hong Kong Ltd. 'This will make EM Asia bonds more attractive' for domestic fixed-income investors. Easing domestic inflation may be a silver lining amid the whiplash of on-again, off-again US tariffs, as regional governments scramble to close trade deals with the US to protect their export-dependent economies. The outlook for domestic inflation will also depend on whether officials increase fiscal stimulus — and on the dollar's trajectory. At this point, regional price pressures remain manageable. They're within the price targets for Bank Indonesia and Reserve Bank of India, and below target for the Bank of Thailand, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the People's Bank of China. Inflation readings within the target ranges have fueled expectations that central banks across the region may either cut interest rates or maintain them. Several rate cuts this year in the region have helped pulled down nominal yields. However, debt from those countries is more appealing than usual. The Philippines 10-year yield, adjusted for the most recent inflation print, is 2.1 standard deviations above the five-year average. The same gauge for India is at 2.5, and Malaysia, Thailand and South Korea are around 0.60. 'EM Asia inflation being very subdued keeps valuations on a real basis attractive' in government bonds, said Rohit Garg, head of foreign-exchange and rates strategy Asia ex-Japan for Citigroup Inc. –BLOOMBERG
Economic Times
28-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
India bonds are a buy for Citi on diverging rates policy with US
Citigroup anticipates a continued rally in Indian bonds, driven by deeper interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, potentially reaching 5%. This diverges from the US Federal Reserve's stance, weakening the traditional link between Indian bonds and US Treasuries. Aberdeen Investments echoes this view, predicting further rate cuts amid easing inflation and potentially lower oil prices. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The rally in Indian bonds is set to extend as the nation embarks on deeper interest-rate cuts, diverging from the US, according to Citigroup Reserve Bank of India may cut interest rates by 100 basis points to a three-year low of 5% after two consecutive reductions this year, said Rohit Garg, head of foreign-exchange and rates strategy Asia ex-Japan. Aberdeen Investments sees a similar in contrast to the Federal Reserve's pause on rates and outlook that it's not in a hurry to slash further — and the divergence means investors' outlook for Indian bonds in terms of their spread over US Treasuries is changing, Garg said. For years, local bonds have largely moved in tandem with swings in Treasuries, with the returns over the world's safest debt serving as a key barometer for overseas link seems to be weakening now, as Indian bonds rallied amid a selloff in their US counterparts, sending the yield gap to a 20-year low.'We are in a bit of a structural change wherein the need for us to actually see Indian bonds as a spread to US Treasuries should be declining because monetary policies are diverging,' said yields on 10-year bond has declined by more than 30 basis points since the start of the fiscal year on April 1. In contrast, that on similar-maturity US note has climbed by 27 points as President Donald Trump's tariffs fueled inflation divergence is likely to sustain, 'which means that we should be looking at Indian bonds from the context of where monetary policy in India is, where can it go,' said Garg. He expects the 10-year yield to fall to 6% in the next three months, from 6.25% on Investments is also predicting 100 basis points of rate cuts in the current cycle on easing inflation. That may push yields down to 5.5% 'should it coincide with faltering global growth and lower oil prices,' said Kenneth Akintewe, head of Asia sovereign debt at didn't give a specific time frame for his rate call, but by one comparison, economists surveyed by Bloomberg see India's repurchase rate falling to an average of 5.40% by March 2026. Citi 's analysts including Garg had predicted an end to peak dollar strength against Asian currencies in early March. Since then, the dollar has weakened and 'all Asian central banks are looking at monetary policies that are a lot more dominated by their own domestic needs as compared to trying to preserve external stability,' Singapore-based Garg said.
Time of India
28-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
India bonds are a buy for Citi on diverging rates policy with US
The rally in Indian bonds is set to extend as the nation embarks on deeper interest-rate cuts, diverging from the US, according to Citigroup Inc. The Reserve Bank of India may cut interest rates by 100 basis points to a three-year low of 5% after two consecutive reductions this year, said Rohit Garg, head of foreign-exchange and rates strategy Asia ex-Japan. Aberdeen Investments sees a similar trend. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Lifetime Office 2024 License for Mumbai [Order] prime software Undo That's in contrast to the Federal Reserve's pause on rates and outlook that it's not in a hurry to slash further — and the divergence means investors' outlook for Indian bonds in terms of their spread over US Treasuries is changing, Garg said. For years, local bonds have largely moved in tandem with swings in Treasuries, with the returns over the world's safest debt serving as a key barometer for overseas investors. Bonds Corner Powered By India bonds are a buy for Citi on diverging rates policy with US Citigroup anticipates a continued rally in Indian bonds, driven by deeper interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, potentially reaching 5%. This diverges from the US Federal Reserve's stance, weakening the traditional link between Indian bonds and US Treasuries. Aberdeen Investments echoes this view, predicting further rate cuts amid easing inflation and potentially lower oil prices. US treasury yields dip on Japan's likely bond shift Japan's super-long bond yields fall sharply after heavy sell-off Beyond credit ratings: Building a more multifaceted framework for assessing risk in alternative debt markets How will RBI's Rs 2.69 lakh crore dividend impact bond yields? Browse all Bonds News with That link seems to be weakening now, as Indian bonds rallied amid a selloff in their US counterparts, sending the yield gap to a 20-year low. 'We are in a bit of a structural change wherein the need for us to actually see Indian bonds as a spread to US Treasuries should be declining because monetary policies are diverging,' said Garg. Live Events Bloomberg The yields on 10-year bond has declined by more than 30 basis points since the start of the fiscal year on April 1. In contrast, that on similar-maturity US note has climbed by 27 points as President Donald Trump's tariffs fueled inflation worries. The divergence is likely to sustain, 'which means that we should be looking at Indian bonds from the context of where monetary policy in India is, where can it go,' said Garg. He expects the 10-year yield to fall to 6% in the next three months, from 6.25% on Tuesday. Aberdeen Investments is also predicting 100 basis points of rate cuts in the current cycle on easing inflation. That may push yields down to 5.5% 'should it coincide with faltering global growth and lower oil prices,' said Kenneth Akintewe, head of Asia sovereign debt at Aberdeen. Garg didn't give a specific time frame for his rate call, but by one comparison, economists surveyed by Bloomberg see India's repurchase rate falling to an average of 5.40% by March 2026. Citi 's analysts including Garg had predicted an end to peak dollar strength against Asian currencies in early March. Since then, the dollar has weakened sharply. RBI and 'all Asian central banks are looking at monetary policies that are a lot more dominated by their own domestic needs as compared to trying to preserve external stability,' Singapore-based Garg said.
