Latest news with #RomanianLeu
Reuters
20-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Romanian leu falls back as central bank keeps rate cut in view
WARSAW, May 20 (Reuters) - The Romanian leu pulled back on Tuesday, halting a post-election rally as the central bank said a rate cut could still come later this year. By 0945 GMT the Romanian leu had dropped 0.9% against the euro to 5.0844, giving back most of the gains it clawed back after Sunday's surprise presidential election victory of centrist Nicusor Dan over a hard-right rival. Romanian central bank Governor Mugur Isarescu on Tuesday, speaking for the first time since the leu fell to record lows in the election run-up, said the bank could discuss interest rate moves once the perception of the country's markets improves and capital that left returns. Conditions were being created for a rate cut in the second half of 2025, he said, with inflation seen coming down. The leu retreated with the comments - while domestic bond yields were a touch lower - highlighting market fragility in Romania where the next president still must find a new prime minister and install a government that can tackle Europe's biggest fiscal deficit. "For sure, markets were pleased by the win of centrist candidate Dan but investors are very well aware of the fact that a lot of has to be done in terms of correction of notorious imbalances," Generali Investments CEE analyst Jakub Kratky said. "That said, any news like a dovish comment or reminder made by Isarescu could change the tide pretty swiftly." Markets had fallen earlier in May when nationalist George Simion had a strong first-round showing, raising worry over shifting policies that would add fiscal pressure and put Romania's rating at risk. The central bank intervened with "large sums" the day after the first round, according to Isarescu, but could not protect the leu for falling past 5 per euro for the first time ever. Isarescu said the market had "underestimated" how much central bank had spent to defend the leu, which shed as much as 3% and is still down around 2% since before the election. In Poland, which held the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, the zloty edged 0.1% higher to 4.2440 per euro, remaining within the range it has largely been trading in since mid-May. Sunday's voting result pits a liberal candidate from Poland's main ruling party (KO) against a conservative contender backed by the former ruling party (PiS) in a run-off on June 1, which will keep markets on edge. In Hungary, the forint eased 0.2% to 402.40 per euro, pulling back from its strongest standing since early April, hit on Monday, and returning to the level it ended the previous week. Elsewhere the Czech crown was flat at 24.9030 per euro.
Reuters
06-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
JPMorgan goes long euro vs Romanian leu in FX spot market
LONDON, May 6 (Reuters) - Wall Street bank JPMorgan said on Tuesday it was going long on the euro versus the Romanian leu in FX spot markets, with the country's intervention policy seemingly shifting after Sunday's first-round presidential election. . The bank said that the leu's movements following the win of George Simion, the country's hard-right eurosceptic opposition leader, in the first round of Romania's presidential election re-run on Sunday raised the chances of a devaluation. In a recent note, the bank had sketched out scenarios including a 3-5% devaluation and a 15-20% devaluation. "We would argue for a 50/50 probabilities between the two devaluation scenarios but the developments on the ground will matter hugely as well," JPMorgan's Anezka Christovova said in a note to clients. However, Christovova said that a different second round outcome of the presidential elections or a change in Simion's rhetoric would alter these probabilities. " long EURRON spot (assuming daily rolling of funding) aiming initially for a 5% total move from pre-intervention levels."
