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Globe and Mail
18-07-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
Rosenberg Research: The investor's guide to AI - and how to profit from its next chapter
Globe editors have posted this research report with permission of Rosenberg Research. This should not be construed as an endorsement of the report's recommendations. For more on The Globe's disclaimers please read here. The following is excerpted from the report: In this Special Report, we identify and wade through the far-reaching impacts that Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) will exert across the overall economy, a wide swath of industries, and various asset classes. As well, we discuss investing opportunities and potential risks. An appendix on A.I. models, technologies, and infrastructure is included at the end for interested readers. There are, indeed, many risks to contemplate. But so long as they can be identified, they won't end up falling in the Rumsfeldian bucket of 'unknown unknowns' — rather, they become calculated risks that can be priced out before any investment decisions are made. Risks must always be calculated, not avoided — especially in the realm of generative A.I. with all its complexities and ramifications across the markets, economy, and society at large. This is otherwise known as risk management, and that is a key aspect addressed in this report. Knowledge, after all, is power, and this report serves as a guide for making educated and well-informed decisions. Yet, as extensive as it is, the topics covered are by no means exhaustive, and we welcome any thoughts or suggestions from our readership regarding further development of the storyline. Overall, it appears to be full steam ahead for investors with long time horizons. With 'The Next Generation' being the central thesis, how apropos to quote the great Captain Picard: 'Engage!' Those investors who missed out on the first chapter of this A.I. story will be comforted to know that many more chapters are on the way, and they can look forward to more significant opportunities ahead. The multiplier effects from the steam engine, the cotton gin, the railway, electricity, automobiles, and the internet lasted many years and spawned numerous profitable investments. Read the full report here. To request a subscription to Rosenberg Research, fill out this form
Time of India
07-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Bitcoin price today drops big. Check Cryptocurrency price prediction, target
Bitcoin price today fell by 0.60 per cent to $108,210. The largest and the most popular cryptocurrency is moving in tandem with risk assets like the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The recent all‑time highs in equities prompted traders to cash out, which also pressured Bitcoin. This comes as New U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission guidance on disclosure requirements for exchange-traded products tied to cryptocurrencies marked the first step toward approval of dozens of applications for ETFs linked to everything from Solana and XRP to President Donald Trump's eponymous meme coin. The 12-page document is the first part of the new landscape for crypto funds that SEC staff members are designing. Asset managers also anticipate guidance from the SEC's division of trading and markets on ways to streamline the application process, said people familiar with the discussions. This should accelerate the pace for new product debuts. Bitcoin Price Prediction Bitcoin's dip today is being driven by a mix of profit-taking, risk-off macro sentiment linked to trade/policy tensions, and volatility through liquidations. It's not a structural breakdown—just a classic market cooldown. If broader markets stabilize or sentiment shifts back toward risk, Bitcoin may rally again. Conversely, global uncertainties could prolong the downswing. Heightened uncertainty—partly from trade tensions and hawkish commentary from the Fed—has triggered a broad risk-off shift. This environment is unfavorable for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Sharp drops have triggered leveraged long liquidations, adding downward momentum in the crypto markets. Today's movement (~–0.6 per cent) reflects typical retracement after recent gains. Long-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic, supported by structural drivers like ETF inflows and halving-induced supply constraints. $106K–$107K remain key levels to hold. A bounce here could signal renewed interest. If stocks recover or tariffs ease, Bitcoin may follow. Conversely, more risk-off signals could deepen the dip. Live Events Bitcoin Price Target Bitcoin faces key resistance at ~$114K; a breakout above this could pave the way to ~$143K—a ~25 per cent rally—according to Ed Campbell of Rosenberg Research. Around $106K–$107K; Bitcoin price staying above this could signal continuation of bullish momentum. FAQs Q1. What is current Bitcoin price? A1. Bitcoin price today fell by 0.60 per cent to $108,210. Q2. What is Bitcoin price target? A2. Bitcoin faces key resistance at ~$114K; a breakout above this could pave the way to ~$143K—a ~25 per cent rally—according to Ed Campbell of Rosenberg Research. Around $106K–$107K; Bitcoin price staying above this could signal continuation of bullish momentum.
Business Insider
02-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
3 bearish market veterans explain why the S&P's latest highs could be short-lived
The S&P 500 has rebounded to record levels as investors cheer a brighter horizon. Some market watchers say the rally in stocks could stall as a recession and other risks loom. David Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, and Steve Hanke are all skeptical of the bounce in stocks. Relieved investors have fueled a record-breaking rally for the S&P 500 and are betting on further gains. They could be left disappointed, veteran market watchers say. The benchmark US stock index plunged nearly 19% to below 5,000 points between February 19 and April 8 as President Donald Trump 's tariff threats stoked fears of a trade war and recession. The S&P has rallied about 24% from that trough to fresh highs of around 6,200 points this week, marking a roughly $10 trillion increase in market value within three months. The comeback reflects investors " pricing out bad news," David Rosenberg, the founder and president of Rosenberg Research, said in a client note on Monday. The risks of a "global trade war, World War III coming out of the Middle East, or falling off the fiscal cliff in 2026 all appear to have been resolved," he wrote, referring to the Trump administration striking trade deals, Iran and Israel reaching a tentative ceasefire, and Trump's "big, beautiful bill," which the Senate passed Tuesday. However, in an X post last week, the former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch underscored just how ebullient investors are by ticking off the many assumptions being priced into stocks: What is Mr. Market signaling? 1. Zero chance of recession. 2. No tariff damage; more reprieves at a minimum. 3. Peace in the Middle East. 4. Passage of the big beautiful bill. 5. Fed to start cutting right away and a go-for-growth Powell replacement ahead. 6. That equities… — David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) June 26, 2025 Rosenberg outlined in his Monday note some of the reasons he's wary of the resurgence in stocks. The S&P's forward price-to-earnings multiple has expanded by four points in three months, which has only happened 0.3% of the time since 1990. At 22, it's about 20% above the average over the past decade, despite real interest rates of 2.1% being much higher now than during previous market booms, he said. The index's Shiller PE ratio, which uses inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years to smooth out short-term volatility, has reached 37 — close to its December high and not far off its record 38.6 reading in November 2021, per Gurufocus data. The Buffett indicator, which divides the total value of the US stock market by quarterly GDP, reached 198% as of Tuesday's close, Wilshire Indexes told BI. The measure is named after investor Warren Buffett, who once said buying stocks when the gauge exceeds 200% would be " playing with fire." Recession risk In his note, Rosenberg flagged recent declines in economic data, including new home sales, housing starts, goods exports, building permits, retail sales, real consumer spending, and industrial production. He also said the US average tariff rate is now nearly 16%, or six times its level before Trump took office. He added that this was equivalent to a $2,000 tax hike for the average American household. The blow to their real incomes implies an almost 1% drag on GDP growth, matching the estimated impact of immigration curbs and deportation, he continued. Rosenberg said these "various policy moves are tilting the US economy toward a recession." It is "no exaggeration to say that a consumer recession is forming," but there's "absolutely no fear out there in marketland," he added. He's not the only commentator sounding the alarm. Gary Shilling, another veteran economist known for his bearish views, recently told the "Soar Financially" podcast that the S&P is in a "very vulnerable situation" and valuation metrics "tell you that stocks are very expensive." Despite these historical warning signs, stocks have powered through and hit record highs over the last few years. The president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., who was Merrill Lynch's first chief economist, put the chances of a recession in the next year at 60% based on signs of a weakening consumer, flagging job market, and pressure on corporate profits. Meanwhile, Steve Hanke recently told BI that while stocks have historically shrugged off geopolitical shocks, he's skeptical whether investors are right to assume the Iran-Israel conflict is settled following the Trump-brokered ceasefire in June. "I'm not so sure that they are right," he said. The professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University added that a "multitude of dramatic policy changes" have fostered the greatest uncertainty for businesses and investors since the 1930s.
Yahoo
01-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
3 housing-market warning signs that economists are monitoring
Recession forecasters are keeping their eye on a handful of warning signs in the housing market. Weakness in the housing market could spill over to other areas of the economy, sources told BI. Falling home prices, waning investment, and a sluggish job market are among the top signals on watch. By a number of metrics, the US housing market is frozen. Inventory is piling up and sales volume has plunged, and the slowdown in what is a key pillar of the economy has some forecasters worried. Existing home sales dropped 0.7% year-over-year in May. That came after a particularly sluggish April, with homes making their way off the market at the slowest pace in 16 years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The situation is worse for new home sales, which dropped almost 14% in May. The drop in activity is raising alarms, and while most economists don't expect the US to tip into a full-blown recession in the near or medium term, a stagnating housing market has ramifications for the wider economy. "Housing is the quintessential leading indicator. And it's not just about volumes," David Rosenberg, a top economist and the CEO of Rosenberg Research, told Business Insider. "If the housing market falls a long way, we will obviously get much lower transactions. That's less activity for realtors and real estate agents. You tend to then also see quite big pullbacks in new construction and construction employment as well," Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told BI. Here are the warning signs that three economists said they're watching for. Home prices falling significantly could open up the door to a host of negative consequences for the US economy, according to Pantheon's Allen. That's because lower home prices tend to dent how consumers feel about their finances. It's another example of the "wealth effect." Losses on paper stemming from the value of homes or stock portfolios declining can cause consumer sentiment to sour and lead to reduced spending. While much of the market is still seeing prices grow, home prices have declined in some markets, while increases broadly are slowing. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in April, down from the prior month's 3.4% year-over-year gain. Allen estimates that home prices would need to drop by around 5% before there would be a "noticeable drag" on consumer spending and make a recession a "serious concern." Andrew Hollenhorst, the chief US economist at Citi, said he would be worried about a recession if home prices fell for six straight months or longer. If prices were to fall for that long, it would more seriously impact people's spending decisions, he said Meanwhile, the trend of declining home sales translates into less spending on other things like appliances and furniture that people tend to splurge on when they buy a house. "Every new home needs a washing machine, it needs a dishwasher. You're going to park some cars in the driveway," Hollenhorst told BI. "Those things will be slower also." Rosenberg said he believes home prices have room to fall. He pointed to the growing backlog of unsold new homes, with new unsold housing inventory now at its highest level in around 15 years, according to US Census Bureau data. The stock of existing homes for sale, meanwhile, is at an all-time record by dollar amount, Redfin said recently. "I believe that looking at the supply-demand backdrop right now, that deflation in the housing market is in its early stages," Rosenberg said. A decline in housing investment is the most direct way the housing slowdown could impact the economy, according to Pantheon's Allen. This category includes everything from housing construction to improvements and renovations to existing homes. Residential real estate investment activity started to fall dramatically in 2022 and has stagnated in recent years. The US saw $794.4 billion in private real residential fixed investment in the first quarter of this year, down 15.6% from its peak in the first quarter of 2021, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Pantheon Macro said it expected residential investment to slow enough to subtract around 0.2 percentage points from annualized GDP growth in the second and third quarters this year. Residential private fixed investment accounted for around 4% of GDP in the second quarter of 2024, according to an analysis from the Richmond Fed. In a briefing, central bank economists said it was one of the most volatile components of US GDP. Economists told Business Insider that a final component of the housing story they're watching is any impact on the labor market. A frozen housing market means less construction and less construction employment. The US has around 8 million construction workers who help build $2 trillion worth of residential and commercial structures in the US each year, according to the Associated General Contractors of America. The rate of employment growth in the sector has decreased over the past year, in line with the sales slowdown. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, construction employment grew 1.5% year over year in May, nearly half the rate of growth at the same time last year. The overall unemployment rate in the US stood at 4.2% in May, near a historic low. But Citi's Hollenhorst says he sees signs that the labor market is growing fragile, pointing to rising layoffs and a low hiring rate among employers. Hollenhurst says that weakness in the job market is one of the top indicators he's watching to gauge the risk of a recession in the coming year. He said he'd become concerned about a recession if joblessness and continuing unemployment claims were to pick up. "If you don't have a job or you're worried about not having a job, that's really going to cause you to pull back on spending," he said. "That's what really drives a downturn." Pantheon's Allen and Citi's Hollenhorst don't think a recession is likely. They said the economy looks more on track for a slowdown and weaker GDP growth than it's seen in recent years, pointing to the strong levels of spending and productivity the economy has seen in recent years. But it remains a risk on the radar, Hollenhorst said. "These things do happen together, if you have less demand for housing, less demand for services," Hollenhorst said. "There's always the potential that things could end up in a more negative scenario." Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Insider
01-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
3 housing-market warning signs that economists are monitoring
By a number of metrics, the US housing market is frozen. Inventory is piling up and sales volume has plunged, and the slowdown in what is a key pillar of the economy has some forecasters worried. Existing home sales dropped 0.7% year-over-year in May. That came after a particularly sluggish April, with homes making their way off the market at the slowest pace in 16 years, according to the National Association of Realtors. The situation is worse for new home sales, which dropped almost 14% in May. The drop in activity is raising alarms, and while most economists don't expect the US to tip into a full-blown recession in the near or medium term, a stagnating housing market has ramifications for the wider economy. " Housing is the quintessential leading indicator. And it's not just about volumes," David Rosenberg, a top economist and the CEO of Rosenberg Research, told Business Insider. "If the housing market falls a long way, we will obviously get much lower transactions. That's less activity for realtors and real estate agents. You tend to then also see quite big pullbacks in new construction and construction employment as well," Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told BI. Here are the warning signs that three economists said they're watching for. 1. A 5% drop in home prices Home prices falling significantly could open up the door to a host of negative consequences for the US economy, according to Pantheon's Allen. That's because lower home prices tend to dent how consumers feel about their finances. It's another example of the "wealth effect." Losses on paper stemming from the value of homes or stock portfolios declining can cause consumer sentiment to sour and lead to reduced spending. While much of the market is still seeing prices grow, home prices have declined in some markets, while increases broadly are slowing. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in April, down from the prior month's 3.4% year-over-year gain. Allen estimates that home prices would need to drop by around 5% before there would be a "noticeable drag" on consumer spending and make a recession a "serious concern." Andrew Hollenhorst, the chief US economist at Citi, said he would be worried about a recession if home prices fell for six straight months or longer. If prices were to fall for that long, it would more seriously impact people's spending decisions, he said Meanwhile, the trend of declining home sales translates into less spending on other things like appliances and furniture that people tend to splurge on when they buy a house. "Every new home needs a washing machine, it needs a dishwasher. You're going to park some cars in the driveway," Hollenhorst told BI. "Those things will be slower also." Rosenberg said he believes home prices have room to fall. He pointed to the growing backlog of unsold new homes, with new unsold housing inventory now at its highest level in around 15 years, according to US Census Bureau data. The stock of existing homes for sale, meanwhile, is at an all-time record by dollar amount, Redfin said recently. "I believe that looking at the supply-demand backdrop right now, that deflation in the housing market is in its early stages," Rosenberg said. 2. A drop in housing investment A decline in housing investment is the most direct way the housing slowdown could impact the economy, according to Pantheon's Allen. This category includes everything from housing construction to improvements and renovations to existing homes. Residential real estate investment activity started to fall dramatically in 2022 and has stagnated in recent years. The US saw $794.4 billion in private real residential fixed investment in the first quarter of this year, down 15.6% from its peak in the first quarter of 2021, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Pantheon Macro said it expected residential investment to slow enough to subtract around 0.2 percentage points from annualized GDP growth in the second and third quarters this year. Residential private fixed investment accounted for around 4% of GDP in the second quarter of 2024, according to an analysis from the Richmond Fed. In a briefing, central bank economists said it was one of the most volatile components of US GDP. 3. Impacts on the labor market Economists told Business Insider that a final component of the housing story they're watching is any impact on the labor market. A frozen housing market means less construction and less construction employment. The US has around 8 million construction workers who help build $2 trillion worth of residential and commercial structures in the US each year, according to the Associated General Contractors of America. The rate of employment growth in the sector has decreased over the past year, in line with the sales slowdown. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, construction employment grew 1.5% year over year in May, nearly half the rate of growth at the same time last year. The overall unemployment rate in the US stood at 4.2% in May, near a historic low. But Citi's Hollenhorst says he sees signs that the labor market is growing fragile, pointing to rising layoffs and a low hiring rate among employers. Hollenhurst says that weakness in the job market is one of the top indicators he's watching to gauge the risk of a recession in the coming year. He said he'd become concerned about a recession if joblessness and continuing unemployment claims were to pick up. "If you don't have a job or you're worried about not having a job, that's really going to cause you to pull back on spending," he said. "That's what really drives a downturn." Pantheon's Allen and Citi's Hollenhorst don't think a recession is likely. They said the economy looks more on track for a slowdown and weaker GDP growth than it's seen in recent years, pointing to the strong levels of spending and productivity the economy has seen in recent years. But it remains a risk on the radar, Hollenhorst said. "These things do happen together, if you have less demand for housing, less demand for services," Hollenhorst said. "There's always the potential that things could end up in a more negative scenario."
