Latest news with #RoslinAzmyHassan
The Star
4 days ago
- Business
- The Star
CPO prices likely to remain steady
PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are facing renewed pressure as stockpiles climb to a 19-month high, raising concerns over the earnings outlook for plantation players. Regardless, analysts foresee prices to remain elevated between RM3,800 and RM4,500 per tonne for the rest of 2025. CPO futures were trading at RM4,220 per tonne at market close, according to Bloomberg data. While prices have declined year-to-date, they have gradually recovered since early May, when the contract was trading at RM3,772 per tonne. The stronger performance comes even as Malaysian palm oil reserves are estimated to have surged nearly 10% a month earlier to around 2.23 million tonnes in July, the highest level in 19 months. Speaking to StarBiz, Malaysia Palm Oil Association chief executive Roslin Azmy Hassan acknowledged the jump in inventory levels is weakening market sentiment, particularly as the July stockpile was recorded to be the highest since December 2023. Roslin shared that the high inventory level was driven by stronger output and weaker demand. 'CPO production in July rose by around 8% compared to June, supported by improved weather, enhanced harvesting efficiency and seasonal yield recovery,' he said. 'However, export growth was not strong enough to match supply. Key buyers like India and China reduced buying due to comfortable stock levels and more competitive pricing from Indonesia,' he added. Looking ahead, Roslin said the inventory buildup could persist over the next two months. 'The high inventory scenario is expected to persist until at least October 2025, coinciding with the seasonal peak production period. 'Unless there are major weather disruptions or a sharp demand recovery, stock levels may only begin to ease in the fourth quarter,' he added. CIMB Securities head of research Ivy Ng Lee Fang shared a similar outlook, saying CPO inventories are likely to remain high in the near term. 'We expect the CPO price to trade between RM3,800 and RM4,300 per tonne,' she said. Ng added that the downside would be cushioned by slower palm oil output growth and stronger biodiesel demand in Indonesia, while the upside is capped by rising stock levels. She pointed out that two key developments to watch are whether Indonesia raises its biodiesel blend from B40 to B45 or B50, and whether the United States increases its biodiesel incentives. She also flagged potential risks from weather conditions. 'For example, the recent severe haze condition in Indonesia could affect palm oil supply if it prolongs,' she said. BIMB Securities analyst Saffa Amanina echoed the near-term cautious tone, citing elevated stockpiles that are likely to remain above two million tonnes through September. 'We expect CPO prices to remain under pressure in the near term due to elevated inventory levels, which are likely to stay above two million tonnes through September,' she said. She said this was due to seasonal peak production in both Malaysia and Indonesia, alongside the upcoming soybean harvest in the United States, which may weigh on sentiment across the broader vegetable oil market. 'We estimate that CPO prices could temporarily soften, with downside risk to briefly dip to RM3,700 per tonne,' she said. Still, she believes the decline will be limited by restocking demand from India ahead of Deepavali. Amanina projects that prices will recover towards the year-end, trading between RM4,100 and RM4,200 per tonne, supported by monsoon-related supply disruptions. She added that price pressures could also stem from the narrowing CPO-soybean oil price gap, in-house expectation of a stronger ringgit, and a wider palm oil-gas oil spread, which may reduce biodiesel blending incentives. Potential support, on the other hand, may come from changes in US biofuel targets and European restocking ahead of the European Union's deforestation regulation. While most experts are cautious in the short term, some are less concerned. Former Malaysian palm oil executive Joseph Tek downplayed fears of oversupply, saying the current stockpile levels are not unusually high. 'While end stocks are at 2.2 to 2.3 million tonnes, it is not really high. The market has just gotten used to seeing below two million tonnes. This level should be seen as neutral and I don't expect prices to react dramatically,' he said. He pointed out that the supply situation may appear elevated on paper, but regional consumption patterns are shifting. For instance, Indonesia has been using more of its palm oil locally, leaving less for export. 'The market is not exactly overflowing,' he said. While he expects the current situation to linger for a bit, he remains bullish that prices will hold steady. Looking ahead, Tek said several factors could influence the market in the second half of 2025, including production trends in both Malaysia and Indonesia, developments in the biodiesel segment, and policy decisions from the United States. 'The market is expecting a big peak in production, but I remain cautiously optimistic. My pragmatism tells me it may not be as high as anticipated,' he said. He added that while Indonesia's biodiesel blending hit a strong 95% realisation rate in the first half of the year, there have been some hiccups recently. 'If blending volumes dip, we could see prices take a hit,' he said, noting that the industry is also keeping a close watch on the rollout of the B50 biodiesel programme. Meanwhile, the upcoming announcement of the US Renewable Volume Obligations could also play a role in shaping global vegetable oil demand. 'While end stocks might look steady, these factors could still keep the market lively. I would like to think of it as a steady raft with a few interesting currents,' he said. On pricing, Tek expects CPO prices to remain firm in the near term, trading within a favourable range of RM4,100 to RM4,500 per tonne. 'I'm looking at plus or minus 5%, but if there are other intertwined factors interplaying, then we can raise it to plus or minus 10%,' he said.
Free Malaysia Today
09-06-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Job of last resort puts further strain on Malaysia's palm sector
Skilled harvesters use hand-held sickles attached to long poles to cut down fruit from trees that can weigh as much as 25kg. KUALA LUMPUR : Malaysia's palm oil industry is grappling with a dwindling labour pool as workers increasingly shun physically demanding jobs at plantations, a trend that threatens to exacerbate production woes in the major grower. The sector has become the 'last choice' for foreign labourers – the backbone of the industry – and locals, who view the work as dirty, dangerous and difficult, said Roslin Azmy Hassan, the head of the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, an industry group. 'Many are choosing jobs in urban areas,' he added. 'It's a Herculean task faced by all the plantation companies,' Roslin said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur, referring to difficulties attracting labour. 'We have been pushing hard for mechanisation, but the key work is harvesting. 'There's no machine that's able to achieve the productivity of a human being,' he added. Labour issues, along with low productivity from old trees and crop disease, are crimping output growth in the world's second-biggest grower. Roslin estimates that these factors are leading to revenue losses of as much as RM11 billion (US$2.6 billion) each year for the Malaysian palm oil industry. Palm is the world's most widely used vegetable oil and can be found in products from chocolate to cosmetics and biofuel, but the broader sector continues to be plagued by production issues. Top grower Indonesia has even turned to tiny bugs from Africa in an effort to boost output. Roslin said replanting costs have surged in recent years, discouraging smaller Malaysian operators from replenishing their palm plantations, while a fungus that causes stem rot has doubled its spread since 2017 to around 14% of the nation's planted area. He expects output will climb to 19.7 million tonnes this year, slightly higher than 2024, but still below pre-pandemic levels. Malaysia's plantations suffered their worst-ever labour shortage during the pandemic as border curbs halted the flow of people from countries including Indonesia and Bangladesh, crimping production. Since then, the sector has struggled to boost its foreign workforce to pre-Covid levels. The industry is trialling the use of robots to mechanise some parts of estate operations, but collecting palm bunches is still very much a manual job. Skilled harvesters use hand-held sickles attached to long poles to cut down fruit from trees that can weigh as much as 25kg. 'I don't know how long it's going to last, but things are getting more and more difficult,' said Roslin, referring to labour issues. 'It's a big struggle not only to entice workers, but also to keep them,' he added.
Bloomberg
05-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Job of Last Resort Puts Further Strain on Malaysia's Palm Sector
Malaysia's palm oil industry is grappling with a dwindling labor pool as workers increasingly shun physically demanding jobs at plantations, a trend that threatens to exacerbate production woes in the major grower. The sector has become the 'last choice' for foreign laborers — the backbone of the industry — and locals, who view the work as dirty, dangerous and difficult, said Roslin Azmy Hassan, the head of the Malaysian Palm Oil Association, an industry group. Many are choosing jobs in urban areas, he added.
