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New York Times
6 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
Nolan Schanuel, Andrew Abbott among the fantasy baseball surprises of the past month
Last week, a reader asked me to review split statistics. I hadn't done it yet because we have been dealing with a relatively small sample size. However, after the first month of the season, we were able to make roster decisions rationally. Ipso facto, it stands to reason that the past month (plus a few days) of data is at least something we should consider. Advertisement I don't like overfitted models. You dump everything into it, and pretty soon, you're recreating reality perfectly. We want as few filters as possible, so there are just a few outliers, and not everyone performs in fantasy exactly as they do in the model, making the model worthless. I also wanted to give some love to weekly head-to-head leagues, so I've included strikeout and walk rates for both pitchers and hitters. Even if you are in a straight Roto league, the better hitters aren't going to strike out at a relatively high rate and walk at a meager rate — I'm looking at you, Pete Crow-Armstrong. For pitchers, I sorted by total pitches in this sample period (I only wanted starters), and hurlers needed an xwOBA under .300 (the catch-all hitting stat bucket), a K rate over 25% and a BB rate under 9.5% (averages are about 22% and 8.5%, respectively). For hitters, players needed an xwOBA of at least .360 (average is about .330), a K rate under 21%, and a BB rate over 8%. I set the plate appearance filter at 100 for the split. This trimmed the list of my Lebowski Urban Achievers to 21 hitters and 19 pitchers — perfect. Most of them are, 'Yeah, no duh, he's great, buddy.' But that's what we want — just three or four surprising players, given the company they're keeping. The period sampled is May 1 through June 2. Will Warren (NYY): He was bombed by the Dodgers and was rage-dropped in some leagues with a real full-season ERA/WHIP of 5.19/1.43. But his xwOBA, which is a proxy for xERA, is better than some big names on this list, especially Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who has been good in expected stats). He has a 33.9% K rate during the period, along with a 9.4% walk rate. We wish the walks were a full tick lower, but that's livable. He's widely available. Kevin Gausman (TOR): His full-season ERA is pushing 4.00, but he's at 3.19 for the sample period, though it should be under 3.00. I wrongly wanted no part of Gausman in March. He's still very good and probably better than most of his managers think. The bet here in a trade is that his ERA for the balance of the year will push 3.00, not 4.00. So, a mid-level hitter and a perceived higher-level pitcher for a high-level hitter and Gausman, which is a great trade if you need some overall category fuel. You would bet that Gausman ends up being as good as the much-better-perceived starter, or close enough. Advertisement Andrew Abbott (CIN): The smart people are convinced Abbott, viewed as a bottom-of-the-rotation real-life starter in March, is way over his skis given his absurdly low ERA. Yes, that ERA is more than a run better than his xERA, but xwOBA and even WHIP say he's earned a 3.00 ERA, which is great. He's basically the budget version of Yamamoto now. So, Yamamoto and a meh hitter for Abbott and a top hitter is a great trade, and you're leaning into the perception that Abbott is grossly lucky (he's actually legit good). He's still somehow only 79% rostered on Yahoo. Grant Holmes (ATL): Another reliever-to-starter conversion success story — like the other Holmes, Clay. Do you have to worry he's going to hit an innings wall? Look, we have to worry about all pitchers. He's resting between starts. He's a grown man. I think he can pitch 5-to-6 innings every 5-to-6 days. No one is being asked to be Cy Young anymore. You used to be able to spot the guys who were hurt by looking at those in the 180-innings range, and now that innings level is getting you on the leaderboard. He's only 45% rostered on Yahoo. Nolan Schanuel (LAA): He's just 9% rostered. He's a weird player. My podcast partner, Scott Pianowski, compared him to Mark Grace, the former Cub. But anyone with an xwOBA over .400 for any reasonable period must be rostered in all formats, and especially in weekly leagues. He has about 13-HR power for a full season. However, his expected average is .332 in this sample period, with 14% walks, and— wait for it — 9.1% Ks. Cody Bellinger (NYY): I have to take my punishment here. I was making fun of Bellinger as a No. 3 hitter during draft season. He's been great, especially in the past five weeks or so. An 11.9% K rate is crazy good. His expected slugging percentage is higher than his actual one, at a robust .562 during this period. Remember that this is not even park-adjusted, and his park helps him. Ryan O'Hearn (BAL): Playing every day now, he's hitting .357 with an xBA of .337 for the period — just unreal numbers. His K rate is 17.5%, and his BB rate is 11.4% — both are great. He's one of the few things working out for Baltimore and will probably be trade bait in real life in short order, given the O's are going to be sellers. Advertisement Jake Meyers (HOU): Just 8% rostered, Meyers is playing every day. His xBA and xSLG for the period are .307 and .505 (he's actually hit .327). He has just a 14.7% K rate. I think he's about 15 homers pro-rated going forward — so let's call it 10. He's a top-60 outfielder in all formats and probably top-30 in Points/H2H formats. The Astros didn't really believe until recently, so you're forgiven. Miguel Vargas (CHW): He's just 11% better than the league average in a depressed run environment on the South Side, so it's understandable why he's only 43% rostered. But he made the grade here, so I sign off on rostering him in all formats. For the period, his xBA is .281 with a .519 slugging. His K rate is a great 13.7%, and the walk rate is average. For the full year, his expected stats do not pop as well. But he is barreling the ball at the 60th percentile, and it's even better per plate appearance. Jesús Sánchez (MIA): He's just 9% rostered. He's barely passing through my filters, but he made it. And he's not just an expected stats guy but has actually been real-stat good in the period (.304/.457). I think his power is average or better. He also runs. I've given myself lashings here, but I did recommend Sanchez in draft season. (Top photo of Nolan Schanuel: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
New York Times
18-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
NBA team motivations, player replacements for the fantasy basketball stretch run
We've reached the final countdown! Most head-to-head leagues are in the playoffs, and there are only a few more weeks to rise in Roto standings. If you're reading this, then you're probably winning or at least competing. Congrats! But there is still more work to be done. In this piece, I will review each NBA team, assess their motivations and identify what may help you in your quest for glory. Philadelphia is 12th in the Eastern Conference. Their 2025 first-round pick is protected in the top six, so they have every motivation to tank — and tank hard. Joel Embiid and Paul George have already been shut down, while Tyrese Maxey has missed the past seven games. The probabilities are high that we will no longer see him on the court the rest of the way. Advertisement Here are some 76ers rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Jalen Hood-Schifino (0% rostered): The 76ers took a chance on the Lakers' former first-round pick. He's averaged 21.5 minutes over the past two games, putting up 19 points with five treys on Sunday. Philadelphia may start giving him more minutes to see what they have. Jared Butler (10% rostered): Butler has started the past four games and averaged 30 minutes, 11.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 2.0 treys. I like his game because he never seems rushed. Jeff Dowtin Jr. (12% rostered): Dowtin is the opposite of Butler in that his frame is thinner, and he's a jittery player. He gets buckets, though, scoring double-digits in each of the past six games, two of those with at least 20 points. Over the past four games, Dowtin has averaged 28.7 minutes (skewed by a 40-minute game), 18.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.8 treys. Adem Bona (12% rostered): Bona is currently dealing with an ankle injury. In his last four games, he averaged 27.9 minutes, 13.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks. He's very athletic and hustles his butt off. Ricky Council IV (5% rostered): Council has flea-like hops. Unfortunately, the hoop must look like the size of a flea because he has serious efficiency issues shooting the ball. He's getting minutes, though, and minutes are half the battle. Over the past four games, Council has averaged 31.7 minutes, 14.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.3 treys, 0.8 steals and 1.0 blocks. The efficiency? A rough 38% from the field and 21% from downtown. Justin Edwards (2% rostered): Edwards has started the past six games, averaging 26.6 minutes, 10.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 treys. On Monday, he received 40 minutes and contributed 18 points, three rebounds, four assists, a steal and four treys. Advertisement San Antonio is 13th in the Western Conference. The Spurs have their 2025 first-rounder and have shut down Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox, so all hands on deck for the tank brigade. Here are some Spurs rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Jeremy Sochan (43% rostered): The minutes have fluctuated, but Sochan did receive 31 on Saturday. Sochan doesn't garner a high usage rate, but he's versatile and chips in every statistical category. Keldon Johnson (36% rostered): Johnson isn't starting, but he's been the microwave off the bench. He's scored double-figures in each of the past seven games, with a high of 28. The usage rate has ticked up 4% from his season average of 20%. Sandro Mamukelashvili (0% rostered): He hasn't done much and is playing mid-teen minutes, but he's flashed in the past and could get significant run as the tanking gets more intense Toronto is 11th in the Eastern Conference, 4.5 games behind the 10th seed. They own their 2025 first-round pick and are only a game up on the 13th seed. Scottie Barnes hasn't reached 30 minutes in any of the past four games. He also sat another. Toronto has two back-to-backs left. Here are some Raptors rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Jonathan Mogbo (1% rostered): Mogbo missed the past six games due to a nose injury. He's back and could get significant run down the stretch. His hustle and athleticism flashed when he was given opportunities earlier in the season. Mogbo wouldn't be a league winner, but he has the ability to chip in a little something something across the board. Orlando Robinson (27% rostered): Over the past nine games, Robinson has averaged 26.8 minutes, 10.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 blocks and 0.6 treys. For a big man, the 41% field goal percentage is brutal, but he is converting 82% of his 3.1 free throw attempts per game. If Jakob Poeltl and Barnes get shut down, Mogbo and Robinson would likely soak up most of the center and power forward minutes. Advertisement Colin Castleton (4% rostered): Castleton is on his second 10-day contract, so this may be nothing. There's a chance he remains a part of the tank brigade, though. When he was with the Lakers, I liked him because of his ability to pass, but he doesn't contribute much in the defensive categories. Over the past six games, Castleton has averaged 7.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists. A.J. Lawson (14% rostered): Lawson is 6-foot-6, 180 pounds and went unselected in the 2021 NBA Draft. Over the past seven games, he's averaged 30.1 minutes, 16.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.7 treys while attempting 13.6 shots a night. He is only shooting 40% from the field, but the playing time and volume are undeniable. Charlotte is 14th in the Eastern Conference at 17-50. They have the second-worst record in the NBA and their 2025 first-round pick will likely remain theirs — if it falls outside the lottery, then it goes to Sacramento. The motivation to tank is strong. Charlotte has three back-to-backs left. Here are some Hornets rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Moussa Diabate (4% rostered): If Mark Williams is shut down, Diabate has shown he can be productive. I love his energy, and he can provide rebounds and blocks if given the opportunity. DaQuan Jeffries (1% rostered): Jeffries has started six of the past seven games. He's mostly been empty for fantasy purposes, but he dropped 20 points three games ago and contributed five rebounds, three assists and two blocks last game. Playing alongside LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges doesn't afford many chances to get busy, but if those two start sitting, there's a more than Lloyd Christmas chance of fantasy goodies. Nick Smith Jr. (5% rostered): I'm still a sucker for NSJ. He's a professional bucket-getter, but the light frame makes it difficult at times while he's still inefficient from the field. In addition, he was sent to a reserve role a week ago. That said, he's flashed, with a game output of 26 points, three rebounds, five assists and six treys this past week. If Charlotte fully plants the Flagg, then NSJ should garner a massive usage rate and start cooking. Advertisement New Orleans has the third-worst record in the NBA. They have their 2025 first-round pick, so it's all tank, all the time. Here are some Pelicans rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Karlo Matkovic (13% rostered): Matkovic balled out in the Summer League, but that didn't get him into the regular-season rotation. Due to all injuries and poor record, Matkovic became a significant member of the rotation in February. Since then, he's averaged 9.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 blocks and 0.7 treys in 23.2 minutes. He has started the past two games and played an average of 27 minutes. As this season continues to slide into the abyss for New Orleans, there's a chance Matkovic will start playing over 30 minutes. Kelly Olynyk (13% rostered): Olynyk is 33 years old, so the conventional thought is he shouldn't be part of the tank brigade. But then I looked at the Pelicans' depth chart and Olynyk's contract, and things became very, very interesting. Olynyk can play both power forward and center. So can Matkovic. If the Pelicans tank, then Zion Williamson will be shut down. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is fourth on the depth chart at power forward, while Mo Bamba is third at center. Olynyk has one year left on his contract at $13.44 million. It could be in the Pelicans' best interest to play Olynyk and drum up interest for a trade in the offseason. If Olynyk does play — he has received 31 minutes in each of the past two games — he can stuff the stat sheet. Bruce Brown (3% rostered): Brown has played at least 30 minutes in two of the past three games. As with Olynyk, Brown can stuff the stat sheet sans blocks. In his most recent game, he put up 19 points, six rebounds, six assists and a trey in 32 minutes. Williamson likely won't play much the rest of the way, so Brown could soak up most of the small forward minutes. Jose Alvarado (17% rostered): Alvarado is playing minutes in the mid-20s as the backup point guard off the bench. 'Grand Theft' Alvarado will always rack up steals, but treys, points and dimes are also in the basket. In a full tanking scenario, CJ McCollum would likely be shut down, or at least limited, which could pave the way for Alvarado to receive over 30 minutes. Jordan Hawkins (5% rostered): Hawkins is a 3-point shooter who doesn't provide much else. His minutes are currently landing in the mid-20s, but with Trey Murphy III done for the season, that could allow Hawkins to play over 30 minutes. Advertisement Washington is tied for the worst record in the NBA. Their 2025 first-round pick is top-10 protected. Here are some Wizards rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Justin Champagnie (31% rostered): Since Bilal Coulibaly was lost for the season due to injury, Champagnie has started three games and averaged 34.3 minutes, 12.7 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 2.0 steals and 2.0 treys. He's shooting 51% from the field and 46% from downtown, both of which will come down, but the playing time should still provide plenty of fantasy goodies. Kyshawn George (31% rostered): George has had issues shooting, which isn't uncommon for rookies. Over the past six games, though, he's shooting 42% from downtown. In 32.3 minutes, he's also averaging 13.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.7 treys. He is literally stuffing the stat sheet. Bub Carrington (12% rostered): The playing time and production have been inconsistent, but he's shown flashes. If you can stomach the volatility and lack of defensive stats, Carrington could provide some points, treys, rebounds and dimes. Brooklyn is 13th in the Eastern Conference, and they re-acquired their 2025 first-round pick in June, so they have motivation to tank. That said, Brooklyn has been feisty, losing to the Warriors by 2 points, beating the Lakers, losing to the Cavaliers by 5 points, losing the Celtics by 2 points and beating the Hawks on Sunday — Cameron Johnson played 36 minutes. Brooklyn has one back-to-back left this season. The big news for Brooklyn is the loss of Cam Thomas for the rest of the season. He was garnering a massive 35% usage rate. With Thomas off the court this season, D'Angelo Russell leads the team with a 27% usage rate, while Johnson is at 24.5%. Russell is dealing with an ankle injury and should be the primary playmaker if and when he returns to action. I do think there's a good chance Russell gets shut down. Advertisement Here are some Nets rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Keon Johnson (18% rostered): entered the starting lineup for Thomas. He's started 43 games this season, averaging 12.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists. The shooting efficiency is always a problem for Johnson, as he's converted only 38% of his field goal attempts and 31% from downtown. Over the past two starts, though, he's averaged 21.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 4.5 treys while shooting 45% from the field and 50% from downtown. I'm not buying the shooting, but I love his athleticism. He should get plenty of opportunities to ball out the rest of the way. Tyrese Martin (3% rostered): Martin has been a part of the rotation for a while now, but he's usually only playing minutes in the low 20s. The scoring is inconsistent, but he's put up double-digit points 18 times this season, with a high of 30. Martin is not a one-trick pony, contributing a little something something in every statistical category. Granted, it's not voluminous production, but it's something. With Ziaire Williams dealing with an Achilles injury, Martin got the start in their most recent game and played 33 minutes, producing 16 points, six rebounds, three assists, a steal and three treys. Maxwell Lewis (0% rostered): Since being acquired by Brooklyn in January, Lewis played a total of 22 minutes. With Thomas out, Lewis played 16 and 23 minutes in the past two games, respectively, averaging 12.5 points, 1.0 steals and 2.5 treys. It may be nothing; it could be something. Lewis is someone to monitor because the Nets may want to see what they have in him. Noah Clowney (5% rostered): There was much optimism for Clowney entering this season, as he displayed his upside at the end of last season. Unfortunately, Clowney hasn't been able to replicate that production and has dealt with a myriad of injuries this season. I'd keep an eye on him, though. If he starts getting the playing time and produces up to his potential, he could be a beast for points, rebounds and blocks. Utah is tied for the worst record in the NBA. The Cooper Flagg was planted long ago. Now all Jazz fans can do is pray. Utah may be very annoying for fantasy because the playing time may be very fractured. The NBA already fined the team for tanking, so Lauri Markkanen may start but only play 20 minutes. Here are some players rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Kyle Filipowski (36% rostered): I've been impressed with Filipowski. He has a nice stroke from the perimeter, displays excellent footwork in the paint and isn't soft, both mentally and physically. The only issue is playing time. His minutes have fluctuated in his past six games, with three games under 19 minutes and two over 30 minutes. Advertisement Isaiah Collier (32% rostered): Collier is a beast in transition. He has excellent size at 6-foot-3, 210 pounds and can really move up and down the court. Shooting is an issue, though, as he's only converting 41% from the field and 23% from downtown. He's getting the playing time, though. Since entering the starting lineup 35 games ago, Collier has averaged 30.5 minutes, 11 points, 4.0 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 0.9 steals. Oklahoma City is tied with Cleveland for the best record in the NBA. They essentially have the No. 1 overall seed locked up, as they are 13 games on top of the field in the Western Conference. I think there's a good chance many of the starters will be getting days off. There is one back-to-back left on the schedule. Here are some players rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Cason Wallace (24% rostered): Wallace has been playing and starting for the injured Jalen Williams. Over the past four games, he has averaged 30.6 minutes, 13.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.5 treys. He's not going to shoot 63% from the field and 60% from downtown, but he should chip in every statistical category if he plays significant minutes. He's not flashy but just gets the job done. Aaron Wiggins (17% rostered): Wiggins has one role, and one role only — get buckets. And he's happily obliged this season, scoring double-digit points 37 times. He has games of 30 and 41 points. If Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams sit, Wiggins garners a high usage rate and becomes the alpha on offense. Isaiah Joe (3% rostered): Joe is Temu Wiggins, scoring double-digit points 27 times this season, with a high of 31. Jaylin Williams (2% rostered): Williams got the start six games ago and produced a triple-double in 36 minutes: 10 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists, three steals, two blocks and two treys. Yeah, that plays. Advertisement Cleveland is making a mockery of the NBA schedule, posting a 56-11 record and leading the Boston Celtics by 7.5 games for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland has already started resting starters, which should be expected to continue down the stretch. There are two back-to-backs left on the schedule. Here are some Cavaliers rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Ty Jerome (19% rostered): Jerome has only started two games this season, but don't let that fool you. When one of Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland sits, Jerome usually plays close to 30 minutes. And he's balled out. Jerome can provide points, assists and treys. He's scored at least 20 points 10 times this season, with a high of 33. He's dished out at least five assists 18 times. Max Strus (11% rostered): 'The Strus Goose' hasn't necessarily been on the loose this season, but there's been a little liftoff to get over the ripples. There's a good chance he scores 10 points, provides a trey or two, grabs around five rebounds and dishes out four dimes. It's not exciting, but I don't discriminate against counting stats. Boston looks to be locked into the second seed in the Eastern Conference, as they are 7.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers and six games up on the New York Knicks. Boston has already been managing playing time for the starters, and I think there will be some missed games down the stretch. Boston has two back-to-backs left on the schedule. Here are some Celtics rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Al Horford (31% rostered): Horford doesn't play every night, but he's been very useful, especially when Kristaps Porzingis has been out. Over his past seven games played, Horford averaged 12.3 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.1 treys in 33.8 minutes. Advertisement Sam Hauser (2% rostered): You definitely have to pick and choose your spots with Hauser, but when one of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown sits, he often starts and launches shots from downtown. He doesn't provide much outside of points and treys, but the upside is 33 points, six rebounds and nine treys, a stat line he delivered four games ago in 35 minutes against the Utah Jazz. Miami is ninth in the Eastern Conference, one game ahead of the Bulls. Miami's 2025 first-round pick is lottery-protected, so the next few games could determine which side of the fence Miami chooses to jump on. There is one back-to-back left on the schedule. Here are some players rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Kel'el Ware (42% rostered): Ware looked to have hit a rookie wall after coming out of the gates scorching hot. His minutes dissipated into the teens. On Saturday, though, he reminded everyone how good he is, finishing with 19 points, 11 rebounds, an assist, a steal and a trey in 36 minutes. If the Heat make a push for the playoffs, I could see Ware getting deprioritized, but if Miami has googly eyes for their draft pick, then Ware could be a … don't say it … don't say it … league winner. Kyle Anderson (1% rostered): Mr. Anderson is the opposite of a league winner, but that doesn't mean he's worthless. On Saturday, Anderson received 30 minutes and contributed 13 points, six rebounds, five assists, a steal and two treys. Nothing earth-shattering, but when Mr. Anderson gets playing time, he contributes in every statistical category. Pelle Larsson (0% rostered): I've been keeping my eye on Larsson all season after reading all offseason how much the coaching staff loved him. He reminds me of Christian Braun. Anyways, Larsson probably won't amount to much for fantasy this season, but if Miami does prioritize the draft pick, then there's a chance he could start to see 30 minutes. Atlanta is currently seventh in the Eastern Conference at 32-36. They are five games back of the sixth seed, but only 3.5 games ahead of the 10th-seeded Chicago Bulls. They are squarely in the playoff race, with most of the battle for seeding. I foresee the status quo for their main players down the stretch. Advertisement Here are some Hawks rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Caris LeVert (31% rostered): If you need points, LeVert could deliver. Since arriving in Atlanta, LeVert has put up at least 20 points four times. Georges Niang (6% rostered): Niang is out there to space the floor and can provide treys. The volume is inconsistent, though, and he will likely only play mid-20s minutes, but he's hucked up double-digit shots nine times since arriving in Atlanta. Zaccharie Risacher (19% rostered): The playing time and production have been inconsistent for the overall No. 1 pick. Over the past four games, Risacher has averaged 27.8 minutes. He has attempted double-digit shots in three of those contests and has been doing decent work on the glass. He does have good length and athleticism while proving the NBA stage is not too big for him. Chicago is 10th in the Eastern Conference, 4.5 games ahead of the 11th-seeded Toronto Raptors. They should be playing hard the rest of the way. Here are some Bulls rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Tre Jones (23% rostered): Jones has started the past six games and averaged 14.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 treys in 33.4 minutes. The playing time has come at the expense of Lonzo Ball, who is dealing with a wrist injury. Ride the hot hand until the universe tells you to get off. Kevin Huerter (11% rostered): It took a minute for Huerter to get acclimated in Chicago, but he's become an integral part of the rotation. Huerter had scored double-digit points in eight straight before Saturday's 9-point performance. With Josh Giddey injured, Huerter has started the past two games and played at least 33 minutes in both. While his primary job is to space the floor, Huerter has put his hard hat on while doing yeoman's work on the glass. He's always been known as a decent playmaker, so assists have been dished as well. Advertisement Dallas is currently 10th in the Western Conference, only 1.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns. The Portland Trail Blazers are 3.5 games behind. The Mavericks do have their 2025 first-round pick, so it will be interesting to see how they approach the end of the season. Dallas showed in the past it was willing to prioritize a better draft pick, but that was under different ownership. There are two back-to-backs left for Dallas. Here are some Mavericks rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Spencer Dinwiddie (24% rostered): Dinwiddie has efficiency and inconsistency issues, but he's playing a ton of minutes with Kyrie Irving done for the season. Over the past seven games, Dinwiddie has only started one game but averaged 14.6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 0.9 steals and 1.6 treys. The usage rate has been a respectable 20%. Brandon Williams (23% rostered): Williams is undersized but lightning-quick and a professional bucket-getter. Over the past six games, he's averaged 18.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.5 treys in 29.7 minutes. He's garnered the trust of Jason Kidd and definitely passes the eye test. He is on a two-way deal, though, and can only play five more games this season. It's likely the Mavericks will sign Williams to a standard contract, but Dallas has been known to do illogical things. Denver is tied for second in the Western Conference. It is super tight up top, as only five games separate seeds 2 through 8. It's full steam ahead, matey! Detroit is sixth in the Eastern Conference, only 1.5 games behind the fourth-seed Bucks. The Hawks are five games back. Pedal to the metal! Detroit has two back-to-backs left on the schedule. Here are some Pistons rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Malik Beasley (39% rostered): Beasley is ninth in treys attempted per game and third at 3.9 makes per contest. He's also averaging a steal per game, making Beasley a nice 3-and-D player. Defenses converge on Cade Cunningham, so Beasley should continue to get plenty of looks from beyond the arc. Advertisement Dennis Schroder (38% rostered): It took some time for Schroder to get situated in Detroit, but his role has been defined, and it looks like he's comfortable now. Over the past six games, Schroder is averaging 24.5 minutes off the bench and contributing 13.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.0 treys. That's not bad for assist-needy teams, and Schroder has delivered double-digit points in six straight. Golden State is sixth in the Western Conference, 2.5 games behind the Lakers and only 1.5 games up on the eight-seed Clippers. Golden Curry will continue to be a menu mainstay on a nightly basis for the Warriors. There are two back-to-backs for Golden State. Here are some Warriors rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Moses Moody (20% rostered): Steve Kerr has often been moody in regards to Moody's playing time, but it looks like Moses has finally garnered the trust of Kerr. Over the past five games, Moody has started and averaged 31.6 minutes, 15.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.8 treys. Playing alongside Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler provides plenty of open looks on offense. Quinten Post (4% rostered): Post is an intriguing player. He likely won't play more than 20 minutes any night, but he could provide utility for certain teams, as he can provide both blocks and treys from the center slot. There are no problems in Houston, as they are currently tied for the second seed in the Western Conference. Only five games separate the 2 and 8 seeds, so it's all systems go. Houston has one back-to-back left on the schedule. Here are some Rockets rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Dillon Brooks (25% rostered): Minutes are gold, Jerry! That ironically makes Brooks bling because he is probably the most unexciting fantasy player. That said, over the past 10 games, he's averaging 31.6 minutes, 16.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.9 treys. Advertisement Steven Adams (2% rostered): If you need rebounds, Adams is averaging 8.2 over the past six games in 18.2 minutes. Sneakily, he's also chipping in 2.3 assists. Indiana is fifth in the Eastern Conference, 0.5 games behind the Bucks and only one game up on the Pistons. No pit stops for Indiana. There are three back-to-backs left on the schedule. Here are some Pacers rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Aaron Nesmith (23% rostered): Nesmith is currently dealing with an ankle injury, but it doesn't sound too serious. Over the past nine games, he's started all of them and averaged 31.9 minutes, 16.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals and 3.0 treys. That's top-70 production on a per-game basis! Andrew Nembhard (28% rostered): This recommendation is only for when Tyrese Haliburton (who's been dealing with issues) is out. In two of the three games Haliburton recently missed, Nembhard went for 15 points/10 assists in one and 11 points/12 assists in the other. Los Angeles is eighth in the Western Conference but only five games behind the second seed while being four games up on the Kings. The sails are raised, and all the oarsmen have taken their places below deck to guide this ship to the Promised Land. There are three back-to-backs left on the schedule. Two of those are within six days of each other in early April. Kawhi Leonard has sat at least one leg of every back-to-back this season, and he will likely be sitting at least three of those remaining back-to-backs. Los Angeles is fifth in the Western Conference, two games behind the second seed and four games up on the eighth seed. The Lakers are banged up with LeBron James and Rui Hachimura out, but the show must, and will, go on. There are four back-to-backs left on the schedule. James has played in every back-to-back this season, but there's a chance he misses a few down the stretch. Advertisement Here's a Laker rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Jaxson Hayes (22% rostered): Hayes returned from a four-game absence and contributed 19 points, six rebounds, three assists, a steal and a block in 29 minutes. He's an excellent lob threat for Luka Doncic and has been racking up blocks. The rebounding numbers aren't that great, but excellent field goal percentage, points and blocks ain't bad. Memphis is tied for second in the Western Conference. The Warriors and Timberwolves are currently tied for the sixth seed and are only 3.5 games back, so all the top teams should be going full throttle until the standings become more concrete. Memphis has one back-to-back left on the schedule. Here are some Grizzlies rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Luke Kennard (5% rostered): Kennard will likely only play 20 minutes, give or take a few, but he can provide some treys and steals. While he's out there primarily to space the floor, Kennard is a good playmaker and dishes out dimes from time to time. The scoring is volatile, but he showed the upside when he dropped 30 points in 31 minutes three games ago, but it's his ability to contribute a little something something across the board that provides the most appeal. Santi Aldama (40% rostered): Aldama is currently out with a calf injury and has missed the past five games. If you have an open IR slot, though, I'd consider scooping him up. Aldama has excellent size at 7 feet and 215 pounds, but he can space the floor, converting 37% of his 4.8 attempts from downtown per game. Memphis loves to play fast and space the floor. The combo of Aldama and Jaren Jackson Jr. in the front court gives defenses fits. Aldama showed his upside nine games ago when he put up 15 points, eight rebounds, 11 assists, a steal, a block and a trey in 37 minutes. Milwaukee is fourth in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers and Pistons are 0.5 and 1.5 games back, respectively. It's time for the Bucks to start charging toward the playoffs. Milwaukee has two back-to-backs left in the season. Advertisement Here are some Bucks rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Kevin Porter Jr. (6% rostered): Porter is not going to play 20 minutes, which makes him a tough roster. He makes the most of his time on the court, though. In the 17 minutes per night he's been getting, the usage rate has been in the 27% range. He's scored in double-figures in each of the past three games, with a high of 22. Six games ago, he triple-doubled with 10 points, 11 rebounds and 14 assists in 26 minutes, so that's the upside. A sneaky aspect of KPJ's game is the ability to get to the line. He's uber aggressive and has attempted 23 free throws in the past four games, converting 22 of them. Gary Trent Jr. (10% rostered): Trent is a 3-point specialist who plays around 23 minutes a night. He's drained at least three treys in each of the past four games. Minnesota is seventh in the Western Conference, only 3.5 games back of the second seed. The eight-seed Clippers are only 1.5 games behind Minnesota. There will be no catnaps the rest of the way. Minnesota has one back-to-back left on the schedule. New York is third in the Eastern Conference, six games behind the Celtics and 4.5 games ahead of the Bucks. Tom Thibodeau plays his guys 40 minutes a night — rain, sleet or shine. If the Knicks were in play for the No. 1 overall pick, he'd still play his guys 40 minutes. New York has five back-to-backs left on the schedule, but Thibodeau scoffs at back-to-backs. Until Jalen Brunson returns to action, Miles McBride (33% rostered) should deliver fantasy goodies. In four starts replacing Brunson, McBride has averaged 35.3 minutes, 14.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 3.0 treys. Since making his season debut eight games ago, Mitchell Robinson (8% rostered) was limited to under 20 minutes. On Monday, he played 24 minutes off the bench, finishing with 10 points, nine rebounds, an assist, two steals and two blocks. If you need big man stats, saunter down to Mr. Robinson's neighborhood. Advertisement Orlando is eighth in the Eastern Conference, 0.5 games behind Atlanta and two games up on the Heat. The Magic are trying to not … POOF! … disappear from the playoff picture, so they should be pulling every rabbit out of every hat to make the money season a reality. Orlando has two back-to-backs left in the season. Cole Anthony (16% rostered) is currently dealing with a toe injury and has missed three games. When he returns, he's a viable option for points, treys and dimes. The range in playing time has been wide, though, from 21 to 31 minutes, but he can go for 20 points and five assists on any given night. Just be aware of the volatility, especially since the Magic offense runs through Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner first. Phoenix is 11th in the Western Conference, 1.5 games behind the 10th seed. The Suns are not in control of their 2025 first-round pick, so there shouldn't be any shenanigans as the team tries to make the Play-In tournament. Phoenix has one back-to-back left on the schedule. Here's a player rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Ryan Dunn (2% rostered): I have doubts regarding Dunn, but he has played an average of 26.7 minutes over the past three games, contributing a total of 10 stocks (steals+blocks). When he's on the court, defenses dare him to shoot as they focus on Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. In the three games, Dunn has attempted a total of 44 shots, making 18 of them, including seven from downtown. If he continues making his shots, Dunn will get playing time, but there's also the chance he shoots himself off the court. Portland is 12th in the Western Conference, 3.5 games behind the 10th seed. Its 2025 first-round pick is lottery-protected. I'm not sure which direction Portland goes. It has one back-to-back remaining. Here are some Blazers rostered on less than 50% of Yahoo teams who could be of use: Toumani Camara (47% rostered): Camara is a low-usage player, but he's been great at stuffing the stat sheet, especially in the defensive categories. Over the past eight games, Camara has averaged 35.2 minutes, 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.0 treys. Advertisement Donovan Clingan (35% rostered): Clingan has started the past 14 games with Deandre Ayton dealing with a calf injury. Clingan has averaged 24.1 minutes, 7.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.0 blocks. Over the past three games, he's averaged 32 minutes, 11.7 rebounds and 3.3 blocks. When Ayton initially got injured, March 12 was the date given for when he would be re-evaluated. We still have not received an update. Ayton's availability is a huge variable for the fantasy prospects of Clingan going forward. Scoot Henderson (36% rostered): Henderson is tough because he's flashed at times and is playing over 30 minutes despite not starting, but the shooting efficiency remains poor while the dimes haven't been eye-popping and the defensive stats have been lacking. Over the past four games, Scoot has averaged 32 minutes, 15.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.8 treys while shooting 38% from the field and 35% from downtown. Sacramento is ninth in the Western Conference, four games behind the Clippers and three games up on the 11th seed. There will be no conserving energy, as everything will be dedicated to lighting the beam on a nightly basis. Sacramento has three back-to-backs remaining. (Top photo of Kel'el Ware, Mitchell Robinson: Elsa / Getty Images)
New York Times
12-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Profiling the top utility-only players, and rookies to watch for fantasy baseball 2025
The rankings for the utility-only players listed here are for standard 5×5 Roto leagues (mixed universe). This format may be obsolete for those who play Points leagues, Head-to-Head, Best Ball, DFS or sim games. I try to note where format makes a difference, but it's called 'standard' for a reason, and we have to start somewhere. Advertisement These rankings are for 2025 only. I ranked the players at the position they played the most but tried to note when they qualify elsewhere — and often, it makes more sense to draft them elsewhere. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. By my conservative calculations, he had a $72 2024 season. How do you bid that? I don't know. I do know it's almost impossible to do what Ohtani did for another year, at least when judging by previously established norms. But base stealing has been made easier, which should be part of our calculations. Teams have not taken advantage nearly as much as they could, but individual players have. Ronald Acuña's 2023 (41 HRs/73 SBs) was just as outrageous (for him), and those two are not the only players capable of these numbers or close to them. Obviously, Ohtani is a good No. 1 overall pick. The one argument against him that holds water with me is that he will get a lot of days off if he's pitching. Then again, that could be true, and Ohtani could still be the best Roto hitter. Wow, I thought he was lucky to hit .246 with all the strikeouts and fly balls. So he cuts both a little and hits .293 … with 39 HRs and 11 SBs. Moving to a better hitter's park might completely defeat the expected regression. The public is impressed, as his ADP as a UT-only is 75. I think Rooker's AVG will fall and by a lot, but a lot means .265, and that's fine. Last year, the clear call was regression, which was clearly very wrong. Nevertheless, I will stay far away this year. Ozuna is not the most extreme high-K/high-FB hitter, but he still is one, and it's almost impossible for those players to sustain a high AVG — too many easy outs. In the two years prior to 2023, he hit .222, and now he's 34. I'm tempted to throw his name out early in an auction and let the fur fly. Someone will fill their UT slot with an overpayment. Advertisement Have a lefty bat, and I will travel. Pederson adds hits to his Three True Outcomes, making all the difference. There's no sign of decline. His tremendous minor-league plate patience (14.6% walks) did not hold up. It's great to get ahead in the count but terrible to get behind. Year to year, the MLB OPS when ahead in the count is about .950, and when behind, it's about .520 — the difference between Juan Soto and Austin Hedges and by far the biggest edge in the game. Manzardo looked like he was getting the hang of it in September and the postseason. He showed he can crush in the majors. The remaining questions are: Can he sustain himself, and will they let him play against lefties? At age 24, there's room to grow, but before bidding him up, I'd like to see the Guardians commit to Manzardo full-time. He stayed healthy in 2024 — a mere appendectomy to start the season. But it was a terrible year at the plate, one that got worse after the trade to Tampa — it's tough to believe Jiménez is that bad. Going into 2024, he was a career .275 hitter and .487 slugger, and he plays this year at age 27. He's going to go for a buck. You get what you pay for if you don't pay for more than 110 games. Bryant seems destined to post one of the lowest WAR-per-salary-dollar numbers ever, as he is signed through 2028. Another Scott Boras disaster, although certainly not for Boras. The injuries to a wide variety of body parts help explain his otherwise shocking collapse. I guess he could still rebound at age 33. I could also pick up a coin and flip five heads in a row. Apparently, Boston doesn't want Yoshida in the outfield, which leaves platoon DH, a most insecure position for anyone with a smaller contract — and in some cases, teams will cut ties anyway. I'm sure they'd trade him in a minute, and getting him on the IL might be quite convenient. Advertisement He's a decent hole-filler in mixed leagues if UT is where your hole is. Black is still a prospect at age 24, although he's not without his doubters. The lefty hitter offers plenty of speed and decent pop and posted a 15.5% walk rate in the minors. Where he will play is unknown, but first base or the outfield seem most likely. The issue will be contact — hey, there's a new one. A spring watch for now, he could wind up being a serious factor in the 2025 SB department. Black's an excellent reserve pick in mixed leagues. He turns 26 in May, but he's spent eight years in the minors and really turned it on in Triple-A at .328/.405/.572. He wasn't terrible in his 132 PAs for the Nats and wasn't overmatched (18.2% Ks). An option at either first base or third base, he's been swinging a hot bat this spring. He could get another chance with Washington before long and surprise. Harris is an aspiring utility player who bats left and owns a minor-league 150-game pace of 18/38 in the power/speed department. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy allowed his minions to run a little more last year, but not a lot more. Baker's stuck inside of Memphis with the lack of mobility blues again. But Baker has hit 65 home runs for the Triple-A Redbirds the past two years, at a 51 per 150 games pace. He hasn't been so hot in the majors, though. His 11.2% walk rate in the minors translated, but 28.4% Ks with 43% fly balls mean he can't hit for average. Baker may get a real shot this year and is capable of an early-season home run barrage, but is more likely to hit .180 and get sent downriver again. (Top photo of Shohei Ohtani:)
New York Times
03-03-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Profiling the top 27 shortstops, and rookies to watch for fantasy baseball 2025
The rankings for the shortstops listed here are for standard 5×5 Roto leagues (mixed universe). This format may be obsolete for those who play Points leagues, Head-to-Head, Best Ball, DFS or sim games. I try to note where format makes a difference, but it's called 'standard' for a reason, and we have to start somewhere. Advertisement These rankings are for 2025 only. I ranked the players at the position they played the most but tried to note when they qualify elsewhere — and often, it makes more sense to draft them elsewhere. Access The Athletic's guide for abbreviations used in fantasy baseball. Witt has a clear path to being even better this year if he chases the ball less. We saw the greatest season in Roto history last year from Shohei Ohtani, and this guy could get there with fewer home runs, maybe, but more stolen bases and a higher batting average. Witt is, after all, the fastest player in baseball. Given that Ohtani is pitching this year and Ronald Acuña is hurt, I'll take Witt if I get the first pick in a Roto draft. In a Best Ball or Points leagues, I'd take Aaron Judge. I can't see a good case for a decline in any of De La Cruz's category stats. Perhaps batting average, with his 31.3% Ks, but then his career .350 BABIP is not irrational to expect. Elly has suffered from what might be termed Aaron Judge Syndrome — pitches below his knees get called strikes when they're not because his knees are higher. The umps pretty much stopped doing it to Judge, and we can safely assume they want to get their calls right, right? Right. ('It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine…') There's also the distinct possibility that De La Cruz will take another step up. By playing regularly in the majors at age 21 (20, actually), he has better than a one-third chance to make the Hall of Fame. If he stays healthy, it's higher than that. There's no guarantee he will explode this year or next, but with Ronald Acuña's injury, Elly is the clear favorite to lead the majors in steals while hitting a baseline 25 home runs with 100 runs. Arguably, De La Cruz is the No. 1 pick of 2025, but I'll take Witt's big, apparent batting-average edge over Elly's smaller, apparent stolen-base edge. Advertisement Henderson has your basic Hall of Fame trajectory at age 24. He has to stay healthy, but given that, we can expect him to duplicate and, indeed, exceed his 2024 campaign for about 12 more years. In a mixed league, you can find someone to fill in when Betts is hurt, but good luck in an NL league. His stolen bases bounced back in 2024 (16, his highest since 2019) as did his HardHit% (42.9% compared to 39.5% the year before). Still a first-rounder, Betts also qualifies (and is probably preferable) in the outfield. He also played 18 games at second base. Turner's elite speed is intact, and he should hit his usual .295 with 25/30 and 100/70, with extra juice on his AVG since he doesn't walk much. Turner has no business playing shortstop in the major leagues, but that is not our concern. Take out his little funks, and you can argue Lindor as MVP every year … only you can't, and his funks are not so little. Lindor spent the first third of 2024 slashing .210/.274/.379 with 6 SBs. Tongues wagged bitterly, and keyboards dripped venom. Yup, it was bad. Of course, he was fantastic the rest of the way, and now it's all forgotten, and this year Lindor is being pushed into the first round. I'm taking the middle ground, so if he's available late in Round 2, I'll take him. I have to knock off a couple of bucks due to the high likelihood of injury, but if he's healthy, he'll probably be a little better. Neto may not be ready for the start of the 2025 regular season because of surgery on his throwing shoulder. I'll rank him for a full season, and you can discount accordingly. Neto's Statcast batting charts are all varying shades of blue, which is misleading since he was slightly above average in Barrel%, Squared-up% and xSLG. Obviously, he showed above-average power at the age of 23. His 74% sprint speed argues that 30 SBs are his for attempting. Advertisement So often, the metrics are descriptive but not predictive. Most hitters are trying to get better. Often they do, sometimes they get worse, and of course, all hitters eventually get worse. In Neto's case, he loves the ball middle-out and down and struggles with pitches up and in. This is the 7,789th iteration of this particular variant in baseball history (I made that up). That's his battle. Given his youth and starting from 23.3% Ks, I'd say he has a good chance to maintain, with a decent shot to improve — and improvement from 23/30 is beautiful. But I ain't bidding him up if he's going to miss time — I will deeply discount him at the slightest tremor of delay. Abrams remains unpolished — a little backward and a little forward — and his team showed their displeasure at the end. Some players need a pat on the back, and some need a kick in the rear. I agree with Keith Hernandez: Abrams is a good hitter when he's not trying to hit a home run. He certainly chases too much. His Statcast hitting charts are all blue, yet he hit 29 doubles, 6 triples and 20 home runs in 135 games. Again, I'd say those charts are more symptom than cause, which is not predictive of a breakout, but the chances are better than slim. Speed is there — 81% sprint speed — and 30 SBs are pretty automatic. Abrams should not be at the top of a lineup, but he bats there anyway, so he's also got a Runs floor. His 2024 ADP of 38 was too high and has dropped more than two rounds (No. 65) in early 2025 drafts. That 20/30 exerts a magnetic pull. But before I pay up, I want to see some selectivity in the spring. Cruz didn't play any better in centerfield (where he also qualifies), but that's understandable. Elite hard hits battle poor swing decisions to something resembling a draw. He can easily steal 30+ bases, but it's not bettable. Cruz is a good low-ball hitter, but they get him out up. That must change to reach real stardom. At age 26, he's currently a better fantasy player than a real player. Bichette's five-year BABIP of .349 fell to .269 in 2024, as he played hurt (calf injury, broken finger). At age 27, he is a prime rebound candidate. Don't expect more than 5 SBs, but his baseline is .290 with plenty of doubles and 20+ HRs in a prime lineup slot. McLain also qualifies at second base, where he will presumably be drafted in most leagues. The natural inclination might be to give him a mulligan for his missing season, and he did play in the Arizona Fall League. He did OK in his 13 AFL games, but 21 Ks in 59 PAs is disturbing. That league is hardly chock-full of major league pitchers. True, a 28.5% K rate did not stop him in the majors in 2023, but it looks unlikely that McLain can get much higher than .250 at his current skill level. The 30/30 capability remains, and 25/25 looks baseline, so if his early ADP of 115 holds up, he's very much in play, but he figures to creep up once he starts playing. See where he's hitting in the order before paying up. Tovar wages a bitter battle with Ceddanne Rafaela for the worst plate discipline in the game, yet both are good players. Tovar is a year younger, playing most of 2024 at age 22, and that probably matters in the comparison. It might be too much to hope for the immediate swing-and-miss improvement that would make Tovar a Coors Field superstar, but it's not hoping too much to expect the same numbers with a few more SBs. And even a slight K/BB improvement can easily get him to .290 with 30/20 and 100/100. Advertisement Nine of last year's top 25 SB totals came from late-drafted or undrafted players. It happens every year, more or less. Edwards (31 SBs), Victor Robles (34) and Jacob Young (33) were obvious reserve picks last year. José Caballero (44) beat them all but was perhaps not so easy to spot, although once the Rays acquired him in the absence of Wander Franco, he was staring us in the face. If I need speed late, I will reach a little for Johan Rojas, Jose Siri or Caleb Durbin and take Nasim Nuñez or Luisangel Acuña as a reserve. And those five do not exhaust the possibilities. Granted, Edwards has no power, but you can work around that if the guy steals 50+ bases. He should also be an asset in both AVG/OBP and Runs. He possesses a good eye, makes good contact and uses the whole field with 74% grounders plus line drives. Forget his hard-hit rate. His game is his .389 BABIP. He hit leadoff, and in the 112 PAs they've given him against lefties, his OBP is .378. He also stole those 31 bases (he was caught stealing just four times) in 70 games. On what basis do his projections call for a .282 AVG (Steamer)? Edwards hit .313 in 461 minor league games, getting better as he rose. He's hit .321 in the majors in 367 PAs. See what odds you can get on a batting title. The only cloud on his horizon is that Edwards is not a good shortstop, but maybe he can improve since we can't expect the Marlins to come to their senses and move him. It doesn't make sense to bat Volpe leadoff, where his OBP was .288. He significantly improved his contact, sacrificing a little slugging but not much. To be a really good hitter, though, he needs to get his Ks under 20%. His speed is real, his power is at least decent, and he doesn't turn 24 until April. In DFS, if you see Volpe leading off against a ground-ball pitcher with a bad bullpen behind him, lefty/righty and home/road splits don't matter, get him on your roster. Advertisement Pena is still only scratching the surface of his 98th-percentile speed, so when looking for players to double their SB totals, Pena is high on the list. Otherwise, he looks stable at current levels, with a big year not farfetched at age 27. His career year came at the right time. It's tempting to write it off or at least discount it, but the Hard Hits back him up, as does the power to all fields. His surprise 21 SBs (at 84% success) came with less speed, which makes them more authentic in my book, as they are gained with acumen and technique rather than speed. Adames can't hit for much more than .250 with his consistent 25% Ks, but that will do. Or rather, it would do, were he in another home park, but Oracle Park will cost him AVG and 5 HRs if he's lucky — 10 HRs if he's not. Winn has plenty of speed but hasn't run often or well, which is why his ADP isn't higher than 171. For what it's worth, over the winter, Winn spoke of upping his steals this year. Serious question: Which means more, his low 32.8% Hard Hit rate or his 32 doubles, 5 triples, and 15 home runs? Obviously, the rate did not prevent the totals, so the issue becomes whether the rate is his floor or the totals his ceiling. Given that Winn did it at age 22, pre-peak for strength, I'll bet the rate is low. At the very least, it's not going lower. His unexploited speed adds a little safety to the bet. Swanson is a pretty good, boring regular who still swings at too much but retains plenty of bat-to-ball ability. He has decent speed but is far from a burner. That said, he likes to run and is good at it. Last year, Story was the forgotten man who returned in September to post .270/.361/.429 with 5 SBs in 18 games. It's still possible that the past three years have been bad luck. For one thing, he still has his speed, and for another, players of his caliber don't usually fall off the earth at age 29. After 200 players are gone, he's worth a shot. Advertisement He doesn't have much power/speed, but in 337 minor-league PAs, Wilson hit .401. In 103 major-league PAs, he struck out only 10 times. Add his pedigree (sixth overall pick in 2023), and Wilson can hit .300 right out of the gate, with an over/under of about .285. He takes some walks and could, therefore, soon be batting leadoff or second. I like him in AL-only leagues — he's far more stable than your basic 23-year-old rookie. He's unlikely to be more than a hole-filler in mixed leagues, but it won't be much of a surprise if Wilson surprises. Correa had a nice bounce-back in 2024 but missed even more time than usual. Still capable of a big four-category year (he hasn't stolen a base since 2019), Correa is almost certainly a mixed-league asset when he's playing. Perdomo stayed under the radar by missing much of the first half of 2024. He's power-limited but capable of pushing .300 a time or two, with 25 SBs. He's a good reserve pick in mixed leagues. Fitzgerald bloomed late at age 27, but how about the fourth-best (100%) sprint speed in the league (30.0 feet per second) and the 15 HRs while hitting .280 in 96 games, half of them in a terrible home park. Sign me up. But he had 31.7% Ks and tailed off in September — .677 OPS with 37.2% Ks. Fitzgerald is one of the tougher calls of 2025, which means get him somewhere but not everywhere. His sprint speed is very low (13%), but he stole a few bases. A switch-hitter, Lee struggled but did some damage, too. He was far from overmatched at 14.6% Ks, and while some (respectable opinions) have questioned his power, he hasn't backed off with the pop. He has the chance for high-average power as soon as this year. It's not bettable, of course, but solid to average across-the-board contribution is, says me. Crawford has one of the biggest home/road splits I've ever seen for someone not on the Rockies: .480 at home, .762 on the road. He missed time with an oblique injury and a broken pinky, probably played hurt, and I'm pretty sure he's better than this. He doesn't have great shakes as a category player, even at his best, but I'll pay a certain amount for the leadoff hitter on any team. Caballero helped Roto squads last year because he didn't cost anything, but chances are he won't play as much because he is not a good hitter. And while he has defensive versatility, he was not a good shortstop (he also qualifies at 2B and 3B). Only necessity granted him 139 games, and you can bet the Rays will not stand pat. Advertisement Acuña's major league cup of coffee was way better than his Triple-A numbers, including just 6 Ks in 40 PAs. But then his minor league K rate was good at 16.4%, and he didn't chase in the majors (26.7% O-zone swings). Playing this season at age 23, the speedster looks ready for the biggest stage. Even assuming he is humbled at times, it's pretty easy to see a CJ Abrams season from a reserve pick. Injuries derailed Lawlar again in 2024, but he played winter ball, so he's currently healthy. He's continued to flash five-category upside when on the field. He should force his way into the lineup this year, but I said that last year. Mayer handled Double A at age 21. He has the lefty hit tool with power and will throw in a few steals. Mayer is just one injury away from being with Boston, and even if he's not ready, Mayer won't kill you. Meidroth had more walks than strikeouts in three minor league seasons. He doesn't offer much power but can steal some bases. With a good spring, he'll likely be a regular and, very possibly, a leadoff hitter. Nuñez offers your basic 78 SBs per 150 games, plus a 15.9% walk rate in four minor league seasons. Of course, there's no power, but also not much of a hit tool so far. If he plays good defense, he makes a pretty good major league No. 9 hitter, which is not really damning with faint praise. On the Nationals, Nuñez would have to play third base unless there is an injury or some change of plan. One way or another, he's a good bet to see action. Montgomery offers good lefty pop but a disappointing year at Triple-A Charlotte. I figure that he will start there again, although a big spring would be big news for the White Sox and would probably win him a job. It's just doubtful he'll make enough contact. For what it's worth, Montgomery is on the board as a Rookie of the Year candidate (at 25-1), while Chase Meidroth is not. (Top photo of Bobby Witt Jr.: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)
