Profiling the top 27 shortstops, and rookies to watch for fantasy baseball 2025

New York Times

03-03-2025

The rankings for the shortstops listed here are for standard 5×5 Roto leagues (mixed universe). This format may be obsolete for those who play Points leagues, Head-to-Head, Best Ball, DFS or sim games. I try to note where format makes a difference, but it's called 'standard' for a reason, and we have to start somewhere.
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These rankings are for 2025 only. I ranked the players at the position they played the most but tried to note when they qualify elsewhere — and often, it makes more sense to draft them elsewhere.
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Witt has a clear path to being even better this year if he chases the ball less. We saw the greatest season in Roto history last year from Shohei Ohtani, and this guy could get there with fewer home runs, maybe, but more stolen bases and a higher batting average. Witt is, after all, the fastest player in baseball. Given that Ohtani is pitching this year and Ronald Acuña is hurt, I'll take Witt if I get the first pick in a Roto draft. In a Best Ball or Points leagues, I'd take Aaron Judge.
I can't see a good case for a decline in any of De La Cruz's category stats. Perhaps batting average, with his 31.3% Ks, but then his career .350 BABIP is not irrational to expect. Elly has suffered from what might be termed Aaron Judge Syndrome — pitches below his knees get called strikes when they're not because his knees are higher. The umps pretty much stopped doing it to Judge, and we can safely assume they want to get their calls right, right? Right. ('It's the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine…')
There's also the distinct possibility that De La Cruz will take another step up. By playing regularly in the majors at age 21 (20, actually), he has better than a one-third chance to make the Hall of Fame. If he stays healthy, it's higher than that. There's no guarantee he will explode this year or next, but with Ronald Acuña's injury, Elly is the clear favorite to lead the majors in steals while hitting a baseline 25 home runs with 100 runs. Arguably, De La Cruz is the No. 1 pick of 2025, but I'll take Witt's big, apparent batting-average edge over Elly's smaller, apparent stolen-base edge.
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Henderson has your basic Hall of Fame trajectory at age 24. He has to stay healthy, but given that, we can expect him to duplicate and, indeed, exceed his 2024 campaign for about 12 more years.
In a mixed league, you can find someone to fill in when Betts is hurt, but good luck in an NL league. His stolen bases bounced back in 2024 (16, his highest since 2019) as did his HardHit% (42.9% compared to 39.5% the year before). Still a first-rounder, Betts also qualifies (and is probably preferable) in the outfield. He also played 18 games at second base.
Turner's elite speed is intact, and he should hit his usual .295 with 25/30 and 100/70, with extra juice on his AVG since he doesn't walk much. Turner has no business playing shortstop in the major leagues, but that is not our concern.
Take out his little funks, and you can argue Lindor as MVP every year … only you can't, and his funks are not so little. Lindor spent the first third of 2024 slashing .210/.274/.379 with 6 SBs. Tongues wagged bitterly, and keyboards dripped venom. Yup, it was bad.
Of course, he was fantastic the rest of the way, and now it's all forgotten, and this year Lindor is being pushed into the first round. I'm taking the middle ground, so if he's available late in Round 2, I'll take him.
I have to knock off a couple of bucks due to the high likelihood of injury, but if he's healthy, he'll probably be a little better.
Neto may not be ready for the start of the 2025 regular season because of surgery on his throwing shoulder. I'll rank him for a full season, and you can discount accordingly. Neto's Statcast batting charts are all varying shades of blue, which is misleading since he was slightly above average in Barrel%, Squared-up% and xSLG. Obviously, he showed above-average power at the age of 23. His 74% sprint speed argues that 30 SBs are his for attempting.
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So often, the metrics are descriptive but not predictive. Most hitters are trying to get better. Often they do, sometimes they get worse, and of course, all hitters eventually get worse. In Neto's case, he loves the ball middle-out and down and struggles with pitches up and in. This is the 7,789th iteration of this particular variant in baseball history (I made that up). That's his battle. Given his youth and starting from 23.3% Ks, I'd say he has a good chance to maintain, with a decent shot to improve — and improvement from 23/30 is beautiful.
But I ain't bidding him up if he's going to miss time — I will deeply discount him at the slightest tremor of delay.
Abrams remains unpolished — a little backward and a little forward — and his team showed their displeasure at the end. Some players need a pat on the back, and some need a kick in the rear. I agree with Keith Hernandez: Abrams is a good hitter when he's not trying to hit a home run. He certainly chases too much. His Statcast hitting charts are all blue, yet he hit 29 doubles, 6 triples and 20 home runs in 135 games. Again, I'd say those charts are more symptom than cause, which is not predictive of a breakout, but the chances are better than slim. Speed is there — 81% sprint speed — and 30 SBs are pretty automatic. Abrams should not be at the top of a lineup, but he bats there anyway, so he's also got a Runs floor. His 2024 ADP of 38 was too high and has dropped more than two rounds (No. 65) in early 2025 drafts. That 20/30 exerts a magnetic pull. But before I pay up, I want to see some selectivity in the spring.
Cruz didn't play any better in centerfield (where he also qualifies), but that's understandable. Elite hard hits battle poor swing decisions to something resembling a draw. He can easily steal 30+ bases, but it's not bettable. Cruz is a good low-ball hitter, but they get him out up. That must change to reach real stardom. At age 26, he's currently a better fantasy player than a real player.
Bichette's five-year BABIP of .349 fell to .269 in 2024, as he played hurt (calf injury, broken finger). At age 27, he is a prime rebound candidate. Don't expect more than 5 SBs, but his baseline is .290 with plenty of doubles and 20+ HRs in a prime lineup slot.
McLain also qualifies at second base, where he will presumably be drafted in most leagues. The natural inclination might be to give him a mulligan for his missing season, and he did play in the Arizona Fall League. He did OK in his 13 AFL games, but 21 Ks in 59 PAs is disturbing. That league is hardly chock-full of major league pitchers. True, a 28.5% K rate did not stop him in the majors in 2023, but it looks unlikely that McLain can get much higher than .250 at his current skill level. The 30/30 capability remains, and 25/25 looks baseline, so if his early ADP of 115 holds up, he's very much in play, but he figures to creep up once he starts playing. See where he's hitting in the order before paying up.
Tovar wages a bitter battle with Ceddanne Rafaela for the worst plate discipline in the game, yet both are good players. Tovar is a year younger, playing most of 2024 at age 22, and that probably matters in the comparison. It might be too much to hope for the immediate swing-and-miss improvement that would make Tovar a Coors Field superstar, but it's not hoping too much to expect the same numbers with a few more SBs. And even a slight K/BB improvement can easily get him to .290 with 30/20 and 100/100.
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Nine of last year's top 25 SB totals came from late-drafted or undrafted players. It happens every year, more or less. Edwards (31 SBs), Victor Robles (34) and Jacob Young (33) were obvious reserve picks last year. José Caballero (44) beat them all but was perhaps not so easy to spot, although once the Rays acquired him in the absence of Wander Franco, he was staring us in the face.
If I need speed late, I will reach a little for Johan Rojas, Jose Siri or Caleb Durbin and take Nasim Nuñez or Luisangel Acuña as a reserve. And those five do not exhaust the possibilities.
Granted, Edwards has no power, but you can work around that if the guy steals 50+ bases. He should also be an asset in both AVG/OBP and Runs. He possesses a good eye, makes good contact and uses the whole field with 74% grounders plus line drives. Forget his hard-hit rate. His game is his .389 BABIP. He hit leadoff, and in the 112 PAs they've given him against lefties, his OBP is .378. He also stole those 31 bases (he was caught stealing just four times) in 70 games.
On what basis do his projections call for a .282 AVG (Steamer)? Edwards hit .313 in 461 minor league games, getting better as he rose. He's hit .321 in the majors in 367 PAs. See what odds you can get on a batting title.
The only cloud on his horizon is that Edwards is not a good shortstop, but maybe he can improve since we can't expect the Marlins to come to their senses and move him.
It doesn't make sense to bat Volpe leadoff, where his OBP was .288. He significantly improved his contact, sacrificing a little slugging but not much. To be a really good hitter, though, he needs to get his Ks under 20%. His speed is real, his power is at least decent, and he doesn't turn 24 until April.
In DFS, if you see Volpe leading off against a ground-ball pitcher with a bad bullpen behind him, lefty/righty and home/road splits don't matter, get him on your roster.
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Pena is still only scratching the surface of his 98th-percentile speed, so when looking for players to double their SB totals, Pena is high on the list. Otherwise, he looks stable at current levels, with a big year not farfetched at age 27.
His career year came at the right time. It's tempting to write it off or at least discount it, but the Hard Hits back him up, as does the power to all fields. His surprise 21 SBs (at 84% success) came with less speed, which makes them more authentic in my book, as they are gained with acumen and technique rather than speed.
Adames can't hit for much more than .250 with his consistent 25% Ks, but that will do. Or rather, it would do, were he in another home park, but Oracle Park will cost him AVG and 5 HRs if he's lucky — 10 HRs if he's not.
Winn has plenty of speed but hasn't run often or well, which is why his ADP isn't higher than 171. For what it's worth, over the winter, Winn spoke of upping his steals this year.
Serious question: Which means more, his low 32.8% Hard Hit rate or his 32 doubles, 5 triples, and 15 home runs? Obviously, the rate did not prevent the totals, so the issue becomes whether the rate is his floor or the totals his ceiling. Given that Winn did it at age 22, pre-peak for strength, I'll bet the rate is low. At the very least, it's not going lower. His unexploited speed adds a little safety to the bet.
Swanson is a pretty good, boring regular who still swings at too much but retains plenty of bat-to-ball ability. He has decent speed but is far from a burner. That said, he likes to run and is good at it.
Last year, Story was the forgotten man who returned in September to post .270/.361/.429 with 5 SBs in 18 games. It's still possible that the past three years have been bad luck. For one thing, he still has his speed, and for another, players of his caliber don't usually fall off the earth at age 29. After 200 players are gone, he's worth a shot.
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He doesn't have much power/speed, but in 337 minor-league PAs, Wilson hit .401. In 103 major-league PAs, he struck out only 10 times. Add his pedigree (sixth overall pick in 2023), and Wilson can hit .300 right out of the gate, with an over/under of about .285. He takes some walks and could, therefore, soon be batting leadoff or second. I like him in AL-only leagues — he's far more stable than your basic 23-year-old rookie. He's unlikely to be more than a hole-filler in mixed leagues, but it won't be much of a surprise if Wilson surprises.
Correa had a nice bounce-back in 2024 but missed even more time than usual. Still capable of a big four-category year (he hasn't stolen a base since 2019), Correa is almost certainly a mixed-league asset when he's playing.
Perdomo stayed under the radar by missing much of the first half of 2024. He's power-limited but capable of pushing .300 a time or two, with 25 SBs. He's a good reserve pick in mixed leagues.
Fitzgerald bloomed late at age 27, but how about the fourth-best (100%) sprint speed in the league (30.0 feet per second) and the 15 HRs while hitting .280 in 96 games, half of them in a terrible home park. Sign me up. But he had 31.7% Ks and tailed off in September — .677 OPS with 37.2% Ks. Fitzgerald is one of the tougher calls of 2025, which means get him somewhere but not everywhere.
His sprint speed is very low (13%), but he stole a few bases. A switch-hitter, Lee struggled but did some damage, too. He was far from overmatched at 14.6% Ks, and while some (respectable opinions) have questioned his power, he hasn't backed off with the pop. He has the chance for high-average power as soon as this year. It's not bettable, of course, but solid to average across-the-board contribution is, says me.
Crawford has one of the biggest home/road splits I've ever seen for someone not on the Rockies: .480 at home, .762 on the road. He missed time with an oblique injury and a broken pinky, probably played hurt, and I'm pretty sure he's better than this. He doesn't have great shakes as a category player, even at his best, but I'll pay a certain amount for the leadoff hitter on any team.
Caballero helped Roto squads last year because he didn't cost anything, but chances are he won't play as much because he is not a good hitter. And while he has defensive versatility, he was not a good shortstop (he also qualifies at 2B and 3B). Only necessity granted him 139 games, and you can bet the Rays will not stand pat.
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Acuña's major league cup of coffee was way better than his Triple-A numbers, including just 6 Ks in 40 PAs. But then his minor league K rate was good at 16.4%, and he didn't chase in the majors (26.7% O-zone swings). Playing this season at age 23, the speedster looks ready for the biggest stage. Even assuming he is humbled at times, it's pretty easy to see a CJ Abrams season from a reserve pick.
Injuries derailed Lawlar again in 2024, but he played winter ball, so he's currently healthy. He's continued to flash five-category upside when on the field. He should force his way into the lineup this year, but I said that last year.
Mayer handled Double A at age 21. He has the lefty hit tool with power and will throw in a few steals. Mayer is just one injury away from being with Boston, and even if he's not ready, Mayer won't kill you.
Meidroth had more walks than strikeouts in three minor league seasons. He doesn't offer much power but can steal some bases. With a good spring, he'll likely be a regular and, very possibly, a leadoff hitter.
Nuñez offers your basic 78 SBs per 150 games, plus a 15.9% walk rate in four minor league seasons. Of course, there's no power, but also not much of a hit tool so far. If he plays good defense, he makes a pretty good major league No. 9 hitter, which is not really damning with faint praise. On the Nationals, Nuñez would have to play third base unless there is an injury or some change of plan. One way or another, he's a good bet to see action.
Montgomery offers good lefty pop but a disappointing year at Triple-A Charlotte. I figure that he will start there again, although a big spring would be big news for the White Sox and would probably win him a job. It's just doubtful he'll make enough contact. For what it's worth, Montgomery is on the board as a Rookie of the Year candidate (at 25-1), while Chase Meidroth is not.
(Top photo of Bobby Witt Jr.: Ed Zurga / Getty Images)