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21-03-2025
- Sport
- Yahoo
2025 Fantasy Baseball: 60 Undervalued Players, from Jasson Domínguez to Bo Bichette
A little later than I would have preferred, but here are all my favorite picks for 2025, excluding likely first- and second-rounders. Players are listed alongside their placement in my Top 300, their current Yahoo ADP and their NFBC ADP post-March 1. 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Rankings, strategy, sleepers, mock draft results Your one-stop-shop for Rotoworld's preseason fantasy baseball content. Rotoworld Staff, Rotoworld Staff, Willson Contreras - 72nd in Top 300 - 118 in Yahoo - 67 in NFBCGabriel Moreno - 274th in Top 300 - 40% undrafted in Yahoo - 175 in NFBCIván Herrera - 297th in Top 300 - 69% undrafted in Yahoo - 213 in NFBC As always, the caveat here is that NFBC is a two-catcher format, whereas my rankings and Yahoo drafts are set for one-catcher leagues. In spite of that, I actually have the elder Contreras awfully close to his NFBC ADP. I've been guilty in the past of overrating catchers moving to easier positions, thinking it would give them a performance boost not to have to deal with the catcher grind. With Contreras, though, I'm not doing that; I'm projecting him for an .806 OPS that would be lower than any of his marks from the last three years. But I am expecting him to remain healthy and play in 150 games. On those rare occasions that I've failed to land Contreras in drafts, I've been waiting until the very end to get a catcher, probably Moreno. One other name to keep in mind here is Oakland's Tyler Soderstrom; it looks like he could gain five-game catcher eligibility by the end of April, and he might spend the rest of the year as a top-five fantasy catcher. Triston Casas - 89th in Top 300 - 117 in Yahoo - 118 in NFBCSpencer Steer - 96th in Top 300 - 148 in Yahoo - 169 in NFBCMichael Toglia - 99th in Top 300 - 203 in Yahoo - 175 in NFBCChristian Encarnacion-Strand - 161st in Top 300 - 235 in Yahoo - 222 in NFBCTyler Soderstrom - 187th in Top 300 - 81% undrafted in Yahoo - 274 in NFBC Not my favorite position this year. It's scary to me that Toglia rates as my best value pick, because I don't actually believe he'll be very good; I have him hitting a Coors-aided .237/.318/.473. He certainly has plenty of power, and I expect that he'll hit 30 homers if the Rockies give him 600 plate appearances. And I do expect that the Rockies will give him 600 plate appearances, for better or worse. Casas has disappointed as a fantasy first baseman to date, but we're talking about a 25-year-old with a career 125 OPS+ who is set to mostly bat cleanup for a team that plays in one of baseball's best ballparks for offense. He shouldn't be going outside of the top 100. Matt McLain - 65th in Top 300 - 78 in Yahoo - 77 in NFBCJonathan India - 120th in Top 300 - 235 in Yahoo - 231 in NFBCChristopher Morel - 122nd in Top 300 - 63% undrafted in Yahoo - 253 in NFBCMaikel Garcia - 131st in Top 300 - 241 in Yahoo - 202 in NFBCBrandon Lowe - 146th in Top 300 - 218 in Yahoo - 201 in NFBC Two Royals and two Rays. That India is going so late in drafts really surprises me. Leaving Cincinnati hurts some, but Kansas City is another good offensive ballpark, especially for someone who isn't a big home run guy. He's going to lead off in front of Bobby Witt Jr., and he's a better bet to stay healthy while getting a lot of time at DH and in left field. He could go 15 HR/15 SB and rank among the AL leaders in runs. It's less surprising that Morel is going so late, especially since he struggled so mightily after the trade from the Cubs to the Rays. Still, there's a lot of upside here for someone who is basically free in drafts. He's in a better ballpark now, and the Rays are committed to giving him a long look in left field. The talent is there: he ranked in the top 20 in MLB in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate in 2023. Fantasy Baseball: Bold predictions from Rotoworld staff for 2025 MLB season Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews is among the players the Rotoworld Baseball staff believes in for 2025. Rotoworld Staff, Rotoworld Staff, Austin Riley - 18th in Top 300 - 29 in Yahoo - 29 in NFBCAlec Bohm - 82nd in Top 300 - 137 in Yahoo - 158 in NFBCIsaac Paredes - 94th in Top 300 - 164 in Yahoo - 169 in NFBCJosh Jung - 162nd in Top 300 - 212 in Yahoo - 203 in NFBCRyan McMahon - 198th in Top 300 - 65% undrafted in Yahoo - 291 in NFBC The player the Cubs got for Morel last summer makes an appearance here, but only because he was since traded to Houston in the Kyle Tucker deal. Paredes and Wrigley Field were not a match, but the Crawford Boxes will suit him very well. Paredes hit 47 homers in 244 games for the Rays before 2023 and '24, and the left field corner in Houston is even more inviting than Tropicana Field's. He'll hurt a bit in average and steals, but he should be pretty helpful in runs and RBI while hitting high in the Astros lineup. Bohm has driven in 97 runs in back-to-back seasons, but he still could do better while hitting either third or fourth for the Phillies this season. More homers would be nice and are still a possibility, but he'll make a ton of contact while probably hitting with men on base as often as anyone in the league. Oneil Cruz - 25th in Top 300 - 48 in Yahoo - 34 in NFBCCJ Abrams - 35th in Top 300 - 56 in Yahoo - 49 in NFBCBo Bichette - 49th in Top 300 - 102 in Yahoo - 110 in NFBCAnthony Volpe - 56th in Top 300 - 159 in Yahoo - 146 in NFBCEzequiel Tovar - 78th in Top 300 - 132 in Yahoo - 127 in NFBCZach Neto - 114th in Top 300 - 210 in Yahoo - 203 in NFBCJeremy Peña - 139th in Top 300 - 200 in Yahoo -158 in NFBCTrevor Story - 172nd in Top 300 - 244 in Yahoo - 252 in NFBC The Bichette of this spring looks a lot more like the one who hit .298 with 24 homers per year from 2021-23 than the one who was a complete bust in 2024. He's even doing some running, though he's been caught on two of his three steal attempts. He's going to hit either first or fourth for Toronto, and I can scarcely imagine him not being a bargain at his current ADP. Again pulling the ball, Volpe is back swinging more like he did as a rookie than as a sophomore, when he traded power for contact. That he's 24 next month and physically stronger than he was at 22 should lead to greater success, and I think a 30 HR/30 SB season is a real possibility here. Neto would be a top-60 player for me if he weren't coming off shoulder surgery. He could be back before the end of April, and he's a great stash at his current price tag. Josh Lowe - 60th in Top 300 - 178 in Yahoo - 157 in NFBCJasson Domínguez - 61st in Top 300 - 152 in Yahoo - 143 in NFBCGarrett Mitchell - 147th in Top 300 - 60% undrafted in Yahoo - 250 in NFBC Ronald Acuña Jr. - 21st in Top 300 - 35 in Yahoo - 35 in NFBCWyatt Langford - 28th in Top 300 - 53 in Yahoo - 38 in NFBCJames Wood - 33rd in Top 300 - 62 in Yahoo - 50 in NFBCLawrence Butler - 38th in Top 300 - 75 in Yahoo - 56 in NFBCBrenton Doyle - 47th in Top 300 - 81 in Yahoo - 67 in NFBCLuis Robert Jr. - 50th in Top 300 - 106 in Yahoo - 81 in NFBCDylan Crews - 55 in Top 300 - 135 in Yahoo - 113 in NFBCIan Happ - 70th in Top 300 - 134 in Yahoo - 122 in NFBCPete Crow-Armstrong - 105th in Top 300 - 141 in Yahoo - 127 in NFBCByron Buxton - 155th in Top 300 - 236 in Yahoo - 204 in NFBCNolan Jones - 175th in Top 300 - 43% undrafted in Yahoo - 254 in NFBC Steinbrenner Field, the Rays' temporary home for the year, isn't a hitter's haven, but just getting out of The Trop should benefit all of the team's bats, especially the lefties. I'd be high on Lowe regardless, though. His strikeout rate soared last year after his dramatic improvement in 2023, but his contact numbers weren't any worse. He has plenty of pop, and he's proven to be one of the game's best basestealers. It looks like he'll play against most lefties, so he offers five-category potential. I'm stunned about low Domínguez is going after all of the years of hype. With his homer and steal ability, he's not going to need to be particularly good to prove valuable in fantasy leagues. I gather part of the reason that he's going so low is that most of the projections out there have him finishing well shy of 600 plate appearances. But I just don't see why that's the case. I don't have Domínguez towering over the league as a rookie -- my projection calls for a .248/.322/.428 line -- but I do have him getting 600 plate appearances and finishing with 20+ homers and steals. Mitchell has his contact and injury issues, but he's mustered 13 homers and 20 steals in 365 major league plate appearances to date. He might fall into a platoon role at some point, but he should play regularly while Blake Perkins is out and hit in the middle of the Brewers order against righties. He's a great end-game pick. There's a lot of debate about Langford as a third-round pick, but he's in such a great situation; he doesn't need to perform like a superstar in order to return that kind of value while hitting third for the Rangers. ... Wood, Butler and Doyle are also 20 HR/20 SB guys for me. Crews might fall short there in homers, but I think people are underselling his steal potential. He's legitimately one of the fastest guys in the league, and he was 12-for-15 stealing bases in just 31 games after his callup last season. ... Buxton is basically free. When he gets hurt, you can just drop him if you want. He seems good right now, and he's the No. 3 hitter for one of the league's better offenses. Garrett Mitchell, Gavin Williams among Rotoworld staff's most drafted players for 2025 The Rotoworld staff unveil the players they have drafted the most this spring. Rotoworld Staff, Rotoworld Staff, Logan Gilbert - 22nd in Top 300 - 33 in Yahoo - 30 in NFBCJacob deGrom - 34th in Top 300 - 55 in Yahoo - 54 in NFBCTanner Bibee - 57th in Top 300 - 96 in Yahoo - 104 in NFBCCristopher Sánchez - 66th in Top 300 - 174 in Yahoo - 154 in NFBCJoe Ryan - 69th in Top 300 - 112 in Yahoo - 106 in NFBCGeorge Kirby - 71st in Top 300 - ???Spencer Strider - 73rd in Top 300 - 119 in Yahoo - 108 in NFBCBryan Woo - 110th in Top 300 - 136 in Yahoo - 137 in NFBCBrandon Pfaadt - 123rd in Top 300 - 184 in Yahoo - 192 in NFBCReese Olson - 145th in Top 300 - 47% undrafted in Yahoo - 248 in NFBCDrew Rasmussen - 166th in Top 300 - 207 in Yahoo - 256 in NFBCBrandon Woodruff - 160th in Top 300 - 222 in Yahoo - 253 in NFBCJesús Luzardo - 178th in Top 300 - 235 in Yahoo - 233 in NFBCClay Holmes - 180th in Top 300 - 208 in Yahoo - 209 in NFBCJustin Verlander - 222nd in Top 300 - 75% undrafted in Yahoo - 325 in NFBC Some of these ADPs are getting obsolete. Strider is up to 94 in NFBC over the last week. Sánchez is 141. I left off Kirby's ADPs here because of the recent news about his shoulder, but he's 140 in NFBC over the last week. I think it's well worth taking a chance on him. He had similarly described shoulder issues a couple of times earlier in his career and overcame them both times. He was my No. 6 SP prior to the injury. Ryan had been my single favorite SP pick this year, as I wasn't expecting any sort of hangover from last year's teres major strain. However, I am concerned about his velocity drop last time out. He was down about 1-1.5 mph from last year in his spring debut Mar. 6, which seemed fine. However, in his March 17 start, he was down 2.5-3 mph compared to last year. There were no injury concerns mentioned afterwards. Maybe it's a dead-arm period and will prove to be nothing, but I did drop him from 10th to 14th among SPs. Pfaadt wound up with a 4.71 ERA last season, but that came with a 3.61 FIP, a 3.78 xERA and a 3.65 SIERA. He also offers a great deal of win potential as a particularly efficient starter on a team with a strong offense. ... Olson has a 3.75 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate through two big-league seasons, and now he's seen a significant uptick in velocity this spring. He's a top-40 SP for me. Jeff Hoffman - 97th in Top 300 - 121 in Yahoo - 131 in NFBCTrevor Megill - 140th in Top 300 - 131 in Yahoo - 156 in NFBCKenley Jansen - 150th in Top 300 - 161 in Yahoo - 186 in NFBCA.J. Puk - 194th in Top 300 - 213 in Yahoo - 257 in NFBCBeau Brieske - 207 in Top 300 - 93% undrafted in Yahoo - 607 in NFBCMike Clevinger - 228th in Top 300 - 85% undrafted in Yahoo - 585 in NFBC Concern about Hoffman's shoulder reportedly scuttled two deals for the free agent in the offseason, but his stuff has been up to par this spring. I think he'll be a top-10 closer as a Blue Jay. I have Justin Martinez ranked ahead of Puk, and my guess is that he'll wind up leading the Diamondbacks in saves. Still, I fully expect Puk to be one of the game's best relievers, and he should offer some value even if he's limited to 8-10 saves over the course of the year. Brieske is my favorite of the Tigers relievers. Jason Foley might get the call initially, but his velocity has been down a couple miles per hour this spring.
NBC Sports
17-03-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
2025 Fantasy Baseball: Salary Cap League Strategy and Results from NFBC Draft
On Friday, March 14th I entered my first official salary cap draft of the 2025 fantasy baseball season – a $150 Online Auction Championship at the NFBC. For those that are not familiar, it's a 15-team format that utilizes 23 roster spots – 14 hitters (2 Catchers, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, Corner Infield, Middle Infield, 5 OF and Utility) and 9 pitchers. Each team is given $260 to spend during the salary cap draft and the entire 23-man starting roster must be filled out during the salary cap draft. There is then a seven-round reserve draft afterwards. In addition to competing for league prizes in this 15-team league, there is also an overall component in which this team will be competing against all other leagues for overall prizes as well. Over the years in this space and in our draft guide I have already delved deeply into basic strategy for salary cap drafts, but for this article I wanted to give readers a deeper insight into my personal process for these types of drafts. In fact, I'm writing up this first section the day before the draft. Rotoworld Staff, NFBC SALARY CAP DRAFT STRATEGY Let me start out by saying that I'm not the type of drafter who has dollar values for every particular player that will be available in the draft and who goes into the draft simply looking for discounts and to accumulate as much 'value' as I possibly can. I'm someone who believes strongly in getting my guys, and I'm willing to go down fighting with the players that I think are the best options on the board. Entering this draft, or any draft for that matter, I usually start with about 25% of the player pool crossed off my board and around another 25% that I'd only really be interested in at a steep discount. Going into the draft, my plan is to allocate around 59% of my budget on the hitting side ($140) and 41% ($120) on the pitching side. That's slightly more skewed to pitching than the current industry standard, but as you'll see the thought process behind it below, hopefully you'll understand. When building a draft plan for a snake draft or an auction, I usually start out by working backwards. Identifying the lower cost options that I'm comfortable building my team around and then filling in from there to see where I need to spend up or allocate my dollars elsewhere. This year, there are several low-cost starting pitching targets that I want to come out of the draft with – Bowden Francis, Justin Verlander and Matthew Boyd. For this planning exercise, I'm going to look at average auction values (AAV) at the NFBC since the calendar flipped to March to give me an idea on what types of prices I'll need to budget to acquire the players that I want. What's super helpful about that tool is that it provides not only the average, but also the minimum and maximum bid that each player has gone for. At the time of writing this, there data is made up of 18 salary cap drafts that have run during that timeframe. On average, Verlander has gone for $1, with a maximum of $2. We have seen his price start to rise though, as he's moved inside of the top 300 according to average draft position (ADP) since the Main Event drafts have kicked off, so it wouldn't be surprising if it wound up taking $3 to get him. It just depends on when he's nominated in the draft and what type of budget remaining the other players have that may be interested. We're going to put $3 in for him on the sheet and work from there. Boyd is a bit more interesting. He has averaged $2 but has gone anywhere between $1 and $4. That one $4 bid could just be one manager with $4 left over to fill his final SP spot at the end of the draft and he didn't want to leave money on the table. It could also mean that there's genuine interest in Boyd from a particular sect of drafters. We're going to take the AAV and mark him down for $2. I'm pretty confident that for $5 total we should be able to acquire both Verlander and Boyd. Working up from there, we get to Bowden Francis. He's a player that I'm much higher on than the market this season and a player that is a must have for me in this draft. Like Boyd, he's currently running an AAV of $2, though that comes with a min of $1 and a max of $5. There's also one draft where he wasn't even taken which boggles my mind. We're going to go the conservative route again and mark him down for $4. So we have three targets among our seven starting pitcher spots. What about the two RP spots? My favorite target at the position at the moment is Tanner Scott. I trust that Dave Roberts is going to deploy him as their primary closer and that he's going to rack up a plethora of saves while being backed by the best offense in all of baseball. His AAV at the moment is $13 with a min of $11 and a max of $18. The top closers on the board are pulling in much higher totals than Scott's maximum with Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader and Devin Williams all averaging $22 while Edwin Diaz, Mason Miller and Raisel Iglesias each average $21. We'll put $18 down for Scott but hope that we don't have to go quite that high. That also means we could jump into the bidding for Devin Williams if we can get him in that $18-$20 range. My favorite RP2 target all draft season to this point has been Ryan Pressly, and I don't see a reason why that needs to change now. His AAV sits at $9 and we're hopeful that we can get him for anything close to that price. Fallback options if we are forced to pivot could be Kenley Jansen ($10 AAV) or perhaps Kyle Finnegan or Carlos Estevez who are each going for $8. Now we have the bottom half of our rotation and both of our closers mapped out. Let's get to the offense and see if there are any cheap must haves that we can pencil in before figuring out where we really want to allocate our funds. Matthew Pouliot, The first option that stands out to me is Joey Bart. He's someone that I have been targeting everywhere as my second catcher this year and the market price continues to fall on him, making him a nice potential value option. His AAV in these drafts has been $3 with a minimum of $1 and a max of $6. We'll pencil in $4 for now, hoping that we can get him on the cheaper side and reallocate a few of those dollars elsewhere. With that being said though, I could always see myself moving up the board to get a better option as a second catcher if I think the value is there. That's one spot where I'll probably have more flexibility than some others. Another player that I'm very high on at cost that's going for a large bargain according to my board is Paul Goldschmidt. His current AAV is $10 with a min of $7 and a max of $14. As a potential corner infielder for me, I'd love to get him around $10, but at $14 I'm not sure I love it quite as much. We're hoping to land in the $10-$12 range, so we'll mark him down for $11 and adjust from there. The reason that I'm mentioning Goldschmidt as my CI option as because I plan on having my first base position filled already with Freddie Freeman. To me, he's one of the best five category contributors on the entire board and perhaps the top overall first baseman. I thought it was odd when he slid to the middle of the second round to start the draft season and now he's falling even further to the end of the second or into the third round on average. That's utter lunacy. His AAV is $25 with a min of $22 and a high of $29. We'll use that $29 number as our target to ensure that we get him, but hopefully it'll come a few dollars cheaper. The next big target for me on offense is Matt McLain. We have start to see his price rise a bit in recent weeks, but still not to the place that it needs to be for me to look another direction. His AAV is currently $18 with a min of $14 and max of $22. Once again, we'll work off of that max value and adjust from there if we have to. Since I was able to (hopefully) land my final three rotation targets at affordable prices, I'm willing to pay top dollar to acquire one of the top two options on the board at the position, either Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal. I have Skenes a hair ahead of Skubal on my board currently, but they are very close. Both have an AAV of $37 right now while Skenes has gone as high as $39 and Skubal has touched $40. We'll use the $40 as a guide. For the purpose of this auction, I'd be perfectly fine dropping down instead to Corbin Burnes to be my SP2. I think pitching closer to his home in Arizona will do wonders and we've all seen what the revamped cutter did at the end of the 2024 season and it has carried over into Cactus League play. His AAV sits at $24 with a min of $21 and a max of $26. I'm fine putting $27 down and going to there if I have to while still hoping to secure him at a discount. In between my two aces and the arms that I want to acquire at the bottom of my rotation sits Robbie Ray. He has been dominant in each of his first three Cactus League starts and the price on him has started to soar, so it will probably take more than the AAV and probably more than the max bid to get him. We're going to try to fit that in though. Right now his AAV is $10 with a max of $15. We'll pencil in that $15 and adjust from there. That's eight targets on the pitching side with nine spots to fill. Adding up those estimated amounts gets me to $118. Assume the last SP is a $1 guy, and that will give us $119 on the pitching side, just under the $120 that we had budgeted above. I'd be thrilled to get that staff though, and I think some of the estimates are high. Any excess dollars that we wind up with there can be reallocated to the offense. Now to find some additional targets on offense. Lawrence Butler is a player that I have been actively targeting throughout the draft season. The problem, is that his price is on the rise. I can probably fit him in around is AAV ($24) but if he starts to approach his max ($29), I probably have to bow out. I'm going to give me a shot at him for $26 and see what we can do. My top shortstop target, especially in the mid-range, is Bo Bichette. I think in his walk year he's poised for a major bounce back season. Expect a return to his elite batting average and counting stats and I even believe that he's going to start running again to bolster that free agent contract. We're looking to get him around his AAV ($14). Back to the outfield, we're a big believer in everything that Victor Robles showed with the Mariners last season and will gladly take him anywhere near his AAV of $9. So what does that leave us with at the moment? We still need to fill our top catcher, third base, middle infield, three outfielders and utility. All for a grand total of $26. Yikes. Let's hammer out the catcher position because that's the important one here. We would love to be able to get up to Willson Contreras at $19, but if we're building with the huge pitching staff that has Skenes as an anchor, it's probably not in the cards. If we wind up pivoting and take Burnes as our ace, more spending on the catcher position would be in play. Instead, we're going to drop down the list a bit and look at Cal Raleigh. It's still expensive, but he's going to provide huge power production at the position and a handful of stolen bases. He'll be an average drain, sure, but with Freeman and Bichette in tow to help offset that, I think we can make it work. Raleigh for $15. There's a plethora of middle infield options that I like for $1, so I'm not terribly worried about that one. I also like a lot of cheap outfielders at the end of drafts, so I'm confident I can pick up three guys that I like there for $1-3 each if necessary. Same goes for utility. To me, that makes third base the next focus. This one could depend on what my team needs are at the point in the draft that I'd be looking at the position. If I'm short on power, Eugenio Suarez ($8) may be a good fit. If I need unconventional speed, Matt Shaw ($6) is awfully intriguing. If I'm forced to shop in the bargain bin, Ryan McMahon ($3) and Max Muncy ($2) look appealing. In fact, Muncy at $3 may be the play that goes into the plan, and if I have extra dollars to allocate, I can move up from there. For that middle infield spot, we're probably looking in the range of Gleyber Torres ($4), Trevor Story ($4), Thairo Estrada ($3), Colt Keith ($3), Hyeseong Kim ($2) depending on what we can afford and what we need. We'll put Story on the board as the placeholder. That would leave me with three $1 outfielders and a $1 player at utility. Not ideal, but we plan on having excess that we can move there once we lock in a couple of discounts. The bargain bin that I'm hoping to shop from in the outfield includes Michael Conforto ($4), Parker Meadows ($3), JJ Bleday ($3), Trevor Larnach ($2), Daulton Varsho ($2), Max Kepler ($1), Jake Fraley ($1), Tommy Pham ($1) and a host of others. If I can climb higher up the list, my interest would be on Kerry Carpenter ($6). SALARY CAP DRAFT RESULTS And we're back! Most times, even the best laid plans turn out very differently than the final product due to unforeseen events that happen over the course of a draft. While there was a bit of that here, the finished product actually looks strikingly similar to the plan that was outlined above. To make sure of the direction of the team, we called out Paul Skenes as our first bid (seventh overall in the draft). If we couldn't get him for $40, we knew we would have to make a play for Tarik Skubal instead. If we couldn't get Skubal, we'd pivot and shift some funds over to the offense, so just knowing whether or not we could get one of those aces was paramount. Fortunately, we were able to acquire Skenes for $38 and we were off and running. In the second round of nominations we picked up Lawrence Butler as our OF1 for the $26 that we had allocated. So far, so good. The next round of nominations brought us our first closer in Tanner Scott, though we were able to snag him for $14 instead of the $18 that we had dedicated to the spot. Between that and the $2 we saved on Skenes, we now had an extra $6 to move around. In the fourth round of nominations I became intrigued as the bidding started to stall out on Logan Gilbert. I had him down as a $30-$32 player, but we had just $27 budgeted for Corbin Burnes as our SP2. I took a chance and went to $28 and managed to land Gilbert at a pretty significant discount. We now had our SP2. Also in the fourth round of nominations we made a play for Willson Contreras, though he went out of our range at $19. Instead, we went $1 above our budgeted amount and pulled in Cal Raleigh to be our top catcher for $16. In the fifth round of nominations, our top hitting target finally came up for bid. We had budgeted $29 to acquire Freddie Freeman, but it only took $26 to get the job done. That's another $3 to reallocate. We took at shot at using those excess funds on Andres Muñoz as a second closer but came up $1 short when he went for $18. Two picks later, Corbin Burnes came up for bid. He had originally been in our plan as our SP2 for $27, but that changed when we picked up Logan Gilbert unexpectedly. The draft plan called for Robbie Ray to be our SP3 at $15, so it would take all of our surplus and then some if we were going to make a run at Burnes, and we would be sacrificing Ray in the process. We entered into the fray and were shocked to come away with Burnes for only $24. Skenes, Gilbert and Burnes is an absolutely amazing top three, though we would be limited now to the original low-cost targets that we had planned at the position. We continued to push the pace two picks later, grabbing Ryan Pressly as our RP2 for the $8, $1 less than we had budgeted for him. Obviously love the way the team is coming together at this point, though we have spent a large chunk of our budget and would need to pull back the reins at some point. We sat on our hands for a couple of rounds and then nominated Matt McLain during the seventh round. He was our top hitting target remaining and I wanted to find out if we were going to be able to acquire him or if I would need to pivot to other options. We had budgeted $22 for the spot and only needed to go to $20 to secure him. That's a huge win in my book. The next big play that we attempted to make was Bo Bichette. We had planned to acquire him for somewhere close to $14 to man the shortstop position for us – and went as high as $17 – but it wasn't enough to seal the deal. We would need to pivot elsewhere at the position. That pivot materialized in the next round, landing Willy Adames for $12. He's a comparable player to Bichette – if not better – and we got him for $2 less than our original budget for the position. We'll take it. We took a run at a couple of players over the next few rounds, but nothing fit into the budget. It was particularly hard to watch Bryan Reynolds go for just $13. The next bid ended up being another unexpected one. Rather than using our last big spend on offense at the CI position (where we had Paul Goldschmidt slotted for $11), I liked the way that Luis Garcia Jr. fit our current team construction better and grabbed him to be our middle infielder for $11. We then had to watch Robbie Ray go for just $12, with nothing that we could do about it. That one hurt. We took a run at Matt Chapman, but he went for $14. We went to $10 on Adolis Garcia but came up $1 short. We also went to the $9 on Jurickson Profar but couldn't pull the trigger to go to $11. We tried to land Gavin Williams, but he went over our range at $9. A couple of picks later we did add Bowden Francis for the $4 that we had allocated for him. I tried to muster the courage to go an extra dollar to land Eugenio Suarez, but couldn't do it with the limited funds remaining. I regret that one for sure, letting him go by for just $6. Tried to get Parker Meadows, but didn't want to go to $4. Goldschmidt did end up going for the $11 that we had originally budgeted for him, but we couldn't get there. Went to $6 on Randy Arozarena but someone else wound up with a nice discount at $7. Tried to get Scherzer for a few bucks but he went all the way to $7, which had my worried about my ability to acquire Justin Verlander and Matthew Boyd. In the 15th round of nominations we finally got our second outfielder, getting Victor Robles for $8, $1 under our budget. That was a really big get for us, as we needed that speed and outfield was starting to look like a problem area with us needing three more in addition to Robles. In the 16th round our second catcher target Joey Bart came up for bid. We thought budgeting $4 there made it extremely likely that we could get him, but he ultimately went for $6. Part of the problem here, is that there were two teams in the auction that had way too much money left to spend, and even if they landed all of the top options on the board, they were going to finish with a large surplus. That meant that I couldn't really nominate anyone that I actually wanted, as I risked losing them to the two big spenders. In the 17th round we pushed for Ryan Mountcastle and Kerry Carpenter but came up short on both. Carpenter wound up going for $8. Later that round our original target at middle infield, Trevor Story, went for $5. Since we pivoted to Garcia though, we had that spot already locked up. We made a strong bid to land Matt Shaw as our third baseman, but couldn't go to $8 to get him. At this stage, we still had 10 spots left to fill (C2, 3B, CI, OF3, OF4, OF5, UTIL and three pitchers) and only $25 to get it done. That would mean waiting and hoping to score some late discounts while the two managers with all the money grabbed anyone and everyone that they wanted. We bid on JJ Bleday for one of those outfield spots, but bowed out when he got to $4. Tried to get Josh Jung to play third base, but also stepped away when he got to $4. We did wind up getting Max Muncy to play the hot corner for just $2, which is $1 less than we had planned on in the budget. We followed that up with a $2 Matthew Boyd that fit exactly what we had wanted to do with that spot. The more of these spots that were getting filled with players and amounts that we had budgeted in the original plan, the better that I felt about the draft in general. Made several attempts to acquire a second catcher and missed on all of them. That was going to end up being a disaster spot. I'm usually a drafter that pays up for both catcher spots, so having to grab a $1 option at the position and figure it out will be a new challenge for me. In the 21st round of nominations we grabbed our third outfielder finally with Michael Conforto for $5. We then tabbed Kyle Higashioka as our second catcher for $1, though that position is going to rotate most weeks as I churn the waiver wire until something sticks. Somehow also in the 21st round, we were able to snag Jesus Sanchez as our OF4 for only $2. That's a nice discount in general, but even moreso because of how it happened. One of the managers that had all of the money remaining (like $64 or something with one OF spot to fill), nominated Sanchez for $1. I thought going to $2 would be a futile exercise as he would just go as high as he needed to, but it counted down and we scored a deal that we never thought we would get. In the 22nd round I picked up Colt Keith for $3 to be our UTIL to start the season. He's 2B eligible and will gain 1B within the first two weeks of the season though and I liked that extra flexibility in addition to loving the player in general. We nominated and scored Justin Verlander for $1 later in that round. We added Kris Bubic to round out the rotation for $2 and added Trevor Larnach for $2 to the outfield mix. We settled for Josh Bell as our CI for $1, though it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't last long on this team. Overall, we had 18 specific names penciled into the original draft plan. Of those 18, we acquired 13 of them. That's pretty good. We also added a few of the late OF names that we had mentioned, but didn't put particular names into the draft plan. Unfortunately, we committed the cardinal sin of leaving money on the table in this draft. It's something that I absolutely hate doing, though the way this particular draft played out with those two whales left at the end, it was almost unavoidable. I left with $4 in my pocket and would certainly like to go back and dedicate that to a $4 second catcher instead of what I wound up with. DAVID SHOVEIN'S NFBC ROSTER Our biggest weaknesses are obviously the second catcher position, corner infield and the back half of the outfield. This pitching staff should be able to compete with anyone though. I started to attack some of those spots in the reserve rounds, adding Mitch Garver as another early season catcher option. We also added Jake Fraley and Max Kepler to the outfield mix. Every team in a 15-team draft is going to have weaknesses somewhere though, and I'm most comfortable having to find a couple of guys in the outfield. I truly believe that this team should finish in the top third of this league and could put itself into the mix for overall prizes if things break the right way. Here's a look at how the rest of the league fared. Team 1 One of the managers in the league who left a substantial amount of money on the table ($43), it's difficult to envision this squad doing enough to compete. Spending just $14 on starting pitching is certainly a choice. The offense looks alright as a whole, I just can't see this team competing for the podium at the end of the season. Team 2 At a glance, this feels like a middle of the pack team. He overspent at the catcher position compared to AAV, but as we saw when I targeted Bart, there simply wasn't much left and he didn't want to get left out in the cold. His front three starting pitchers feel incredibly light. I also don't think this squad has the requisite speed needed to take down the league. Team 3 Now this team is interesting to me. They dedicated a huge portion of their budget toward their offense, going with a 70/30 build, and they did so with a stars and scrubs approach up there anchored by Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson and William Contreras. Just judging by ADP, he assembled $20 of surplus value on offense, which is a gigantic figure. What intrigues me about this team though is the pitching. Despite the limited budget there, he assembled a high ceiling staff full of high strikeout arms. If they all hit and avoid the injured list, this team should be very competitive not just for the league prizes, but could make some noise in the overall. Team 4 At a glance, this team feels like it should finish in the upper half of the league, but I'm not sure that it has enough juice to win the whole thing. The offense is very solid as a whole, though it does feel light on power – which can be a very difficult category to make up. I like the top two starters, but the rest of the rotation scares me quite a bit. I think he's going to wind up battling his pitching ratios for most of the season which may hold him back from really competing. Team 5 Just looking at the difference between AAV and the prices that they got, it would appear that Team 5 did well for himself – especially on the pitching front where he got a surplus of $14 by hammering the arms in the middle of the draft. I'd be a bit leery of trusting Roki Sasaki to be my ace, but that's just a personal preference. He chose to spread the wealth on offense with a steady, balanced approach. Wyatt Langford is his most expensive hitter at $26, and I'm actually bummed that I didn't go the extra dollar there. At the time I was still waiting on Lawrence Butler and didn't want to give him up to make a play for Langford. This should be a competitive team. Team 6 This is another team that's fascinating to me. He devoted over 75% of his budget to the hitting side, and even paid a premium for most of his hitters – and it definitely shows. That outfield has the potential to be legendary if all three of the perennially injured players (Trout, Robert Jr. and Buxton) remain healthy. The pitching side has me concerned though. Obviously it's going to be a bit weaker if you're only devoting 24.24% of your budget there, but purposely taking Max Scherzer as your SP3 is a choice. There's a ton of injury risk in all five of his starting pitchers, and I'm not sure that going with four closers was the best strategy if underspending on pitching. I see major concerns in wins and strikeouts and the ratios are no guarantee either. Team 8 Now this is a scary team to compete against. Team 8 utilized a similar split to me, with 51.15% dedicated to offense and 48.85% on the pitching side. He went full stars and scrubs on offense, with Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. carrying the team and no other player over $7. I have to hope that the rest of his offense struggles and that he's unable to find viable replacements for those that don't perform enough. The pitching is terrific, as you'd expect with that much dedicated to it. Four strong horses atop the rotation and if deGrom says healthy that group is going to be awesome. Best closer duo in the league so far with Hader and Williams. This is a very good team and should compete for the league prizes at a minimum. Team 9 At first glance, Team 9 has plenty of power to spare on what looks like it could be a very strong offense. My only concern is speed. Even with Jacob Young, it feels light overall in the category, and if Young ends up losing his job with the Nationals it could wind up being a real problem. The starting rotation is alright, though the particular players that he chose aren't exactly my cup of tea. Saves feel like they're in a questionable place as well. He grabbed both arms from the Diamondbacks in the hopes of getting the closer there, so for his sake I hope that there's clarity to the role early in the season, because you don't really want to be starting both of them at the same time. Team 10 The first thing that you notice with Team 10 is that he left $11 on the table, but made up for it a bit by gaining $11 in surplus value. Would've been fun to see what he could have done with another $11 in play though. The offense is outstanding, as there is plenty of power and speed up and down the order with no one or two players being counted on to carry the load. The pitching on the other hand is a work in progress. I like Logan Webb and Robbie Ray each quite a bit, but relying on them to be my SP1 and SP2 would make me panic. He also chose to ignore the closer position almost completely, grabbing a $1 Jason Foley as an endgame option. He's going to have to dedicate quite a bit of FAAB towards finding saves while also attempting to add arms to a rotation that still needs strikeouts. Either that or he punts saves completely and rolls eight or nine starters all year. Team 11 For starters, I love the balance on offense from this team. Every single player on the roster could hit 15 or more home runs and there are five or six guys that should contribute 20 or more stolen bases. That's the type of balance that I strive for in every draft. I'm not in love with the pitching staff though. Garrett Crochet is fine as an ace, but I'm not trusting Luis Castillo and Justin Steele as my SP2 and SP3 – and it gets even worse behind there. Love Raisel Iglesias as an RP1 but not taking a second closer is a bold strategy, especially after locking in Iglesias. Team 12 The power is very strong on this offense, which is impressive considering it contains Luis Arraez and Maikel Garcia bringing the total down. That's what happens when you build a killer base with Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Salvador Perez. The pitching staff is much more of a work in progress, despite having Tarik Skubal as an anchor at the top. He only drafted five starters and is counting on a full season from Shane McClanahan who is coming back from Tommy John surgery. He took several shots at a second closer to pair with Jhoan Duran, so he'll need at least one of those three to land a job to compete in the saves category. Team 13 I'll be honest, this team scares me. Team 13 was assembled by a drafter who I have competed against for many years and whose game I truly respect, and it shows in the squad that he was able to assemble here. He was able to grab $36 of surplus value when compared to the AAV which is completely absurd. The pitching staff is a work of art, with five pseudo aces to lead the staff plus George Kirby waiting in the wings. The only thing he's missing is a second closer, and I hope for my sake that Yates doesn't steal the role in Los Angeles. The offense is very strong as well from top to bottom, with speed for days and plenty of power to go with it. This team should be in the mix at season's end for sure. Team 14 To put it gently, this team struggled badly with this draft. It's unclear if he was dealing with some sort of personal emergency or just wasn't prepared, but he left a whopping $64 on the table – 24.61% of his total budget. It's just impossible to compete when you're doing that. To make matters worse, he also overspent by $22 according to AAV, but some of that was having money to burn and no one good enough to spend it on. The pitching staff has some upside and if Strider can give him five healthy months, there's a chance that he can make it work. I'm not sure how the offense survives though. The outlook there is very bleak. There's nowhere close to enough speed, the power is light and there's a ton of batting average risk as well. I'd be shocked if this team didn't finish in the bottom third of the league. Team 15 Team 15 is another squad that assembled a very strong unit on the offensive side of the ball. The power, batting average and counting stats are definitely there. I do have some concerns over them getting to the necessary total in stolen bases. On the pitching side, Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez make for a very strong 1-2 punch at the top. There's not a whole lot behind them though. I think the rotation will end up being a major concern. He also has just one solid closer with the hope that maybe Chad Green sees the save chances with the Blue Jays. This team feels like it should be somewhere in the middle of the pack. Here's an overall breakdown of the spend and the hitting/pitching split for each team in the draft. I've also included the surplus value or deficit that each had against ADP and showed the ridiculous amount of money that was ultimately left on the table in this draft. CONCLUSION: While I felt awful about contributing my $4 excess dollars to that total, it's hard to justify what Team 1 and Team 14 kept in their pockets. Both teams will have a very hard time digging out of the hole that they put themselves in after the draft. I feel like the team that I assembled here is good enough to compete. My strategy is to plan out my draft beforehand and attempt to execute that plan. That's very different than a drafter like Team 13 who attacks the draft with patience and takes the values that the draft gives them. That's why he ended up with such a large surplus value against ADP and I had a small deficit. My guys are huge bargains based on my valuations, just not by AAV – which is why I targeted those particular players. In the end, we'll find out which strategy was the best when we see the standings at the end of the season. Thanks for following along. Hopefully you can take some insight from here into your own salary cap drafts over the next few weeks as we creep closer to Opening Day.
NBC Sports
06-03-2025
- Sport
- NBC Sports
Breakout hitters for 2025 fantasy baseball: Why Dylan Crews, Kyle Manzardo could be ready to thrive
Last year, I started this column to find the next Josh Lowe. The idea was to prevent us from having 'The One Who Got Away' when we give up on a player we like too early. Josh Lowe was one of my favorite young breakout hitter picks in 2022, but he struggled to start the year and was demoted a few times, so I was tentative about drafting him in 2023. Of course, that year he hit .292 with 20 home runs and 32 steals, and I was crying into my pint of ice cream at the end of the night. I figured that if we looked at highly regarded prospects who failed to live up to expectations in their MLB debuts but had solid underlying metrics, we might be able to more easily identify which players not to give up on. Last year's article brought me to Lawrence Butler, Zach Neto, Brenton Doyle, and Jordan Westburg. Unfortunately, my choice for the 'next Josh Lowe' was Parker Meadows. Still, the exercise proved useful, so we're going to do it again. Rotoworld Staff, The criteria for what makes somebody the 'Next Josh Lowe' is that they made their debut in the previous season, had at least 100 MLB plate appearances, and had an offensive WAR under 1.0. That means no Jasson Dominguez, who had only 67 MLB at-bats, or Coby Mayo, who had 46 at-bats last year. That also means no Heston Kjerstad or Tyler Soderstrom, who had offensive WARs over 1.0. I also looked for players who were legitimate prospects, either making top 100 lists or featured inside their own team's top 100. The next step was my personal sorting. I looked beyond the surface-level stats (since the point is that they would have been bad), and ooked at barrel rate, max exit velocity, swinging strike rate, chase rates, and overall contact to get a sense of who has a workable approach at the plate and who was able to make solid contact overall contact. Even in Lowe's bad 2023 call-up, he had an O-Swing% under 30%, a slightly above league average SwStr%, a 5.2% barrel rate, and good minor league batted ball data, so there were hints at a viable fantasy profile (especially since we knew his scouting report). When all that was done, I had six players who could be the 'next Josh Lowe,' two players who won't start out of spring training, and one player who technically fit the criteria but is being drafted far too high right now. For me, part of being 'the next Josh Lowe' is about somebody drastically outperforming their ADP value after a tough rookie season, so I guess ADP is the final component. We'll go through the case for each of these hitters, and then I'll anoint the next breakout hitter at the end of the article. (All ADP information is taken from NFBC Online Championship 12-team drafts from February 12th to March 5th - 36 drafts) Potential Young Hitter Breakouts Name Team Ben Rice NYY Dylan Crews WSN Kyle Manzardo CLE José Tena Addison Barger TOR Junior Caminero TBR Jackson Holliday BAL Colt Keith DET Evan Carter TEX That's 11 names who, mostly, passed the benchmarks I put in place. I will admit that both Junior Caminero and Jackson Holliday were well below average in swinging strike rate and overall contact rate, but they are also far and away the two highest-profile prospects on this list, so I felt it was warranted to keep them in the article to discuss them in more detail. However, I will not discuss José Tena, since it seems Paul DeJong will be the starting third baseman in Washington, and I won't discuss Addison Barger because he's not expected to make the Blue Jays opening day roster after their off-season additions. Both of them are names to keep in the back of your head if they get a chance. That leaves... As I mentioned above, I'm writing about Caminero here because he's worth a discussion, but he won't be my choice because part of the criteria is 'outperforming their ADP value after a tough rookie season.' I just can't see Caminero surpassing this aggressive ADP. In fact, if we're going just by surface-level stats, Caminero failed to qualify in three of the five criteria areas based on last year's numbers. His swinging strike rate (SwStr%) was higher than the league average, as was his 38.6% chase rate, and his 70.3% contact rate was below league average. Still, we know how good Caminero is, and we know he was battling injuries last year, so it seemed necessary to keep him on here. In 2024, Caminero battled through multiple leg injuries to hit .274/.337/.521 with 16 home runs in 59 games at Triple-A. When he finally did get a chance to get consistent MLB at-bats, he was far more aggressive than he had been in the minors and posted a 14% SwStr%. We should expect that to correct itself, but he has been about a 12% SwStr% hitter in the minors, so it wouldn't be a shock if that settles around 13% or higher in the big leagues. While that's below average, it's not below average for somebody that hits the ball as hard as Caminero does. He only pulled the ball 37% in his MLB sample size last year, but he's been about a 43% pull rate guy in the minors, and we know the Rays loved pulled fly balls, so I expect Caminero to get back to that rate in 2025. That means there is real power upside if he can dial back his 50% groundball rate. In spring training he is currently sporting a 79% fly ball rate, which is comically high, but I do think shows us that he is working to try and put the ball in the air more than he did last year. The Rays figure to start him regularly at third base, where he has a baseline as a .260 hitter with 25-30 home run power in their minor league stadium in 2025. That alone would make him worthy of being considered for this 'title,' but the lineup around him isn't great, and he;s unlikely to steal more than about five bases this season, which means it's hard to see him really out-producing an ADP that already has him going as essentially a top 70 player. I don't have any issues with Caminero; I just don't think he's going to be a major draft value for us in 2025. Holliday is the other massive name on this list, given that he came into 2024 as the number one prospect in baseball. However, his ADP is far more likely to result in draft you believe in Jackson Holliday for 2025. Holliday made his MLB debut in 2024, but things didn't go as well as many hoped for the top prospect in baseball. He hit .059/.111/.059 in his first 36 plate appearances with a 50% strikeout rate and was demoted to Triple-A early in the season. While he was slightly better in the second half after being called back up, he only hit .218/.285/.365 with five home runs and a 30% strikeout rate in his final 172 plate appearances. It should be noted that he didn't exactly tear up Triple-A either, hitting a solid .271/.431/.477 with 10 home runs and eight steals in 73 games. The high walk rate was great to see, and he's never run high swinging strike rates in the minors, so I don't think the MLB strikeout rate is sticky, but he didn't really do anything last year that makes me think he's going to be a well above-average MLB player in 2025 as a 21-year-old. He only checked the boxes in one criteria based on last year, his chase rate. His barrel rates and max exit velocities weren't bad, but he also posted a 55% groundball rate in his MLB at-bats and a 48% rate in Triple-A, so that will severely cap his power ceiling if his average exit velocities are around 89 mph. The future is likely bright for Holliday, but he'll be 21 years old this season and looked overmatched against MLB pitching for much of last year. The Orioles are also a team with World Series aspirations and plenty of talented infield prospects, so Holliday, who has only played 92 career games at Triple-A, could still run the risk of being demoted if he starts the season struggling again. I'm just not sure I feel good enough about his prospects in 2025 to predict a real breakout. Crews was third on the list of players above, surpassing the criteria in three of the five categories. All of his swinging strike rate, chase rate, and contact rate were above league average last year despite his underwhelming .218/.288/.353 slash line. Additionally, the only criteria where Crews missed was with a 6.4% barrel rate; however, the league average was 6.9%, and Crews only had 132 plate appearances, so it's not as if he displayed a skill that was clearly below the league average. Crews' 34% hard-hit rate in Triple-A last year suggests that quality contact is well within his range of outcomes, and his overall Process stats were above average for almost the entirety of his MLB action. I like that he doesn't chase out of the zone, with just a 29.5% O-Swing%, and his poor average had nothing to do with swinging and missing, since his SwStr% was just 9.9%. His overall contact rate of 77.6% is appealing for a rookie in his first taste of MLB pitching, and I appreciate that his pull rate stayed consistent with what he showed in the minors. His fly ball rate was also fairly consistent with what we've seen in the minors, but his groundball rate jumped while his line drive rate plummeted to just 10%. The difference in squaring up a baseball to be a line drive versus a groundball is so minuscule, and I think that's an adjustment that Crews can make in another big league season. I also love that he plays for a Washington team that is embracing their young talent, so there really isn't a scenario where Crews is taken out of the starting lineup this season. I think he has the potential to hit about .250-.260 with 18 home runs, 140 Runs+RBI, and 30 steals while getting over 600 plate appearances in Washington, and that could make him solid value at pick 115, but his ADP has been rising of late, so I'm not sure just how much he'll 'outproduce' that. Keith had far and away the most opportunities of anybody on this list last year, getting 556 plate appearances for the Tigers while hitting .260/.309/.380 with 13 home runs and seven steals. All of which led to a -1.9 offensive WAR. For the vast majority of the season, Keith's process was above average. That makes sense for a hitter who had just a 10.5% SwStr% with a 78.5% contact rate in his rookie season. He does chase out of the zone a bit more than we'd like, but he did that in the minors, and that's mainly him chasing pitches on the fringe of the strike zone that he can make contact with. I'd love him to be a little more selective to unlock some more power, but it's not a bad approach. You can just see him falling off over the final four to six weeks of the season, which makes sense, considering he had played over 70 games in a pro season just once, and it was the 126 games he played in 2023. Playing 148 games is a major grind, and we see plenty of young guys wear down. Before that slump at the end, his barrel rate was just under the league average, and he was pulling and lifting the ball at a similar rate to what he did in the minors. His strikeout rate was also over 2% lower, and his walk rate was up a bit, even though the season-long numbers there don't concern us. His 109.4 max exit velocity suggests there is some power in his profile, but even in Triple-A, when he posted a 35% hard hit rate, his average exit velocity was just 88.7 mph. Given that his fly ball rates are usually around 40%, and he plays in Comerica Park, which suppresses power, it's hard to see Keith emerging as more than a 15-homer bat at the big league level. He should post a solid batting average and good on-base percentage, but he also has never stolen more than seven bases in a season, so is that the profile of a hitter who can drastically outperform this ADP and be a major fantasy value for us? Carter has taken a roundabout way onto this list because he looked like a major stud in his 23-game sample in 2023 before hitting just .188/.272/.361 in 45 games in 2024 before having surgery to fix a stress reaction in his back. Anytime you see a back injury that requires surgery, you have to worry about the long-term outlook of a hitter, given how rotational the activity is. Yet, in his 68-game MLB sample, Carter has checked the box in four criteria for this article that make him a good candidate for the 'Next Josh Lowe.' In that sample, Carter has a 7.1% barrel rate, 9% SwStr%, 16.4% chase rate, and 75.4% zone contact rate. All of those are league average or better. The only place where he lags behind is his 108.7 mph max exit velocity, which suggests there may be some limit to his power ceiling. He also posted just a 21.8% hard-hit rate in 530 plate appearances in the minor leagues in 2023, so it's not as if he has a long minor league track record of hitting the cover off the ball. The other issue is that, in his small 40 plate appearance MLB sample size, he's hitting just .111/.172/.111 against left-handed pitching with a 34.5% strikeout rate. Josh Lowe had similar issues with platoon splits, so Evan Carter could still be the winner here even if he only hits against right-handed pitching, but it does make it a bit harder for him. We also need to see that he'll continue to run despite the back surgery. If his ceiling is as a 15 home run hitter, then we need him to retain that 25 stolen base speed to really give us fantasy value. Considering the Rangers are likely to platoon him, Carter could easily hit .260 this season with 15 home runs, so if the speed is there and he can get 20+ steals in over 500 plate appearances against mainly right-handed pitching, that's a compelling case to be our choice at the end of the article. I spent some time with Manzardo in spring training this year and talked to him a bit about the adjustments he made last year that led to his solid September and October performance. In 83 Triple-A games in 2024, Manzardo hit .267/.398/.548 with 20 home runs, an 18.4% strikeout rate, and a 16.8% walk rate. While his first stint in the big leagues didn't go well, slashing .270/.333/.540 with five home runs in 23 games in September to end the regular season. Both Manzardo and Guardians manager Stephen Vogt talked openly about the team putting Manzardo in a difficult decision of going from playing the field every day in the minors to only DHing and pinch-hitting in the big leagues. I think we have to account for that adjustment period when evaluating why Manzardo became more successful in his second stint with the big club. In his 156 plate appearance MLB sample size, Manzardo posted a 9.5% barrel rate, 11.1% SwStr%, and 29.3% chase rate. That cleared three of our five criteria for this article, and his 73.4% contact rate was just under the mark we were looking for. We should note that, even in his strong month of September, that contact rate was just 72.7%, so he was under the league average mark in both MLB stints. What I do like about that second MLB stint is that Manzardo's walk rate improved to nearly 9%, which is closer to the hitter he was in the minors. His average exit velocity increased only slightly to 89.2 mph, but his barrel rate rose to 11.1% in part because he reduced his fly ball rate a bit and increased his pull rate to 49%, which seemed to suggest that he was getting more comfortable in the batter's box and looking to turn on the ball a little bit more. In that sense, I think Manzardo could be a good value at this draft cost. Vogt has openly mentioned that Carlos Santana will get most of the work at first base, which means Manzardo might not pick up that eligibility in most league types for a long time. However, he should start against all right-handed pitchers and is a good bet to hit .260-.270 with 20+ home runs and 120 Runs+RBI hitting in the middle of that lineup. He doesn't steal bases, so the question we have to ask ourselves is, just how much upside does he truly have as a UT-only with those stats? Is it a value at pick 360? Yes, I believe so, but I'm not sure it will meaningfully impact your team in the same way Josh Lowe did in 2023. Surprisingly, Ben Rice met the threshold in four of the five potential criteria here and didn't fall below the MLB average in any of them. Despite his pedestrian .171/.264/.349 slash line and 27% strikeout rate in his 178 MLB plate appearances, he had a 15.6% barrel rate, which was well above the 6.9% MLB average. He also posted a 10.5% SwStr% and 29.5% chase rate, which were both better than the league averages there, and a 77.2% contact rate that is not only better than league average but the third-best of any player on this list. His xBA of .235 was also WELL above his actual .171 batting average, if you're into that sort of thing. Rice also had a great 2024 season in the minors, hitting .273/.400/.567 with 24 home runs and 10 steals in 79 games between Double-A and Triple-A. After just 30 games at Triple-A, the Yankees promoted him to the majors due to the injuries to Anthony Rizzo. While that may have been a step too far too quickly for Rice, we already established that his baseline production wasn't as bad as we might have thought. The 25-year-old has always had great plate discipline and pulled the ball 49% of the time in the minors, so that approach should work for him in Yankee Stadium. Even during his struggles in 2024, he still pulled and lifted the ball at the same rate as he did in the minors, and it's nice to see a young player not change who they are when they get to the big leagues. He may have just needed more time to see his process pay off. So Rice is my choice then, right? Well, not so fast. With Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list with tennis elbow in both elbows, we could see Rice get more time at DH. However, in spring, the Yankees have been using that spot to rotate rest for players. On Thursday, they are running out a lineup that looks a lot like an Opening Day lineup, and it has Trent Grisham in center field with Aaron Judge at DH. Allowing Judge to DH would be a huge help for his health and a boon for the Yankees' defense since Grisham has warts as a hitter but remains a really strong defender. All of that, plus the impending return of Stanton at one point, makes it hard to project plate appearances for Rice and makes it tough to predict him as the Josh Lowe-type of breakout. Who is the breakout hitter choice? So the 'finalists' for this award are Dylan Crews, Evan Carter, and Ben Rice. I will admit that I also really want to make Ben Rice the final answer, and if the Yankees were willing to play him regularly against righties at DH, then he would likely be my choice. So far this spring, he has only started five games, and three of them have been at catcher, where he is not going to make the roster as a backup catcher. If we get any indication in the coming weeks that Rice is going to play regularly, then I will be drafting him on as many teams as I can, so keep an eye on that. That leaves Crews and Evan Carter, and I will say that Crews is one of my most-drafted players this year. I think he's going to have a strong year and a big bounce back in his second season. However, as I mentioned above, his ADP is already 115 in recent drafts, so I can't sit at this keyboard with confidence and tell you that he's going to finish as a top 70 player and outproduce that ADP by a lot. Which is why the answer here is Evan Carter. I believe Carter is going to play every day against right-handed pitching if his body holds up. I believe he can produce a 20/20 season in that role with a good batting average, and so I believe he could easily outproduce his ADP by over 100 picks, which gives him the edge over Crews here in the finals.
