Latest news with #Roubini
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street's 'Doctor Doom' tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
Nouriel Roubini's America Atlas Fund has outperformed amid market volatility and inflation risks. Roubini's fund launched in November 2024 and is up 4%. The fund has heavy allocations to short-term Treasurys and gold. On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. A cynical listener could have interpreted his speech as a pitch to buy his product because stocks and bonds would perform poorly. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets." Read the original article on Business Insider
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street's 'Doctor Doom' tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
Nouriel Roubini's America Atlas Fund has outperformed amid market volatility and inflation risks. Roubini's fund launched in November 2024 and is up 4%. The fund has heavy allocations to short-term Treasurys and gold. On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. A cynical listener could have interpreted his speech as a pitch to buy his product because stocks and bonds would perform poorly. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets." Read the original article on Business Insider Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Wall Street's 'Doctor Doom' tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. A cynical listener could have interpreted his speech as a pitch to buy his product because stocks and bonds would perform poorly. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" Putting his money where his mouth is The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets."
Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Wall Street's Dr. Doom tells BI about his move into money management, where he's off to a market-beating start
On a cold night in December, Nouriel Roubini stood in a dark room at Bloomberg's Manhattan headquarters and prophesied a menacing future for financial markets. Yields on 10-year Treasurys would soar to 8% thanks to persistent inflation, he said at Bloomberg's ETFs in Depth conference. That would send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq plummeting. The scene was perfectly on brand for the famously bearish economist widely known as Dr. Doom. That's why it might have been easy to dismiss his gloomy proclamations. Perhaps even more of a reason to discount Roubini's warnings was that he had just launched an ETF, the America Atlas Fund (USAF), meant to act as an alternative to the fixed-income segment of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. 'Bad things are going to happen to your stocks and bonds, which is why you need to buy my product' is one way a cynical listener could have interpreted his stump speech. But six months later, the evidence is irrefutable: Roubini has nailed his opening act as a fund manager. Since USAF's launch in November, the S&P 500 is flat, suffering a violent 20% drawdown in the interim. Long-end Treasurys have also been volatile, and have sold off in tandem with stocks. Many of the driving forces behind those moves have been those inflation risks that Roubini warned of, including tariffs and restoring, and government spending. Meanwhile, USAF is up 4% and fell only 2% during the market's "Liberation Day" tantrum when stocks tanked and bond yields spiked. The fund has been volatility-resistant thanks to its heavy allocations to short-end Treasurys (about 50% of the portfolio) and gold (19%). The remaining holdings are a mix of commodities, REITs, and TIPS, and alternative investments. In other words, Roubini's timing couldn't have been better, and his warnings — at least directionally speaking — have been spot on. It's been a dream start for the New York University professor, who often gets flak for his regular pessimism. "Sometimes people say, 'You talk about stuff, but talk is cheap,'" Roubini told BI. "'Put your money where your mouth is. Have some skin in the game.'" Putting his money where his mouth is The 67-year-old Roubini, who is most known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, could have simply kept on with his work at NYU and continued pontificating about where the economy was headed. But the economist wanted to take on a fresh challenge. "In different stages in life, you do different things," he said. In the final chapter of Roubini's 2022 book, "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them," he lays out how investors might protect themselves from downside risks. In recent years, he decided it was time to put those ideas to the test. It has always been a logical next step for him to wade into the world of asset management, he said. Plus, it's a chance to respond to his many detractors who have questioned the weight behind his predictions since he didn't have any money under his purview. "After a career in academia, of policy, of providing economic advice, more and more people say, 'If you are that smart, why don't you try to also manage money rather than just talking about it," he continued. "So it was a natural thing that would have eventually happened." It remains to be seen if Roubini can keep his string of success going in the years ahead. The outlook informing his positioning is that persistent inflation in the 5-6% range will continue to put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields. That's why he's sitting heavily in short-term Treasurys at the moment, collecting a similar yield to longer-term assets while not having to endure the same volatility. If 10-year rates were to get up toward 8%, that would be the right time to buy in, he said. His views on inflation are well above the consensus in markets and among Wall Street banks, though it's still unclear what impact tariffs and potential tax cuts will have on consumer prices. If inflation fears dissipate, Roubini's exceptionally well-timed introduction to the asset management space may very well prove to be beginner's luck. Either way, investors now have a way to grade Roubini's forecasts in real time. "One thing is to talk about money, and another is managing it," Roubini said. "You see right away the feedback between your ideas and what happens in the real markets."
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'The US economy will thrive': Why the market's 'Dr. Doom' is bullish on American exceptionalism despite Trump
Nouriel Roubini expects the US economy and markets to survive tariffs. America's tech leadership will deliver an era of high-growth through this decade, he said. The market has become a barrier against Trump's policies, Roubini said. Investors are on edge as President Donald Trump's "America First" policies seem only to diminish the appeal of US assets, but to famed economist Nouriel Roubini, the fears are overblown. That's notable for a commentator the market has referred to over the years as "Doctor Doom" for his downbeat prognostications. But Roubini sees US markets constraining Trump's most aggressive policies, and ensuring a continuation of American exceptionalism. "America's exceptional growth will survive Trump," the economist wrote in Project Syndicate, stating that the country holds a key advantage that shouldn't be discounted: technological leadership. Trump's protectionist pivot triggered foreign investors to rethink dollar and Treasury holdings, and the subsequent sell-off has sparked worries that US exceptionalism is over. Meanwhile, tariff escalations have amplified recession nerves, further cemented by Wednesday's depressing GDP and labor data. But Roubini has a brighter outlook. First, he pointed out that the market has acted as a stopgap against Trump's most extreme policy impulses, forcing him to implement a 90-day tariff pause and back off rhetoric that threatened Federal Reserve independence. Market discipline, a responsible Fed, and rising pushback amid some congressional Republicans are among the key guardrails that could help mitigate a stagflationary scenario for the US, but it's the country's tech industries that will deliver future growth. "The US economy's potential growth will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%," Roubini wrote. "The reason is obvious: America is the world leader in ten of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading in only electric vehicles and other green tech." Separately, he noted that these industries include artificial intelligence, robotics, bio-medical research, quantum computing, and space exploration. In other words, technological advantages will keep the US relevant for international global investors, and should continue to draw in money regardless of what the next four years of trade policy bring. "Even tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have not fundamentally changed the guidance from most big tech firms, AI hyper-scalers, and others. Many are even doubling down on AI investments," Roubini added. To be sure, America's AI leadership has fallen under increased scrutiny as Chinese firms make significant progress on their own models. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC on Wednesday that "China is not behind" when it comes to AI developments, but emphasized that this is a long-term race. Looking over the next few years, Roubini expects technological leadership to boost US growth and redistribute wealth. "After an initial period of pain, the US economy will thrive," he wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
