Latest news with #RoyMorgan
Kiwiblog
4 days ago
- Politics
- Kiwiblog
How did the Australian pollsters go?
Now we have a final result for the Australian election, we can look at how the Australian pollsters did. This shows the primary and then TPP vote for each pollsters's final pre-election poll. The final TPP result of 55.2% to 44.8% was greater than all the polls. Four had it 53 to 47, so were out by 2.2% only. Those most out on the TPP were Ipsos followed by Freshwater and Demos. In terms of the primary vote, YouGov were closest to the Coalition at 31.4% to 31.8%. The most out went to Freshwater who had them 5.2% too high, and then Resolve at 3.2%. For the ALP, Redbridge were only 0.6% out and Ipsos had them a massive 6.6% too low. Four pollsters got the Greens almost spot on. The furthest out was YouGov at 2.4%. And One Nation had Roy Morgan get them almost spot on, while Essential had them 3.6% too low. If we look at how many results were within the margin of error for their sample size we have: Roy Morgan 6/6 Newspoll, Redbridge 5/6 Spectre, Resolve 3/6 Ipsos, Freshwater, Demos, Essential 2/6 YouGov 1/6 And the average error for each pollster was: Redbridge 1.5% Roy Morgan 1.7% Newspoll 1.9% Demos 2.3% resolve 2.3% YouGov 2.4% Spectre 2.6% Essential 2.6% Freshwater 2.7% Ipsos 3.0% As always you should never judge a pollster off just one poll. And all pollsters did get it right that Labor would win – but they all underestimated the degree.
RNZ News
7 days ago
- Business
- RNZ News
High food prices, 'tariff noise' cast shadow over consumer confidence
Photo: RNZ Consumer sentiment has soured amid tariff-induced economic uncertainty and rising food prices. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 5 points fell in May to 92.9 - a reading below 100 means overall sentiment remains pessimistic. It comes after business confidence fell for the third month in a row . The fall in consumer sentiment erased gains from April . ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said it was the first consumer survey where most people answered after the start of "tariff noise". "That could be a factor," she said. "Also, we're experiencing quite high food price inflation at the moment and that tends to go down very badly with consumers." Perceptions about the outlook for the economy over the next 12 months fell 4 points to a net negative 20 percent - indicating most people thought the economy would see bad times financially. A net 10 percent of people felt it was a bad time to buy a major household item, a key indicator for the retail sector. "While that did lift 1 point, it's still a long way from suggesting happy days for the retail sector," Zollner said. Other questions in the survey showed a net 12 percent expected to be better off in a year's time, down 11 points. Household inflation expectations were largely steady, only easing 0.1 percentage points to 4.6 percent. "That's a lot higher than a couple of months ago, with the jump possibly caused by global tariff talk, though household inflation expectations can also be sensitive to food prices," Zollner said. "Household inflation expectations don't have a tight correlation with actual inflation outcomes," Zollner said. "But the perception that inflation is going to be so high is likely to contribute to the sense of a cost of living crisis, potentially dampening spending, if anything." ANZ continued to expect the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates three more times this year, lowering the Official Cash Rate to 2.5 percent. "Our best judgement is that the RBNZ will end up just shoring up the recovery because it's nothing flash at the moment," Zollner said. Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero , a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.
Reuters
7 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
New Zealand consumer confidence falls in May
May 30 (Reuters) - Consumer confidence in New Zealand fell in May, with stubbornly high inflation expectations holding back purchasers, ANZ-Roy Morgan data showed on Friday. "Household inflation expectations don't have a tight correlation with actual inflation outcomes," said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner. "But the perception that inflation is going to be so high is likely to contribute to the sense of a cost-of-living crisis, potentially dampening spending, if anything." The consumer confidence index fell to 92.9 in May from 98.3 in April. A reading above 100 shows optimism, while below that indicates pessimism. Consumer inflation expectations eased by 0.1%, but remained elevated at 4.6%.
News.com.au
22-05-2025
- Business
- News.com.au
Gen Z Aussies fuelling rise in Chinese fashion company Shein: Report
Chinese fashion phenomenon Shein continues to rise in popularity across Australian online marketplaces and Gen Z shoppers are fuelling the boom. Some 26 per cent of online shoppers bought products from the brand in the past 12 months, a new report from ecommerce service provider Pattern shows, and the figure is expected to lift to 28 per cent in 2025. 'The platform attracts two million Australian shoppers aged 14 and over, with 76 per cent being repeat customers and 42 per cent making purchases four or more times a year,' the report, which drills into consumer behaviour across major online marketplaces, states. 'The majority of Shein's customers are female (78 per cent) and under 35, aligning with its core focus on women's clothing.' The report suggests the fast-fashion company's aggressive pricing strategy to attract cost-conscious shoppers was paying off. 'Despite concerns over trust, Shein continues to attract shoppers seeking low prices and a wide assortment with 70 per cent of Australians regularly using Chinese marketplaces due to value,' the report notes. 'With plans to file for a London initial public offering at a $$100bn valuation, Shein's aggressive growth and diversification strategies position it as a significant player in the Australian retail landscape for the future.' Roy Morgan estimates Shein attracted $1.1bn in annual sales for the year ending June 2024. The company is also moving to lift its 'brand engagement' by increasing physical activations such as showroom experiences. But while Shein is flying, Chinese online retail platform Temu could be slipping, the report said. Some 46 per cent of online shoppers bought products from Temu in the past 12 months, but the figure is expect to fall to 43 per cent in 2025. 'Shopper intentions for 2025 indicate that the rapid growth of Chinese marketplaces in Australia may be on the decline,' the report states. 'Temu is expected to see a reduction in shoppers, with 43 per cent of people planning to shop on the platform compared to 46 per cent in 2024. 'This trend could be attributed to a wave of shoppers who trialled the Chinese marketplaces in 2024 but experienced unsatisfactory shopping experiences.' US giant Amazon continues to dominate online marketplaces in Australia, though it is moving to fend off its Chinese challengers. Some 58 per cent of shoppers purchased products from the platform in the past 12 months and that number is expected to hit 63 per cent in 2025. 'To counter emerging competitors like Temu and Shein, Amazon has launched 'Haul', a low-cost storefront with price caps, aiming to match the appeal of discount platforms,' the report states. 'Despite perceptions of higher prices compared to Chinese marketplaces, Amazon maintains a strong reputation for fast delivery and quality, with 63 per cent of shoppers trusting the platform.' The value of Australia's ecommerce market is expected to reach $59bn in 2025 and then grow to $93bn by 2029. The data for the report comes from a poll of 1000 Australians, aged 14 and above.
The Guardian
13-05-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
Woolworths is cutting prices from today. Expect more supermarket competition – but not an all-out price war
Woolworths is cutting prices on hundreds of products from Wednesday, raising hopes the supermarket sector is entering a new period of intensifying competition, colloquially known as a price war. But after a bruising period for the supermarket sector, marked by allegations of price-gouging during a cost-of-living crisis, shoppers may be sceptical of seeing any relief. Is the era of fast-rising grocery prices and supercharged supermarket profits really coming to an end? Australia's major supermarkets, Coles and Woolworths, suffered dramatic hits to their reputation over the past 18 months, as public anger over grocery prices and concerns over the treatment of agricultural suppliers sparked government and regulatory inquiries. Research house Roy Morgan noted earlier this year that the supermarket giants had become some of the most distrusted brands in Australia amid 'allegations of price hikes and profit-driven strategies'. Woolworths, the country's biggest chain, fared worse than Coles – in public perception and then sales – due to a particularly combative appearance before a parliamentary inquiry and a high-profile industrial strike at some of its warehouses that left shelves empty in the lead-up to Christmas. While the major supermarkets offer mirror-like products and pricing, there was also a perception that Coles, utilising its 'down down' campaign, was cheaper than Woolworths – a great advantage in a cost-of-living crisis. 'Trading momentum in terms of sales is very important, and that momentum is very hard to get,' says Hailey Kim, an investment analyst at Wilson Asset Management. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email 'Once you have it, it lasts many quarters. If you look at the last few quarters, Coles has been a leader in terms of that trading momentum.' In response, the Woolworths chief executive, Amanda Bardwell, announced a $400m cost-cutting program in February, with some of those savings earmarked to pay for price cuts of about 400 products. 'The decision to cut prices on this many items is a bit of a signal that they commit to regain some customers,' Kim says. After a year-long review, the competition regulator found in March that the major chains are among the most profitable supermarket businesses in the world, and that they increased prices during a cost-of-living crisis to boost profits. The supermarket sector is one of the most concentrated among comparable economies, described by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission as an 'oligopoly'. The University of Sydney supermarket researcher Lisa Asher says there is not enough competitive pressure in Australia to have a genuine price war. 'It would be lovely if there was one but the market conditions do not mean that we will see one,' Asher says. 'We do not have enough competition in the market to create a price war.' Many of the announced savings are modest. For example, Woolworths is dropping its own brand tomato sauce from $2.10 to $2, while a 12 pack of Maggi Noodles is being reduced from $10 to $9. One investment manager tells Guardian Australia they expect Woolworths will accept a stable profit margin, rather than an expanding one, over the near term in order to gain some sales momentum. But the manager believes the major chains will refrain from being too aggressive on pricing. 'There won't be flat-out competition between the majors because that would be negative for both of them,' the manager says. Bardwell said on Monday that families spending $150 on their weekly shop would save about $15 a week when buying the reduced items, marking 'the start of a real, tangible change'. 'This isn't just a short-term promotion; it's about lower shelf prices on the products we know customers regularly shop for, and providing genuine, lasting and dependable value they can count on,' Bardwell said. Woolworths has pledged to keep the products at their new prices 'at least until 2026'. Coles will need to decide whether it follows with its own reductions. While a price war is unlikely, the cuts are still a welcome development directly linked to the intense public scrutiny of the sector, which is set to continue. The re-elected Labor government has promised to boost competition and consumer protections, including improving transparency about grocery prices, price trends, promotions and loyalty programs. Elsewhere, the supermarkets are defending allegations by the regulator they misled shoppers by offering 'illusory' discounts on hundreds of common supermarket products, with those proceedings still in their early stages. There are still regular examples of shrinking products appearing at supermarkets – an issue that fuels distrust among shoppers. (For example, Woolworths is selling a shrunken Brut deodorant stick for double the unit price of the product it replaced.) And there are concerns that when public scrutiny subsides, the major supermarkets will use their market power to expand their profit margins at the expense of shoppers and suppliers, as they did during the inflationary period. Asher says more frequent sector scrutiny is needed, given long lags between inquiries previously. 'We shouldn't be waiting until food price [increases] get out of control before looking at it,' she says. 'The approach should be more considered and structured, as opposed to reactive.'
