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Euronews
17-04-2025
- Climate
- Euronews
On thin ice: Why this legendary Dutch skating race may never happen again
ADVERTISEMENT From the Alaskan Iditarod to the Winter Olympics, climate change has put many winter sporting traditions at risk. While some have managed to adapt to rising temperatures and unpredictable snowfall, a time-honoured Dutch tradition may be gliding toward extinction. The Elfstedentocht – or 'Eleven Cities Tour' – is a legendary 200-kilometre ice-skating race and leisure tour that winds through naturally frozen canals in the northern Friesland region of the Netherlands. But 2025 will mark 28 years since the last event was held. According to new climate research, the odds of it happening again are shrinking fast. A once-every-four-years tradition may now only happen once a generation The Elfstedentocht requires perfect conditions to take place. It must be cold enough, for long enough, for the ice to become 15 centimetres thick along the entire course so that it can accommodate the pressure of the 15,000 amateur skaters who join the event. For that thick, stable ice to form, there must be at least 15 consecutive days of sub-4.2 °C weather – combined with dry conditions. In the 20th century, an Elfstedentocht could be expected every four to five years. According to a new study published in Climate Change, the Elfstedentocht might now take place just once every 32 years. Related Pumped up pollen: How climate change could be making your seasonal allergies worse Deadly floods, storms and heatwaves: Europe suffered the 'serious impacts' of climate change in 2024 Hans Visser and Arthur Petersen, two researchers who worked with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) on this study, warn that a warming planet wreaking havoc on weather patterns has made the ideal conditions increasingly elusive. A cultural icon on thin ice Since its official founding in 1909, the Elfstedentocht has only been held 15 times, with the most recent in 1997. In the decades since, there have been several 'close calls,' including a near-run in 2012, but the canals were never quite frozen enough. 'We still have the occasional outlier. Like in 2012, when it almost came to an Elfstedentocht,' Hylke de Vries of the KNMI told de Volkskrant. 'But then the winter in the weeks before hadn't been very cold, and the water was still relatively warm. Then it takes a few extra days for everything to freeze over. Snowfall can also lead to ice, but the ice doesn't get thicker quickly.' Other models using different forecasting techniques are slightly more optimistic about the Elfstedentocht. The KNMI estimates that optimal conditions might occur once every 14 years. Related Electric cars, leaky homes, and food: How does France plan to get emissions cuts back on track? Lego says new factory in Vietnam will make toys without without adding emissions to the atmosphere But researchers agree on one thing: without significant cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the Elfstedentocht may become a relic of the past. If emissions are drastically reduced, the chance of an Elfstedentocht will remain approximately the same as now in the decades to come. If emissions increase, there may not be another Elfstedentocht after the end of this century, according to the study. 'The chances of [proper conditions] decrease with global warming, no matter how you calculate that chance,' said de Vries. Winter sports everywhere are under threat The Netherlands is far from alone with the wintry disruptions it faces. Across Europe and beyond, winter sports have become increasingly vulnerable to climate change. ADVERTISEMENT A 2024 report by the World Meteorological Organization found that only 10 countries will have a climate-reliable outlook for snow sport events by 2040. Activists have also drawn attention to how ski resorts and sporting events are contributing to the problem, not just suffering from it. Last year, a group calculated that Audi's sponsorship of the Ski World Cup would contribute 103,000-144,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions to highlight environmental contradictions. Meanwhile, alpine regions are investing heavily in artificial snow – a money-, energy- and water-intensive process – and other infrastructure improvements to maintain ski seasons. ADVERTISEMENT But for events like the Elfstedentocht, there's no artificial fix. It's natural ice or nothing.
The Independent
10-02-2025
- Science
- The Independent
Year above 1.5C suggests world is reaching long term warming threshold
A year with temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels mean it is likely the world is reaching the key long-term warming threshold, studies suggest. Under the global Paris climate treaty secured in 2015, countries agreed to limit global warming to 'well below' 2C and to pursue efforts to curb temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst impacts of extreme storms, floods, heatwaves, rising seas and the collapse of natural systems. But global datasets of temperatures have found a record hot 2024 saw temperatures exceed 1.5C over the year for the first time. Scientists caution that one year above 1.5C over pre-industrial levels does not mean the long-term threshold, measured over multiple decades, has been breached. But two studies published in the journal Nature Climate Change have found it is likely the year at 1.5C means the world is in the 20-year period where the long term threshold will be exceeded – or even that we have already crossed it. Scientists said the findings showed how urgently the world needed to act to cut the greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, industrial processes and cutting down forests that are driving climate change. In his study, Alex Cannon, from the Climate Research Division of Environment and Climate Change Canada, said that a few months or couple of years warmer than 1.5C does not 'automatically mean the goal has been exceeded'. But analysis of climate model projections show that 12 consecutive months above 1.5C indicates the Paris Agreement threshold is likely to have already been crossed, he said. While an El Nino weather pattern in the tropical Pacific, which pushes up global temperatures, contributed to 2024's record heat, the analysis shows that 1.5C for 12 consecutive months – regardless of El Nino conditions – usually occurs after the long-term threshold has been reached in simulations, he said. The rate we have reached these levels is terrifying and shows, yet again, how urgently we need to act Vikki Thompson, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute He added that whether the findings signalled an earlier than expected crossing of the threshold in the real world depended on whether unaccounted-for factors, which are not considered in archived climate model simulations, played a large role in recent warming. In a second paper, scientists from Germany looked at real-world observations of already-reached warming levels and climate models, and showed that the first single year exceeding each threshold have consistently fallen with the first 20 year period which averaged the same level of warming. They found that 'unless ambitious emissions cuts are implemented', the world's first year at 1.5C warming is 'virtually certain' to fall within the 20-year period that reaches the 1.5C warming level. They said it was very unlikely for the temperature of a single year to largely exceed the long term average, and 2024's record heat signals that 'most probably' Earth has already entered a 20-year period at 1.5C warming, they said. Entering into the 20-year period in which temperatures averaged 1.5C did not mean that the world was already at long term warming of that level as that would fall in the mid point of the era, 10 years later, they added. And they said that by rapidly slowing down the warming rate, stringent near-term action to curb climate change has the potential to substantially reduce risks of exceeding 1.5C of warming soon after the first year of heat at that level has occurred. It does highlight that the headroom to stay below 1.5C is now wafer thin Professor Stephen Belcher, Met Office And rapid, urgent emissions action is needed to limit peak warming, which is also required to hold climate change below 2C if the 1.5 target is missed. 'A year above 1.5C is not the time for despair, but a call to action,' they said. Responding to the findings, Dr Alan Kennedy-Asser, senior research associate at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, described them as 'sadly unsurprising' which suggested 'we may be already living in the 1.5C world the Paris Agreement referred to'. 'However, even though the planet may be in a period that is at or exceeds 1.5C, there is great value in taking rapid action to slow further warming, as the rate of change matters and every tenth of a degree matters,' he said. Dr Vikki Thompson, scientist at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said: 'These studies use data from both observational sources and multiple climate models to show we should now expect to exceed the Paris Agreement within the next 20 years, much sooner than climate projections had suggested. 'The rate we have reached these levels is terrifying and shows, yet again, how urgently we need to act. 'Without adaptation and mitigation we will continue to feel the impacts of the accelerating warming with more and more extreme weather events,' she said. Professor Stephen Belcher, Met Office chief scientist, said a single year exceeding 1.5C 'does not break the guardrail of the Paris Agreement'. 'However, it does highlight that the headroom to stay below 1.5C is now wafer thin,' he said, warning that a recent paper by Met Office scientists calculated current global warming at 1.3C and its forecast for carbon dioxide for the coming year is now inconsistent with pathways keeping to 1.5C. 'This suggests that only rapid and strong measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions will keep us from passing the first line of defence within the Paris Agreement,' he said.
