5 days ago
Experts sound drought warning for next year
As Typhoon Wipha weakens, its immediate impacts, such as flooding in parts of the North, are gradually receding. However, experts are sounding the alarm over more serious challenges ahead, including flash floods, water shortages, and a potential drought crisis in 2026.
The Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) is warning that rainfall across Thailand is expected to decline by 4-9% during August and September.
This is part of broader shifts tied to climate change, including the transition from La Niña to either neutral (La Nada) or El Niño conditions, factors that will affect Thailand's water availability well into next year.
At a public forum titled "Water and Climate Alert: Rain Monitor for 2025 Storm Forecast", held on Wednesday, HII analysts warned extreme weather events are likely to increase in intensity and unpredictability.
Sudden droughts, driven by fluctuating rainfall, are expected to emerge in the latter half of this year, particularly affecting southern and inland provinces.
HII director Royboon Rassamethes said northern provinces such as Chiang Rai, Nan, and Phayao already experienced heavy rainfall this month, exceeding 150 mm per week in some areas.
Despite current flooding, the concern is now centring on how rapidly water levels might decline, leaving reservoirs understocked and agricultural areas vulnerable to drought.
Looking ahead, Thailand is projected to face a water shortage of over 4,450 million cubic metres by 2026. National water reserves fall short of the 12,000 million cubic metres needed to sustain critical demand.
In response, authorities are being urged to speed up work on irrigation systems and large-scale water diversion plans, redirecting floodwaters into storage pools and high-demand agricultural zones.
Mr Royboon said "the next four weeks are crucial", as accumulated rainfall could trigger more flash floods while simultaneously masking the onset of longer-term water scarcity.
He urged the public to monitor forecasts, updated four times daily, and to use the ThaiWater application for 48-hour alerts at the sub-district level.
From November to December, heavier-than-normal rainfall is expected across the western coast of southern Thailand, while eastern provinces will see typical monsoonal patterns. However, overall, 2025 rainfall is projected to be significantly lower than in 2024, underscoring the urgency of strategic water management.
The HII is working closely with public and private partners to enhance forecasting accuracy. "By integrating drone technology and advanced monitoring tools, we are upgrading our real-time response capability. "These innovations will improve early warnings and support long-term planning for Thailand's water security," Mr Royboon said.
Meanwhile, the aftermath of Typhoon Wipha continues to affect residents in northern Thailand, particularly in Nan province. Reporters say floodwaters have inundated parts of the city for three consecutive days, and although levels have begun to recede slightly, many areas remain submerged, some as deep as two metres.
Roads leading into Nan City, such as the route from Ban Luang district to the Phan Ton intersection in the municipal area, remain underwater. While some vehicles are now partially visible, flood levels in the economic zone remain over one metre deep. Rescue teams are using boats to transport residents in and out of their homes, helping them access essential supplies, as aid cannot reach some locations.
