Latest news with #Rs303
Express Tribune
11-07-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Banks' profits to drop 14% QoQ
Listen to article Pakistan's banking sector is expected to report a subdued financial performance for the second quarter of 2025 (2QCY25), with profitability likely to decline by around 1% year-on-year (YoY) and 14% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) for major banks following a drop in yields and a 100-basis-point (bps) cut in policy rate by the State Bank in May. "We estimate profitability of ISL coverage banks – HBL, UBL, MCB Bank, Meezan Bank and Bank Alfalah – to decline by 1% YoY and 14% QoQ," noted Insight Securities. "The decline is primarily attributable to the falling yield, resulting in net interest margins (NIMs) compression along with moderation in capital gains." Additionally, non-markup income is projected to decline due to normalisation of capital gains, which were elevated in the previous quarters. Despite margin pressures, some support to earnings is expected from volumetric growth and a stronger focus on mobilising zero-cost deposits. Banks are also expected to maintain healthy dividend payouts, aided by decent profitability and strong capital buffers. According to estimates, HBL, UBL, MCB Bank, Meezan Bank and Bank Alfalah are projected to post earnings per share (EPS) of Rs9.5, Rs11.3, Rs9.9, Rs11.4 and Rs4.9, respectively. Dividend per share (DPS) forecasts for the same banks stand at Rs4.5, Rs7, Rs9, Rs7 and Rs2.5, with UBL likely to stand out due to robust earnings and above-average deposit growth. Sector-wide trends show banking deposits reaching Rs35 trillion, marking a significant increase of 12.5% YoY and 10.7% QoQ. Notably, a sharp 7% week-on-week growth was observed in the latest data. However, advances declined 4.1% QoQ to Rs12.9 trillion, pulling down the sector's advances-to-deposit ratio (ADR) by roughly 570 bps. On the other hand, investments grew 12.8% QoQ to Rs36.5 trillion, reflecting continued preference for government securities, while borrowings remained stable at around Rs14.8 trillion. Provisioning expenses are expected to rise sequentially, reversing the trend from the previous quarter, when banks booked reversals after trimming advances to meet end-of-year ADR thresholds. Despite the uptick in provisioning, the sector's overall financial health remains sound and banks are expected to continue rewarding shareholders with steady dividends. However, Topline Securities expects banks under its coverage – Bank Alfalah, Bank AL Habib, HBL, MCB Bank, Meezan Bank and UBL – to post 7% YoY earnings growth in 2Q2025, led by higher net interest income (NII) and non-interest income. Despite a drop in average policy rate from 21.5% to 11.3%, NII is projected to rise 12% YoY to Rs303 billion, supported by strong deposit growth and higher returns on older investments. Non-interest income is expected to grow 14% YoY to Rs84 billion, driven by increased fee income and gains on securities. Expenses are forecast to rise 8% YoY to Rs161 billion, in line with inflation and branch expansion. Provisions are likely to jump up to Rs9.1 billion from Rs5.9 billion last year. Among individual banks, UBL is projected to lead with 148% YoY earnings growth, followed by HBL with 4% growth. However, sector earnings are expected to decline 5% QoQ due to lower NII and higher provisions, noted Topline. For 1H2025, cumulative earnings are estimated at Rs210 billion, up 10% YoY. Dividend payouts are expected to remain strong, with UBL's DPS likely rising to Rs8 from Rs5.5 in the previous quarter. Topline maintains a market-weight stance on the sector, with HBL and Bank Alfalah being preferred picks. Meanwhile, after hitting decade-low levels, Pakistan's banking sector has witnessed a strong and consistent rebound in its price-to-book (P/B) ratio since late 2023, reflecting improved investor sentiment and sector performance, according to Optimus Capital Management. As of June 2025, the sector's P/B ratio climbed to 1.24 times, crossing its historical average and median of 1.0 times for the first time in years. The recovery signals growing investor confidence, underpinned by strong profitability metrics, stabilising macroeconomic conditions and a more favourable interest rate environment. The rebound marks a sharp reversal from the sustained downward trend seen over the past decade, which was driven by inflationary pressures, regulatory tightening and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Express Tribune
08-07-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Gold rises despite global decline
Listen to article Gold prices in Pakistan rose on Tuesday, defying the trend in the international market where bullion slipped due to renewed optimism about a possible trade agreement between the United States and its trading partners. A stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields further weighed on global gold prices. In the local market, the price of gold per tola increased Rs1,500 to reach Rs354,500, according to data released by the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA). Meanwhile, the price of 10 grams of gold rose Rs1,286, closing at Rs303,926. This upward movement in domestic gold prices comes a day after the local market saw a drop of Rs2,500 on Monday, when gold settled at Rs353,000 per tola. Commenting on the international outlook, Interactive Commodities Director Adnan Agar noted that gold was trading around $3,294 per ounce, having touched the low of $3,280-85 and the high of $3,340 during the session. "As I mentioned earlier, the market appears to be gradually declining. There is strong support at $3,270 and $3,250. If prices drop to these levels, we could see a rebound. However, a break below this range could push the market down towards $3,200," he said. International spot gold eased 0.4% to $3,322.93 per ounce, as of 1325 GMT. US gold futures fell 0.3% to $3,332.30, according to Reuters. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit a more than two-week high, making non-yielding gold less attractive, while the US dollar edged 0.2% higher. Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee continued its downward trend against the US dollar, slipping 0.05% in the inter-bank market on Tuesday. By the end of trading, the rupee stood at 284.36, marking a drop of 14 paisa from Monday's close at 284.22. Moreover, Money Link Exchange Company closed its operations and surrendered its licence to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which has officially revoked the company's authorisation to carry out any kind of foreign exchange business. The move highlights concerns among foreign exchange companies over what industry stakeholders describe as excessive regulations and a shrinking scope of operations. Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) General Secretary Zafar Paracha expressed disappointment over the closure, stating that overregulation and limited business avenues have pushed even well-established companies out of the market. "It is unfortunate that a big group like Money Link is exiting. The environment is no longer viable for us," he said. Another exchange company official, speaking anonymously, said that the formal exchange business was losing ground to the grey market as a result of overly strict regulations and limited flexibility. "We have only two avenues left – selling currency to retail customers and handling remittances. Meanwhile, banks have been given preferential treatment to operate in this space, while exchange companies face harsh compliance demands," he added. Key regulatory conditions, such as mandatory biometric verification for transactions as low as $100, the requirement of travel documents for outward remittances of over $950 and the restriction that transfers above $1,950 can only be made through bank accounts, have been cited as major obstacles. Stakeholders argue that this level of scrutiny hampers genuine customer transactions and deters individuals from using formal channels. "We operate by buying and selling dollars between individuals, but excessive interference has made the business unsustainable. This could lead to monopolies and the collapse of healthy competition," warned a senior industry member.
Express Tribune
08-07-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Gold prices climb in local market after global surge
Listen to article Gold prices in the domestic market continued their upward trend on Tuesday, following a $15 increase in the international bullion market. The global price of gold rose to $3,325 per ounce, which triggered a corresponding rise in local rates. According to market data, the price of 24-karat gold increased by Rs1,500 per tola, reaching Rs354,500. Similarly, the price of 10-gram gold rose by Rs1,286 to settle at Rs303,926 in the local bullion markets. The yellow metal had witnessed a decline a day earlier, falling by Rs2,500 per tola to settle at Rs353,000 on Monday. On the other hand, silver prices remained unchanged. The rate of silver stood steady at Rs3,841 per tola and Rs3,293 per 10 grams.
Express Tribune
25-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Gold prices tumble on Israel-Iran ceasefire
Listen to article Gold prices in Pakistan registered a sharp decline on Tuesday, mirroring the downtrend in the international market where bullion slipped nearly 2% to hit a more than two-week low as geopolitical tensions cooled. The global drop came as investor demand for safe-haven assets eased following Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. In the domestic market, the price of 24-karat gold fell by Rs3,800 per tola to settle at Rs354,365, according to rates issued by the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA). Similarly, the price of 10-gram gold dropped by Rs3,258 to reach Rs303,810. On the previous day, gold had posted a modest decline of Rs300 per tola, closing at Rs358,165. "There had been talk of a correction for several days and with tensions easing, the metal is now gradually retreating," said Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, noting that gold was trading lower after geopolitical tensions subsided. Gold touched a high of $3,357 an ounce and a low of $3,303 on Tuesday and is still hovering near its lower range. The key support zone lies between $3,300 and $3,290. "A breach below this level could push the market down towards $3,200," he said. Agar indicated that if the geopolitical situation remains stable, gold prices may continue their downward correction, potentially sliding to $3,000 or even $2,800. Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee registered a slight gain against the US dollar in the inter-bank market on Tuesday, appreciating by 0.04%. By the close of trading, the local currency settled at 283.77 against the greenback, marking an improvement of 10 paisa from the previous session's close at 283.87. In the global market, the US dollar weakened while the Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran. The development boosted investor sentiment and triggered a risk rally across international markets. Moreover, Pakistan's broad money (M2) grew by 0.9% on a week-on-week (WoW) basis to Rs38.4 trillion as of June 13, 2025, according to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The increase was mainly driven by a 1% WoW rise in total deposits with banks, which climbed to Rs27.5 trillion. Meanwhile, currency in circulation (CIC) edged higher by 0.7% WoW, standing at Rs10.9 trillion. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the broad money expanded by 3.2% while year-on-year (YoY) growth stood at 11.6%. So far in 2025, M2 has posted an increase of 7.9%. Currency in circulation surged 5.3% MoM and 17.4% YoY, reflecting higher cash demand after Eid holidays. Total deposits grew 2.3% MoM and 9.6% YoY during the period. Other deposits with the SBP, however, declined 3.2% WoW and 13% MoM, marking a sharp 30.6% fall on a yearly basis.
Business Recorder
24-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Gold price per tola falls Rs3,800 in Pakistan
Gold prices in Pakistan decreased significantly on Tuesday in line with their fall in the international market. In the local market, gold price per tola reached Rs354,365 after a loss of Rs3,800 during the day. As per the rates shared by the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA), 10-gram gold was sold at Rs303,810 after it declined Rs3,258. On Monday, gold price per tola reached Rs358,165 after a loss of Rs300 during the day. The international rate of gold also decreased today. The rate was at $3,327 per ounce (with a premium of $20), a fall of $39, as per APGJSA. Meanwhile, silver price per tola decreased by Rs9 to reach Rs3,790.
