4 days ago
Moldova's election will test its resistance to Russia
On August 1st a journalist who writes for an American celebrity-gossip site woke up to a nasty shock. The site had been cloned, and she appeared as the author of a fake story claiming that Maia Sandu, the president of Moldova—a country that most of the journalist's readers would have trouble locating—had spent $400,000 on 'illegally obtained sperm' from gay stars, including Elton John. Moldova will hold a parliamentary election on September 28th, and like many foes of Russia, Ms Sandu and her party are being targeted by disinformation campaigns.
It was a textbook 'matryoshka', or Russian-doll, operation. Few see the cloned site itself, but the article is disseminated by networked accounts on social media, where its seeming origin in a foreign news source lends it credibility. Such stories are everywhere, says Vadim Pistrinciuc, a Moldovan political analyst: 'On Telegram, TikTok, Facebook, they have thousands of accounts.' Bot networks are supplemented by payments to local influencers. Saturated by such garbage, people sometimes end up believing it. More often, they become unsure whether any news is real.
Speaking with The Economist, Ms Sandu lists such disinformation as one of ten types of electoral interference orchestrated by Russia. Another is vote-buying, which was rife during a presidential election and a referendum on joining the European Union last year. Also last year, a hundred or so Moldovans got paramilitary training from Russian instructors in Serbia and Bosnia. Russia's aim, Ms Sandu says, is to 'take control' of the part-Romanian-speaking, part-Russian-speaking country.
In 2024 Moldova's government, led by Ms Sandu's Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), opened accession negotiations with the EU. Should PAS lose the election, that process could be suspended. Last October's referendum passed with only 50.3% support, and the following month Ms Sandu required overwhelming support from Moldovan voters abroad to be re-elected to a second term. According to the country's intelligence services, vote-buying schemes in both elections were organised from Russia by Ilan Shor, a fugitive oligarch who was convicted for his role in the theft of $1bn from Moldova's banks in 2014.
Polls (which are unreliable in Moldova) show PAS leading with over 35% of the vote, but it will probably lose its absolute majority in parliament. A pro-Russian government could come to power, or PAS may be forced into coalition with nominally pro-European parties whose leaders have had links with Russia in the past. These include Ion Ceban, mayor of Chisinau, the capital, who accuses Ms Sandu of calling everyone outside her party an agent of Russia's hybrid war. 'You could not do European integration if other parties in the coalition do not really support it,' says Ms Sandu.
About a third of the electorate is strongly pro-European, says Mihai Mogildea, another political analyst. A third is pro-Russian, and the rest are moderately pro-European or somewhere in-between. But economics plays a role. If siding with Europe and resisting Russia are seen to entail higher gas and electricity prices, he says, many 'moderate pro-Europeans think 'no, no, no, I don't want this.''
In Copaceni, 100km north-west of Chisinau, men slam dominoes loudly in the village pub. Their views are a bewildering mix of contradictions. Nicolae, a pensioner, wants Moldova to join the EU, but thinks the union will collapse within three years—a familiar Russian propaganda line. 'All deputies are bandits,' says Simion, another pensioner. Then he adds: 'I want to be with both Europe and Russia,' another self-contradictory notion propagated by pro-Russian politicians.
Maria, a retired teacher, is a staunch supporter of PAS. She says that during the presidential election a group of village women boasted openly about how much money they were paid to bribe others to vote for Mr Shor's party. After the election one of them was arrested, fined 'and got really scared'. Now the group are as 'meek as mice', she chortles.
Another fugitive oligarch, Vlad Plahotniuc, was arrested in Athens on July 22nd. Before fleeing in 2019, Mr Plahotniuc spent several years as Moldova's unofficial leader: although nominally a mere MP, he in effect controlled all government institutions. He has been charged in connection with the $1bn bank fraud, though he denies having anything to do with it. According to the Insider, an investigative website, he recently travelled to Moscow to meet an adviser of Vladimir Putin. If Mr Plahotniuc were extradited to Moldova 'in handcuffs' before the election, it would undoubtedly help PAS, says Mr Mogildea.
A decade ago, Ms Sandu was a plucky anti-corruption campaigner and opposition leader waging a quixotic struggle against Mr Plahotniuc and his fellow oligarchs. Today she is president and he is under arrest. It is an astonishing story, but that may not be enough to keep her party in power. Russia's mouthpieces, Ms Sandu says, are trying to scare Moldovans by claiming that PAS will ensnare the country in the war in Ukraine. In fact, she says, the opposite is true: electing pro-Russian parties would put Moldova at the disposal of Russia's war effort. It might also bring back the likes of Mr Shor and Mr Plahotniuc—and not in handcuffs.
Editor's note (August 7th 2025): This article originally stated that Ms Sandu was narrowly re-elected. In fact Ms Sandu won a solid 55% of the vote. The Economist regrets the error.
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