Latest news with #RuthGregory
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Hot weather boosted retail sales in June
Retail sales rose in June as the hot weather boosted fuel and supermarket sales, according to official data. Sales volumes increased by 0.9% in the month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Supermarkets reported people buying more drinks, while fuel sales were up as consumers "ventured out and about in the sunshine", the ONS said. But it said sales had fallen by 2.8% in May, which was more than it had previously estimated. After May's fall in sales, a rebound in June had been expected, but the rise was lower than many economists had forecast. Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, called June's sales increase "disappointingly small". The monthly retail sales numbers have been up and down lately, reflecting weather patterns and a late Easter. But overall, the rise in retail spending has lost momentum, with sales up just 0.2% between April and June compared with the previous three months. That ties in with a separate survey from researchers Gfk which suggests that consumer confidence is weaker than a year ago, and supports economists' views that next month's figures on economic growth will show it was lacklustre in the second quarter of this year. Sales in food stores were up 0.7% in June, the ONS said, while fuel sales rose 2.8%. "The warm weather in June helped to brighten sales, with supermarket retailers reporting stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases," said ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach. "It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine." The Met Office said that England had its warmest June on record, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole, following two heatwaves. Sales at non-food stores rose, the ONS said, with clothing benefiting from promotions and the good weather. This was partially offset by a fall in sales of household goods such as furniture. Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, said the rebound in sales at supermarkets and fashion retailers was down to shoppers entertaining at home and refreshing their wardrobes. "However, England's warmest June on record also discouraged shoppers from visiting high streets, with footfall declining and online retail sales penetration increasing," she said.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Hot weather boosted retail sales in June
Retail sales rose in June as the hot weather boosted fuel and supermarket sales, according to official data. Sales volumes increased by 0.9% in the month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Supermarkets reported people buying more drinks, while fuel sales were up as consumers "ventured out and about in the sunshine", the ONS said. But it said sales had fallen by 2.8% in May, which was more than it had previously estimated. After May's fall in sales, a rebound in June had been expected, but the rise was lower than many economists had forecast. Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, called June's sales increase "disappointingly small". The monthly retail sales numbers have been up and down lately, reflecting weather patterns and a late Easter. But overall, the rise in retail spending has lost momentum, with sales up just 0.2% between April and June compared with the previous three months. That ties in with a separate survey from researchers Gfk which suggests that consumer confidence is weaker than a year ago, and supports economists' views that next month's figures on economic growth will show it was lacklustre in the second quarter of this year. Sales in food stores were up 0.7% in June, the ONS said, while fuel sales rose 2.8%. "The warm weather in June helped to brighten sales, with supermarket retailers reporting stronger trading and an increase in drink purchases," said ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach. "It was also a good month for fuel sales as consumers ventured out and about in the sunshine." The Met Office said that England had its warmest June on record, and the second warmest for the UK as a whole, following two heatwaves. Sales at non-food stores rose, the ONS said, with clothing benefiting from promotions and the good weather. This was partially offset by a fall in sales of household goods such as furniture. Jacqueline Windsor, head of retail at PwC UK, said the rebound in sales at supermarkets and fashion retailers was down to shoppers entertaining at home and refreshing their wardrobes. "However, England's warmest June on record also discouraged shoppers from visiting high streets, with footfall declining and online retail sales penetration increasing," she said.
Times
16-07-2025
- Business
- Times
Business live: Barclays fined £42m for money-laundering failures
Ruth Gregory, Capital Economics: 'The unexpected rise in CPI inflation . . . may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in August. But it will add to the pressure on the Bank to continue to cut rates at a gradual pace.' Rob Wood, Pantheon Macroeconomics: 'Where does this leave the MPC? Inflation 150bp above target and likely to stay there for the rest of the year is hardly a green light for another rate cut. Traditionally, the MPC would look through headline inflation overshoots driven by government policy as well as energy and food prices, but we doubt they have that luxury now.' Matt Swannell, EY Item Club: 'There doesn't seem to be enough in these inflation numbers to derail an interest rate cut in August and we expect the MPC's established cut-hold tempo to continue at subsequent meetings.' The financial watchdog has fined banking giant Barclays £42 million over its 'poor handling' of financial crime risks. The Financial Conduct Authority said the fines related to separate failings linked to the WealthTek and Stunt & Co businesses. It fined Barclays Bank £39.3 million for 'failing to adequately manage money laundering risks' related to providing banking services to Stunt & Co, the firm run by the socialite James Stunt. Meanwhile, Barclays Bank UK has been fined £3.1 million after it failed to check it had enough information to understand the money laundering risk before opening a client money account for the now-collapsed wealth management firm WealthTek, the FCA said. Gilt yields have edged higher across the board after the surprise rise in inflation to 3.6 per cent in June dampened expectations of a rate cut next month. The yield on the benchmark 10-year UK government bond rose 2 basis points ot 4.65 per cent. The FTSE 100 has opened 4.5 point higher at 8,942,87, with Rio Tinto the biggest riser after its second quarter production update. The index remain below is high of 8,998.06 hit earlier this week. The pound has strengthened slightly against the dollar to $1.3401. Rio Tinto: The FTSE 100 miner reported its strongest quarter of iron production since 2018, a day after promoting Simon Trott, head of its iron ore operations, to chief executive. Production at its Pilbara mines in western Australia rose 5 per cent to 83.7 million tonnes in the second quarter, although shipments fell short of analysts' expectations, disrupted by extreme weather. In other corporate news: AstraZeneca: The pharmaceutical company said anselamimab, an experimental drug, did not meet the main goal of a late-stage study for the treatment of AL amyloidosis, a rare condition that causes a buildup of protein deposits in the body. Antofagasta: The Chilean copper miner said second-quarter production rose 3.5 per cent to almost 315,000 tonnes. Full-year guidance was reiterated. Workspace: The flexible office space provider said occupancy had fallen by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter to 82.2 per cent, with more 'large vacations' to come during the current three-month trading period. The rate of UK inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.6 per cent in June, official figures showed. The data from the Office for National Statistics is above economists' expectations for the rate to remain unchanged, and makes an interest rate cut in August less likely. Richard Heys, acting chief economist at the ONS, said: 'Inflation ticked up in June, driven mainly by motor fuel prices which fell only sligthly, compared with a much larger decrease at this time last year. 'Food price inflation has increased for the third consecutive month to its highest annual rates since February of last year.' The Bank of England expects inflation, which has accelerated since April due to higher energy prices, to peak at 3.7 per cent before falling back to its 2 per cent target. The monetary policy committee has cut interest rates twice this year, from 4.75 per cent to 4.25 per cent. Markets had been betting on another quarter-point cut next month. • Read in full: UK inflation rises to 3.6 per cent in blow for Reeves Rachel Reeves has accused over-cautious regulators of acting like 'a boot on the neck of businesses' as she announced plans to get ordinary British savers investing in shares. Addressing 350 City bosses at the annual Mansion House dinner, the chancellor set out a string of reforms designed to allow financial firms to grow faster and urged regulators 'not to bend to the temptation of excessive caution'. • Read in full: Reeves tells regulators to loosen up to boost share investment President Trump has placed a 19 per cent tax on goods imported into the United States from Indonesia under a new agreement with the country and said more deals were in the works. The pact with a minor trading partner is among the few ahead of an August 1 deadline for tariffs on most US imports, despite his team touting an effort to bring home '90 deals in 90 days'. So far, framework agreements have been reached with the UK and Vietnam, and an interim deal has been struck with China to forestall the steepest of Trump's tariffs while negotiations continue between Washington and Beijing. Trump said talks with India were moving in a similar direction. Meanwhile, while the European Union is preparing retaliatory measures should talks between Washington and its top trading partner fail.
Entrepreneur
27-06-2025
- Business
- Entrepreneur
Should You Borrow Now or Wait?
Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. You're reading Entrepreneur United Kingdom, an international franchise of Entrepreneur Media. UK interest rates remain at a 16-year high. Inflation is finally easing, but the economic outlook is still uncertain. For many small and medium-sized businesses, 2025 has become a year of financial limbo, a moment to pause and ask a critical question: Should we borrow now, or hold off and wait for better conditions? The answer isn't straightforward. On one hand, business confidence is slowly returning, with growing demand for larger loans to fund expansion, relocation, and recovery. On the other, the cost of borrowing remains steep, and lenders are still cautious about who they approve. With the landscape changing fast, knowing when to make your next move and how to prepare for it could make all the difference. Interest Rates Are Likely to Fall, But Not Dramatically After holding steady at 5.25% from August 2023 to May 2025, the Bank of England reduced the base rate to 4.25% on the 8th of May 2025. This marks the first cut in nearly a year, and a one per cent decline over the past 12 months. While this is welcome news for borrowers, experts are warning against expecting dramatic changes. Inflation remains at 3.4%, still above the banks 2% target, and future rate cuts are expected to be gradual. "We think the Bank Rate will be cut to 3.75% by mid-2026," says Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist at Capital Economics. For SMEs considering whether to borrow now or wait, this means potential savings may be marginal, especially when set against time-sensitive opportunities like growth, relocation, or acquisitions. Demand for Funding Is Starting to Rise Again Despite high rates, some businesses aren't waiting. Iwoca's Q1 2025 SME Expert Index found that 42% of brokers expect demand for loans over £100,000 to increase this year, particularly among businesses looking to expand or relocate. At the same time, net lending to SMEs fell by £1.2 billion in Q1 2025, according to the Bank of England, showing that while some SMEs are still hesitant to borrow, others are taking advantage of less competition. If rates begin to fall later this year, as many expect, lenders may receive a flood of applications. Businesses that wait too long could find themselves up against more applicants and tighter lending criteria when they finally decide to act. Expansion Opportunities Might Not Wait for Cheaper Money Some of the best growth opportunities appear in periods of uncertainty. Whether it's securing a discounted lease, acquiring a struggling competitor, or investing in undervalued assets, timing is everything, and in many cases, delaying a decision for marginally cheaper borrowing could mean missing out altogether. "A lot of SMEs wait for the 'perfect' conditions, but by the time they arrive, the opportunity's gone," says Callum Scott, Managing Director at Winchester Corporate Finance. In this context, SMEs with strong growth plans may benefit more from acting early than holding out for small rate drops. Cheaper borrowing can be helpful, but it's no substitute for momentum or market opportunity. Lenders Are Looking for Financial Discipline, Not Just Ambition Even as some lenders start to open their books again, they remain cautious. The British Business Bank reports that only 43% of smaller businesses secured external finance in 2024, down from 50% in 2023. Among those referred to alternative lenders through the UK's bank referral scheme, success rates are still very low. Meanwhile, the Federation of Small Businesses says that 1 in 3 loan applications are rejected due to poor preparation or unclear financials. Lenders want more than a promising growth story; they want to see clean, well-managed accounts and a clear repayment strategy. If you're not confident about your business's financials, from cash flow to forecasts, this may be a good time to pause, plan, and get lender-ready before you apply. That means tightening up your balance sheet, cutting reliance on overdrafts, and forecasting realistically. Being 'Funding Ready' Takes Time, Start Now Either Way Whether you're planning to borrow in the next quarter or not until 2026, the groundwork for a successful funding application needs to start well in advance. Many SMEs only start preparing when they urgently need cash, but by that point, it's often too late to tidy up the numbers or resolve red flags. Lenders want to see consistency and control. That means reducing reliance on short-term fixes like overdrafts, paying suppliers on time, staying up to date with Companies House filings, and having a clear, realistic plan for how the funding will be used and repaid. These aren't just one-off actions; they reflect how your business is run day to day. "Being lender-ready isn't about box ticking, it's about financial habits," says Callum Scott. "If your accounts are solid, your forecasts make sense, and your repayment strategy is clear, you're already ahead of most applicants." Even if you choose to hold off on applying for now, laying that financial foundation puts you in a stronger position when the time comes. It can also help you move faster when opportunities arise without scrambling to fix things at the last minute. For some businesses, the right time to borrow is now. For others, it's later. But in both cases, the smartest move is to start preparing today. Because when the moment comes, the businesses that succeed won't necessarily be the ones that waited; they'll be the ready ones.
Yahoo
18-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
UK inflation eases slightly to 3.4% as food price rises offset transport cost falls
Inflation in the UK eased slightly to 3.4% last month as a steep fall in air fares and petrol prices was offset by a jump in the cost of food. May's decline in the consumer prices index (CPI), down from the official figure of 3.5% for April, complicates the Bank of England's interest rates decision on Thursday, although policymakers are still almost certain to hold interest rates at 4.25%. Annual food inflation jumped to 4.4% in May from 3.4% in April, spurred by increases in the cost of sugar, jam and chocolate, which rose at the fastest pace since records began in 2016. Poor harvests affecting major cocoa-producers in Ghana and Ivory Coast sent chocolate prices soaring 17.7%. Ruth Gregory, the deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said rising food prices would be a concern to the Bank, especially when some staples such as meat were also pushed higher. 'The third consecutive rise in food price inflation to 4.4%, its highest since February 2024, will be a bit of a blow for the Bank as it perhaps provides a tentative sign that firms are passing on more of April's rise in national insurance contributions in their selling prices.' As well as food getting more expensive, furniture and household items also went up, increasing the rate of inflation for goods in shops from 1.7% in April to 2% last month, despite the cost of clothing and footwear declining by 0.3% over the past year. Interactive The Office for National Statistics said its measure of core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, food and alcohol, rose by 3.5% in the last year, down from 3.8%. City economists had correctly predicted last month's fall in CPI to 3.4%, which was largely owing to falls in the price of petrol and diesel, which brought down transport costs. The Bank's target for the measure is 2% and May's reading is likely to leave policymakers circumspect about accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts. The ONS said earlier this month that it had overestimated its CPI reading for April by about 0.1 percentage points because of an error that meant the effect of higher car tax bills was exaggerated. It left the original reading in place as the official figure for that month, but said it would use the correctly weighted data in future calculations. Air fares tumbled in May from an increase of 16.2% in April to -3.9% in May, although this was largely because Easter – when airlines traditionally raise fares – fell a month later this year, in April rather than March. Services inflation, which has remained high over recent years, began to slow more rapidly, down from 5.4% to 4.7%. The Bank has resisted making steep cuts to interest rates while services inflation has remained sticky. Pressure has increased on the central bank to cut the cost of borrowing, after recent data showed the economy has slowed. Wages growth fell and unemployment increased in the February-to-April quarter, while the economy shrank in April. Monica George Michail, an associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said inflation was likely to remain above 3% for the rest of the year amid persistent wage growth and the inflationary effects from higher government spending. 'Additionally, the current tensions in the Middle East are causing greater economic uncertainty. We therefore expect the Bank of England to keep rates on hold this Thursday and implement just one further cut this year,' she said. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said there was 'more to do' to bring down inflation and support households hit by the high cost of living. She is keen for the Bank to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts to ease monthly mortgage costs and reduce the cost of borrowing for businesses. Financial markets still expect two rate cuts to 3.75% by the end of this year and several more next year as inflation is expected to drift back to 2%, although the Bank has been reticent to indicate where interest rates may settle. Reeves said: 'We took the necessary choices to stabilise the public finances and get inflation under control after the double-digit increases we saw under the previous government, but we know there's more to do. 'Last week we extended the £3 bus fare cap, funded free school meals for over half a million more children and are delivering our plans for free breakfast clubs for every child in the country.' The shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, blamed Labour for inflation remaining above the Bank's target. 'Labour's choices to tax jobs and ramp up borrowing are killing growth and stoking inflation, making everyday essentials more expensive,' he said. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
