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Time of India
2 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Why Trump says the US jobs report is 'rigged': How the numbers are actually calculated
US jobs report controversy explained: What causes monthly employment data revisions. (AP Photo) US President Donald Trump has criticised the latest US jobs report, calling it "rigged" on his social media platform, Truth Social. The controversy arose after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised the employment numbers for May and June downward by 258,000 jobs combined. These revisions sparked debate over the accuracy and reliability of the monthly jobs data. The revisions showed that the US added 19,000 jobs in May and 14,000 in June, rather than the initially reported figures of 158,000 and 144,000 respectively. Economists quickly pointed out that such revisions are routine, reflecting updated survey data from businesses that respond late. The president's comments have raised concerns about politicising a key economic indicator. How the jobs report is compiled Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases an "employment situation" report that includes data on employment, wages, and hours worked. The report is based primarily on two surveys: an "establishment survey" of approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies, and a "household survey" of individuals about labour force participation, employment, and unemployment. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Sore Knees? These Foods Could Be Your Natural Solution Undo The establishment survey covers various sectors of the economy and is considered the main source for monthly payroll employment estimates. The establishment survey collects data from employers during the week that includes the 12th of the month. However, not all businesses submit their information immediately. As a result, the BLS publishes initial estimates which are subject to revisions in the following two months, once additional data is received. This process ensures that the employment numbers become more accurate over time. Why revisions are routine and necessary According to the BLS, the initial employment figures are revised twice in the succeeding two months to incorporate late survey responses and to adjust seasonal factors. This means that changes, whether upwards or downwards, are normal and expected. Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told Yahoo that the recent revisions, although large, fall within the BLS's confidence interval of plus or minus 136,000 jobs per month. For example, the May payroll data was revised down by 125,000 jobs to 19,000, and June by 133,000 to 14,000. Sweet also noted that these revisions are not significantly larger than those seen historically. Larger revisions tend to occur during times of economic disruption, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic. Month Initially Reported Jobs Gained Revised Jobs Gained Net Revision (Jobs Lost) May 158,000 19,000 139000 June 144,000 14,000 130000 Political reactions and impact on trust President Trump's comments on the jobs report followed the release of the revised figures. He stated on Truth Social, "Last weeks Job's Report was RIGGED," as reported by Yahoo. The remarks come amid ongoing political debates over economic performance and data transparency. William Beach, McEntarfer's predecessor as BLS commissioner, said in a Yahoo interview that the commissioner does not handle the preparation or estimation of job numbers, but the damage to trust is done. He warned that it may take time to restore confidence in the figures. Declining survey response rates One challenge facing the BLS is the declining response rate from businesses to the establishment survey, which has raised concerns about the reliability of initial estimates. Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco reported in March 2025 that despite lower response rates, the incoming data does not show increased noise or uncertainty compared to the past. Ryan Sweet said the lower survey participation means the initial jobs estimate is less clear than before but stressed this is not a fault of the BLS. The agency continues to adjust its methodology to maintain the accuracy of the labour market data. Annual benchmark revisions and past controversies Beyond monthly updates, the BLS performs annual benchmark revisions based on wage and employment data from state unemployment insurance records. One such revision in August 2024 revealed the US had 818,000 fewer jobs in the previous 12 months than initially reported, a figure later revised to 598,000 fewer jobs. President Trump has referenced these annual revisions as evidence of data manipulation, though economists explain that such adjustments are a normal part of maintaining accurate economic statistics. Why jobs data revisions matter While revisions may cause confusion, experts emphasise their importance for long-term economic stability. Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute, wrote in a blog post that transparent revision processes contribute to the reliability of US economic data, as quoted by Yahoo. Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative and former Biden official, noted that large revisions often coincide with unusual labour market conditions, such as the post-pandemic labour force re-entry or economic uncertainty from tariffs and immigration changes. The recent two-month revision, the largest since 1968 excluding recession periods, may indicate strains in the US economy, reinforcing the need for cautious interpretation of initial jobs reports. TOI Education is on WhatsApp now. Follow us here . Ready to navigate global policies? Secure your overseas future. Get expert guidance now!
Axios
4 days ago
- Business
- Axios
The U.S. economy depends on the rich. That could hurt the labor market
Spending is being held up by the wealthy, while consumption from middle and lower income groups continues to fade. Why it matters: The tale of two economies, also called a K-shaped recovery, is taking shape before tariffs have even taken effect, which could further pressure lower-income spenders, and potentially, the labor market. Catch up quick: The top 20% of earners now make up over half of consumer spending, according to Moody's. Meantime, spending from middle and lower income consumers has flatlined to kick off 2025, roughly in line with inflation. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of GDP, meaning that it largely determines whether our economy is growing or slowing. But the rich are doing most of the spending, making consumption overall look resilient, when in reality it's a small group propping up the data. What they're saying:"The lower-income households are struggling, and you also see that on the corporate side, so those who serve that segment don't have pricing power," Mohamed El-Erian, the former PIMCO CEO and current president of Queen's College at Cambridge University, tells Axios. Be smart: It's not just wealthy consumers faring better. Bigger businesses are also outperforming. But small businesses are the largest employers, so if they struggle, that could lead to bigger cracks in an already stumbling labor market. Meantime, the largest corporations that drive the stock market are expected to be resilient, but they're not the ones generating the most jobs. The intrigue: Americans with less money are also less likely to benefit from the wealth effect: the rally in stock prices that fuels spending among those who own stocks (people who tend to already be wealthy). That wealth effect is also a risk, according to Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, since the rich could slow down on spending if stock prices falter, which may be coming this fall.
Daily Mail
09-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
Report: US dollar has worst half-year since the 70s
America's currency just had its worst half-year performance since the Nixon era. That could mean higher prices for everyday Americans. The dollar dropped more than 10 percent against major global currencies from January to June, according to the US Dollar Index. 'A depreciation in the US dollar is inflationary ,' Ryan Sweet, the chief US economist for Oxford Economics, told Newsweek . 'The depreciation in the dollar increases the risks that tariffs boost consumer prices more than anticipated this summer and into the fall.' Take, for example, the cost of car parts from best-selling Japanese brands like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. When the dollar weakens against the Japanese Yen, it takes more dollars to buy the same part from an overseas supplier. That can push up Americans' repair bills, parts prices, and insurance. It also increases manufacturing costs in the US, where many factories depend on globally sourced components. Similar price pressures are showing up in other industries that rely on imports — like food, electronics, and clothing. Coffee from Colombia, apparel from Vietnam, and even roses from Ecuador — all products that have nearly no US manufacturing — can become more expensive and trickle down to consumers at the checkout line. Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro, told there is a mix of good and bad with the dollar's dip. 'A falling dollar can be a good thing for large multinational companies, as it boosts their earnings in non-dollar currencies,' he said. 'However, importers can struggle as it now takes more dollars to buy the same goods as before. For these reasons, many companies look to hedge their currency exposure — especially in volatile environments.' More than a quarter are pulling back from US stocks and shifting into gold and cryptocurrency — two assets often viewed as hedges against inflation and currency risk. Younger investors were especially bullish on gold, the survey found. Trust in the US market is also starting to slip from all-time highs. The dollar has traditionally been seen as safe haven currency for international investors. But rising national debt, increased inflation, higher interest rates , a wobbly political landscape, and a focus on US manufacturing has chipped away at its long-term dominance. Some creditors are even worried the US might not be able to service some of its debts. But top White House advisors say the dollar's long-term strength has come with tradeoffs for US jobs.
Daily Mail
08-07-2025
- Business
- Daily Mail
US dollar in danger after worst half-year since the 1970s... here's how it'll shrink your wallet
America's currency just had its worst half-year performance since the Nixon era. That could mean higher prices for everyday Americans. The dollar dropped more than 10 percent against major global currencies from January to June, according to the US Dollar Index. It's the worst first-half showing since the index began tracking the greenback in 1973. For decades, the dollar has served as the world's financial safe haven. Economists warn the weaker dollar could keep inflation stubbornly high, even as consumer prices cool in other areas of the economy. 'A depreciation in the US dollar is inflationary,' Ryan Sweet, the chief US economist for Oxford Economics, told Newsweek. 'The depreciation in the dollar increases the risks that tariffs boost consumer prices more than anticipated this summer and into the fall.' Take, for example, the cost of car parts from best-selling Japanese brands like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. When the dollar weakens against the Japanese Yen, it takes more dollars to buy the same part from an overseas supplier. That can push up Americans' repair bills, parts prices, and insurance. It also increases manufacturing costs in the US, where many factories depend on globally sourced components. Similar price pressures are showing up in other industries that rely on imports — like food, electronics, and clothing. Coffee from Colombia, apparel from Vietnam, and even roses from Ecuador — all products that have nearly no US manufacturing — can become more expensive and trickle down to consumers at the checkout line. Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro, told there is a mix of good and bad with the dollar's dip. 'A falling dollar can be a good thing for large multinational companies, as it boosts their earnings in non-dollar currencies,' he said. 'However, importers can struggle as it now takes more dollars to buy the same goods as before. For these reasons, many companies look to hedge their currency exposure — especially in volatile environments.' While a weaker dollar may help exporters compete abroad, it's also reshaping how everyday investors move the money in their portfolios. A new survey from trading platform eToro found that 58 percent of American retail investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to the dollar's decline. More than a quarter are pulling back from US stocks and shifting into gold and cryptocurrency — two assets often viewed as hedges against inflation and currency risk. Younger investors were especially bullish on gold, the survey found. Trust in the US market is also starting to slip from all-time highs. The dollar has traditionally been seen as safe haven currency for international investors. But rising national debt, increased inflation, higher interest rates, a wobbly political landscape, and a focus on US manufacturing has chipped away at its long-term dominance. Some creditors are even worried the US might not be able to service some of its debts. But top White House advisors say the dollar's long-term strength has come with tradeoffs for US jobs. Vice President JD Vance has frequently said that dollar dominance has had the reverse impact on countries that want to buy goods built in the US. A Ford F-150 built in Michigan, for instance, costs significantly more for a customer in Japan than for one in the States. 'If you want to employ a lot of people in manufacturing, you need to make it easier for us to export and not just import what we need,' Vance told Politico.
Euronews
25-06-2025
- Business
- Euronews
Oil prices rise despite fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel
Investors kept an eye on the Middle East on Wednesday as a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel appeared to hold after initial shakiness. Both sides claimed victory; Iran's president said Israel had suffered a 'historic punishment', while Israel's prime minister argued the offensive had removed 'the Iranian nuclear threat'. A new US intelligence report nonetheless found that Tehran's nuclear programme had only been set back by a few months by US strikes. Washington denied the findings of the leaked report. Early in Europe, Brent crude had risen around 1.15% to $67.91 a barrel, while WTI was 1.21% higher at $65.15. The prices suggest the market has still not fully calmed after the conflict in the Middle East, with investors continuing to monitor the shaky ceasefire. US President Trump rebuked both countries for violating the announced ceasefire on Tuesday. 'Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I've never seen before, the biggest load that we've seen,' he said. On his social media platform, Truth Social, he wrote: 'Israel, do not drop those bombs. If you do, it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home, now!' Trump claimed that neither Iran nor Israel "know what the f*** they're doing". Stocks, meanwhile, rose modestly on Wednesday. Dow Jones futures rose 0.06% to 43,452.00, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.05% to 6,149.25. In Asian trading, the Shanghai Composite index climbed 0.44% to 3,435.60, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.31% to 38,910.93, Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumped 0.78% to 24,364.79, while South Korea's Kospi was almost flat, rising 0.01% to 3,104.20. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 notched up 0.09% to 8,563.20. The US Dollar Index was up 0.13% at 97.98 although the currency has still failed to recover from losses seen earlier this year. The euro rose less than 1% against the dollar while the Japanese Yen dropped around 0.12% against its US safe-haven alternative. 'The situation in the Middle East is fluid. While the downside risks have subsided, the situation can change quickly and the balance of risks remains weighted toward higher oil prices,' said Ryan Sweet, Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, on Tuesday.
