31-07-2025
The tropics seem sluggish, but could August bring the first hurricane of the 2025 season?
On average, 86 percent of all named tropical systems in the Atlantic occur after Aug. 1, and the first hurricane doesn't form until Aug. 11.
Boston Globe
We're still a ways away from reaching peak heating of sea-surface temperatures, and a steep warming trend may be setting the stage for an explosive August in terms of hurricanes, especially since the Main Development Region — a vast stretch of the Atlantic from the west coast of Northern Africa to the Caribbean islands — has experienced an increase in temperatures over the last several weeks.
Should temperatures continue to rise and wind shear be average or lower, then we could be in for an incredibly active August and September. Hurricane season typically peaks around Sept. 10.
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Tracking the development of storm development, the Main Development Region of the Atlantic tropics is warmer than average.
NOAA/University of Arizona
'The Week 2 look on ensembles is about as favorable as you will ever see upper winds in the basin this time of year,' said Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeling expert at the University of Miami. 'Still, shear is just one part of the equation, and this time of year, moisture and stability can hold things back and prevent development even with low shear. Those issues seem prevalent already this year.'
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So far this year, the Atlantic tropics have produced three tropical storms over the past two months, and we are pacing well ahead of schedule.
Although a hurricane has yet to form, that doesn't mean impacts haven't been felt. The last storm to develop, Tropical Storm Chantal on July 4, dumped flooding rain over the Carolinas, leading to flood emergencies and an estimated $4 billion in damages.
Floodwaters rush over a spillway at Thagard Lake in Carthage, N.C., in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Chantal on July 7, 2025.
SEAN RAYFORD/NYT
The National Hurricane Center has forecast another unusually busy hurricane season, which stretches through the end of November. But they don't think it will be as chaotic as
NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin.
Boston Globe
Rapid intensification
Just as
Rapid intensification is a term that is becoming more widely used when discussing hurricane strength, naturally, because consistently warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures have provided fuel for storms to explode. To reach this feat, a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds must increase by at least 35 miles per hour within 24 hours.
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About 80 percent of major hurricanes undergo rapid intensification throughout development. The combination of low wind shear and plenty of hot, moist air from the warm ocean water is like flicking a match onto gasoline — the atmosphere ignites. As oceans continue to warm, the fuel source will just continue to grow more potent for storms to explode.
Rapid intensification is more common than you think, especially with global warming.
Climate Central
And since the early 1980s, a tropical storm or hurricane is five times more likely to rapidly intensify, growing to one in three storms now likely to see an explosive build-up.
That brings us to what climatology tells us and what might be coming down the pike. August sees a massive leap in rapid intensification episodes compared to July — quadrupling in number.
If the chances and frequency of rapidly intensifying hurricanes keep increasing, then naturally so does the chance for landfall of such storms at higher strength.
The percentage of all Atlantic rapid intensification events throughout each month in hurricane season.
CSU
Rapid intensifying storms make hurricane forecasting so vital, especially during the height of hurricane season, ranging from August through October, and peaking on Sept. 10.
Storms that erupt near the coast dramatically decrease warning time to the public, making the need for the National Hurricane Center and expertise in tropical forecasting more important now more than ever.
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